September WrapOctober 1st, 2012 at 3:49 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Here’s some pretty fall colors from Jack Martin near New Richmond. The fall colors are going to be a few days earlier than last year. I don’t have the official totals yet, so this is preliminary. The average temperature for Sept. 2012 was 0.2 deg. warmer than average…so essentially average…and that’s after August was exactly at average. The average high temperature in September was 1.2 degrees warmer than average and the average low temperature was 1.0 degree cooler than average (lots of clear skies, so a little warmer in the day and a little cooler at night. Some areas north of G.R. had their first frost. Rainfall for G.R. was 1.97″ and that’s only 46% of average (the Sept. 30-year average has a few very wet Septembers factored in, 11.85″ in 1986, 9.52″ in 1981 and 7.49″ in 1988). Holland (3.20″) got three times as much rain as Muskegon (1.03″). Sept. brought a whopping 74% of possible sunshine and it was relatively calm, with an average wind speed of 7.4 mph.
The models all agree on the coming cool air for next Friday and beyond. The GFS model has nothing warmer than 58 for highs from Friday to Monday. The European takes our 850mb temperature to -4.8 by next Sun. AM – that’s getting very close to a snow mix (which is still questionable with the warm lake west of us). The European would only give us highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and maybe near 50 on Sunday. We’ll probably have a chance of waterspouts on the Great Lakes again Friday to Monday. The NAM (caribou) gives G.R. highs of 68.4 today (Mon.) and 72.7 on Tuesday. The GFS has 67 on Monday and 73 on Tuesday. and the general NAM has 69 today and 71 tomorrow. It’s already down to 36 at Ludington and 37 at Big Rapids at 3 AM and there is a little patchy fog out there now.
Topsy-turvey temperatures in the Plains. The high temperature Sunday was 86 at Fargo ND and Aberdeen SD. The high was only 67 at Memphis, Little Rock and Shreveport LA. The East was also cool with highs of 59 at Boston, 56 at Syracuse and 69 down to Florence SC. The South has had some heavy rain. Check out these 48-hour totals: 10.72″ Nacogdoches TX, 5.99″ Monroe LA, 4.5″ Tyler TX, 4.34″ Greenwood MS, 4″ San Angelo TX, 3.54″ Dallas, 3.29″ Waco TX.
ADD: The GFS is showing snow for N. Minnesota – up to 10″ just west of International Falls later this week. This may be overdone and too far south…but some accumulation is likely and I’ll bet north of the border in Ontario they are going to get some +6″ snowfalls. This is cool air coming down later this week into the weekend.