September Wrap

October 1st, 2012 at 3:49 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Here’s some pretty fall colors from Jack Martin near New Richmond.  The fall colors are going to be a few days earlier than last year.  I don’t have the official totals yet, so this is preliminary.  The average temperature for Sept. 2012 was 0.2 deg. warmer than average…so essentially average…and that’s after August was exactly at average. The average high temperature in September was 1.2 degrees warmer than average and the average low temperature was 1.0 degree cooler than average (lots of clear skies, so a little warmer in the day and a little cooler at night.  Some areas north of G.R. had their first frost.  Rainfall for G.R. was 1.97″ and that’s only 46% of average (the Sept. 30-year average has a few very wet Septembers factored in, 11.85″ in 1986, 9.52″ in 1981 and 7.49″ in 1988).  Holland (3.20″) got three times as much rain as Muskegon (1.03″).  Sept. brought a whopping 74% of possible sunshine and it was relatively calm, with an average wind speed of 7.4 mph.

The models all agree on the coming cool air for next Friday and beyond.  The GFS model has nothing warmer than 58 for highs from Friday to Monday.  The European takes our 850mb temperature to -4.8 by next Sun. AM – that’s getting very close to a snow mix (which is still questionable with the warm lake west of us).  The European would only give us highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday and maybe near 50 on Sunday.  We’ll probably have a chance of waterspouts on the Great Lakes again Friday to Monday.  The NAM (caribou) gives G.R. highs of 68.4 today (Mon.) and 72.7 on Tuesday.  The GFS has 67 on Monday and 73 on Tuesday. and the general NAM has 69 today and 71 tomorrow.  It’s already down to 36 at Ludington and 37 at Big Rapids at 3 AM and there is a little patchy fog out there now.

Topsy-turvey temperatures in the Plains.  The high temperature Sunday was 86 at Fargo ND and Aberdeen SD.  The high was only 67 at Memphis, Little Rock and Shreveport LA.  The East was also cool with highs of 59 at Boston, 56 at Syracuse and 69 down to Florence SC.   The South has had some heavy rain.  Check out these 48-hour totals:  10.72″ Nacogdoches TX, 5.99″ Monroe LA, 4.5″ Tyler TX, 4.34″ Greenwood MS, 4″ San Angelo TX, 3.54″ Dallas, 3.29″ Waco TX.

ADD:  The GFS is showing snow for N. Minnesota – up to 10″ just west of International Falls later this week.  This may be overdone and too far south…but some accumulation is likely and I’ll bet north of the border in Ontario they are going to get some +6″ snowfalls.  This is cool air coming down later this week into the weekend.

45 Responses to “September Wrap”

  1. Breckenridge we had an average temperature of 61.0 degrees which was +0.4 for the month. The warmest temperatue was 86.0 on the 12th with the coldest being 37.7 on the 24th. Rainfall was 1.30 inches which was -2.45 from normal. We recorded 10 days with measurable rainfall of which 3 where over 1/10 and 0 over 1 inch. The peak wind gust was 28mph on the 8th, at 2.9mph average for the month September was the 2nd least windy month this year. With zero 90 degree days our season ends with 18 days of 90 or higher.

  2. Rumrunner says:

    Great start to autumn.

  3. Rumrunner says:

    Holy cats, ever stare at a word so long you are convinced it’s misspelled? Just did that with autumn. LOL

  4. DF (SE Mich) says:

    The tree colors are fantastic so far!

  5. fixxxer says:

    its all downhill from here….

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      as Jack might say…..” for it’s a long, long time, from May to December, and the days go byyyy,…….and I haven’t got time for any more of this blog stuff….have a good one, fixxxxxxxer! :-)

    2. Jack says:

      Hey Fixxxer, I didn’t Know You Were Into ,DOWNHILL Skiing… Lol….. :-)

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Lmao!

      2. Rumrunner says:

        I go out west once or so a year… Lets go Fix. Nothing like some good ole mountain runs to make you feel alive!

        1. fixxxer says:

          My wife and i will be visiting cali this winter sometime.

        2. Rumrunner says:

          Awesome! There are some great mountains out there. Mt Baldy or China peak would be a sweet choice.

  6. Yup (Grandville) says:

    Time for stout beers, and bourbon.

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Scotch too.

      1. Jack says:

        Cue: George Thorogood..I drink Alone… ;-)

  7. Kimoeagle says:

    BTW, looks like precip coming up from the South, and the barometer is falling once again….currently 29.88″ in NE IN…….

  8. Cort S. says:

    Starting today, they’re moving GOES-14 to 75 degrees W longitude over the next 33 days and moving GOES-13 to a storage spot while they diagnose its noise problem.

    http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1202&MediaTypeID=3&ResourceID=104699

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Bring on Winter – yes, SNOW and COLD! The sooner the better.

    1. Jack says:

      Bite Your Tongue !!! ;-)

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Rocky I mean RJ?

  10. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    I agree with ya rocky bring on the snow!!! Looking at some long range models it is very possible we could be looking at our first snow by the end of this month :)

    1. Jack says:

      Oh…..sNOw….!! Winter Sucks…!!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Not to worry – I just bought a snowmobile jacket; and have a helmet on order. That, combined with the sled – are guaranteed to make it be snowless this winter :-(

    2. fixxxer says:

      Lol you like disapointment dont ya jordan?

  11. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    According to CPC, October looks like a colder than average month. Although their 3 month outlook still looks warm.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      October looked warm according to them two weeks ago.

      1. Cort S. says:

        They probably figured that this cold longwave trough, coming up for the weekend and beyond, is going to send us into a temperature deficit that may be hard to recover from:
        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

        But there’s still a chance for an Indian Summer to come around in the latter half of the month to bring the month back up to normal. They’re putting the chance of a below-normal October is ≤50%, but that’s the more likely option compared to near- or above-.
        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif

        1. Rumrunner says:

          So it there is a 50-50 shot of a below normal october? LOL

        2. Cort S. says:

          Between a 40-50% chance of below normal here. And it would follow that there’s about a 33-ish% chance of near normal, and less than a 33% chance of above-normal.

          “EC” on that map stands for “equal chances,” which are 33% for above-, 33% for near-, and 33% for below-normal.

          That’s how long-range predictions work. It’s like expressing the probabilities associated with a weighted pair of dice, except you have to make an educated guess where the weights are and how heavy they are (by looking at things like ENSO, NAO, AO, etc. and their resulting teleconnections). Long range forecasts are expressed probabilistically (though some long ranges like Bill’s seasonal forecasts are expressed deterministically, where you make a definitive prediction and you are either 100% right or 100% wrong). Our forecast skill in the long range is judged over the course of many seasons and predictions. The trick to judging our skill at long range forecasts is to identify how good we are at finding the “signal” (dice weights / teleconnections) among the “noise” (inherent randomness of the dice / chaotic atmosphere).

          For those curious, the October outlook discussion is posted here:
          http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

  12. joanne says:

    Long range predictions have us at above normal temps this winter with near or below average snow. I bet we are going to get a nice early cold snap with some heavy snow. I think the amounts are going to be above average in most areas, but I’m fearful that we may end up with the split in the precipitation going right over us like last year.
    Bill, any word on your winter forecast yet? I bet Bill will forecast slightly below normal temps, but close to normal with near 80″ of snow for the Grand Rapids area, with a chance to hit 90″ if the lake effect pushes Westerly rather than NW. Just a hunch. :)

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Just keep the freezing rain away from here is all I ask.

    2. Katie in Kentwood says:

      I wish lol

  13. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Is there any snow for Traverse City this weekend?

  14. big Daddy BC says:

    So we’re essentially .7 degrees above the 100 year average then, and if the long range forecast has us above average this winter, I wonder how far above average the entire year will be. N.A. is certain to break records.

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      Have a look at the national picture for January through August. WOW!

      The first is temp. The second is precip. I can’t believe this isn’t a thread all by itself. It really shows the bias in reporting on this station.

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Nationaltrank/201201-201208.gif

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Nationalprank/201201-201208.gif

      1. Jack says:

        Cue: J.D. Souther….You’re Only Lonely…. :-(

        1. Skot says:

          …or Roy Orbison, “Only the Lonely”.

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        I keep forgetting, are you guys pushing GLOBAL warming, or NATIONAL warming?

        1. Rumrunner says:

          Nice! True story though. BC… tell us, how was the rest of the world?

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          The first post was global. We’re .7 degrees above the hundred year average. The second post was national. Still confused?
          The only one pushing global warming is nature.

          Cue: Ray Charles…Hit the Road, Jack…

        3. Jack says:

          big Duddy… My Theme Song Is….. Cue: Rolling Stones…Jumpin JACK Flash…. Try Again… ;-)

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          Oh, so now you’re calling me Big Duddy? Have I ever even spoken to you, Jack Ass?

        5. Jack says:

          If the Shoe Fits, and, Hee- Haw…… :-)

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures have held steady for over 10 years now:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif (see 2002 to present)

          Even Hansen admits it:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UYrjM0rou3M

          Antarctic sea ice extent at near a historic high: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

          Wow! Look at the temperatures at Vostok, Antarctica: http://www.wunderground.com/history/wmo/89606/2013/5/8/MonthlyHistory.html

  15. Barbara Egeler-Bailey says:

    The lakes are so low that yesterday when I went kayaking by the Mac bridge, the waves broke much earlier than usual and swamped me and my kayak. That usually doesn’t happen when the lake is higher.

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