The Coming Chill

October 2nd, 2012 at 2:36 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Click on the image or click here to enlarge.  This is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 7-11.  We have a really blast of fall coming with high temperatures crashing into the low-mid 50s.  The GFS plot gives G.R. just 47 on Sunday. with 850 mb temperatures (about a mile above ground) in the low 20s!  That would set up a huge contrast with the 63-degree water of Lake Michigan.  Look for lake-effect showers and the possibility of waterspouts over the lake and some mixed ice pellets.  I’ll update more later on this evening/tonight…but it’s going to be chilly for the ArtPrize winners announcement party Friday evening and the coming weekend into early next week.

Winter has come to Mt. Washington NH.   Look at the snow that the GFS model is printing out from far NW Minnesota into Ontario.  That’s 18″ north of Lake of the Woods!  Also, Brian Duey sent me this picture of the Northern Lights in Howard City on 9/30.

76 Responses to “The Coming Chill”

  1. Mindy says:

    Early Snow, WARM WINTER?

    1. fixxxer says:

      Hope its a warm winter.

      1. Allegan Chess Player says:

        I AGREE FIXXER–WARM SUMMER!! :-)

        1. Allegan Chess Player says:

          MAKE THAT–WARM WINTER–OOPPSS :-(

  2. Jack says:

    Huh, Can’t Beat Those REALLY Blasts.. Lol….. ;-)

  3. Eric (SE Mason County) says:

    Bring on the snow!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK ON!

  4. WMUPilot90 says:

    Looks like a crummy day on Saturday for WMU’s homecoming :-/

  5. INDY says:

    Hey Bill I ran into Terri down at Art Prize I Told her to tell u INDY says hi!! INDYY…

  6. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Bring on a Snowy snowy winter :) Accuweather’s winter forecast update is tomorrow for anyone wondering but knowing them I’m sure they will put us in the warm area with no snow LOL they should just team up with another weather center or change their name perhaps to U>S weather or something like that because they are never ACCUrate LOL!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      *U.S*

    2. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      They probably will, since many of the others are saying the same thing. Warmer than normal with equal chance of precip.

  7. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    If only we lived in the western UP:

    “AS FOR HOW MUCH SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED…IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE
    SNOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE W HALF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…AND AGAIN
    SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 06Z GFS WAS A BIT MORE LIMITING WITH THE
    AMOUNTS…WITH THE BEST AREA OF SNOW GROWTH NEAR THE TOP…OR JUST
    ABOVE CLOUD LEVEL. THE 12Z RUN STILL INDICATES AROUND AN INCH OR
    SNOW POSSIBLE WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY STICK ACROSS MAINLY GRASSY
    SURFACES…”

    1. Nathan says:

      Yes, but they dont have a fall. They go from summer to winter with a two week color show!

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      As for North Dakota too it is possible they might even see near blizzard conditions WOW!

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=87819&source=0

      1. Rumrunner says:

        That doesn’t surprise me. I was stationed up in Grand Forks for a while and dealt with the cold and snow. “I kinda miss 20-30 below” said no one ever.

    3. Jerry hoag says:

      Ummmmmm if I may, they need to do a spell or grammar check before posting!! Because if you read/look closly they say, run indicates around an inch or snow on the ground, do you see the error? LOL!!

  8. Nathan says:

    i thought Wednesday was supposed to be 80!!!!! Ohhh well….

  9. fixxxer says:

    Ive learned what they forecast is usually the total opppsite. They said average/cool summer and it was hot as heck. They say a warm fall & winter which probably means down right chilly.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Look at this thread: http://blogs.woodtv.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=45456&action=edit from May 21. I wrote: “I’m on board with the summer being a little bit warmer than average.” We had the 2nd warmest video ever, and then in August we had exactly average temperatures.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Sorry but August was not average. Let’s not forget that average has changed and is now .5 degrees. It’s been adjusted because of climate change, therefore August was well above the actual average. You’ve been predicting cold every season since I started following this blog. January – August were the hottest eight months in history. You certainly didn’t predict that.

        1. Mike M. says:

          We can predict with 100% accuracy that you will still be a mouth-breathing, booger-eating moron next year big duddy. That’s a lock.

        2. bobcat says:

          Average is now .5 degrees? In August? Yup, there’s a brilliant one! And ‘it’s been adjusted (too that) because of climate change’? Too funny!

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Talk about clever, Bobcat. You got me….BAD!!! Wow. LOL
          .5 degrees higher, Princess.

      2. joanne says:

        Bill Steffen Says: April 24th, 2012
        “To sum it up…the pattern will be cooler than last year and cooler relative to average for the Great Lakes to Northeast for the summer and fall.”

        That’s Bill’s direct quote for his summer forecast made in April. I would post the link, but Bill isn’t allowing it for some reason!!!!

        Now you’re sounding like Mitt Romney. Back and freaking forth!

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          First, the period from August 1 to November 30 was exactly average here in G.R. Since I said “Great Lakes and Northeast”, I looked at Boston. They had a cooler than average fall (2 or 3 fall months were cooler than average).

          Second, go to this blog entry from last May: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2012/05/21/japanese-model-seasonal-forecasts/

          You’ll read this: “The Japanese model was one of the few model forecasts that predicted a milder winter for last winter. It’s got us a little warmer than average for the summer (I’m on board with the summer being a little bit warmer than average) and it’s forecasting a lot of cold air over North America next winter.”

  10. INDY says:

    Hey Bill TWC wan’ts to name winter storms really, I and Kyle started that 2 years ago on your blogg they are a little off!! WE ARE BILL’S BLOGG !! INDYY..

  11. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Bring on the SNOW and COLD!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol who said anything about snow? Quit jumping ahead so far. My bet for the first snow is november.

      1. Skot says:

        Fixx almighty said….

    2. Allegan Chess Player says:

      NO THANK YOU–DON’T NEED COLD AND SNOW…BRRR :-(

    1. kevin. w says:

      The end of a long strong la nina pattern…but this winter will have some suprise the way I’m looking at the pattern shapin’ up.

  12. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    A warm day Thursday, and then whewwww…. It will only be in the low 50′s for Friday! I like how you used that enthusiasm Bill. :)

  13. James Smith says:

    when are you going to be getting some measurable rain fall??

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      As of 8 PM, we’ve had 0.12″ in G.R. and 0.13″ in Holland. It’s not a lot, but it is measurable rain. With the high humidity, what we get can soak in.

  14. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    I predict this winter – same as last.
    YAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      While it certainly looks cold – I don’t think it looks “brutal” (Joe’s words) – it looks “normal”. We SHOULD have temps below freezing in Dec/Jan/Feb.

  15. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Wow winter storm watch for northern MN for as much as 10″ of snow to fal!!!

  16. Terry says:

    Starting this week we are finally selling a decent amount of roof & gutter heating cable. People are finally remembering that it does snow alot in the USA! After the last non-winter, we haven’t sold much for a year, similar to the 1990′s. Those days are long gone we are back to snowy winters!

    1. fixxxer says:

      so you can see the future huh? ;)

      1. Skot says:

        as can you??

    2. Right Terry! One warm winter does not change the course of the past 70 winters!

  17. Taco Boy says:

    Next month Michigan will have snow on the ground ….Snow and turkey.

    1. fixxxer says:

      or just turkey.

  18. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    Can’t wait for the snow to start! I have a feeling based on this early-season snow not too far from us, as well as the extremely late starts to winter the last few years, that we may be in for some surprise winter weather early this season.

    Also, has anyone appreciated the leaves this fall as much as I have? I’ve seen some of the most beautiful colors I can remember in the last week. Anyone near the Rockford area should take a drive down 11 or 12 Mile and Wolven Ave….absolutely stunning color.

  19. Jerry hoag says:

    My prediction for the first snow fall is January 19th of 2019!! LOL LOL LOL…….really I believe it will be October 23rd of this year! We will see..

    1. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

      I sure hope you are rigt about OCT 23. I would love to have some early snow this year followed by the lakes freezing over early, this way I can enjoy outdoor activities more than last year.

      1. Rumrunner says:

        Cold cold cold… Let s ice fish!!!!

  20. sara says:

    Hey Bill! When is your winter forecast coming out?

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      sara I was just looking it didn’t come out until Oct.28 last year sO I wouldn’t look for it at least until Oct. 20

      1. sara says:

        Ok…Thanks!

  21. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Just as I thought accuweather put us in the below normal snowfall with warm conditions all winter long see that’s why you don’t listen to accuweather!

    1. fixxxer says:

      other people have said the same jordan. it’s not just them. don’t be shocked to see a repeat of last winter.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Or don’t be shocked to see a winter with its own identity. Since last winter was anomalously warm and uneventful, I’d say it’s statistically improbable to get a repeat of that in any given year.

        Still, there’s still a chance that it could be a repeat. So don’t give up hope.

        1. fixxxer says:

          no offense but i don’t know why you even bother replying to me when all you do is contradict everything i say.

          hey bill shoot me an email, haven’t heard from you in a long while… whats the deal?

        2. Cort S. says:

          Not meaning to contradict you at every turn, just throwing my perspective into the conversation. Can you see where I’m coming from though, logically? Note that I do wish you the most pleasant of winters. :)

        3. Yup (Grandville) says:

          Fixxxer…. hahaah! Dude, the two posts you made above were kinda contradictory. Come on man :) LOL.

          I’m actually hoping for a warm winter again. My gas bill sure was sweet last season!

        4. A contradiction would be to say – no – it’s going to be the opposite of last winter. Cort is simply saying it’s unlikely to repeat such a warm & out of the ordinary winter. (Anomaly).

      2. Skot says:

        Fixxx “IS” contradictory Mr. Told-ya-so. Then turns around and says told-ya-so,

    2. Kathy says:

      Accuweather did not put us in the belove normal snowfall with warm conditions all winter long…what they actually said was “Meanwhile, near-normal snow is predicted for the typical Great Lakes snow belts. The warmer-than-normal water of the Great Lakes will set the stage for the lake-effect snow machine to turn on as any cold waves arrive”.

      And to all of you who want another warm winter…I don’t think Michigan’s economy could survive another fruitless summer and fall. Let us hope for normal.

  22. No please – I have a marching band competition Saturday in Grand Haven and a bike trip in Muskegon on Sunday.

  23. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Does Normal and average mean that Muskegon county could see 80-110″ this year because that is a normal amount ?

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      Average is changing with the climate.

      1. Skot says:

        Does ANYBODY know what “AVERAGE” means? Many numbers ALL from 1 to whatever. Add them all up then divide.

        1. Skot says:

          Average DOES NOT mean “TYPICAL”.

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        Average from NOAA is taken from a thirty year period. That thirty year period now includes all the warming years.

        1. Mike M. says:

          Someday temps will be up where they need to be like they were during the Medieval Warm period, and the Roman Warm Period, and the Minoan Warm Period. In the mean time, it’s still too cold.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          That’s hilarious. You idiots will make claims about ancient warming periods but don’t trust data from right now.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          The data from right now shows global temperatures have leveled off:

          http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png

          http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

          http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

          Prof. Dr. Judith Curry said, the BEST project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.

          ‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz2ABeSgNLs

  24. Tyler says:

    We had a hot summer in 1995 then the following winter was brutally cold. I bet we see a repeat this year.

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