The Coming Chill
October 2nd, 2012 at 2:36 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the image or click here to enlarge. This is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 7-11. We have a really blast of fall coming with high temperatures crashing into the low-mid 50s. The GFS plot gives G.R. just 47 on Sunday. with 850 mb temperatures (about a mile above ground) in the low 20s! That would set up a huge contrast with the 63-degree water of Lake Michigan. Look for lake-effect showers and the possibility of waterspouts over the lake and some mixed ice pellets. I’ll update more later on this evening/tonight…but it’s going to be chilly for the ArtPrize winners announcement party Friday evening and the coming weekend into early next week.
Winter has come to Mt. Washington NH. Look at the snow that the GFS model is printing out from far NW Minnesota into Ontario. That’s 18″ north of Lake of the Woods! Also, Brian Duey sent me this picture of the Northern Lights in Howard City on 9/30.
Yay?
Early Snow, WARM WINTER?
Hope its a warm winter.
I AGREE FIXXER–WARM SUMMER!!
MAKE THAT–WARM WINTER–OOPPSS
Huh, Can’t Beat Those REALLY Blasts.. Lol…..
Bring on the snow!
ROCK ON!
Looks like a crummy day on Saturday for WMU’s homecoming :-/
Hey Bill I ran into Terri down at Art Prize I Told her to tell u INDY says hi!! INDYY…
Bring on a Snowy snowy winter
Accuweather’s winter forecast update is tomorrow for anyone wondering but knowing them I’m sure they will put us in the warm area with no snow LOL they should just team up with another weather center or change their name perhaps to U>S weather or something like that because they are never ACCUrate LOL!
*U.S*
They probably will, since many of the others are saying the same thing. Warmer than normal with equal chance of precip.
If only we lived in the western UP:
“AS FOR HOW MUCH SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED…IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE
SNOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE W HALF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 06Z GFS WAS A BIT MORE LIMITING WITH THE
AMOUNTS…WITH THE BEST AREA OF SNOW GROWTH NEAR THE TOP…OR JUST
ABOVE CLOUD LEVEL. THE 12Z RUN STILL INDICATES AROUND AN INCH OR
SNOW POSSIBLE WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY STICK ACROSS MAINLY GRASSY
SURFACES…”
Yes, but they dont have a fall. They go from summer to winter with a two week color show!
As for North Dakota too it is possible they might even see near blizzard conditions WOW!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=87819&source=0
That doesn’t surprise me. I was stationed up in Grand Forks for a while and dealt with the cold and snow. “I kinda miss 20-30 below” said no one ever.
Ummmmmm if I may, they need to do a spell or grammar check before posting!! Because if you read/look closly they say, run indicates around an inch or snow on the ground, do you see the error? LOL!!
i thought Wednesday was supposed to be 80!!!!! Ohhh well….
Ive learned what they forecast is usually the total opppsite. They said average/cool summer and it was hot as heck. They say a warm fall & winter which probably means down right chilly.
Look at this thread: http://blogs.woodtv.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=45456&action=edit from May 21. I wrote: “I’m on board with the summer being a little bit warmer than average.” We had the 2nd warmest video ever, and then in August we had exactly average temperatures.
Sorry but August was not average. Let’s not forget that average has changed and is now .5 degrees. It’s been adjusted because of climate change, therefore August was well above the actual average. You’ve been predicting cold every season since I started following this blog. January – August were the hottest eight months in history. You certainly didn’t predict that.
We can predict with 100% accuracy that you will still be a mouth-breathing, booger-eating moron next year big duddy. That’s a lock.
Average is now .5 degrees? In August? Yup, there’s a brilliant one! And ‘it’s been adjusted (too that) because of climate change’? Too funny!
Talk about clever, Bobcat. You got me….BAD!!! Wow. LOL
.5 degrees higher, Princess.
Bill Steffen Says: April 24th, 2012
“To sum it up…the pattern will be cooler than last year and cooler relative to average for the Great Lakes to Northeast for the summer and fall.”
That’s Bill’s direct quote for his summer forecast made in April. I would post the link, but Bill isn’t allowing it for some reason!!!!
Now you’re sounding like Mitt Romney. Back and freaking forth!
First, the period from August 1 to October 31 will end up slightly cooler than average. I think that trend continues into November.
Second, go to this blog entry from last May: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2012/05/21/japanese-model-seasonal-forecasts/
You’ll read this: “The Japanese model was one of the few model forecasts that predicted a milder winter for last winter. It’s got us a little warmer than average for the summer (I’m on board with the summer being a little bit warmer than average) and it’s forecasting a lot of cold air over North America next winter.”
Hey Bill TWC wan’ts to name winter storms really, I and Kyle started that 2 years ago on your blogg they are a little off!! WE ARE BILL’S BLOGG !! INDYY..
Bring on the SNOW and COLD!
Lol who said anything about snow? Quit jumping ahead so far. My bet for the first snow is november.
Fixx almighty said….
NO THANK YOU–DON’T NEED COLD AND SNOW…BRRR
+1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5ReEsmul8c&feature=related This is what we need get ready!!! INDYY..
The end of a long strong la nina pattern…but this winter will have some suprise the way I’m looking at the pattern shapin’ up.
A warm day Thursday, and then whewwww…. It will only be in the low 50′s for Friday! I like how you used that enthusiasm Bill.
when are you going to be getting some measurable rain fall??
As of 8 PM, we’ve had 0.12″ in G.R. and 0.13″ in Holland. It’s not a lot, but it is measurable rain. With the high humidity, what we get can soak in.
I predict this winter – same as last.
YAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here’s a call for cold…
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/253438494112903168/photo/1
While it certainly looks cold – I don’t think it looks “brutal” (Joe’s words) – it looks “normal”. We SHOULD have temps below freezing in Dec/Jan/Feb.
Wow winter storm watch for northern MN for as much as 10″ of snow to fal!!!
Starting this week we are finally selling a decent amount of roof & gutter heating cable. People are finally remembering that it does snow alot in the USA! After the last non-winter, we haven’t sold much for a year, similar to the 1990′s. Those days are long gone we are back to snowy winters!
so you can see the future huh?
as can you??
Right Terry! One warm winter does not change the course of the past 70 winters!
Next month Michigan will have snow on the ground ….Snow and turkey.
or just turkey.
Can’t wait for the snow to start! I have a feeling based on this early-season snow not too far from us, as well as the extremely late starts to winter the last few years, that we may be in for some surprise winter weather early this season.
Also, has anyone appreciated the leaves this fall as much as I have? I’ve seen some of the most beautiful colors I can remember in the last week. Anyone near the Rockford area should take a drive down 11 or 12 Mile and Wolven Ave….absolutely stunning color.
My prediction for the first snow fall is January 19th of 2019!! LOL LOL LOL…….really I believe it will be October 23rd of this year! We will see..
I sure hope you are rigt about OCT 23. I would love to have some early snow this year followed by the lakes freezing over early, this way I can enjoy outdoor activities more than last year.
no
Cold cold cold… Let s ice fish!!!!
Hey Bill! When is your winter forecast coming out?
sara I was just looking it didn’t come out until Oct.28 last year sO I wouldn’t look for it at least until Oct. 20
Ok…Thanks!
Just as I thought accuweather put us in the below normal snowfall with warm conditions all winter long see that’s why you don’t listen to accuweather!
other people have said the same jordan. it’s not just them. don’t be shocked to see a repeat of last winter.
Or don’t be shocked to see a winter with its own identity. Since last winter was anomalously warm and uneventful, I’d say it’s statistically improbable to get a repeat of that in any given year.
Still, there’s still a chance that it could be a repeat. So don’t give up hope.
no offense but i don’t know why you even bother replying to me when all you do is contradict everything i say.
hey bill shoot me an email, haven’t heard from you in a long while… whats the deal?
Not meaning to contradict you at every turn, just throwing my perspective into the conversation. Can you see where I’m coming from though, logically? Note that I do wish you the most pleasant of winters.
Fixxxer…. hahaah! Dude, the two posts you made above were kinda contradictory. Come on man
LOL.
I’m actually hoping for a warm winter again. My gas bill sure was sweet last season!
A contradiction would be to say – no – it’s going to be the opposite of last winter. Cort is simply saying it’s unlikely to repeat such a warm & out of the ordinary winter. (Anomaly).
Fixxx “IS” contradictory Mr. Told-ya-so. Then turns around and says told-ya-so,
+1
Accuweather did not put us in the belove normal snowfall with warm conditions all winter long…what they actually said was “Meanwhile, near-normal snow is predicted for the typical Great Lakes snow belts. The warmer-than-normal water of the Great Lakes will set the stage for the lake-effect snow machine to turn on as any cold waves arrive”.
And to all of you who want another warm winter…I don’t think Michigan’s economy could survive another fruitless summer and fall. Let us hope for normal.
No please – I have a marching band competition Saturday in Grand Haven and a bike trip in Muskegon on Sunday.
Does Normal and average mean that Muskegon county could see 80-110″ this year because that is a normal amount ?
Average is changing with the climate.
Does ANYBODY know what “AVERAGE” means? Many numbers ALL from 1 to whatever. Add them all up then divide.
Average DOES NOT mean “TYPICAL”.
Average from NOAA is taken from a thirty year period. That thirty year period now includes all the warming years.
Someday temps will be up where they need to be like they were during the Medieval Warm period, and the Roman Warm Period, and the Minoan Warm Period. In the mean time, it’s still too cold.
That’s hilarious. You idiots will make claims about ancient warming periods but don’t trust data from right now.
The data from right now shows global temperatures have leveled off:
http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html
Prof. Dr. Judith Curry said, the BEST project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.
‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz2ABeSgNLs
We had a hot summer in 1995 then the following winter was brutally cold. I bet we see a repeat this year.