Friday

October 4th, 2012 at 4:45 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  Friday PM -  There is a chance of a period of rain mainly south of a line from Benton Harbor to Lansing.  Here in G.R. you can see the thicker clouds to the south.

The 12Z Friday NAM Caribou data keeps G.R. dry this weekend, with lake-effect rain south of Holland in the lakeshore counties from late Saturday to early Sunday.  What’s really interesting is that the NAM Caribou has a low of 28.8 Monday AM in G.R. and a low of 50.9 at the beach in Muskegon with a light SW wind off the warmer water.  I don’t think the difference will be that great, but you can get some wide variation in fall with light winds that might be coming off the lake.

From the Marquette NWS:  “SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OF A FEW INCHES…ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES OF THE INTERIOR WEST”.  There’s a Winter Storm Warning for ND/MN where up to a foot of snow could fall!   Up to 5″ of snow has fallen in NW Minnesota. Karlstad, MN reported 5″ of snow on the ground and Grand Forks ND had 3.5″.

ALSO:  Brazil model (from METSUL) predicting very cold winter for Chicago with a large majority of the precipitation in the form of snow (vs. rain).  Look here.

Also, Valdez AK had an amazing +26″ of rain in September – almost an inch a day!  They had  rain on 27 of 30 days in September.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy.

53 Responses to “Friday”

  1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    Well, these gray clouds are making the colors on the trees really POP today!!!

  2. just want to say if for no other reason, I love the weatherbell site for the models. got to wonder sometimes about Joe Bastardi “it’s all good lol” and the singing from the other day was classic.

  3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I really like that model Bill :)

  4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Bill a lot of people say Joe is wrong a majority of the time is that true?? if so this might not be right then I kinda wondered that because all the other winter forecast pin Chicago in the middle of a cold a snowy winter yet a warm winter so it’s tricky to tell right now???

  5. Accurate Weather Please says:

    Brazil model (from METSUL) predicting very cold winter for Chicago with a large majority of the precipitation in the form of snow (vs. rain).

    man, what is it with this blog just begging for terrible winters??? do not understand. anyways, why is this blog relying on a forecast from BRAZIL???

    accuweather (based in the good ol’ u s of a) has a totally different forecast for the Great Lakes / Midwest.

    Below-Normal Snow for Midwest; Normal Lake-Effect Snow for Great Lakes

    Following a dry and mild winter last year, portions of the Midwest is forecast to receive below-normal snowfall this winter.

    “Across the Upper Midwest, cities like Chicago, Minneapolis, are going to miss out on the big systems down to the south as far as snowfall goes. I think they are going to have to rely on more clipper systems coming down out of the north and west,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

    Omaha, Green Bay and St. Louis are other cities that may get less snow than normal.

    The lower-than-normal snowfall in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will result in spotty snow cover which in turn will help to keep temperatures milder than normal, according to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston. However, temperature departures are not expected to be as extreme as last winter.

    Meanwhile, near-normal snow is predicted for the typical Great Lakes snow belts. The warmer-than-normal water of the Great Lakes will set the stage for the lake-effect snow machine to turn on as any cold waves arrive.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-forecast-snow-northeast-nyc/80787

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I just mentioned the Brazilian model…one sentence. ACCU-Weather has the main storm track just south of us and that could be. However, with Lake Michigan being fairly warm (62 degrees today), there’s always the chance that there could be below average snowfall in Milwaukee and Chicago and near to above normal snowfall in Benton Harbor and South Haven because of lake-effect.

  6. Hugh says:

    Dislike grey skies.
    Where are the deer, squirrels, birds. Geese are grouping and taking short flying lessons. I’m not trying to look like fizzzle, I just miss the wildlife. p.s. saw one chipmunk the pm. :)

    1. John (Holland) says:

      We got a lot of them here in Holland. They are destroying the lawn with all their digging, more than I’ve seen in recent years. If that’s any indication, it’ll be a nasty winter.

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Yes, the ever popular and well respected Brazil model! I am sure that the Brazil model has an excellent track record at predicting winter weather in Chicago. That is too funny:)

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      I am sorry, but that ‘Brazil model’ leaves me absolutely clueless. It is “statistics” taken to its absolute nothingness.

  8. INDY says:

    Wow 1 more winter with theee fizzer on Bill’s blogg !!! YES!! INDYY….

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well I now have both eyes done so while now my distance vision seems good, my near vision is not so good and I will have to get used to using “reading glasses”
    SlimJim

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      Join the “senior citizen ” Crowd. ;-)

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Still way too early to guess a winter “forecast” but my early guess is for near average for now as see what happens. I would lean towards a colder winter just because its been above average for so long. But I can see how either a “warm” winter could set up as well as to how a “cold” winter could set up.
    SlimJim

  11. Nathan says:

    i totally disagree with accuweather.com because they are never right. and it is way to early to tell. i think we should wait until November and see what the models say then. that would make me more comfortable with this winters forecast.

  12. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    I’m with Rocky. Ha. Have we ‘ever’ posted the Brazil model before for anything?

  13. Dan says:

    Sure doesn’t yet feel like Fall! Yes, it is gray outside. It is also warm.
    Tomorrow I heard was the last warm day (temps in the 70s) for awhile.
    We will have to see if this verifies!

    1. Jack says:

      It’s not cool Outside Today, Just Damp…. Damp it… ;-)

  14. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    GOSH they already have schools and businesses closed for tomorrow in northern MN must be a huge winter storm headed in that way!

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      I thin you’re right, Jordan. Here’s their forecast:
      …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
      CDT FRIDAY…

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
      WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
      FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
      NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

      * LOCATION…NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA…INCLUDING NORTHERN
      ITASCA…NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS AND KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.

      * TIMING…LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

      * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF A
      LINE FROM BEMIDJI TO HIBBING TO ELY…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
      AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO 8 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST KOOCHICHING
      COUNTY.

      * IMPACTS…GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE
      PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
      BLOWING SNOW.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        So does the weather channel have a name already for this “storm”?

        1. Kimoeagle says:

          ‘NW Minnesota storm’. Howzat? ;-)

  15. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Read the winter storm warning not advisory!

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      Sorry, Jordan. The “warning” has not hit the Duluth area yet. It appears that the warning you speak of may presently be in Minnesaota’s far NW counties, i.e., East Marshall,East Polk,Lake Of The Woods,Mahnomen,North Beltrami,North Clearwater,Pennington,Red Lake,Roseau,South Beltrami, and South Clearwater.

  16. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    This coming winter just has that feeling it could be a nasty one ! Just sayin.. It’s a feeling. :)

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      No kidding and accuweather says a warm and non snowy winter for northern MN and they are already getting a winter storm so that just proves accuweather wrong and gives us higher chances of actually getting a really good winter with a lot of snow :)

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Early snowstorms do NOT foretell the winter that follows it for example look at last year.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter

        SlimJim

        1. Cort S. says:

          Snowtober survivor here.

  17. DanielG says:

    3/4 of an inch in the tube this morning at Myers Lake. Most fell before daybreak to about 8ish.
    Lake is down at least 18 inches from the spring high. Gives us a good ten feet of added beach space out front. Getting close to take out the pontoon time. Hate to do it until the bitter end but wait too long and its a PIA!
    As for winter predictions? Ask me in April and I’ll tell ya what it WAS. Until then? Its mostly BS IMHO.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m going to be a daredevil and leave our pontoon in the lake, waiting for a sunny day a few weeks out?? I HATE having all the dock equipment and boatlift sitting on the lawn, to have to mow and trim around, until the snow flies….

  18. John (Holland) says:

    The squirrels have been insane this year. The yard and landscaping are all torn up, the squirrels are digging up oak seedlings, and even stealing apples that were left outside overnight. I haven’t seen them storing up food so tenaciously in recent years, and I wonder if that means it’ll be a nasty winter.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Also the grape vines in the backyard are bare. Either the birds got them or the squirrels did, but I’ve never had my grapes disappear before.

  19. Mr. Negative says:

    Ada – 8/10 of an inch of rain overnight. Every little bit helps -

  20. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    This is from the NWS in GR we might have our first snowflakes Saturday night into Sunday morning :)

    LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN
    SHOWERS ONGOING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
    NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF THE LAKE WITH
    DELTA T/S AROUND 20 DEG C. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OF
    SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS
    CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT
    HAVE SNOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Your not going to see any snow just yet.

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I think so Fixxxer just look at that 4 lettered word :) you just don’t want any haha your wish failed!

  21. fixxxer says:

    It could stay in the low 70s all winter as far as im concerned. Not a bad fall day.

  22. Paul S says:

    Any idea why I just got a Civil Emergency Message from Storm Team 8?

    Breaking weather news from Storm Team 8. For more info use WOOD TV8 or woodtv.com.
    +++++++
    Severe weather alerts sponsored by Mercantile Bank. http://www.mercbank.com
    +++++++

    A Civil Emergency Message has been issued for your area

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The Newaygo Co Sheriff sent out a message saying they were going to test their tornado sirens tomorrow (first Friday of the month).

      1. INDY says:

        Tornado watch out ??? Dont see anything on radar Bill??? INDYY

        1. Cort S. says:

          CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
          RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
          420 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

          THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF NEWAYGO COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. DUE TO EQUIPMENT UPGRADES AND REPROGRAMMING…NARROWBANDING…NEWAYGO COUNTY WILL BE CONDUCTING A SIREN TEST FOR ALL TORNADO SIRENS IN NEWAYGO COUNTY AT NOON ON FRIDAY OCTOBER FIFTH 2012. ONCE AGAIN…ALL TORNADO SIRENS IN NEWAYGO COUNTY WILL BE TESTED AT NOON ON FRIDAY OCTOBER FIFTH.

  23. INDY says:

    Wow how about them Tigers this is a great time of year!!! From NWS GRAND RAPIDS TO THE NO R TH MAY HAVE SNOW ON THE GRASS COME SUNDAY MORNING …STAY TUINED@!@!@ DDDD DDDD DDD THEE SNOW FLAKES MAY FALL SATURDAY NIGHT!! DDD DDDD DDDD INDYY..

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      INDY I think that is a bit of an exaggeration but we will have some flakes :)

      1. Jack says:

        Scan The Blog,Lots of Flakes…Here…. ;-)

        1. Scott (west olive) says:

          lol

  24. INDY says:

    Yupp I know 1 FLAKE..on Bill’s blogg! INDYY..

    1. Jack says:

      Does His Name Begin With a FFFFFFF ??????…. Lol… :-)

      1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        That’s just mean.

        1. Jack says:

          Sorry, It’s all in Good Fun…. ;-)

  25. SBPortage002 says:

    Rain and a few claps of thunder down this way.

  26. Scott (west olive) says:

    did they take the LE rain out of Sat? Not enough moisture yet?

  27. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Weak El Nino means mild and dry Winter.
    Sorry to bust your bubbles….

    1. Irish coffee says:

      NO, weak El Nino does NOT automatically translate to “mild and dry” winter — FAR too many examples in the past to suggest that cold and snowy is just as likely, fwiw.

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