Thursday Night Showers End

October 11th, 2012 at 4:27 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  4:40 AM – The band of rain that passed through the area has exited into northern Indiana.  We’ll be mostly sunny this Friday with light winds ahead of the weekend storm.     So far rainfall:  0.14″ Grand Haven, 0.13″ Muskegon and Holland (Boatwerks), 0.09″ Allendale and 0.05″ Grand Rapids (at WOOD-TV).

The Tigers and J.V. are going to win game 5…let’s see, it’s Thursday, so Doles Bananas at 10 PM and 11 PM.  The weather looks cool and pleasant for Football Frenzy Friday evening.   The GFS and the European both have a very wet weekend for us, with over an inch of rain for G.R. on both models.  Have a rain plan for outdoor activities and football games this Saturday and Sunday.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy.

62 Responses to “Thursday Night Showers End”

  1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    It sure has been windy this week,with more wind on the way. The Tigers will win game 5! Early Sat looks good to do outdoor stuff to get ready for winter around the house. Sat night and Sunday looks good for a big pot of food and watching sports on TV. GO TIGERS!!

  2. Shae says:

    This makes the weekend sound potentially interesting:

    LONG TERM
    (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
    ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

    STRONG FALL STORM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUMPED UP
    POPS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CATEGORICAL IS WARRANTED.
    GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME
    INSTABILITY SATURDAY NIGHT…SO THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
    PRESENT. CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY COULD MAKE IT INTO
    LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING IN THE FORM AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
    STORMS.

    SOME ROTATING STORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN THIS LINE ACROSS
    THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE 0 TO 1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
    IS PROGGED TO BE OVER 100. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT
    LINE WINDS AS ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE ABOVE 50 KNOTS WITHIN 3 KFT
    AGL. TORNADIC THREAT IS SECONDARY AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH.

    SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
    FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC
    RIDGE WILL HOLD SWAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DROPPED POPS FOR TUESDAY.
    NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
    ARRIVING AND CONTINUING WED NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES ALONG WITH
    SFC CYCLONE.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Since it’s suppose to be a rainy weekend I hope we do see a lot of thunder and lighting with this system before a very LONG and drawn out winter that would be nice but I may hope for this but the hope is not high more of “It would be nice but I don’t expect it to happen because the pattern and tread and path of any storms haven’t been in GR/Kent favor. But I guess anything is possible just keep on keeping on if it happens it happens one way or another it will be wet this weekend, just would like to see some excitement with it.

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      YAY we might finally have our severe weather that we have all been waiting for WOW mother nature really can make weather interesting snow the first then severe weather the next :)

    3. Nancy says:

      Keywords….”SATURDAY NIGHT”. I sure hope the storm holds off long enough for everyone to enjoy Larkin’s Chili Madness Chili Cook-off!!!??? Please, please, please!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I just posted this link for my kayak group – at the moment, NOAA implies Saturday morning will be crap – and will just get worse as the day goes on until they finally have Spotters *standing by* for the evening

        http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&w14u=1&pqpfhr=6&psnwhr=6&AheadHour=36&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=42.96120&textField2=-85.65570&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0

        Needless to say – we are canceling this weekend’s paddle trips :-(

  3. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    It wouldn’t even surprise me if we go under a flash flood watch or something like that because looking at some models they put us in the 3-4″ of rain range!

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Cool, did you guys redesign the storm team 8 station?!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Yep they did :)

  5. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

    What do you guys thin for tommorrow night and Saturday morning? I know there isnt supposed to be much rain until later but hows the wind going to be? Thanks

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Tomorrow will be the nicest day until Monday hope that helps :)

      1. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

        Sure does. I thought it was going to be but just wanted to make sure. Im going to be spending some time out in the woods so wanted to pick the nicer of the two days.

      2. Nancy says:

        Yikes…so they’ve advanced the storm for Saturday? Whether or not I participate in the chili cook-off is hinging on when the storm arrives! Sighhhhh.

  6. INDY says:

    Yupp time to get the Bill’s best out of the hat and start tracking storms this week’nd sure has been a long time since the blogg was rolling we can only fizz so long right???? Lightning rods Thunderbooms and maybe a twist or 2 coming to a town near U!! Get that FAT list going on what u need and stay tuned ….INDYY..

    1. fixxxer says:

      lmao… it must drive you mad that im not going anywhere indy. the silence act you and swatz have been giving me didn’t work so now your back to the attacks. keep up the good work indydog!

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        OFGS Fixxxer goet over yourself!!! I haven’t been giving you or anyone else the silent treatment I’ve been away from here more then I’ve been here, if I’ve given you the silent treatment then I’ve been giving Indy, Jack, and everyone else on here the silent treatment, now that I’ve been back a couple time you’re going to poke at me for something I haven’t done? I haven’t implied anything about you or to you or jumped on the band wagon of name calling in any of my posts until now, is that what you want is for me to take part in the childish games since you seem to want to bring me into this mix you think I”m part of. I haven’t come on here much at all because the weather has been boring and frankly I’m sick of all the BS that goes on between people from name calling to politics to you name it, and no it’s not all about you that you seem to keep implying in a couple comments.

        1. Scott (west olive) says:

          I think you fell into a fixxed trap. lol

  7. Nancy says:

    Oh no! Larkin’s 11th Annual Chili Madness Chili Cook-off is this Saturday. Can someone give me an idea of a timeline for the storms? Earlier this week it looked like it was going to hold off until evening…now I’m not so sure!

    Ideas anyone?

  8. Nancy says:

    Whoops….I should have noted the chili cook-off is in Lowell, MI!!!

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While its still way too early to guess what track will be the storm track this winter but that said if the track turns out to be the one that this weekends storm will follow then a lot of so called “snow” lovers could be disappointed this winter. As the storms would be to the NW of us and we would get into the “warm” sector of the systems and get rain and then some lake effect snow on the back side. Note this is not my winter “guess” but just something that could play out.
    I am leaning for a near average winter this year but time will tell.
    SlimJim

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I don’t like your winter forecast lol I want a lot of snow bring on the snow :D

      1. fixxxer says:

        that’s funny because i like slims forecast.

    2. kevin. w says:

      Your about right Slim and am thinking a bit more on snowfall and slightly above ave. temps but not to far from the norm.

  10. kevin. w says:

    Jet structure is sure ramping up across the pacific bringing some very stormy weather across the country. I’m thinking that there will be a powerhouse storm early in November with alot of dynamics stronger than this weekend storm as I’m looking down the road with some of the data over the far pacific with the active typhoons and storminess over Asia toward the end of October/early November. A possible Edmund Fitzgerald type of storm, but interesting developments coming down the road.

  11. Scott (west olive) says:

    Wish I had one of those wind generators now, could have made money this month selling the juice back to Consumers. :)

  12. Sandi says:

    Sure wish these winds would calm down a bit. Makes raking leaves a challenge (-: Plus it makes it feel colder even with the sun out. Ahhhh but the colors are awesome right now.

  13. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWWAAAK! Is the chicken understanding this correctly? Strong storms in October is enough to make stressed induced egg laying more than just a summer event! Cluckity-cluck-cluck!

    1. fixxxer says:

      there isn’t going to be any strong storms.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Read the post above from Shae it is possible you never know and now that were in a different season different weather maybe we will stand a chance this time ;)

        1. Cort S. says:

          Cluck cluck! Looks like Michigan will get the diminishing leftovers from the severe weather event out west on Saturday!
          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

  14. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    If only it was cold enough this weekend we would be getting a blizzard with 2 feet of snow sigh maybe next time lol :)

  15. Mr. Negative says:

    Storm free -

  16. fixxxer says:

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/Current.aspx

    warm fall huh? this just reinforces how these long ranges are nothing short of a joke.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      So, the fact that it is cold in some places today means that it’s not a warm fall?

  17. INDY says:

    Thanks fizzer but your a wast of time!! INDYY..

  18. Cort S. says:

    RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
    0223 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

    …RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI…

    A TRACE OF SNOW FELL AT GRAND RAPIDS YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST
    TIME ON RECORD THAT SNOW HAS FALLEN ON OCTOBER 10TH AT GRAND RAPIDS.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      And Muskegon :)

    2. Scott (Hartford Van Buren Co.) says:

      Cort, What is your thought on Saturday we have a Lions Club event outside at 2:00 p.m. can you give me your best thoughts on the rain and wind time wise. Thanks

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I can’t speak for Cort – but the NWS thinks you’re going to have lots of rain and about a 10 mph wind from the south?

        1. Scott (Hartford Van Buren Co.) says:

          Yea not looking good, Bill had said on Monday or Tuesday that the rain would start up north and move south, I hope so, 300+ kids and rain does not work to well.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Saturday will be an active weather day for much of the Midwest.

          A severe weather episode is expected to our west, focused mostly on Iowa and northern Missouri. This may become a Moderate Risk day for damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes in IA/MO.
          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif

          In Michigan… a warm front will be sliding through during the day on Saturday, bringing occasional rain (sometimes heavy rain) and thunderstorms (probably not severe but the chances are not zero). Then late on Saturday night or early Sunday morning, Michigan will get a line of whatever is leftover from the severe storms to the west.

        3. Scott, Home in Lawrence (Van Buren Co ) says:

          Thanks Cort.

  19. INDY says:

    New Data coming in storm chasers, Biills bloggers get ready for Saturday Michigan will be under the gun BANGGGGG!!!! for SEVERE STORMS 2 ROUNDS COMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON!! WITH MAYBE A TORNADO !!!! START LOOKING WEST START TRACKING WITH BILL’S BEST!! INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      Spin: Koko Taylor… Wang Dang Doodle !! Enjoy…. ;-)

  20. Hugh says:

    I like the sunshine now,don’t mind a few flurries now and then. The wind (hopefully)is taking my leaves into the woods:) Is it a fact that frosts are killing deer ticks? That would be wonderful – and I’m not even a hunter.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Better yet – the frost is supposed to kill the midges that are transmitting the EHD disease that’s killing so many deer.

      1. Hugh says:

        Thank you

  21. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The chance of the GR area getting severe weather this weekend is low.

  22. Cort S. says:

    NWS Grand Rapids forecast discussion for Saturday…

    Good discussion in the Hydrology section about how there may be a stripe of heaviest rainfall totals across Michigan with the warm-frontal rains. Whether this will be north, over, or south of GR is in question.
    —–

    ALL FOCUS THEN MOVES TO THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM…A SUB 1000MB LOW THAT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN (AT TIMES HEAVY)…THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDY CONDITIONS. DISCUSSED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BELOW IN THE HYDRO SECTION. EXPECT RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING MUCH OF THE TIME…WITH GOOD SURGES PROGD SATURDAY MORNING…SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AS THE AREA WILL SIT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL AXIS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE IS NOT ZERO GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN PLAY…WITH 850MB WINDS OF 40-60 KNOTS AND MID LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KNOTS. FEEL OUR BEST BET WILL COME AS POTENTIALLY A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCE ON SUNDAY AS WELL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WHEN A BAND OF STORMS MAY FORM IN A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND SCENARIO. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE DAY THREE SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SLIGHT RISK WEST OF THE AREA AND AGREE WITH THAT THINKING AT THIS TIME. OUR INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION MARK. HIGHEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE RAINFALL AND WIND ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES BY.

    .HYDROLOGY…
    HYDRO CONCERNS ARE INCREASING RELATED TO THE WEEKEND STORM. IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH LOOK AT WATER CONTENT IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN ARE NEAR MAX VALUES FOR MID OCTOBER (1.75 INCHES) BASED ON A 50-60YR STUDY. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE IS A DEEP FALL STORM WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. RAINFALL TOTALS BY SUNDAY EVENING MAY REACH AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTH TOWARD I94 AND POTENTIALLY 2-3 INCHES FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS IS NOT HIGH. ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN COULD BE IN PLAY AT THIS POINT FOR THAT STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THOUGH THAT IT MAY FALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. AS WE HEAD THROUGH FRIDAY CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION WILL INCREASE. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE GOOD THOUGH WITH SOILS THAT ARE NOT SATURATED AND LOW FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS. FOR INSTANCE THE STAGE ON THE GRAND IN DOWNTOWN GRAND RAPIDS IS 2.91 FEET WHICH IS IN THE 9TH PERCENTILE.

    1. Cort S. says:

      This stripe of heaviest rainfall totals can be seen in today’s NAM and GFS. Click here to see what this morning’s run of the NAM wants to do.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Looks like a lot of rain for my area but need it the lake is really low! :)

  23. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I’d like to repost this so that Fixxxer sees it, but FGS Fixxxer get over yourself!!! I haven’t been giving you or anyone else the silent treatment I’ve been away from here more then I’ve been here, if I’ve given you the silent treatment then I’ve been giving Indy, Jack, and everyone else on here the silent treatment, now that I’ve been back a couple time you’re going to poke at me for something I haven’t done? I haven’t implied anything about you or to you or jumped on the band wagon of name calling in any of my posts until now, is that what you want is for me to take part in the childish games since you seem to want to bring me into this mix you think I”m part of. I haven’t come on here much at all because the weather has been boring and frankly I’m sick of all the BS that goes on between people from name calling to politics to you name it, and no it’s not all about you that you seem to keep implying in a couple comments.

    1. Jack says:

      Hi Swat-Zoo….. +1 :-)

  24. Jeff (Fremont) says:

    That’s true Bill, the Tigers WILL win tonight!

  25. michael g (SE GR) says:

    I think the Tigers missed their chance last night. If Verlander had pitched the ninth last night, he wouldn’t need to pitch nine tonight. He’ll give up two runs, one unearned, and the Tigers offense will fail again. Oakland wins 2-1.

    1. Hugh says:

      We’ll see 9:30 tonight p TNT :)

      1. Jack says:

        Hugh I Think it’s On TBS. GO TIGERS !!!!

      2. Jack says:

        Hugh Sorry You Were Right it’s TNT,My Mistake ! GOOOOOOO TIGERS…!!!!!!

  26. Kimoeagle says:

    Got a picture from friends at the Soo —- no doubt about it. They HAVE been getting snow most of the day.

  27. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Latest models have slowed down the system a bit and also has a farther south track. from Reed Timmer

    would this place the heavier rain further south?

  28. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    I had a live 40ft Oak tree snap Thurs about 12ft up from the ground that fell into my yard. Looks to have had a rotten spot in it where it broke. It was a pretty good size tree. Now i get to cut it up for next winters fire wood. That’s my wind storm report from 10/11/12.

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