Sunday Storm

October 12th, 2012 at 4:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

0600 UTC Day 1 Outlook   Estimated gust to 55 mph 5SSW Grand Rapids, 42 mph officially at the Ford Airport, 48 mph in downtown G.R. at GVSU – 45 mph in Hudsonville, 46 mph in Allendale – Measured gust to 60 mph at Peotone, just west of Chicago and 54 mph at the Harrison Crib 3 miles east of downtown Chicago.  SPC has moved the Slight Risk Area for this late afternoon evening up into SW Michigan, south of a line from S. Haven to Battle Creek.   Meso-Discussion for SW Michigan – “Watch Unlikely” – Mostly just scattered light showers now.  The Slight Risk Area has been moved up to the Michigan/Indiana border.  No watches or meso-discussions out right now.  It’s breezy and warm with temperatures in the mid. 60s.  We’re in the green thunderstorm (chance of a non-severe storm) for this Sunday.    Severe weather Saturday never got closer to us than SW Missouri.   I’ll was at the Harbor Humane Society Dog Walk at Kirk Park Saturday.  It was pouring, so we didn’t do the actual walk, but we had a nice time under the shelter there.  They had a big raffle and Sue Shaw’s ticket was pulled for one of the door prizes (might have been a restaurant gift certificate).    The news on TV is mostly crime, chaos, conflict and catastrophe…and events like this show me that there are still so many good people in the world.  I enjoyed seeing all the dogs and talking to everyone there.  Driving out to the lake, the fall colors were pretty good, despite the wind and rain knocking them down.  Back home…several robins have been devouring the berries off my Mt. Ash tree…they were making a joyful noise and didn’t seem to want to move too far up the tree as I walked slowly by.  I watched for a few minutes.  For every two berries they ate in the tree…one fell to the ground.

Here’s current severe weather watches and meso-discussions.

106 Responses to “Sunday Storm”

  1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Looks like an exciting next 2 weeks fr us let’s hope it sure was a boring tracking summer
    :) :)

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I’m[ glad you are still keeping up the positive thoughts Jordan, some one has to because any talk of storms it goes in one ear and out the other for me now, as many here have said and I agree, I’ll believe it when I see it. It sure would be nice thought to hear thunder almost forgot what it sounded like.

      1. Jack says:

        It Sounds A lot Like , Bob Segers… OLD TIME ROCK N ROLL……. :-)

      2. fixxxer says:

        Geez i wonder who has been saying this all along swatz?

  2. Mr. Negative says:

    Typical…sounds like another Halloween shot in the foot.

  3. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

    I heard a Robin singing in Jenison this morning. My Robins have been gone for almost a month, so it was nice to hear one more time for this year. About a year ago I posted the old saying, ” thunder in fall, no winter at all.”. We did have several thunder showers after fall started and it played out true for last winter. So far no thunder this year. We’ll have to see what happens.

  4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Sounds awesome! Finally some action!

  5. Jack says:

    Off Topic, I Love The New Diggs at News 8. Bill When You Gonna Have a Bills Blog POTLUCK ?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      We’ve got to do that sometime. I’ll see if promotion can spring for some giveaways.

      1. Jack says:

        Thanks Bill !! Your Blog Family Would Love It, I’m Sure. I’ve got a Few Ideas. Would Love To Sit Down and Knock Heads, With You and The Promotions Dept. God Bless Ya All…. Peace… :-)

      2. Brad (Lawrence) says:

        I would come. I could finally meet THEE Bill Steffen in person. It would kinda be like meeting Brad Pitt in person.

        1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

          But WAY more informative

  6. GunLakeDeb says:

    Time to start convincing the kids that they don’t want to be a “Princess” (brrrrr!!!) – but maybe a “DogSledder” instead??

    1. fixxxer says:

      It does look chilly by halloween. YAY?

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Hey fix is that you in the pic????
        SlimJim

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Must be it seams like his personality haha!

        2. fixxxer says:

          Oh yeah? So you know me in real life jordan? Hows that “cousin” of yours? ;)

          And no slim i signed up for a gravitar today for another forum. Had no idea it would show up here.

        3. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Hey that was like 3 months ago I don’t do it anymore but you still do your negativity and arguments so it seems like you Lmao!

        4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Why’d you take it off fix?

        5. michael g (SE GR) says:

          I missed it. Was it a grumpy truck driver looking guy with one arm in a cast?

        6. fixxxer says:

          My arms not in a cast but good “attempt” at failure…i mean humor mike.

        7. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Oh, and I forget to mention his mullet.

        8. fixxxer says:

          mike you fail on the internet.

    2. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      Deb… went as sledders one year with a lil one (she was supposed to be a princess… I convinced her to be a sledder… Thought it was a good idea in the rain and cold until walking for an hour so carrying a sled… got a little warm in the snowsuit!!! LOL!!!

  7. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD
    CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
    SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY…BEFORE THE UPPER IMPULSE DEAMPLIFIES.
    HOWEVER…INCREASING MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF
    THIS SYSTEM…COUPLED WITH PROBABILITY OF DECREASING AVAILABLE
    INSTABILITY…RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO EXTEND THE AREAL
    DELINEATION. THEREAFTER…INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK…THE SPREAD
    IN MODEL DATA CONCERNING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS BECOMES
    MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
    SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

    so your saying there’s a chance

    INDY ” Get ready to hold your hats torando weather is on it’s way!”

    Fixxxer “Yawn”

    Sorry counldn’t resist

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      At one point I would get excited about this but now I shrug it off if it happens it happens, if it don’t, it don’t, nothing new if it doesn’t we have bad luck for weather events on our side, North, South, or East will see something but nope not W. Michigan. I hope I’m wrong but anyway I’ll be here if things do get exciting but not getting any hope up, because when they call something out this far out it doesn’t follow through.

  8. I think I’d make the drive over for that

  9. Becca says:

    Anyone that is a native of this great state knows the children’s Halloween costumes are best with long sleeves or made to fit over a winter jacket. This, among other reasons, is why I typically make our kiddo’s costumes.

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I am now down to 32 here this AM. There are many reports of mid to upper teens over in Wisconsin this AM that is a hard freeze.
    Congrats to the Tigers JV did a outstanding job once again last night!
    Now we will keep our eyes on the weekend system. I think there will be a better chance of high winds more so then actual thunderstorms but hey time will tell. BTW if Baltimore wins the next series starts in Detroit this weekend if NY wins it will start in NY.
    SlimJim

  11. Brad (Lawrence) says:

    Not gonna cancel our outdoor party, but we will keep an eye on the sky and radar. We’ll move into the barn if we have to. Not getting my hopes up because LM seems to dissolve storms on contact. Could get interesting, I guess we’ll see.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Whether or not LM dissolves the storms (I think it won’t), it seems as though the heaviest rainfall will be to your north during most of the day. You might be able to catch a break for your party!

  12. Mr. Confused says:

    Call me Mr. Confused……forecast for Saturday is a high of 59 but Bill’s Blog mentions that temps “will be well up into the 60′s”????

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      It’ll probably get to the upper 50s by Saturday evening…but he high for the day will likely be in he low-mid 60s after sunset…maybe at 11:59 PM

      1. Mr. Not So Confused Now says:

        Thanks Bill for clarifying.

      2. fixxxer says:

        your rule of thumb “if i remember correctly” is anything under 60 means no super strong storms/tonadic activity.

  13. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

    Had the first frost here that made it to daylight ( I don’ t wake up enough to see until daylight). Hope tomorrow ends up being fun.

  14. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

    FROST HERE THIS MORNING TOO.

  15. GunLakeDeb says:

    Bill, I’m confused because you’re saying that most of Saturday should be dry?? The hourly forecast from the NWS says the possibility of rain starts at 8 AM Saturday. Are you implying the Lake Michigan Storm Shredder will be doing its thing?? ;-)

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      well most of the precep will be coming from the south so I’m not seeing any corrlation with the Shredder

    2. Cort S. says:

      The stuff on Saturday will be associated with a warm front, so it will be elevated and the Storm Shredder won’t affect it.

      The latest thinking from HPC is that the heaviest and most persistent rainfall will be north of GR:
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

      The surface forecast for 8 pm Saturday:
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=wbg&arrval=4&vtime=Sun_00Z&ptime=Sat_12Z&ntime=Sun_12Z
      Shows greater than 50% coverage of precipitation to the north of GR, and less than 50% coverage of precipitation to the south of GR.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Thank you, Cort! I’ll save that rainfall diagram for later – when I get a bunch of flack for canceling our paddle trips on the Muskegon River, and it’s not raining in GR!

        1. Cort S. says:

          Those maps will update with time, so save those maps on your computer. Hopefully the predictions verify. We’ll see a lot of rain on the radar tomorrow. The NWS is giving Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and Big Rapids a 100% chance of receiving a measurable rainfall.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Looks like those maps have updated since I posted them. Here is a new QPF map, valid for 8 pm tonight through 8 pm Saturday:
          http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
          It’s going for 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in that 24 hour period. And according to my expectations on when the rain will start, it’ll all fall in the 12-hour period after 8 am.

  16. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    when is the primary timing on the first surge of thunderstorms on Saturday with the warm front?

    1. Cort S. says:

      I’ll say it will be knocking on West Michigan’s door at 8 a.m., and coming in from the West. Think of it more like a blob of widespread rain, with occasional thunderstorm cells. I think the best chance of thunder will ramp up in the afternoon, and continue into the night.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I like your thinking Cort!

  17. Lynn G. says:

    Confused! Is the rain staying to the north tomorrow? Can we stay dry in the south?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Depends on what you mean by “south”. The GFS has a 100% chance of rain tomorrow for G.R., Holland and Muskegon, tapering only to 70% at the Indiana border…so even there we have a good chance of rain.

  18. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Slight risk now extended farther west for tomorrow and includes Muskegon to Ludington :)

  19. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Weather.com is aying the same thing the heaviest of the rain will be along and north of Holland to GR line basically along and north of 96

    http://www.weather.com/maps/news/forecastsummary/floater6_large.html

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Well I’m going to gas up my generator for giggles anyway just in case because when we had the wind advisory we lost power for a couple hours and if we have stronger wind that that this weekend with or witout storms who knows what will happen plus have it filled up and ready to fire up for the winter if need be. As I said, it would be very nice to get 1 rocking end of the season thunderstorm before a long drawn out and possibly another boring winter season.

      1. fixxxer says:

        there ya go, buy into the “hype”.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Not buying into any hype, but I won’t be caught with my pants down either. As I’ve been saying even with all the fizzles fails whatever, in the end mother nature will have the last laugh on someone and I’d rather be safe and prepared then sorry and not prepared. Never let your guard down regardless of the fails we’ve had because that is when it will turn around and bite you in the a$$.

        2. INDY says:

          fizzels lololololololo!!! INDYY..

  20. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    HMMM I wonder where WZZM gets their models they are defiantly not on target lol they put the bulk of the precip going south and not north they put the eastern side of the state in the 7″ amount range which will not happen anybody know where they get their models?

  21. fixxxer says:

    blah “tornadic supercells” in october in michigan? sorry but im doubtful.

    1. Cort S. says:

      As am I. Don’t expect a big event here. Nobody said it would be a big deal here, there’s just a non-zero chance of maybe “one” happening, given the strong wind shear.

      For what it’s worth, we do get occasional tornado outbreaks in Michigan in October, but this won’t be one of them. (See October 18, 2007: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20071018 )

  22. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Accuweather gives me close to 1″ of snow on November 3rd I hope that holds true :D but knowing them well have to wait and see :D

  23. Cort S. says:

    The probability of severe weather on Saturday:
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
    This will likely not be a big severe weather event for Michigan. Just a lot of rain and hopefully some occasional thunderbooms.

  24. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Here’s the latest thoughts on this weekends storm VIA GRR

    .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

    MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ALL REVOLVE AROUND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
    OBVIOUSLY. HEAVY RAINS…THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC
    SCALE WINDS ARE ALL ON THE TABLE AS ITEMS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT.

    REGARDING THE HEAVY RAINS DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW BUT IT LOOKS
    LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE
    FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR 36 TO 42 HOURS
    FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

    MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE IN DETERMINING PLACEMENT OF
    THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. AT THIS POINT OPTING TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER
    DEEPER GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF MOVEMENT
    IN THE NAM AND THE GFS IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. TODAY/S
    CHANGE WAS A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MORE INTO THE GRR CWA FROM THE
    NAM/GFS AND FOR A WEAKER LOW AS WELL. GIVEN THE POTENT LOOK OF THE
    LOW IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE CONSTANT MODEL THEME FOR A LONG
    TIME OF SOUTHWEST LOWS BEING SLOWER…DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTHWEST
    SIDING WITH THE ECMWF TODAY.

    THE ECMWF SPREADS RAIN INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
    SATURDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT AXIS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE CWA
    THROUGH THE DAY. ENVISION A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROLLING IN
    FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
    SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ZERO ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
    SYSTEM AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRING
    SPIN UP TYPE TORNADO IF WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY.
    INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE PROBLEM THOUGH AS WE SHOULD BE SOCKED
    IN WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.

    STORMS THAT FIRE TO THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT
    EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO
    CONTINUALLY FEED ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
    THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH CLOSE TO THE WARM
    FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
    INSTABILITY THINKING THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER…IN LINE WITH THE
    SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK BEING WEST OF THE AREA.

    SUNDAY…THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. THE
    POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
    MOVES IN DURING THE DAY. THE 850MB LLJ IS ON THE ORDER OF 50 KNOTS
    PER THE ECMWF. IF THERE IS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT
    THESE WINDS COULD BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

    VERY STRONG WINDS SHOULD SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING AS
    A STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA.

    .HYDROLOGY…
    ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

    HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
    ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
    1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TOWARD 3 INCHES
    POSSIBLE. THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT REMAINS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
    PRECIPITATION WILL LINE UP. MODELS HAVE A PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF LOW
    TRACKS AND SPEEDS. THE UPSIDE IS THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE GOOD
    IN THAT SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT HIGH AND RIVER FLOWS REMAIN
    LOW. ALSO…THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER 36 HOURS OR
    SO. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM IN THE RIVERS FOR RISES AND IN FACT
    THAT IS WHAT WE ARE PROJECTING ON AREA RIVERS…SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
    BANK RISES. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS NUISANCE FLOODING RELATED TO PONDING
    OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING CLOGGED DRAINS
    FROM LEAVES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AROUND 1.6 INCHES
    WITH AN 850MB LLJ AIMED AT THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD
    SEE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
    SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING

    1. fixxxer says:

      Sounds like a joe.b forecast.

  25. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    so I’m gussing it’s likley that the afternoon football games will have some lighting delays

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Not a sure thing on the lightning. Much of the morning should be dry in Albion, with showers and a chance of a t-shower (only a chance) in the mid-late afternoon.

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        thanks bill

  26. INDY says:

    Well well well I have been blogg’ng bad storms now for 2 days Bill even thinks so Time to RACK STACK AND CRACK on whats coming for Michigan one thing for sure no little fizzel about it or his dought it will be a no! and yes to over 3 inches of rain!!!Only if this was snow bloggers that WORK would have a week off!!! Stay tuned the sprites are right and it’s INDY’S NIGHT!! BILL ARE U READY???INDYY….

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol i dont need to work now but thanks for you continued support and concern.

  27. Here you go everyone! A good old fashioned storm fix. Watch the contunious strobe light lightning and listen to the thunder that never quits!! ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN0EfWOK2GM&feature=plcp

  28. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWWAAAK! Counting feathers, “just in case” a few hundred go flyin’!
    Might be a pumpkin flyin’ fracas Sat. night!

  29. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The GR area will not see any severe weather this weekend!

  30. Cort S. says:

    The latest run of the HRRR model, showing the development of widespread rain overnight: Click Here
    It wants to bring the rain into Michigan around 6 a.m.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      so showers with embedded thunder

  31. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Looks like an interesting weekend. Already down to 38* here. Wonder if we could see a little snow or some ice pellets if the precip moves in early enough.

    1. Cort S. says:

      It would be quite a sight to behold, but sadly I don’t think it will happen. In advance of the warm front, the freezing level will be quite a bit higher than what it was earlier this week. It’ll be up at about 12,000 feet:
      http://i.imgur.com/6xO7R.gif
      (It was down to about 3,000 feet two days ago.)

  32. INDY says:

    From thee YARDofBRICKS…..***** BREAKING NEWS TORNADO THUNDERSTORMS ARE COMING TO MICHIGAN SATURDAY ******* SO STAY SAFE BUILD A FIRE AND YELL I AM HIGHER!!!INDYY…

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I love your passion INDY :) but it looks like it will be mainly heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms

      1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

        it isn’t out of the question to see severe weather.. but im not getting my hopes up.. so far this year nearly everything has been a bust. Some of the craziest weather can happen in the fall time though. No one really knows what to expect. For all we know snowflakes could be falling tomorrow morning (34* locally here currently)

      2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

        adding onto what I said.. either way.. tomorrow could be one of the most “diverse” days of weather we get this year.

  33. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    down to 34 here! getting chilly for sure! I wonder if (going along with what Michael g said) it is possible for us to see a few snowflakes or some sleet if the “rain” (or precip) moves in early enough.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Right now the freezing level is down to 4,000 feet above ground, but the GFS is calling for a wedge of warm air aloft to come up from the southwest ahead of the warm front. It has the freezing level rising to 12,000 feet before the precipitation moves in. I think it’ll just be a cold rain.

  34. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    New rainfall run in and I don’t agree with it because I know were going to receive way more than an inch of rain!

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

    1. INDY says:

      YUPP row row row your boat down Bill’s stream of 3 coming that is INCHES of rain Jordan!! INDYY,..

  35. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWWAAK! wonder if it will be a feather flyin’ fracas or not?

  36. kentwoodchicken says:

    Will trash cans be blowin’ and pumpkins flyin’ everywhere? Time to tie down the coop!

    1. Jack says:

      Wind Whipped Chicken …..Anyone… YUMMMM….. Cluck Cluck… ;-)

  37. INDY says:

    DDDD DDDD BREAKING AT THIS TIME HOLD YOUR TRASH CANS DDDD DDDDD DDDD! INDY!!

  38. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    hold your hats

  39. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Weather.gov lowered everything for my location the next 2 days they lowered the amount of rain they lowered the amount of wind, they lowered the pops, and took thunder away ugh I was really looking forward to a nice fall storm to track why when ever it gets really close mother nature takes that away :( but anything can happen well just have to see!

  40. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    the forecast for Twin Lake on weather.gov did not take away the thunder in the forecast

    Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 60. South wind 5 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
    Saturday Night Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 56. South southwest wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Ok thank you bnoppe :) it scared me there for a second but I am really hoping that this is not a system that we all have been waiting for to fail that would bring us all down!

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        they normally only change the forecast during the updates or around them so that’s one clue and if they are it’s usally with an update

    2. Stephen says:

      exactly why kids shouldn’t be on this blog

      1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

        To Stephen: How are kids going to learn about the weather any better than being on this blog? I am far from being a kid and this blog is one of the greatest learning tools i have ever found. Between Bill and many others that post very informative post on here you cant beat it.It is a wealth of information at your finger tips. Kids get excited and wound up,then let down by what they read. So i figure the more they learn off this blog Bill puts out,the more they will understand how this thing they call weather works.

        1. Stephen says:

          I’m saying he does nothing useful and posts false information and changes his name to his “cousin” every other week it gets annoying after awhile..

  41. Cort S. says:

    Latest HRRR model run: Click Here

    The animation goes from 9 pm tonight to noon tomorrow.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      looks like that LLJ will really be feeding in the moister later on Saturday

    2. Cort S. says:

      The latest NAM (Click Here) wants to do something similar tomorrow morning. Sending a round of rain through Michigan (mostly I-96 and north) in the morning, then send a round of heavy rain through Michigan and northern Indiana in the afternoon, then send another couple rounds of rain through Saturday night and into Sunday.

      Instability will be marginal, so thunder will be few and far between most of the time. Instability in Michigan looks like it will be maximized on Saturday evening according to SREF; perhaps then Lake Michigan could serve to enhance it a little bit near the lakeshore counties as well. So thunder will be most likely Saturday evening and overnight when instability ramps up.

  42. Mr. Negative says:

    Storm free…

  43. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    If we can tap anysort of instibitty tmw the sheer is great for severe weather issue: high-59 cloudy. I really think Sunday is a much better chance

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      in fact I would not be shocked to be in a slight risk area on sunday

  44. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    It looks like today would be a nice time to be hanging out on the west side of Kansas City by Legends Mall watching the storms roll in over the plains. It’s a toasty 36.3° here with clear skies at this time.

  45. Kimoeagle says:

    Well, so far I see this from our (IWX)NWS office regarding significant weather: .LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON… WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
    The SPC ‘second day”s bottom line: THUS…THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER — LIKELY TO BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH BANDS/LINES OF STRONGER STORMS — IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/SWRN OH ACROSS KY AND TN AND INTO NRN MS/ERN AR…AS CONVECTION REACHES A PEAK DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
    And, some scattered T-storms and rain thru the next 36 hours. In the meantime, temps are balmy (61F) right now as that SW flow continues, and the bar.press. has just leveled off, currently 29.92″ in Angola. I don’t see anything violent coming this way……

  46. Kimoeagle says:

    And on this balmy 70F afternoon, the wind is kicking up a bit…with the bar. pressure now down to 29.60″ and dropping. That low must be moving in pretty close.

  47. Kimoeagle says:

    At 8 pm.,winds are kicking up pretty good – gale force, at least, and temperatures at 61F, with the bar. pres. apparently bottoming out at 29.48″ here in NE Indiana.

  48. Kimoeagle says:

    At 11pm, winds still whistling through the trees here in NE Indiana. Temp: 51.6F, Bar. Pressure: 29.65″ and rising.

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