Monday AM

October 15th, 2012 at 4:08 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local With a chance of a few showers this AM, I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog.  We had 2.32″ of rain in G.R. this past weekend.  There may be a lingering sprinkle/shower today…mainly this morning with the best chance north of I-96.  Most of Tuesday will be dry.  Wednesday we get into the warm sector, with the European and GFS models taking our temperature to the upper 60s.  The NAM caribou gives us 74 for a high on Weds.  Rain moves in for Weds. night into Thursday with the NAM giving us 0.62″ and the European 0.52″.  The first two weeks of October averaged 2.6 deg. cooler than average in G.R.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy.

 

37 Responses to “Monday AM”

  1. 6:00am Monday Rain Totals From Our M.A.C. Stations
    Lansing 1.79
    Newaygo 1.46
    Breckenridge 1.65
    Middleton 1.69

    A larger number of farmers in the Breckenridge area reporting corn yields of 200+ bpa with many averaging 170 to 190 with average test weights in the 55.5 to 56.5 range with the heightest being a farmer from near Alma averaging 61.2 for one 60 acre field. His yield for that field was around 205bpa with a moisture average of 15.8 out of the field !! Soybean averages in our area also better than expected. We are on the down hill side of soybean harvest but only about 20-25% done with corn harvest with about 1.5 million bushels in with another 4-5 million to go “fall intake” another 2 million from farm storage from Jan 1 to July expected.

    1. Teresa says:

      Good to hear some farmers are fairing well. Here in central Calhoun County we had to chop about at least 1/3 more acres of corn for silage just to fill our silos. That’s giving me an indication of what to expect when we start shelling corn. Some years are better than others. I’m hoping next year will be better!

  2. Laker says:

    Alright, October…time to dry out and get cold for bow season.

    1. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

      Agreed, The first week was ok with cool temps in the morning. But this warmer weather stuff sucks. Im ready for some snow for hunting and ice fishing.

  3. fixxxer says:

    hey bill can we get some sun please? getting sick of this gloom & doom weather. no wonder soo many people get seasonal depression.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I did see some some yesterday between the rain storms. But cloudy days will be the general rule now for some time, it just goes with the territory so while we may not like it we will just have to live with it.
      for me right now its not that big a issue as I had cataract surgery and on the cloudy days I do not need to wear sun glasses while on sunny days I do. So I guess with ever dark cloud there is a silver lining, LOL
      SlimJim

      1. fixxxer says:

        would be nice to have a few days of just sun.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looks like the GR area has a rather good coverage of rain as both the airport and myself ended had 2.32″ of rain for the weekend event. Right now its very cloudy and 48° here in my neck of the woods.
    SlimJim

  5. fixxxer says:

    at least it looks like after today we will be a bit on the milder side.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Don’t look now; here comes another big system that will give us crap weather during the second half of the week.

      Click Here for animation

      Summary of what to expect:

      Wednesday: Ahead of the cold front, expect warm temperatures (maybe highs in the 70s!) with winds bringing up warm air from the south.

      Wednesday night: cold front comes through with a fair amount of rain, maybe some rumbles of thunder.

      Thursday: Cooler. Dry slot.

      Friday: Wrap-around moisture on the backside of the Low gives us rain showers.

      1. fixxxer says:

        You and your data.

        1. Brad says:

          Facts are great. We need more members of the fact-based community!

  6. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Looks warm the next two weeks! 60′s and 70′s. Perfect baseball weather!

  7. fixxxer says:

    Might hit the low 70s this week…bring it on!

  8. big Daddy BC says:

    I think we’ve had enough warm. I find this graphic interesting, especially on the cusp of Bill’s recent claim that it’s not actually getting warmer.

    http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/sep/warmest_12months.png

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Hardly. LOL This just in, the moon’s made of cheese! How can you fools claim the Earth isn’t warming just after the warmest September in history, the hottest nine months in history, the hottest month EVER was July, and this is officially the hottest decade in history. I realize your blog buddy, Watts, keeps selling that crap, but politics aside, don’t you feel foolish for buying it?

        http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/us/2012/sep/warmest_12months.png

        BTW, the Arctic melt broke yet another record and better than 60% of our country is still in a drought that started in 2010! LOL

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s not the “warmest September in history” globally, and you have to use “adjusted” (airbrushed: http://zapruder.nl/images/uploads/screenhunter3qk7.gif ) temperatures to get to that point for the Lower 48. There is no way that we were hotter in 2012 than in the mid 1930s. The highest temperature of the month of July 2012 in G.R. was four degrees cooler than the hottest day of July 1936. The hottest week of July 2012 in G.R. was nearly five degrees cooler than the hottest week of 1936.

          24 states still have their hottest temperature ever from the 1930s…NONE from 2012: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes

          Globally, the average temperature since 1/1/12 is +0.027 degree…or about 1/50th of a degree warmer than average…hardly a catastrophe worth “skyrocketing” utility rates and $9 a gallon gasoline prices.

          Here in G.R., August was exactly average…Sept. was +0.1 degree from average and so far October is 3 degrees cooler than average.

          http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s the drought monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ Grand Rapids is in it even though we are already up to our average rainfall for October and the month is only half over.

          Arctic ice extent is now HIGHER than it was on this date five years ago: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

          Antarctic ice extent remains at near all-time, historic record extent: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png (very significant growth in the past year).

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Actually, the adjustment is on the average NOAA is comparing to. The only airbrushing is a .5 degree increase to average which brings the disparity down. September 2012 is easily the hottest September on record. The same is true about the last 9 months being the hottest consecutive 9 months in history. It’s also the hottest summer, the hottest month (July) ever, and the hottest decade. Use as many blogs as you want to substantiate your claims, but if you expect the public to take you seriously you’ll search out a credible source or two. Good luck.

          BTW, The NSIDC IS credible, but what you’re failing to report is why the Antarctic is melting more slowly than the Arctic. Be honest and tell the truth about the Antarctic Vortex.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          THE ANTARCTIC ISN’T MELTING!!!!! LOOK:

          http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png The icecap hit a historic HIGH EXTENT in September. The icecap is significantly bigger than one year ago and way above the historic average.

          http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png The Antarctic icecap has been growing since the mid 1980s.

          The S. Pole Station set a record low temperature in June and the Amundsen station was more than 8 degrees colder than average in July.

          And now the Arctic icecap is bigger than it was five years ago on this date: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~lizsmith/SEES/ozone/class/Chap_11/11_3.htm

          The Antarctic experiences a polar vortex that is much more isolated and longer lasting than the arctic. For this reason, the S. Pole is better insulated in winter from the effects of climate change than the north. So this year, while the Arctic was melting to well below the record melt, the Antarctic was spared. Now keep in mind, it is winter in the south while we experience summer here. But that aside, while the rest of the world was experiencing world record heating, the Antarctic was spared. I’ve linked a relatively detailed description of the process for those interested.

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          Further analysis by the World Met Assoc. sheds even more light on ice growth under warming conditions. Doesn’t get more credible than that.
          http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI4136.1

          “The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass. This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions both above and below during the period 1979–2004 and the extended period 1948–2004.”

          Both explanations are based in sound science and not political fodder the way so much of the hyperbole you post on here is.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Your link to the definition of the Antarctic vortex means nothing. Nothing in your link discusses the increase in Antarctic ice: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png You might as well have linked to the definition of a cucumber.

          If the climate is changing in Antarctica, it’s getting colder of late! The S. Pole set a new record low temperature in June and July was 8.1 degrees colder than average. In September, Antarctica was the coldest continent relative to average. Look at the sea surface water temperature anomaly map: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.10.15.2012.gif The water is colder than average all around Antarctica because the air coming off Antarctica has been cold.

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          If I thought typing it more slowly would help, I’d do it.

          From the article: “The figure shows extremely cold temperatures are found over Antarctica during winter, averaging about 183K (-90°C or -130°F) at 50 hPa (20km) in early August. These temperatures are contained inside the polar vortex region. The winds are predominantly westerly, with a slight north-south component, which means that little mixing of warmer air from lower latitudes occurs.” Consequently, the S.P. is warming more slowly. The second article explains the mechanism for ice production.
          It says:
          “Estimates of sea ice extent based on satellite observations show an increasing Antarctic sea ice cover even though in situ observations show a prevailing warming trend in both the atmosphere and the ocean.” It goes on to say, “The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass. This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions…”

          So there you have it, Mr. Cucumber.

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          BTW, your second link puts ice at WELL below average.

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          My second link is sea-surface temperatures ( http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.10.15.2012.gif ) and it shows the colder than average water all around Antarctica. Antarctic ice extent is at a historic maximum and has shown significant growth in the past year:

          My first link: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png CLEARLY shows that the Antarctic icecap is NOT SHRINKING.

          Antarctic ice has grown for the past 25 years: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png Does that graph look like a global warming catastrophe?

          ALSO: Fastest monthly refreeze in the Arctic in history!!! Check this out: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png We already have a greater ice extent than five years ago!!

          Temperatures have been COLDER THAN AVERAGE in Antarctica. The South Pole set a record low temperature in June. In July, they were 8.1 degrees COLDER than average. In September Antarctica was the coldest continent relative to average.

        11. big Daddy BC says:

          First of all I don’t believe you’re naive enough to think that SEA ICE and land ice are the same thing. Both of your graphs show sea ice. Scientists aren’t worried about seasonal ice, Bill, they’re worried about glaciers. Come on, man. Secondly, I gave you two solid scientific pieces that besides confusing you, demonstrated how Antarctica is different than the rest of the world. Sea ice is not a good climate barometer for the reasons stated above, so if that’s all you have, you’re finished.

          Maybe another link to Watts about now. LOL

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          Your comment makes no sense. Look at this. This is Antarctic ice. Note the gradual increase in the icecap for over 25 years! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png It’s not “seasonal ice” if it’s been increasing for 100 seasons!!

          The biggest difference between the Arctic icecap and the Antarctic icecap is that the Arctic icecap (sans Greenland) is over an ocean…like ice cubes in a glass of water. If the ice in the glass melts, the glass does not overflow because the ice is displacing water. The vast majority of the Antarctic icecap is on land…and that icecap is NOT MELTING…it’s GROWING!! INCREASING!! GETTING BIGGER!! So sea level is holding steady. I know it’s not a problem because this guy buys property by the Pacific Ocean: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/05/how-green-is-al-gores-9-million-montecito-ocean-front-villa/1#.UIC-vWcV-So

          And before you ask, the polar bears are doing fine: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/ You still can’t find me a picture of a polar bear that died from global warming.

          Now, check this out: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2946882/posts

        13. big Daddy BC says:

          So why then are you putting up graphics that describe floating ice? Floating ice IS seasonal. I hope you’re aware of that. I get that you don’t understand the mechanisms in the studies I posted, but that doesn’t make them wrong. Frankly I didn’t expect you to understand the mechanisms, but the abstracts were fairly simple. Read them again. It is possible for seasonal ice to grow in a warming world.

          I’m not sure why you’re rehashing the polar bear thing. I did send you a pic, btw. Must have slipped your mind. Again, try finding a scientific site to support your positions. Links to right wing activists are hardly worthy of our discussion. The arctic has melted back so far this year that bears will have to wait a month and a half longer than normal to get back out on the ice. Time delays like that, year after year, will chip away at an already declining population. http://img.scoop.it/15bIH-Ok0sx-I9RylztUdzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBVaiQDB_Rd1H6kmuBWtceBJ

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          The ARCTIC icecap (excluding Greenland) is floating ice. The vast majority of the Antarctic icecap sits on land. Again: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png The Antarctic icecap has been growing steadily for 25 years. It’s not seasonal ice if it lasts for 100 seasons!

          I tried to track down your picture. Polar bears do die, but if there were really hundreds of dead polar bears from “global warming” we could find picture. Go here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article4099460/ and here: http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf

          Biggest monthly gain EVER in the historic record (satellite era) for Arctic Ice: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png You can see there is more ice than on this date five years ago.

        15. big Daddy BC says:

          No one’s denying that floating ice is bigger this winter/year than in some previous ones. I’ve already conceded that several times. What I won’t concede is that land ice is growing. If you have some data to support THAT claim, produce it.

          I’ve given you two different studies that explain how sea ice can grow despite global warming. This one is from the World Met. Assoc. Are you a member?
          http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI4136.1 So far you’ve been unable to refute either.

          This one describes the vortex phenomena that insulates the Antarctic during winter. http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~lizsmith/SEES/ozone/class/Chap_11/11_3.htm

          What do you want to bet that as the vortex dissipates, the Antarctic will melt back to record conditions and lose even more land ice?

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          The Antarctic Vortex has nothing to do with why the Antarctic ice has been increasing. It’s like if you gave me a description of the Hadley Cell. It’s been COLD in the Antarctic! The S. Pole set a record low temperature in June. The S. Pole was more than 8 degrees colder than average in July. Antarctic was the coolest continent relative to average in September. The land ice isn’t decreasing in Antarctica. You really need to move beyond the grant-happy people at PIOMAS and look at actual temperature data:

          http://www.climate4you.com/images/70-90S%20MonthlyAnomaly%20Since1957.gif

        17. big Daddy BC says:

          Neither of those publications were from PIOMAS. Hadley Cells partially cause the vortex which prevents the mixing of air during the winter months. It has everything to do with ice. When it’s colder, ice grows.

        18. Bill Steffen says:

          Try again – the first article is by Zhang, Univ. of WA. Also, when it’s colder – be skeptical of grant-happy, regulation-happy, middle class-wealth destroying, partisan, regressive, repressive global warming alarmists.

  9. Tim says:

    Great, we could have snow just in time for the World Series, which I think game three would be Friday the 26th in the Ameican leauge city (hopefully Detroit)

  10. Jim S. (North of Parchment) says:

    I’m late with my report, but I recorded 3.2″ during the weekend rain event. Saturday evening we had 4 or 5 downpours of 5 to 10 minute duration that were quite impressive. Even scared the cat.

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