October 19th, 2012 at 3:11 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local TIGERS WIN!!! The Yankees had as many errors as hits (2) and they had scored only 6 runs in 4 games. The Tigers had 46 hits in the 4 games and NY had less than half (22).    During the night, a lake-enhanced band of rain produced 1/2 to 1″ rainfall amounts from NW Muskegon Co. up past Mason Co.  Ludington had 2/3rds of an inch of rain from 8 PM to 2 AM.  Today (Fri.) is the 17th day out of the last 20 days with at least a trace of rain.  The European model gives G.R. another 0.21″ of rain today/tonight, 0.04″ Saturday, 0.35″ Monday night/Tuesday and 0.15″ Thursday.  Tuesday it takes us to 70 and then low-mid 70s on Weds., which looks at this point to be the nicest day of the bunch.  We’ll start next week nearly 2 degrees cooler than average for Oct., but I bet we make that up next week.  Halloween is still looking cool.

Next week could be interesting.   A major storm centered along the U.S. Canadian border could bring gusty winds and maybe even a thunderstorm to W. Michigan.  The link is to the GFS model.  The European is weaker.   If this pans out, we could see blizzard or near blizzard conditions from ND up past Winnipeg.   NOAA/CPC has amended their winter outlook, taking Michigan from quite warm to Equal Chances.  I agree with this change.  Old Man Winter is going to spend a little time in Michigan this winter.  There’s a big high pressure center over N. Canada next week…and a bigger 1062 high over Greenland.  Here’s a MODIS picture from 10/8.  Note the red color east of Traverse City and north of Higgins/Houghton Lakes.  That’s the fall colors, viewed from space.  Firefighters are tackling a number of fires in western S.D.  Strong wind gusts up to 82 mph were reported in the Black HillsEight people were injured as tornadoes struck E. Arkansas and W. Mississippi Weds. PM.  Cold is setting up in Siberia already.  I see Verkoyansk had a high/low of +5/-9F on Thursday.  Yakutat, Alaska had 8.1″ of snow on Weds.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy.

117 Responses to “Friday”

  1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

    The GFS is still being consistant about the cooler air later this month through early next month, so we’ll see if that pans out!? Could lead to some L.Effect!!!

  2. tech says:

    A wind gust of 113 miles per hour was registered at 5:47 P.M. on Thursday, October 18 at Consumers Energy’s J.H. Campbell Electric Generating Complex in Ottawa County’s Port Sheldon Township. The National Weather Service was notified of the event, consistent with site policy.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      How high up was that??

      1. tech says:

        Anemometer is approximately 150 feet above the ground.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      That is why we take the sailboats out of the water =)… and ice I guess.

    3. Cort S. says:

      Interesting. I’ll do a partial, unofficial investigation. Here is what the radar looked like at 5:48 p.m. yesterday, at about 2200 feet above ground:
      UL: Reflectivity.
      UR: Base radial velocity
      LL: Spectrum width
      LR: Storm-relative radial velocity
      The J.H. Campbell complex is located at the red dot.

      Some shallow, lake-enhanced convective showers with small hail passing through. The velocities on radar are far from severe. It does not seem likely that this was a microburst. What I can’t rule out is there could have been a quick, localized vortex spin-up underneath the updraft portion of that shower, enhanced by the lake, which hit the anemometer. Maybe a waterspout? Who knows. If it’s not that or some sort of wind tunneling effect, then the other option is a bad measurement taken by the instrument. Are there any trees or structures nearby that would show signs of damage from 113 mph? That could provide another clue.

      1. Mike Geukes says:

        There is a township park on Lake Michigan, called Port Sheldon Park,that you can look off to east you can see the power plant. I been there a couple of times with a hand held anemometer in the fall, and there was a good pressure gradient, from a storm system and measured winds on the beach in the 70-75 mph before. The park sits in kinda of bowl, with dunes, banks on both sides. The highest elevation is to the south and east to of the park. If you zoom in to the area, you can get a better idea of the topography. Copy and paste if URL is too big.

        1. Mike Geukes says:

          Click on satellite for the image or you can use Google Earth,

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      My first guess is that it’s incorrect. A wind that fast doesn’t come thru without doing some damage. At 5:47 PM, someone would have noticed (heard) a wind like that. Spyglass will on rare occasion have a gust that high and it turns out to be incorrect.

  3. INDY says:

    3 day storm keeps rolling good news get ready for low 70′s Sun,Mon and Tue!!INDY SUMMER IS COMING!!!! GO NORTHVIEW INDYY…..

  4. storm waning says:

    “Old Man Winter is going to spend a little time in Michigan this winter.”

    That’s great because that’s exactly what he did last year, only it was very, very little time. Looks like another warm and short winter at this point. Unless that sentence means the opposite……….? Naw, way to early for any of that talk yet! Long range fore-guesses don’t work

  5. kevin. w says:

    If the JMA model is right like it predicted last winter then its going to be a good winter for winter sports and ice fishing. Also the model shows no signs of winter letting up until early April and also is predicting way above average snowfall for lakes as well. Enjoy the next 10-12 days because after October is done its looking like the first few week of November could be pretty chilly.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      AS long as I don’t get a tornado in March again I am all good with whatever winter brings.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Awesome – I’ll keep looking for our second snowmobile :-)

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It sounds nice however there is a .00000001 percent chance of this actually happening!

  6. mike[kalamazoo county] says:

    This month has reminded me alot of the fall of 1988 rain about every day. Still need at least 5 good sunny days in a row to finish soybeans. Water levels in my part of the world are coming up fast, that is a good thing if we have to irrigate alot next summer.

  7. Jim S (North of Parchment) says:

    @mike[kalamazoo county], I’ve recorded 4 inches since last Saturday thru Friday A.M. I need a little dry weather so I can start removing the oak leaves that have started accumulating in my yard.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Water is FINALLY trickling over the outlet for Gun Lake – which was 4 to 6″ below the top of the dam all summer.

  8. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

    Doesn’t look like it will be stopping for some time today, really hoping it quits by 3-4pm today. It can rain all day Saturday as I will be at the Casino. But not looking like its going to!

    1. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

      I meant all day Sunday***

  9. fixxxer says:

    what a crappy fall so far.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It has been a great fall. Plenty of sun nice temps!

  10. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Take it for what you will – Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook:


    1. Cort S. says:

      Cool! Sounds a lot like my “signal buried beneath noise level” novella that I wrote on one of the previous blog threads.

    2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      “This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”

  11. Bluewind says:

    If we have another mild winter and warm/dry spring and summer,I will seriously considered moving. I can’t run my business in this state anymore.

    1. Barbara Egeler-Bailey says:

      There’s no denying the climate is changing fast in the Midwest. That’s why I’m putting in native plants instead of grass.

      1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

        I know it’s changing….resulting in MORE annual snowfall, in some areas substantially more. We had one below average snowfall winter, and people are somehow convinced the snow and cold is done for good in Michigan. Within the last 5 years, we’ve had the 2nd and 3rd snowiest winters EVER…keep that in mind.

      2. Stephen says:

        Another nut case on the blog. WELCOME your new friend little daddy BC

      3. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Better plant palm trees then.

      4. big Daddy BC says:

        Another nut case that believes every scientific organization on Earth. LOL Stephen, turn FOX NEWS off and pick up a periodical.

        1. Stephen says:

          Fox News no thanks i dont wanna here about Fartinamitten Romney

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Right-Wing Blog Alert******************Look away, children!

        1. Bluewind says:

          You know whats really sick? That Al Gore won over her:

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          I’d bet that Exxon pays the gwpf’s bills? LOL

          It’s funny that you refuse to believe temp monitoring stations today, but trust estimates of temps from ten centuries ago – when they support your ridiculous cause.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          …More right wing blogs, Bill. Can’t find any scientific evidence?

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          Perfect example, thanks. Mike M probably made that one.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          We don’t care about your page views, but we do care about your lies.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          You should care about your own lies…like when you said that Romney was a polygamist! He’s not. You lied. We can’t trust anything you say.

    1. Jack says:

      Roflmao…Love it.. Thanks Mike M. ;-) :-)

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      LOL – Ah, my old “wheels off” picture that I think I used 16 weeks in a row for the Lions Season in 2008!

    3. Bluewind says:

      Eh,Mr.Romney will be held in the same regard in a few years if he wins. I really can’t stand either of ‘em. Don’t know who to vote for.

      1. Jack says:

        Vote For ME!,,!!!!!!! ;-)

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        Vote for the rich white guy. The last one really brought us such prosperity and peace.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          As opposed to voting for the rich black and white guy and his rich Vice President. (

          This affects everybody. It’s not necessary and it would REALLY hurt the budgets of the middle class, the lower class, minorities, the elderly, those on fixed income and children.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Bill’s right. It does affect everyone. The rich white guy wants you to pay for his tax breaks. He wants to deregulate his rich banker friends, and he wants your insurance to cost more money. We’re tired of rich people expecting us to pay their bills. Enough is enough.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Sorry, big D – the middle class doesn’t want “skyrocketing” utility bills and $9 a gallon “European level” gasoline.

          It’s not only Gallup (Romney up 3%) and Rasmussen (Romney up 4%) but also ABC/Washington Post! (Romney up 1%).

          Look at where the candidates are…Romney’s in Nevada/Colorado/Iowa and Ohio – the campaign’s have given Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to Romney.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          No they don’t, Bill. And they don’t want a tax plan that takes their money and gives it to Mitt Romney and friends. Congrats on Mitt’s move of .4 up the poles. It’s a statistical dead heat, like it is every election except the last one. But you know as well as I that Romney doesn’t have a Mormon prayer of winning the electoral college. He need VA, FL AND Ohio. Of course with the right set of magic underwear, who knows. LOL

          It was over before it began. Besides, Mitt’s wife’s been out telling reporters what they’re going to do ‘should’ Mitt lose. LOL

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          If you’re so sure of the election, then take my bet…Romney wins Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Count on it. It’ll be very close in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Romney’s got an outside shot in Wisconsin – look at how you and your trash-the-Capitol-building bullies got trounced by Scott Walker. He won by 2% more than he did in the 2010 election! You can tell what’s in play by watching where the candidates go and where they are spending money. Romney is in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada. He doesn’t have to go to Florida or N. Carolina – he’s got them! Romney was in Reno – packed house and then some! Reno is where the #1 newspaper endorsed him after endorsing Obama in 2008: Just like the Orlando Sentinel: Romney won the 3-debate package. He’s winning over women and independents.

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          Even if Romney wins Florida, unlikely. He still loses the election. He’ll never get WI, btw. What a shame the guy named after the mitten can’t even win Michigan. I bet he regrets saying Detroit should go bankrupt. How can you support this guy?

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          PLEASE! Bet me on Florida!! I’ll bet you $100 – and if you win, I’ll not only give you $100, but I’ll give $100 to the Red Cross. We’ll each give the $100 to a 3rd party (Red Cross HQ here in G.R. or Kalamazoo if you like).

          The latest poll shows Michigan a toss-up:

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          Michigan has been six down for Romney consistently for the last three months. Your FOX NEWS poll is BS.

          I’ve accepted your offers to bet many times. You don’t honor them when you lose, goes to your dishonest nature. Florida, unlike MI, is actually a toss-up, but it’s irrelevant. Ohio’s the prize this year and it’s not looking good for the animal abusing, baby killing mormon.

          The right’s been inflating the polls these last few weeks, but it’s having zero affect in the states that matter. Thank goodness.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          If Michigan really is 6 points in favor of Obama…that’s a 10 point swing from 2008 and if that’s the case nationally…that Romney does 10 points better than McCain…then Romney has a comfortable win. The McCollum poll has Michigan EVEN:

  12. Mindy says:

    It amazes me how politics finds it’s way on a WEATHER BLOG. I come to the Weather Blog to get away for all crap on TV !!!!!!

    1. Brad says:

      Hmmm…that post is in the margin of error of being political ;-) .

    2. big Daddy BC says:

      Mindy, this is not merely a weather blog. It’s also a corporate soapbox for LIN Media. If you want weather, go to WWMT.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        There he goes, the corporate marionette, his values eroded away years ago by greed. Look away children.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Greed is running 1.6 TRILLION dollar deficits every year…stealing the wealth of our children to pay for crony scandals: 535 million dollars in tax dollars and we got nothing for it…money down a rat hole…and the private investors lost nothing (unlike the bondholders at GM and Chrysler). If you cared about kids, you’d care about the deficits and you’d say no more crony scandals like Solyndra!

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Greed is stealing from the middle class to pay for Mitt Romney’s billionaire friends’ tax breaks.

          “…Romney, according to his tax estimate for 2011, paid a “lower tax rate than a nurse or a bus driver.” HOLY COW!!

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Romney gave away all that money to get himself in a different tax bracket. Besides, donating money to the Mormon church’s stain glass window endowment isn’t the kind of charity we need. What we need is for people like Romney to pay their fair share in taxes. He pays a lower percent than waitresses, plumbers, and teachers.

          He’s a slimy tax dodger and he doesn’t stand a chance of winning.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Rolling Stone? You’re kidding, right? That’s where you get your financial information? Even if you take out contributions to religious organizations, conservatives give more money to charity than leftists:

    3. Mike M. says:

      Politics came to weather when “progressives” and “socialists” and “communists” and “Democrats” figured out how to use it as a gun to hold you up. When they stop trying to steal our money then we’ll stop talking about it on the weather blogs. In the meantime, go sit at the small table.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Here’s some climate for ya: Arctic icecap has greatest one month increase in extent in (satellite) history! More ice now than on this date five years ago.

        Antarctic ice extent sets a historic record extent in September: Much more ice than one year ago and waaaaaay above the historic average.

        Global temperature almost exactly average for 2012:

        1. Mike M. says:

          Alaska, India, China, Africa, and Australia all below normal and all they can yammer about is the 48 state contiguous “record” heat.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          That’s not weather, Bill. It’s climate. Although I wouldn’t put it past you to stick weather in as climate when it suits you.

          Mike M, You’re still a wacko fudgetard. July was the hottest month in the entire northern hemisphere. The arctic has melted back to a world record low. This last decade is the hottest on record for the whole PLANET. Buy a periodical.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Today marks 7 years since a major hurricane (category 3-5) hit the U.S. That’s the longest we’ve ever gone with a major hurricane hit.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          But GLOBAL temperature for 2012 (that’s BOTH hemispheres for 9 1/2 months, not just 1) is exactly average:

          Also 24 states have all-time record high temperatures from the 1930s…not a single state set an all-time record high this summer or last summer. Not one.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          But weatherball is a right-wing sponsored activist site. How about a link to somewhere credible. We don’t trust your ‘facts.’

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          “Weatherball”??? Now you’re insulting Channel 13? August was 0.4 degrees cooler than average in Alaska – that’s a big chunk of real estate.

          Here’s the raw NASA data, you can plot it yourself and you’ll get the same graph:

          This is the temperature data from a total of eleven instruments flying on eleven different satellites since the satellite data began in 1979. This is raw data, not “adjusted” (tampered with).

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Weatherbell is Maue’s site. Maue is Limbaugh’s ‘man in the field.’ I don’t think we’re gonna trust Limbaugh on climate. Sorry. LOL

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          The link above is from the Univ. of Alabama – Huntsville. It’s raw NASA data…go ahead…plot it yourself.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        100% ignorant and childish!

        1. Mike M. says:

          You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means, Mr. Light-in-the-loafers.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          …a bigoted remark. That’s not like you, Mike M. LOL
          You’re still an idiot.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Bill, you’re an idiot too, although you’re probably the same person. You’ve been known to post under multiple names.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          And all you’ve ever had is teabagger rhetoric and fossil fuel sponsored ‘science.’ What’s funny is that even Exxon admits that they’re causing climate change. Pull your head out.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Boy, you just have nothing left, do you…nothing! Shootin’ air balls, wiffin’ on a hangin’ curve!

          Like you believe anything Exxon says. The truth is that global temperatures have been steady for a decade: and


        6. big Daddy BC says:

          More blogs, Bill? LOL

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Your link says: “Weather: Hurricanes in the Atlantic are likely to become more intense as ocean temperatures rise.”

          Reality: Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy has in general gone DOWN since the mid 1990′s and it’s now been a record long +7 years since a category 3 storm hit the U.S. (and Sandy will not be category 3…it may not even be a hurricane when the center comes on shore (could be a category 1).

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          Your link is to a right-wing blog again. Doesn’t count. Try again.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          Colin Powell endorsed Obama last time out. That endorsement won’t change 25 votes. What will change minds is all the people and press that voted or supported Obama in 2008, but are supporting Romney in 2012. Here’s two papers in swing states that supported Obama in 2008 but have switched to support Romney. Check it out:


        10. big Daddy BC says:

          General Powell was Bush’s man. Now he’s in the Obama camp on foreign policy. Be serious, this endorsement is HUGE. Even the Bush team thinks Obama’s better for national security. Romney’s got zero on every issue that counts. He can’t tell you how he’s gonna pay for tax cuts for the rich. He can’t tell you how he’s gonna handle Iran, hell he thinks Russia’s the biggest threat worldwide. He’s a lot like you in that he thinks the cold war is still on. LOL OOOOOO…the RED scare!!

          Obama’s done more to destroy terrorist networks than any president in history. He even killed the world’s most wanted terrorist. Bush couldn’t even find WOMD! Now Romney wants to fight Russia. LOL

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          Powell’s endoresment won’t change 20 votes. What WILL change votes is the number of newspapers that endorsed Obama in 2008 that are endorsing ROMNEY in 2012. Look at the Des Moines Register. The only time they endorsed a Republican was Nixon in 1972 – 40 YEARS AGO!

          The major newspapers in Orlando, FL and Reno NV that both endorsed Obama in 2008 have endorsed Romney in 2012.

          From the Cincinnati Enquirer (an influential paper in the most important swing state:

          “”President Barack Obama has had four years to overcome the job losses of the Great Recession he inherited, but the recovery has been too slow and too weak. It’s time for new leadership from Mitt Romney, a governor and business leader with a record of solving problems.”

  13. Barbara Egeler-Bailey says:

    I’m FINALLY getting enough rain in my area so my plants/grass can grow.

    1. fixxxer says:

      little too late to be worried about any grass growing. at least now i think we can say the drought is done and gone.

  14. Nathan says:

    What a beautiful football frenzy tonight!

    1. Jack says:

      Go… G. R. Christian EAGLES….!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Big win for Christian tonight

        1. Jack says:

          Oh, Yeah !,,,! ,!!!!!! Thanks SIR Bill… ;-)

  15. Skot says:

    Possibly warm again next. Seems this Michigan summer type weather wont give up without a fight.

    1. fixxxer says:

      i sure hope it pans out and we get some sun.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I 100% agree, we needed the rain badly but not it’s time for fun in the sun

  16. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Anyone from the Rockford area know what the river level is right now. I will be doing some salmon fishing up there Sunday.

  17. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Our Indian Summer is coming next week so enjoy I have a feeling were going to be having a lot more crapsatic days

  18. Mindy says:

    Well, if you Can’t beat em, join them!! OBAMA ROCKS !!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Bluewind says:

      Its crazy how much older Obama looks since ’08. I would never want to know all the things a President knows.

    2. big Daddy BC says:

      +2!!! VOTE OBAMA! VOTE PROP 2!!!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Read more about proposal 2 here:

        Latest Polls out today: Gallup has Romney +5, Rasmussen (the most accurate poll in 2008) has Romney +2, ABC/Washington Post and Pew have it tied. Polls out today also show Romney ahead in Florida, Ohio and Colorado.

  19. Mindy says:

    Good one Bill !!!!! I Like the latest new one out ROMNESIA !!!!!!! LOL. With
    the Ground soaked with Rain, time to get the SNOW FENCE ready !!! Should be easy pounding the Posts in the soaked Ground!!

  20. Bruiseviolet (Cedar Springs) says:

    Oops, I think someone posted the wrong 8 day forecast =)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      A computer glitch…it was corrected shortly thereafter.

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