Wednesday

October 23rd, 2012 at 4:15 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook  Most of the storms will be west of us today.  Our best chance of more showers and storms will be with the cold front after sunset on Thursday.  48-hour rainfall:  2.54″ Holland, 1.58″ Grand Rapids (airport), 1.47″ Benton Harbor, 1.25″ Muskegon, 0.91″ Kalamazoo, 0.88″ Lansing, 0.83″ Battle Creek.  Rainfall today:  0.71″ Boatwerks in Holland, 0.60″ Grand Haven, 0.34″ WOOD-TV in G.R.   Monthly rainfall:  6.6″ Holland, 5.57″ Muskegon, 5.44″ Grand Rapids, 4.60″ Kalamazoo, 4.58″ Battle Creek, 3.99″ Lansing.   Rainfall for the year (and departure from average).  Grand Rapids 29.63″ (-1.78″), Kalamazoo 25.13″ (-4.76), Battle Creek 22.13″ (-5.41″), Muskegon 26.84″ (+0.08″) S. Bend 30.32″ (0.96″).

The latest Euro.  gives G.R. 0.38″ of rain Thurs. evening/night with the cold front.  The Canadian, FIM and GFS keep Hurricane Sandy well offshore of the U.S. with just a glancing blow of gusty winds and rain for SE Florida and perhaps the Outer Banks of N.C.  The European model still drives it into New York and New England.  The circulation of Sandy will still help to bring some chilly air down into the eastern half of the U.S.  The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. a high of 78 on Weds. and 75 on Thurs.  The Euro. has temperatures at least into the low 70s Weds (mid 70s south) and mid 70s on Thursday…then low 50s on Friday and temperatures cool a little each day into early next week.  The airmass coming in starting Friday is dry, so any clouds, precipitation will have to be from Lake Michigan.  We only go to -4.2C at 850mb now, with the hurricane/tropical storm farther east, not the -8C that was earlier forecast Look for a hard freeze over much of the area Sunday morning and/or Monday morning.  It’ll be cool, but not outrageously cold for late October.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy.

96 Responses to “Wednesday”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    BOOOOOOOOOO on snow! ;)

  2. Jerry hoag says:

    Hello Bill, question for you. I was just watching the weather channel and they said the months of November, December and January will be warmer than normal for the Great Lakes region and through the Plains. Do you believe this fact? They mentioned the ,my spelling will be wrong but will do my best at it, the allution chain will have the alluetion ridge which will force the jet stream to dip in the Northwest and surge north over the Plains and Great Lakes region. Meaning warmer weather for us and colder weather for the Northwest. Can you check on this please? Thanks!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      In general, it’s best not to believe ANYTHING the “weather” channel says.

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      The latest winter predictions are trending this way. A little cooler than average to start and then a warmer than average back half of winter.

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd2.gif

      And the Nino conditions are fading fast. Looks to be more of a neutral winter now.

      http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/technical.html

      Also, a Greenland Block may be forming which may also lead to a snowier start to the season for us as well.

      1. kevin. w says:

        More on the Greenland block than the past and I think more winter longer than the past but will also depend alot on the snowpack that the area will have. Looks like an interesting one Travis.

  3. Jerry hoag says:

    Bill, if what I wrote and asked is true, can you explain live on tv? And give us all the good news?

  4. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Nice batch of thunderstorms heading my way!

  5. kevin. w says:

    Most of the models have the northwest U.S., western Canada and Alaska warmer than average. So if thats the case the central and eastern parts of the U.S and Canada will either average out or be a little below average when winter is said and done. Also if you look at the AO, NAO history (can’t really look at the future of it) its been in the negative to neutral stage and if you look at the pattern we’ve had the trough wants to keep coming into the eastern U.S. The part which will be hard to forecast is exactly where is the trough going to set up and where is the moisture going to go. Well if you look at this map and believe it http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif then were looking at a dry winter overall with the main precip going well south of the midwest and out to sea or up the northeast. My personal opinion on this winter’s weather is that were going to have a slightly colder than average winter with the AO, NAO staying for the most part on the neutral/negative side, last winter both were on the positive side, hence our mild winter. I also think the trough is going to set up more to our west than what most models show and the pacific ridge further off the western U.S. coast (lets hope so if we want a good winter). I do believe will have more intense lake effect events with a colder pattern and a warmer lake (after the hot summer, Ya). I also think that the colder weather will linger (IF the El Nino doesn’t show up, so far its not)more into spring (Can’t believe will have a hot March again nor a warm spring) than last year as other analog years with warmer march’s/springs
    tend to have longer winter’s/colder springs. I also feel that there will be a very large storm somewhere east of the rockies sometime over the winter/spring that will create major problems for alot of people whether it be a blizzard or a major ice storm with many without power for a long time (leaning more toward ice in the south and snow either on us or just north of us) depending on the exact track. One other note I would like to say after I write my book ( :-) ) is that this winter will be far different than last year and as we all know it was a huge bust for all. But this winter will have alot more to offer and be much more fun than what we’ve seen the past several. Why you wonder? Is the fact that every signal (except the AO, NAO) is and has been in a neutral stage and thats what makes the fun (well if thats what we can call it) for all of us predicting this winter forecast this year. So in all, my winter forecast is slightly colder than average with average/slightly above average precip. for the winter months. So I hope you understand my forecast and I would really like to here from the other bloggers on what there take is on it. Oh and please no bashing cause I think we all kinda hate that. Thanks for reading Kevin.W…

    1. Kris says:

      I hope you are right, Kevin. Thanks for the prediction – great info. Looking forward to Bill’s forecast as well.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Your long range “gesss” looks good to me at this point. I will put my long range guess out in mid April LOL That way I know I will have a good idea as to what did happen.
      SlimJim

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      It seems you’ve put a lot of research into this, and I hope you’re right!! I joined our local snowmobile club – not based on weather forecasting ability, but sheer wishful thinking….LOL!! And the nice thing about West Michigan (snow-wise) is that even if the snowfall for the Great Lakes is scant – we always have Lake Effect working in our favor!

    4. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Thanks Kevin! While many of the models give us a fairly standard winter temperature and precipitation wise (and this would not be a bad thing considering how tame it was last year), it’s nice to see a well-researched prediction of slightly above average snowfall and below normal temperatures. Either way, the uncertainty in the models and neutrality of some important long-term indicators make it more riveting.

  6. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Checked the rain gauge and had .88″ of rain here. Dose not look “dry” anymore!
    SlimJim

  7. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I do not know how long this has been out but here is the NWS offering as to the upcoming winter. As of yet there is not local input into the long range guess. But for now this long range guess looks like the one to go with and of it plays out we could get some big storms this winter.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/presentations/Winter_Outlook_for_Southwest_Lower_Michigan_2012-10-19_19-39-28.pdf

    SlimJim

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Bill Marino likens this winter to the winter of 2008/09 – I remember that one well because it felt like all I did was plow snow…..LOL!!! So as a new snowmobile owner, I look forward to that (and I have a plow service now – no more doing an acre with a plow-mounted ATV…..LOL!!)

      1. fixxxer says:

        glad i don’t shovel anymore then.

        1. Jack says:

          Ya still Shovel Fixxxer, only it’s just another S Word… Lol….. :-)

  8. INDY says:

    Severe Storms coming Mid week check on your pets and yard get them ready now! Winds of 70mph+ with heavy rain and lightning Thursday start thinking weather the storm now on Bill’s blogg!! We will TRACK IT AND BILL RACK’S IT!! stay tuned INDYY…….

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      ???????????

    2. ~Sherry~ Comstock Park says:

      I will just be glad to have some active weather! This year has been so boring weather wise!

    3. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Indy, always the optimist :)

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Well my dh has been delayed coming in tomorrow so he won’t be in until Thursday so hoping he arrives before the “Rain” comes, I just don’t feel it for any more good hefty storms for the rest of the year at least up in Redneck CedarTurkeyville.

  9. GunLakeDeb says:

    I had 1.33 inches of rain yesterday – it really came down hard last night!

  10. DerekS says:

    I too have seen the weather channel three month forecast and they are predicting an above average first half of winter.

  11. fixxxer says:

    enough with the rain. lets gets some sun & warmth.

    1. Cort S. says:

      You got it!
      Record high temperatures possible on Thursday.
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=88595&source=0

  12. Kimoeagle says:

    I am beginning to believe that we have a “bubble” down here in NE IN as well. Earlier in the AM, a large mass of rain was coming out of the SW, covering much of northern & NE IN.It’s gone now, with the remnants sliding from IND to TOL. Hm.
    — Frankly, I’m half-convinced about a ‘bubble’ already, because I’ve seen this phenomenon occur before — a number of times.
    Go figure.

  13. Mr. Negative says:

    ADA – 8/10 of an inch of rain from yesterdays precip. We’re all set with enoungh rain at the moment…enough already!

  14. fixxxer says:

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/Current.aspx

    WOW…look at that contrast in temps. much too early for that kind of cold weather.

    1. Cort S. says:

      I’ve contradicted this type of post at least three times this year. Maybe this time I’ll just agree with you. Yup… cold weather is coming. :(

      1. fixxxer says:

        I was being serious though.

        1. Cort S. says:

          So was I. That cold air is heading our way after Thursday. But if you want to know why it is such a sharp contrast in temps, and why it won’t be quite as cold here as it currently is in Montana, I can help answer that also.

        2. fixxxer says:

          Im just curious about snow on halloween. If so we can make indoor plans for the kids. Im sure the churces and malls would hand out candy.

        3. Cort S. says:

          I’ll give you a 70% chance of seeing no snow on Halloween, but it is still a little too far out to tell. Certainly depends on whether or not New England sees their powerhouse storm system.

  15. Nick (Grand Haven) says:

    Gotta love thunder and lightning!!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Its better at night though.

  16. INDY says:

    Count it!!! Hey Cort u ready for some severe storms recored highs and sun shine this Thursday????? Getting some thunder out at thee YARDofBRICKS now gots to the love the change in theee seasons this is win weather is at it’s best!! From a large sprite and feeling it tonight ….INDYY..

    1. Cort S. says:

      I hope you get some record high temperatures on Thursday, INDY! I am in New Hampshire so it’s time to stock up and lock down… big storm (maybe) coming!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Here’s hoping Sandy does NOT pay you a visit…….

    2. fixxxer says:

      Its suppose to be dry indy. But yes the mid 70′s will be nice. I wish all winter could be like that…sigh!

    3. Cort S. says:

      The showers/storms should accompany the cold front on Thursday night. Likely won’t be severe, but maybe INDY should throw some sprites into the wind and see if mother nature takes a sip!

  17. Cort S. says:

    You’re in the forecasting hot seat right now. There is a fork in the road: either Tropical Storm Sandy will get picked up by the upcoming arctic trough and turn into a huge New England storm, or it won’t be picked up and will move east into the middle Atlantic, leaving New England with nothing too significant. There doesn’t really seam to be much of a middle option. What do you choose and how do you communicate this uncertainty to the public?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Must read! :)

      EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
      NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
      329 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

      VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 – 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012

      …POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK…

      PRELIMINARY UPDATE…

      UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION.

      FINAL…

      ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY’S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM’S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

      HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH.

      1. INDY says:

        We call that thee PERRFECTTT STORMMMM!! INDYY,,

        1. fixxxer says:

          Well if an early snow means a milder winter later on im for it. Still hoping it doesnt snow until next month.

      2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        Very interesting… It’s still several days out, though. I’m intrigued as to how it will all work out.

        1. Skot says:

          Wish the wind would dry up ol’ fissster and turn him to a white spot on the concrete.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Me, the Met: (answering Cort’s original question)

      I would explain this exactly as you just did: if it goes out to sea, it will be nothing scary. If it heads NW (which is how the meteorologists are leaning for the moment) it could be “epic” in a very bad way. The prudent thing is to make folks plan ahead: how will they deal with wind/rain/loss of power, etc.

      If Sandy heads out to sea, then “they” can say I hyped the forecast and it was a “fail” once again. But if Sandy goes inland and I’ve saved one life – then it was worth it.

  18. GunLakeDeb says:

    How heavy is the rain coming across from Holland? We’re supposed to attend our grandson’s football game “under the lights” in Grandville at 7 PM. Should I wear my kayaking gear?

    1. Cort S. says:

      You find yourself in the middle of the orange area on radar, you would get a torrential downpour. There is also the threat for lightning, so be safe and play smart.

  19. INDY says:

    Hey Cort INDY tells the public [bloggers] days before the roarrr of the storm comes nothing wrong with being ready!! I really don’t like that Tropical storm getting big 2 many days out and we all no how the models look bad!!we need to worrie about this Thursday in the midwest we could be in for some Tornado’s lots of wind and sprites coming!! More thunder out at thee YRADofBRICKS nice storm coming!! INDYY…

  20. ninifere says:

    What are the chances with November looking cold and wet at this point that we make up the drought and are at or above normal precip by the end of next month?

    1. fixxxer says:

      I think the drought is done. Its been pretty wet since august.

      1. Mike Geukes says:

        Wish all this rain we had this month was snow, right Fix

        1. fixxxer says:

          You need to move to alaska mike.

    2. Cort S. says:

      Grand Rapids still has about 2 inches of precipitation deficit since the beginning of the year:

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/climate/plots/KGRRytd.png

      The short-term drought effects (agriculture) are pretty much over, but the long-term effects (hydrology, ecology) will need a good amount of precip over the winter in order to eradicate.

      http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

      Right now, the CPC’s precipitation outlook for November gives Michigan equal chances of above, near, and below normal amounts of precip. I guess that means we don’t know.

  21. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    Raining pretty good here with some thunder…

  22. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    John Dee’s winter forecast is always an interesting read: http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/seasonalforecast.htm

    1. fixxxer says:

      Seems like an honest guess, i can respect that.

      *waits for mike to post joe.b’s.

    2. Cort S. says:

      I like his “Soap Box Speech on Seasonal Forecasting” :)
      http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/soapbox.htm

    3. Irish coffee says:

      Too many caveats in his outlook,imo.He also discusses El NINO in too generic terms-as all El NIno’s are not created equal.John states area #2 stands a decent chance of abv avg precip w/ abv. avg. snfl , but his map reflects much of that area covered in YELLOW, or avg>BELOW avg. snfl?????

  23. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Closing my eyes and absorbing the sound of thunder in the distance, such beautiful music to my ears rather I will see lightning and hear good hard rumbles right over my house, who knows but I do enjoy the sound and that being said I’ve just not seen a couple flashes, I am so ready for some more beautiful storm songs. CLOSING MY EYES and absorbing this music, and a deep breath of relaxation, ah yes Thunder :-)

  24. INDY says:

    Hey swatzee U getting some good thunder up in cedertuck??? INDYUY,..

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Music to my ears with a couple good flashes, it’s actually making me crave more of it since I’ve been storm deprived!

  25. INDY says:

    Cort I forgot u are out East man u need to keep a eye eye sir on whats coming in your hood if thee good looking models are right !!! RACK STACK AND DON’T HIT THE SACK on your storm coming!!! It’s a long ways out but u gots to be ready now!!! INDYY..

    1. Cort S. says:

      You got it INDY! The GFS is still insisting that Sandy will miss us, but the Euro is still insisting on wrapping Sandy up into the trough and turning it into a huge hybrid storm!

      Here is the Euro’s forecast: http://i.imgur.com/oYkCT.gif
      Look at that cold air that spilled into the Great Lakes and Central Appalachians. It would be rain for me in New Hampshire, but quite a snowstorm for Pennsylvania, WV, Virginia, and Maryland.

      1. fixxxer says:

        They can keep that snow.

  26. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Monthly total is now up to 8.1″ here now :) is that above average Bill?

    1. Cort S. says:

      I think Muskegon Airport’s normal October rainfall amount is 5.57″.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Thank you Cort :)

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        Muskegon’s rainfall as of 9 PM for the month was 5.57″. The last I checked (and they’ve had more since) they were up to 5.69″. The average for November is 3.11″, so Muskegon has had 183% of average rainfall so far, with more to come.

        1. Cort S. says:

          Oops, you’re right. 5.57″ is their current monthly amount. 3.11″ is the normal amount. The record wettest October for Muskegon is 7.33″ in 1991.

  27. Cort S. says:

    Here is another look at what the European model wants to do to the combination of the arctic trough pivoting through the Northeast US, plus the strong post-tropical Sandy.

    http://i.imgur.com/SBaV7.jpg

    From HPC:
    THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP
    POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR
    JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC
    TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB.

    Or, you know, the deterministic GFS could be right and Sandy would head east out to sea.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      yes but what does this mean for west MI

      1. fixxxer says:

        I wouldnt worry about a snowstorm. Bill told me the chances are about 10%.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          There is a .0000000000001% chance of a snowstorm, however all of this speculation is entertaining!

        2. fixxxer says:

          Ill trust bill over you rj.

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          ROCK ON fixxxer!

      2. Cort S. says:

        If this solution were to verify exactly, West Michigan would be on the western edge of that system’s influence at that particular point in time. Cold air will have already spilled in (due to arrive on Friday no matter what), and it should linger at least into the first part of next week. Unless the storm system curls farther westward, West Michigan would be more under the influence of high pressure, so the weather would be quite tame.

        If the remnants of Sandy head out to sea and spare the Northeast, it should still be a pretty similar story for Michigan. The weather systems coming in from the west would be a bit more progressive instead of getting temporarily blocked by the storm. The GFS, for example, is calling for a wave of low pressure to move through Michigan on Tuesday night/Weds morning, bringing some cold rain.

  28. INDY says:

    That would be great to get a BIG DADDY snow storm out of that for Michigan!! INDYY..

    1. Skot says:

      you Mean Fixxxer “Daddy”? aka?

      1. fixxxer says:

        Lol in your dreams.

        1. Skot says:

          reality bites.

  29. Katie in Kentwood says:

    I am up in Harrison right now (north of Mt. Pleasant and Clare) and it is SO FOGGY you can barely see down the street! So cool.

  30. Scott (west olive) says:

    .30 rain today here (seems low for how hard it rained) 6.58 for month.

  31. Cort S. says:

    The problem that meteorologists in the Northeast US are facing, summed up by NWS New York City:

    .Long Term /Thursday through Tuesday/…
    Forecast complexities arise early next week…specifically with the
    handling of the post-tropical phase of Tropical Storm Sandy early
    next week. NHC forecasts Sandy to move nearly due north toward the
    Bahamas through Fri morning and then northeast thereafter…becoming
    a post-tropical cyclone upon reaching 31N 70.5W by Sunday morning.
    Its interaction with a developing omega block consisting of a
    blocking upper high over the North Atlantic…an ocean storm over
    the central north Atlantic…and a digging…negatively tilted upper
    trough from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley…is critical in
    determining the future evolution of this storm. There could still be
    a window of opportunity for the storm to undercut the block and head
    east into the open Atlantic per the operational GFS…some GFS
    ensemble members and the global GEM…but at the same time a growing
    number of GFS ensemble members are siding with the more consistent
    ECMWF solution of taking the storm northward along 70W
    thereafter…and making a NW turn back toward the east coast by
    Mon-Tue as the storm phases with and/or undergoes Fujiwara
    interaction with the digging upper trough…and as the downstream
    blocking high offers little chance of an out-to-sea path. Where and
    when any such NW turn of the storm would take place…and at what
    intensity…are highly uncertain…as the ECMWF could be too phased/
    amplified and too far west…and as the NW-bending GFS ensemble
    members disagree on the point of any NW recurvature…occurring
    anywhere from 55W to 70W. Forecast details necessarily remain
    sketchy at this point. Windy conds…heavy rain and some coastal
    flooding could eventually become likely…with a worst case
    scenario of flooding rains…damaging winds…and significant
    coastal flooding…for parts of the area. Stay tuned.

  32. Tyler says:

    A snowstorm is very possible on Halloween. Minneapolis Minnesota had their biggest snowfall ever for an entire winter that fell from Halloween to November 3rd one year. Duluth in the same storm had 36 inches fall! The Twin Cities ended up with 28 inches!

  33. Tyler says:

    Also today had to put our 17 year old dog down. Very tough day.

    1. Jack says:

      Sorry .. Tyler.. :-(

  34. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The latest GFS now is on board with the Euro. model in bringing the storm all the way back to Michigan. It would start as snow, then change to rain. At this point does not look like a lot of snow, as I assume much would be melting as it falls…but coupled with strong winds, would make for a nasty day.

    1. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

      Hey Jim, how can I access this info. What websites are good in showing different model runs?

  35. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    First one has the NAM and GFS model runs. I usually look at the 4 panel charts. The second one has one a bunch of maps, but the best is the precip. type map. It will show total rain/snow/ice/ and can show what type of precip will fall at certain times.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=MODEL+GUIDANCE

    http://coolwx.com/

    1. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

      Thanks

  36. Scott (west olive) says:

    Wow 77 degrees! Fixx its to hot!

  37. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I predict that GR sees no snow from this event and that we see no accumulating snow till mid to late November!

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