Hurricane Sandy

October 24th, 2012 at 11:55 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

  (click graphic to enlarge).  Wed. night run of the European model for Monday evening takes Sandy near Washington D.C. with a huge push of water up Delaware Bay.  There could be significant damage/flooding in Delaware, New Jersey, in Philadelphia, with +2 FEET of snow in the high mountains of W. Virginia.  There’s a chilly north wind in Michigan.  Here’s the NOGAPS model for Sunday evening.  Here’s the latest European model for Mon. AM and the latest European for Tues. AM – bringing a tropical storm up into Delaware.  Keep in mind there is full moon and that means higher tides and an even greater risk of coastline flooding and erosion.  The GFS model is trending toward the European and bringing a strong storm into the NE U.S.  Here’s the GFS night run for Weds. evening…doesn’t look real good for trick or treat.  This would be a cold rain or rain/snow mix and temperatures perhaps in the mid-upper 30s.  If that’s the case, this is going to be a tens of millions of dollars in damage storm (if not hundreds of millions), with wind damage, heavy rain, mountain snow and flooding.  For Michigan it means an extended period of cold north winds.  Hurricane Sandy will move north across Jamaica and eastern Cuba, then into the Bahamas.  The center of the storm will pass east of Florida, but could give gusty winds and heavy rain to SE Florida.  The storm will likely pass east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, perhaps giving that area a shot of wind and rain.  The big question is what happens then.   The NWS will be launching extra weather balloons and taking other measures to enhance base data and improve forecasts with the storm.  Here’s the latest track map, the latest forecast advisory (inc. the watches and warnings), the latest forecast discussion, the public advisory, wind probabilities, Jamaica radar (“temporarily down” as I write this), eastern Cuba radarCuba general radar, Guantanamo Cuba radar (not working as I write this), Miami radar, eastern North Carolina radar, zoomed-in Funktop satellite, Caribbean-centered Funktop satellite loop, visible satellite loop (infrared at night), many more satellite images, Jamaican weather blog, Bahamas weather blog, Jamaican weather stations, Bahamas weather stations, and a surface weather map of the Caribbean to SE U.S.   Also, here’s the latest on Tropical Storm Tony, well out in the Atlantic.

53 Responses to “Hurricane Sandy”

  1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The 12Z GFS shows a huge storm hitting the far NE U.S. and back tracks it far enough west that it would give Michigan plenty of wind and some rain/snow mix….but not much if any accumulation.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Indeed, the 12Z operational GFS is on board with a perfect storm type of scenario. It pulls Sandy’s circulation into the polar trough, strengthens it, and slams it into Maine as a 952-956 mb low. As the low travels westward for a short distance, Michigan would be on the western edge of influence, with NW winds bringing in cold air with some lake-enhanced snow or mixture showers.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F24%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        12Z Canadian model looks similar as well…has it somewhere around 946mb. Still looks like the biggest impact for West Michigan would be very strong winds.

        1. Mark (N.E. Gratiot Co.) says:

          I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow here with Lake Huron enhancement. Wind will be big but the fun will be what happens out east

  2. hunter 12 says:

    Hi Bill. I am flying to Philadelphia next Monday evening. Do you think this storm will cause travel or flight issues early next week? I would greatly appreciate your insight. Thanks!

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      I would sugest calling ahead, make alternative plans as well and be prepared for anything at this point

    2. Cort S. says:

      The confidence in some type of east coast storm is increasing little by little, but the specific effects and timing are still far too uncertain. Depending on the exact path over the ocean that the storm takes, Philly’s weather could either be bad or okay on Monday evening.

  3. hunter 12 says:

    Thanks guys. I’ll keep checking back for updates. I appreciate the thoughts.

  4. Mike M. says:

    Nice write-up in PJ Media by Brendan Loy…

    http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/24/sandy-now-a-hurricane-and-a-serious-u-s-threat/

    This would be a big I-told-you-so for Joe Bastardi. East coast was pounded a lot during similar climactic conditions in the 1950′s. He’s been pointing that out for over a year, I believe.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I’ll bet it’s been 4 or 5 years now that he’s been saying there should be a big north east hurricane during the upcoming 10 year period.

      1. Mike M. says:

        Now you see the advantage in comparing decades. Increases the odds of looking brilliant. :)

  5. Cort S. says:

    The US is going to start sending up weather balloons more frequently now, to try to predict Sandy better.

    ——

    NOUS42 KWNO 241816
    ADMNFD
    SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
    NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
    1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

    DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
    HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
    BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012… ALL REGIONAL
    DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
    SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
    REGION OR THE SDM…
    ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***
    WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY…
    CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY…
    EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY…
    SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY…
    ————————————–
    THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION
    EVOLVES…

    SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

  6. I have finally made my mark in weather! :) Seriously, I hope that our final outdoor marching band competition in Woodhaven, Michigan just south of Detroit is DRY! We are on the edge of whether we will qualify for State Finals at Ford Field or not and this will decided it for us!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Judging by the weather forecast – they should stay dry?? And good luck!!

    1. Mr. Negative says:

      Best of luck…Marching Band rules!

  7. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Some models are pointing out a high of 80 tomorrow wow! that will defiantly be an Indian summer!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Sure is and i LOVE IT!

    2. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

      I love Indian Summer as well! :-)

      1. Nathan says:

        Fixxxer, i didnt know you liked Indian Summer!

        1. Jack says:

          He(fixxxer), Don’t Love anything, BUT , 80 ish…. ;-)

  8. INDY says:

    Lets all hope perrfectt Sandy brings us a Blizzard of a snow storm on her backslide …DRINKING SPRITES AND TELLING IT RIGHT TONIGHT ..4 DAY BINGGG…HI BILL….INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      Cue : The Byrds… ANTIQUE SANDY !!!! ;-)

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    No SNOW STORM till December. Yes to the Tigers. GO TIGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Go Tigers….Go J.V…..Make Midgets of The Giants !!!! VICTORY #1…… Pipe Is FULL…. WOOOOOOO. HOOOOOOOO !!!!!

        1. Jack says:

          YES…..Cue: Small Faces….ITCHYCOO PARK……. ;-)

  10. ~Sherry~ Comstock Park says:

    Goooooooo Tigers!!!

  11. kevin. w says:

    Hope you guys love indian winter as well. :)

  12. bluewind says:

    Can’t wait till tomorrow night when the cold weather returns.

  13. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    18Z GFS takes Sandy off the Coast

    1. Cort S. says:

      Yeah… though it still does develop a pretty decent storm with cold weather impacts reaching as far west as Michigan.
      http://i.imgur.com/SOm4Y.gif
      The 18Z GFS Ensemble members are a complete mess. The operational GFS (white line) is on the right side of the guidance envelope. I wonder if 00Z GFS will have a clearer picture, more in line with 12Z, since it has the advantage of having weather balloon data.

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        so every other model run has weather balloons with it? so this maybe one of those throw away runs

      2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        so every other model run has weather balloons with it? so this maybe one of those throw away runs s

        1. Cort S. says:

          Correct, balloons are launched around the world at 00 and 12 Z. Starting tomorrow, the NWS is going to launch balloons at 00, 06, 12, and 18 Z, because Sandy is serious business.

  14. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Cort do all of the weather stations launch balloons everyday or are there selected sites?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Not every NWS office does balloon launches. A little more than half of them do, plus various other locations around the world. Detroit and Gaylord are the ones in Michigan. Here is a map:
      http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

  15. Cort S. says:

    The new 00 Z operational GFS is showing another flavor of potential results… a Fujiwara effect between the trough (which turns into a closed circulation of its own in the mid levels over the NE US) and Sandy. The more intense circulation, Sandy, and would eventually get hooked back into New England, to be absorbed within the larger non-tropical circulation, but become the larger circulation’s center. Kinda sorta like a Perfect Storm scenario, but unique in its own right.

    The resulting huge circulation would have far-reaching effects all the way to Michigan. In this particular solution, Michigan could see a bit of snow on Halloween, which would change to rain by trick-or-treat time, as warmer air gets wrapped around the northern side of this system and approaches Michigan from the north!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F25%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  16. Cort S. says:

    NHC knew this would happen at 11 o’clock. The pressure in Sandy had dropped significantly and its presentation on satellite looked like a solid category 2 hurricane, yet the winds measured by aircraft reconnaissance were that of a high category 1. Now the winds have caught up:

    …SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA…

    SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT…0430 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…19.6N 76.1W
    ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…110 MPH…175 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB…28.26 INCHES

    RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED…AND MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH…175 KM/H. THIS
    MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE…
    AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
    ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

  17. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    000
    FXUS63 KGRR 250746
    AFDGRR

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    345 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

    .LONG TERM…(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
    ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

    LITTLE QUESTION IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAN
    MOST OF THIS WEEK AS BEEN TO THIS POINT. THE OTHER BIG STORY THE
    INCREASE THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
    WILL RESULT AND NEEDED WARM WEATHER GEAR FOR HALLOWEEN TRICK OR
    TREATERS. INCREASINGLY THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
    BRINGS SANDY STORM BACK WESTWARD INTO MICHIGAN IN THE TUESDAY TO
    WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT WE WOULD BE ALREADY IN THE COLD
    AIR… LIKELY THIS WOULD MEAN SOME SNOW.

    THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE IS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO
    THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A HURRICANE MOVES
    NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST THAT THEN GETS CAPTURED BY THE NORTHERN
    STREAM SYSTEM. A BLOCKING UPEPR HIGH NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IS WHAT HELPS
    THE STORM TO TRACK AS IT DOES. THE BLOCKING WILL RESULT THIS SYSTEM
    STALLING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES FOR SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
    NEXT WEEK.

    THE GFS DEVOPES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
    THEN PHASES IT WITH EAST COAS SYSTEM DURING WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD
    CAUSE INSTABLITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH LAKE EFFECT AREAS SEEING
    THE LIONS SHARE OF THE EVENT. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
    HAND JUST RETROGRADE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BACK WEST TO MICHIGAN IN THE
    TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THAT WOULD CUASE PRECIPITATATION TO
    MOVE IT FROM THE EAST AND REMAIN AROUND THROUGH WENDESDAY. THE ECMWF
    WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SO EITHER WAY THE AREAS WEST OF
    US-131 WOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. I RAMPED UP THE POPS IN
    THAT TIME FAME GIVEN THE AGREMENT ON THIS BETWEEN THE 25/00Z GFS…
    ECMWF THE ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM.

    GIVEN MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW GIVING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ENOUGH
    MOISTURE WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW… THIS COULD RESULT
    IN OUR FIRST WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OF THE SEASON. SINCE HOLLOWEEN
    MAY BE THAT DAY… THAT MAY INCREASE THE ODDS OF A IMPACT BASED
    HEADLINE TOO.

    &&

  18. Brett (Belmont) says:

    Why do I have the uncontrolable urge to sing the “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerld” right about now…

    ‘Superior’, they said, ‘never gives up her dead
    When the gales of November come early!’

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Yeah – the whole scenario is giving me the willies….

  19. Mike M. says:

    This will give us something to tell our grandchildren about…

    http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/25/hurricane-sandy-could-seriously-disrupt-the-election/

    Hundreds of thousands of Blue State voters lose power and suffer flooding less than a week before the election. Heh. Sorry, but I’m going to enjoy that.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      That was thought-provoking – I hadn’t really considered how much work is involved in the week before an election…..

      1. Mike M. says:

        The respective governors of these states need to get out in front of this before it gets out of hand. They have to be seen taking action in a non-partisan way to insure the integrity of the electoral process. I guarantee you someone will use this storm as an excuse to cast doubt on the results of the elections.

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        No excuses will be necessary. Obama’s gonna run away with this one. Have a long look, Mike, you idiot.

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups_race_changes.html

        Seriously, turn FOX off. You have no idea what’s really going on in the world. LOL ….Kind of like Romney.

  20. matinmi says:

    My sister and her daughters driving out here from Rhode Islandon Sunday and staying overnight in Cleveland. Should they leave on Sat. instead?

  21. Wolf57 says:

    Hi everybody.Is ‘Sandy’ going to be a major event?I have family in the area.In Maine.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Maine will get rainy and windy, but they’ll miss the worst of Sandy.

  22. Wolf57 says:

    I hate wind turbines.They are butt ugly

  23. Samuel J Simonson says:

    Faith was with our founding Fathers of the United States of America. What do we believe as a nation? What could we gain if we turn our attention toward faith?

    Our United States Constitution was created for governing a moral and religious people. Any other form of Government, then our Constitution is useless.

    May the grace of God and mercy be upon the United States of America.

    Follow me and let’s one-by-one return blessings upon the United Sates of America. Please pray with me.

    Jesus My Lord, Saint Medard served as a bishop during very difficult times, and his long life of spiritual leadership created a tremendous impression on the people. Because of his patronage against bad weather, I ask him to intercede for the United States of America during the storms of every persons life as well as the storms in nature. Protect all 308+ million of your children, as one body, and our home, the United States of America. And Father, I beg of you to assist me and rebuke Hurricane Sandy away from the East coast of the United States today. Please help any victims of hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and other natural disasters. Our Lord calmed the storm on the Sea of Galilee; deliver us from the storms that are raging around us now.

    Saint Medard, pray for us. Amen.

    Thank you and may God Bless you and may the Holy Spirit remain with you forever.

    Samuel Jacob Simonson

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      Amen.

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