Last “Summer” Day

October 25th, 2012 at 5:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   1:20 PM – Gust to 47 mph at the Muskegon Airport, 37 mph at the Regional Airport in Holland and 35 mph at Battle Creek.  There’s a Severe T-Storm Watch for parts of the U.P.  Rain moves into the lakeshore around 9 PM and it should clear I-69 by sunrise.  Here’s the Monday night Canadian model…cold enough for a mix developing in Michigan either Tues. or Tues. night into Weds./Thurs. and a very strong storm for areas east of a line from Cleveland to Charleston W.VA. to New Bern NC.  If this storm knocks out a lot of power, will they have the power back on by the Election??  Could the President just delay the election??  Fall colors picture from Jack Martin.  The U.S. map has high temperatures from Wednesday.  Click on the pictures to enlarge.  This is the last warm day, starting with a low temperature higher than the average high temperature!  If we make 77, it’ll be a record high temperature for Oct. 25th (it’s 2 months to Christmas!).  It’ll get breezy with south winds increasing to around 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.  A cold front arrives tonight.  We’ll see scattered showers and maybe a thundershower with the front.  They shouldn’t arrive until after sunset.  The “See Text” area from the Storm Prediction Center comes to southern Lake Michigan.  Then it’s chilly until further notice.  We should become partly sunny on Friday and stay partly sunny over the weekend, with highs in the upper 40s to low 5os.  The wind will be mainly north, not coming off Lake Michigan for most of us.  Hurricane Sandy (see thread below) will be a very major storm, hitting the populated East Coast.  I could see tens to even hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, with strong wind, heavy rain, flooding and heavy snow from the mountains of West Virginia up into New York.  Places like Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania could see significant damage and flooding from this storm.  If you know someone in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, tell them don’t mess with Sandy.  This will be a major storm.  A piece of this storm will rotate around and back into Michigan from the northeast.  This will likely be a mix of a cold rain and snow with the possibility of some accumulating snow.  This will start sometime Tuesday and last into Wednesday.  It looks like a cold, damp trick-or-treat Wednesday night with temperatures perhaps all the way down in the mid-upper 30s with a cold north wind.  Look at the high temperature map and see the cold air back across N. Dakota, Montana and up into Canada (3 days in a  row with high temperatures in the mid 20s in Calgary, Alberta).

103 Responses to “Last “Summer” Day”

  1. Todd A (from Holland, in GR) says:

    This late season warm spell has been great. Left the windows and slider door open all night, it felt like August instead of late October.

    Some of the model runs for this weekend are downright scary.

    1. Kris says:

      What do you mean, “scary”? Sorry – I don’t watch the runs. I just rely on you guys to keep me informed and excited about the weather.

      1. Todd A (from Holland, in GR) says:

        Hurricane Sandy’s projected path brings it right over the eatern seaboard.

        http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/which-way-will-sandy-go-31851

        1. Todd A (from Holland, in GR) says:

          *eastern

  2. michael g (SE GR) says:

    If the European is right, it would be a mutli-billion dollar storm.

  3. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Remember that pledge to not complain about winter if it snows on Halloween fizzz?

    From the GR NWS this morning, dig it….

    GIVEN MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW GIVING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ENOUGH
    MOISTURE WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW… THIS COULD RESULT
    IN OUR FIRST WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OF THE SEASON. SINCE HOLLOWEEN
    MAY BE THAT DAY… THAT MAY INCREASE THE ODDS OF A IMPACT BASED
    HEADLINE TOO.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Yup i remember but im betting we see not even a flake here.

  4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    We might have our first winter wx advisory next week YAY :)

  5. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The 00Z model run of the GFS would give us accumulating snow. The 06Z model that just came in would give us mostly rain, with very little mixed snow at the start.

    1. Kris says:

      How much accumulating snow are we talking about here? I don’t have a plow service yet.

      1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        I am guessing that anything that accumulates would end up melting away pretty soon. It’s a little early for snow to stick and then stay.

  6. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While “early” snowstorms are rare they are not unheard of. But keep in mind many of the years where there was an “early” snowstorm the winters of many of those years were not that unusual and many were warmer then average. But one year with a “early” snowstorm comes to mind and that was the winter of 1966/67 that year (at least in the Bay City area) we had a major snowstorm on November 3rd and yet another one late in November and the a very big one in January (that one was as big or bigger then the 1978 storm)
    Clear and a very warm 64° here so off to a very warm start today.
    SlimJim

  7. Barry in Zeeland says:

    This weather is already reminding me of last year. Cool week, followed by warm week, followed by cool week, followed by warm week….and on and on. A repeat of last year would be perfect. No one can complain then cuz we get snow one week for all the no-snow haters, then it all melts the next week for all the no-snow lovers. Everyone ends up getting what they want!

    1. Eric (SE Mason County) says:

      I can complain. I didn’t get enough snow last year.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Great winter last year! ;)

    2. Joseph says:

      Actually, you might be onto something — some of the forecasts for this winter have indicated that there may be wild swings…. very cold for a couple of weeks, followed by moderation to warmer than average for a couple of weeks, rinse, later, repeat. It has been this way so far this fall, and it could very likely continue into the Winter.

  8. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Cool cloud photo here:

    http://imgur.com/kFVvg

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      THAT would make me a bit nervous!!

    2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      That is definitely “scary-looking clouds.”

  9. Scott (west olive) says:

    5:45 am? Should have done the morning show. Going to be cool watching the storm this weekend.

  10. Zachary Lassiter says:

    Some warnings popping for the UP

    http://warningweather.com/loc/MI/

    and a TSTORM watch just issued for them as well

  11. sara says:

    Winter Forecast soon??

  12. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    This model looks good it looks like we could potentially see a few inches of snow next Tuesday and Wednesday lets all hope :)

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_prcp&loop=loopall&hours=hr192

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Why would we hope for that? What can you possibly do with 2 inches of wet melting snow?

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        It would be our first snowfall just saying ;) you non snow lovers can comment on other stuff but I am a SNOW LOVER!

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Make those Snow Angels quick – I don’t think it’s going to stick around for very long :-(

        2. fixxxer says:

          We dont need snow yet jordan. I think you might be disapointed next week. Probably just a cold rain here.

  13. Mr. Negative says:

    End of the line, and completely routine for us. Nothing but a future of cold, dark, windy, frozen, nothingness…until mid June if we’re lucky.

  14. Hugh says:

    What a beautiful morning! We should be grateful and quit snarling Enjoy the day:)

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      CARPE DIEM!

  15. SS (Pwell Area) says:

    Out in the yard a little bit ago all the leaves started blowing from the East to the West… about 3 mins later they all came back from the West to the East…. Like a tennis match!!! :)

  16. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Last hot day. Frankenstorm is coming!

    1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      “Frankenstorm”? Love it! :)

  17. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Canadian and GFS crushing NY with this storm. As of now, at least the GFS has backed off on the snow for us. Gives us a little mix over to rain. Not much impact for us other than some wind and rain…..oh, and our insurance costs skyrocketing as the NY harbor is rebuilt. Politicians could win or lose elections thanks to Sandy.

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Sadly enough, I was thinking the exact same thing! Typically, natural disasters and other similar things tend to boost a president’s approval ratings, provided they handle it relatively well of course. That could give Obama a boost perhaps. We’ll see how it plays out.

  18. bluewind says:

    Feelin’ like WINTER in under 10 hours, breezy and rainy and cold! Here we GO!

    Bye Bye summer and heat!

  19. Yup (Grandville) says:

    Road trip to New York?

  20. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The 12Z European model drives the hurricane right into Delaware…the low then heads to Cleveland. Models still not on the same page, but most of them agree on a historical storm.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      This is euro’s wheelhouse….bank it!;)

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I don’t like that word “historical”. It seems to become “historical” you need to kill people and destroy their homes and businesses……

      1. fixxxer says:

        The “historical” talk right now is hype.

        1. Hugh says:

          I like gunlakedeb. She is in the real world. Time for fizz to go hibernate — see you in april.

        2. fixxxer says:

          Lol another noob i see. Btw i NEVER hibernate snow boy!

  21. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Darn it just lost power! I will be blogging through my phone then tonight lol!

    1. Jack says:

      That’s What Ya Get For HOPING for SNOW..Jordan, just saying.. ;-)

  22. Mark (Okemos) says:

    Imagine if Election Day was this coming Tuesday with Sandy creating all that havoc.

    1. Jack says:

      Speaking of the Election….I AM FED- UP with….ROBO- CALLS….. :-(

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Amen to that, Jack!

        1. Haanstar says:

          double amen, They always call at dinner time too

      2. fixxxer says:

        Do not call list?

        1. Hugh says:

          Stupid, you know that does not apply (unless you have less than a high school education). Surely you know that Campaign crud is exempt.

        2. fixxxer says:

          Did i strike a nerve hugh? Which party do you work for? The only jackass here is your response.

        3. Jack says:

          Wish , I Could do That,To Fizzzers Posts… Sooooo many of Them.. It would take all dayyyyyy..!, ;-)

        4. Haanstar says:

          I am on the do not call but it must not apply to politicians

      3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        For flippin’ real…

  23. Skot says:

    Bill, could be get more sun and warmer temps please? OOoops….wrong person.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Nope just a tad too windy for my tastes.

  24. Eric (SE Mason County) says:

    I am surprised we are not under a wind advisory. Seems like the wind is enough for. It is a very steady wind up here and I am surprised we have not lost power yet.

  25. Cort S. says:

    Well I suppose it was inevitable. We found a name for this storm. From HPC:

    THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
    ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
    TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
    SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
    INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
    LINES OF “FRANKENSTORM”, AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY’S GOTHIC
    CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

    1. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

      That’s awesome good to see noaa having some fun

    2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      LOVE IT.

  26. Allendale says:

    http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrenttemperatures_large.html

    One heck of a temperature contrast right there with that cold front!

  27. fixxxer says:

    http://www.sunherald.com/2012/10/25/4265506/huge-perfect-storm-sandy-could.html

    A little insight on what may happen with these storms. Not much of any mention of the midwest being affected, just the eastcoast. Either way i hope it doesnt pan out.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Here’s what Michigan could see, depending on how far westward this storm ends up hooking when it hits the east coast…

      With all the cold air that will pour in from the northwest, through Michigan, en route to the central Appalachians and the south side of the cyclone, the only thing that Michigan needs is enough lift in the atmosphere to create clouds and precipitation. If Sandy is too far east, Michigan will be more under the influence of high pressure, preventing precipitation from forming. But if the cyclone grows very large and hooks westward, Michigan will be on the western edge of influence, creating the potential for both synoptic and lake-effect precipitation. Expected temperatures above the ground suggest it will be cold enough for Michigan to see snow, at least temporarily before warm air wraps around the north side of the cyclone and changes Michigan’s precipitation to rain.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Im not overly concerned for us here. The models have this storm doing many different things. Its a wait & see deal. Looks to mostly affect the eastcoast though.

        1. Cort S. says:

          Indeed. You’re not going to see a “storm” by any stretch of the imagination in Michigan.

          What is certain is that you will have cold air pouring through the area, so all you need is for the western edge of the cyclone to reach out far enough to influence Michigan. If it does, you’ll see a little precipitation, perhaps even some snowflakes.

          The models slowly are coming into better and better agreement on some type of left hook and east coast landfall. I’ll post a picture below to illustrate.

  28. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Radar SW of us is looking decent but as usual we’ll just see rain with no thunder or lightning which would be nice but doubtful. Dh made it home from Afghanistan today safely for his R&R!! YAY!!! Beautiful day to fly although windy.

    1. fixxxer says:

      When is he done there?

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Not soon enough, he’s a Civilian contractor so when the economy starts booming again and his current company can get more projects outside of the one he’s at on the bases or he can find a different job with a different company back here in the states which we all know where the jobless track is and continues to climb rather then decrease. :-(

  29. Kimoeagle says:

    Thanks for the advance warning, Bill. I informed our extended families who live along the Eastern Seaboard & upstate NY of the prediction(s). With leaves still on the trees, the results of rain/snow and winds may create havoc.
    Side note: IWX NWS has included the word snow in their 7-day forecast for the first time, i.e., “Tuesday night, a 30% chance for rain or snow showers…” A glance at our thermometer says that I’d best enjoy the 76F temperatures this afternoon!!!

  30. Cort S. says:

    Here are the operational GFS (white line) and its ensemble members (pink lines; slightly scaled-down versions of the GFS which tweak the starting conditions of the atmosphere slightly with each member, to see how the results change).

    http://i.imgur.com/KtOzz.gif

    They are all showing a left hook into the east coast now. In previous days, some of them hooked to the east coast, and some of them stayed completely out at sea. This means our confidence in an east coast landfall is increased greatly compared to a few days ago. But exactly where the landfall will be is still very uncertain.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      No doubt that the Euro was the guru on this one.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Indeed it was. Though there is some question as whether it may be a little over-zealous in phasing Sandy into the trough so quickly. It still may be right, but that’s one of the big uncertainties now. NWS Boston’s afternoon discussion talks about this very eloquently:

        — — — —

        overall…there is growing confidence on sandy left-hooking in and around new jersey as the ecmwf has remained consistent and the latest 25/12z operational gfs has come aboard. but we are not out of the woods yet…the storm itself remains 4-5 days out…in evaluating all the ensemble and deterministic model guidance there is still a level of uncertainty.

        focusing on literary works and climatological analysis…there is a dependency on whether sandy remains tropical or evolves into a post-tropical system. this is another major uncertainty. mentioned in yesterdays discussion…a tropical system (especially one that moves fast) will have difficulty in crossing h5 heights and thicknesses resulting in a lesser chance of phasing with baroclinic systems thereby remaining distinct and taking more of a n/w track (daisy 1962 and juan 2003)…whereas a post-tropical system will be the complete opposite (especially if it slows) having a greater chance of tracking left (esther 1961…mid-november unnamed sub-tropical system in 1981). in such cases the dominant wave within a negatively tilted trough into the ern conus usurped the weaker system causing the left-hook of the post-tropical system.

        in addition…model solns have had difficulty in prematurely phasing systems while overzealously deepening the cyclone. run-to-run with the gefs initially exhibited a very strong anomaly with sandy…but has lately come down on the strength of that anomaly (sandy though still remains an anomalous and historic system).

        it is from the climatological perspective discussions above that there is hesitation that sandy will significantly deepen down to a low pressure around 950 hpa before making landfall. in addition there remains challenges with whether sandy will remain tropical or post-tropical…impacting whether it phases with the anticipated trough or remains an entity unto itself. therefore there are consequentially questions as to the impacts and threats associated with sandy.

        1. Kimoeagle says:

          In other words, they’re not sure yet which way that sucker’s gonna go!! Right? Right. ;-)

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          Cort – how is all of this going to affect YOU??? You will be closer to the “action” than we will….. I hope you live on high ground??

        3. Cort S. says:

          I’m expecting 4+ days in a row of light to moderate rain, and some substantially gusty winds for maybe a day, and breezy for the remainder. The precipitation forecast for NH doesn’t look all that extreme right now, compared to NJ/PA/DE/MD: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

          The Pemigewasset River at Plymouth NH had a 15-year flood with Irene. I survived that just fine. I don’t think this storm will be worse here in terms of flooding. The biggest impact concerns seem to be shifting south of NH at this point.

        4. GunLakeDeb says:

          Thanks, Cort – that’s good to know. You’re always watching over US – I think some folks forget that you’re not in Michigan…LOL!!

  31. INDY says:

    I hope Sandy brings a snow storm on Halloweeeaanee INDYY..

    1. Scott (City of Rockford) says:

      Just a few years back (sorry I can’t remember the year), during Halloween week we had a big snow fall here. It brought down trees and power lines.

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        I am kind thinking of 1997 when that happened. At least in my recollection. I remember the next day driving around and it looked like a war zone with so many branches broken. I don’t believe it happened on Halloween but pretty close.

        1. Cort S. says:

          I remember it was 1997 or thereabouts too. It could have been October 26, 1997. I am finding some hits to my google searches with that date.

    2. Jack says:

      The only SANDY I Want is A……… SANDY BEACH….. Ahhhhhhhh.. ;-)

    3. fixxxer says:

      Your soo smart indy.

  32. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    As I have been saying for days now – we will not be seeing any accumulating snow out of this system. We have a zero percent chance!

    1. Jack says:

      LIKE. :-) + Fizzzler … @000. ;-)

  33. Kimoeagle says:

    Off subject but interesting: (Headline and excerpt from Christian Science Monitor):
    Antarctic Ozone Hole 2nd Smallest in 20 Years
    Excerpt” “..”It happened to be a bit warmer this year high in the atmosphere above Antarctica, and that meant we didn’t see quite as much ozone depletion as we saw last year, when it was colder,” said Jim Butler with NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.” Ed: this is interesting, because, I believe, surface temperatures in Antartica were the coldest they’ve been in years!Go figure.

    1. Cort S. says:

      The stratosphere is a strange, magical place. The polar vortex that develops in the stratosphere during the local winters is responsible for keeping the stratospheric ozone trapped in the vortex for months, where it gets destroyed by CFCs, and sunlight does not return for 6 months to break down the vortex and begin the oxygen-ozone-sunlight reaction cycle. The temperatures at the ground are not necessarily related to the temperatures in the stratosphere.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      That’s often the case…stratospheric warming and cold temperatures at the surface.

  34. Jim Shultz says:

    Well, I have been watching and reading about this storm since it hit the airwaves. I have been on the road for a month and am due to be home on Halloween. I just hope my travels don’t include any portion of the eastern part of the country between now and then.

    I rode out Irene in my truck, that was not fun then driving through Jersey two days after landfall and having to take multiple detours just to go 10 miles due to parts of the turnpike and other secondary roads being flooded.

    I am fascinated with the weather until I have to drive my semi through the major storms, then it is not fascinating at all.

    1. Jack says:

      Prayers Your Way.!!!! Keep on Truckin…. GOD BLESS… Go Tigers … :-)

  35. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Just received a call from Consumers and they said my power won’t be back on until 8 tomorrow morning so what am I supposed to do >:( this sure has been a windy day!

    1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Candles?

    2. Kimoeagle says:

      Bonfire in the Fire Pit? No, masybe that’s not too good an idea…winds and all that.
      :-/

  36. Kelly says:

    I know this seems crazy, but do you guys think there is any chance of Tornadoes tonight? I am worried with how warm it has been today and how cool it is getting that with a Thunderstorm there could be something more severe.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I won’t go as far out on a limb as RJ and declare a “0% chance”, but it is EXTREMELY unlikely.

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Nope not a chance not this time of season but it is still good to be concerned because you need to prepare in case one ever happens ;)

      1. Cort S. says:

        Tornadoes do happen in the autumn. In fact, across the U.S., there is a secondary, smaller peak in tornado frequency in the fall (spring is the primary peak). Tonight, tornadoes are not favored. Extremely unlikely, as michael said.

  37. INDY says:

    Fox weatherzone says rain and snow on Hallowaanee next Bill will call for it!!! INDYY..

  38. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Lightning and thunder another fall storm :)

  39. Cort S. says:

    RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
    400 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

    …RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI…

    A RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 WAS RECORDED IN GRAND
    RAPIDS. [...] THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 76 WAS SET IN 1989.

  40. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    I really hope folks in the NE don’t let there guard down when Sandy transitions into a extra-tropical feature

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