Cool Will Rule

October 26th, 2012 at 12:45 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  This is the overnight run of the European model for Monday evening.  Click the image or click here to enlarge.  Sandy moves right on top of New York City, cold north wind in Michigan.  Check out this animation of Sandy, making the loop on the East Coast.  This is the GFS – huge area with damaging winds, heavy rain.  Heavy snow in mountain areas of  W VA and PA – snow to the NE Carolina.  This image was tweeted out by Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell.   The center of Sandy is over Chesapeake Bay.  The counter-clockwise circulation is quite large and brings a north wind to Lower Michigan.  Initially, the air is dry and the wind moves from NW today (Fri.) to due North…so the wind will not be coming off Lake Michigan…so no lake-effect and a dry weekend.  Eventually, as Sandy comes northwest, we’ll pick up clouds and some rain.  It’s not impossible that there could be a mix, but with temperatures near to above freezing and a warm ground, we shouldn’t get accumulations.   The European (which appears to have been the best model on Sandy so far), gives G.R. another 0.70″ of rain from Tues. night to Thurs. night.  The GFS has only 0.05″.  The GFS would have a chance of light rain, a chilly NNW wind and about 40 degrees for trick-or-treat.  We have had at least a trace of rain on 19 of the last 24 days and measurable rain on 15 of those 24 days.  We are up to 6″ of rain for the month in G.R. and over 7″ in Holland and Saugatuck.  Interesting note – yesterday the average wind was 16.1 mph and that made it the windiest day since mid-April.  We haven’t had a lot of really windy days of late.  We had record highs of 76 in MKG and 78 in G.R. on Thurs.  It made 80 at the Regional Airport in Holland.  There were 5 wind damage and 2 severe hail reports in northern Wisconsin Thursday.   Northern Lower Michigan and Eastern Upper Michigan should get some snow from Sandy.        October rainfall so far:  Holland 7.35″, Muskegon 6.67″, Grand Rapids 6.07″, Kalamazoo 4.76″, Battle Creek 4.68″.   The average high/low for Grand Rapids is 56/39 today.  We continue to lose daylight at the rate of nearly 3 minutes per day.  Partly to mostly sunny this afternoon.

60 Responses to “Cool Will Rule”

  1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Bill…I’ll have to check the exact measurement, but I know as of last night we were over 8.1 inches for October.

  2. fixxxer says:

    80 yesterday and 45 today… pure crap michigan, right?

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Fixxx…Cue: The Four Seasons…Walk Like a MAN…… ;-)

      1. Kimoeagle says:

        Talk like a mannnnn…………

    2. Mr. Negative says:

      yep…nothing but crap til mid June -

      1. fixxxer says:

        Try july.

        1. Cort S. says:

          Try 2014.

    3. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      lol…. gotta love michigan

    4. CVS says:

      Please get a job.

  3. snowsearch says:

    Bill,
    We have a cottage on Gun Lake that isn’t insulated. I would like to hold off on winterizing it for a couple of weeks until I can get the leaves under control. Think I’ll be okay?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I think you should be fine for a while – until the nighttime temps start hitting the mid-20′s?

  4. Jack says:

    It’s…FRIDAY…..ENJOY!!!!!!!!

  5. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

    Friday with awesome cool temps!!! Going to be a great weekend.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Great temperatures today! Yesterday was a little too warm! Get out and enjoy the fantastic weather this weekend. I plan to get some work done outside and get some golf in!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Bring on WINTER and COLD and SNOW!!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Dude your bipolar.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Just the facts fixxxer!

        1. fixxxer says:

          Go golfing.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Maybe, no one really knows.

  8. fixxxer says:

    There goes bill and his “cool rules” annual statement. ;)

    1. Jack says:

      And yours would be….??

      1. fixxxer says:

        Cool sucks?

  9. Cort S. says:

    HPC’s manual forecast is now going for a sub-960 mb storm at landfall… I think… count the isobars:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg

  10. Deb says:

    How will this Sandy compare with Katrina? Could this storm end up being the east coast Katrina?

    1. Cort S. says:

      More comparable to Irene, at least for some locations (NYC’s storm surge threat, for example). The heaviest rains appear they will fall on the SW side of the cyclone, and HPC is forecasting perhaps a foot of rain for Delaware. Vermont was hit with catastrophic flash flooding with Irene but it might be spared the worst of it this time around. The wind may create problems in a number of places that Irene didn’t, especially in the form of uprooted trees in rain-loosened soil. But we all know that these impact predictions are hazy and bound to change a little with each new model cycle.

  11. INDY says:

    Get back on the meds please!! INDYY..

      1. Kimoeagle says:

        He’s talking to himself again……

  12. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Wow… the more that hurricane churns.. the more it seems like it will be an unbelievably HUGE impact on the east coast. I hope everyone is prepping for that MONSTER hurricane on the East Coast.

    1. fixxxer says:

      All depends mike but i do feel for the eastern part of the country.

    2. Cort S. says:

      We can say with at least 95% confidence now that this will take a left hook and make landfall on the east coast of the U.S. as a strange nor’easter / remnant tropical cyclone combination. The main question is now becoming, exactly where and when will it make that left hook, and where will the landfall point be? Right now anywhere from Delaware to Cape Cod looks likely, with New Jersey being the favored landfall location at this point.

  13. fixxxer says:

    Man is it cold out tonight. Bone cold.

    1. CVS says:

      Bone cold? Its 43 and its Michigan……..its not bone cold.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      FANTASTIC weather! If you think that this bone cold you are in for long winter. Bring on the COLD and SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Kimoeagle says:

    IMHO, it SEEMS that the hurricane (Sandy) itself is not a potent storm (although a Cat.1 is nothing to sneeze at!!) The more I read, and (try to) understand, is that it is the combination/interplay of the hurricane and the oncoming fronts being steered by the Northern jet stream, causing it to change from a tropical to an extratropical system, with Sandy changing from a warm core storm to a cold core storm — broadening the wind field by hundreds of miles ——– and therein lies the potential for horrific damage: rain & wind.
    There don’t seem to be many doubters out there right now, with odds favourable to hit the Big Apple. THAT will be where the $$ damage mounts.
    …….have I got that fairly right, Bill? Cort? Any comments?

    1. Cort S. says:

      3 things are coming together in a rare sequence of events to form this storm:

      1. A deep polar trough digging through the middle of the country right now (responsible for Michigan’s cool-down last night). Some models suggested that it would have gone negatively tilted and spun up a rainy and breezy east coast cyclone on its own even without Sandy in the picture.

      2. Hurricane Sandy lifting northward ahead of the trough to its west.

      3. An atmospheric blocking pattern in the northern Atlantic. This includes a very strong high pressure system which will form north of Newfoundland on Sunday, preventing Sandy from continuing north-northeastward. Sandy would have been happy to continue on its way northeastward and would have resisted merging into the polar trough system to its west. But the atmospheric block in Sandy’s path is going to give it a kick to the left, hooking it westward toward the polar trough, where they will be forced to combine into one gigantic cyclonic whirlpool in the atmosphere.

      Sandy will be undergoing extratropical transition at during the weekend. Meaning, it’s going to switch energy sources from the heat release of condensation in warm-ocean-fueled thunderstorms (the engine for hurricanes), toward baroclinicity (cold + warm air mass colliding) and jet stream dynamics (these power the cyclones we get in the middle-latitudes including Michigan). But the models are suggesting that Sandy’s vortex will retain a warm core, or some type of warm seclusion, virtually all the way up till landfall, while outside of the core, it will behave like your ordinary cold-core frontal system.

      Such a strangely synthesized system, somewhat reminiscent of the Perfect Storm of 1991, which takes an unprecedented left hook into the east coast, while having all the baroclinic and jet stream dynamic ingredients in place for re-strengthening into a very large monster it approaches the coast, and its proximity to Halloween, is what just simply begs to be called “Frankenstorm.”

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Great explanation Cort.
        Mother nature is a mad scientist.

      2. Kimoeagle says:

        Thanks, Cort. You added a few critical parts to the puzzle, and it’s become MUCH clearer. Am sorta glad that we’re not in the path of that “mixmaster”. Lots of damage, I’m afraid, to people and places.

        1. Cort S. says:

          For what it’s worth, the new 00Z GFS wants to drift this storm much farther westward after it hooks, which would give Michigan and northern Indiana some snow changing to rain. In fact, there would be a few days of some lake enhanced precipitation with this particular solution. And it would also be very breezy. Just another possibility on the table now.

          Click here for 00Z GFS animation

          The big question for Michigan is, how far west is this system going to drift before slowly diminishing and lifting northeast out of the picture forever? If it doesn’t drift very far west into the interior U.S., Michigan will be under high pressure and relatively quiet, but cold, weather. But if this particular model run were to verify, it would be a much more raw Halloween week for Michigan.

        2. Katie in Kentwood says:

          Look at that low coming into the west coast at the end of the GFS animation!! Is that going to bring us snow or rain?

        3. Cort S. says:

          That west coast low looks like it will weaken into a very weak system and move over the Midwest next weekend. It would be rain if it did anything at all.

      3. GunLakeDeb says:

        Cort – you explain things so well, you oughta be a teacher ;-) (To think we get all this and don’t even have to pay tuition!!)

  15. William says:

    Bill
    —I was looking for more of a plain English “Stephen-speak” Frankenstorm update…Maybe tomorrow.

    1. Me :-) says:

      In plain English: it is going to be crappy, but mot crappy enough for snow :-) Which is fine with me.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I prefer “craptastic” to describe what we’re about to have….

  16. fixxxerswrist says:

    frankly im not all that concerned about sandy, its already bone cold here and it looks like no snow from that system. but i did have to turn my heat on again and the kids are driving us mad, was cocked ready to smack one against the wall but master said not this time so i wait.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Haha, there’s a typo in your paragraph btw

    2. Kimoeagle says:

      Bone cold? BONE COLD? If you think this is bone cold, you’d better head for sunny climes as fast as you can!!!! (bone cold…mumble,mumble jeeesh.);-)

    3. Jack says:

      Is the masters Name…bait er…Or is that How ya Hurt your Wrist ?…. Lol.. ;-) )

    4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The weather is fantastic. Stop your whining and complaining! The tempos are great right now. PERFECT for outdoor activities. I will be heading out to the golf course today!

  17. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Another beautiful Halloween is coming our way!

  18. Mike Geukes says:

    I love these temperatures, I wish it was much colder, bring on the snow.
    I even sleep with my window open at night, so it is colder in my bedroom.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      cue: “COLD AS ICE” ~ Foreigner

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK ON – Bring on WINTER, COLD AND SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      LOL!! I always said I’d be happy to see icicles hanging from the bedroom light; but Hubby would die of hypothermia, I’m afraid…..

  19. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

    I called the devastating NE landfall about 3 or 4 days ago. I looked at all the signs that the atmosphere was giving me to forecast the NE landfall (analyzed both the GFS and NAM).

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      ohhhhhhh—kay.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Good job!! Now see if you can convince the people who live there to take the threat seriously?? I have a feeling this isn’t going to go well…

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