Windy Sandy – update

October 27th, 2012 at 2:29 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

  Sunday 8:45 PM -   Buoys offshore of Hatteras are showing gusts to 60-65 mph with 25-35 foot waves.  Piney Island has a steady wind of 38 mph with gusts to 52 mph.  Check out the wave forecast!  It’s got waves over 20 feet at the shore in New York and New Jersey and up to 45-50 feet in a small area offshore!!  24-hour rainfall totals in far eastern N.C. have been around 5-6″.    Here’s the maximum 900 mb winds  (from WeatherBell).  This would be at a lower level close to the center of the storm where pressures are lower (maybe 2,000 feet) and higher over Michigan where the pressure won’t be as low, but that’s 60-64 knots (69-74 mph) less than a mile off the ground.    Landfall  Monday evening/night in southern New Jersey (this would bring very strong east wind and storm surge west down Long Island Sound).  This is the GFS model map for 2 PM Tuesday. Click the image to enlarge.  The center of the storm (Sandy) is now forecast to come farther west.  That puts West Michigan into stronger wind and gives us a greater chance of showers/period of rain and still open is the possibility for a period of mixed precipitation.  The NAM (Caribou) model which goes out to 72 hours gives G.R. a steady (sustained) wind of 23 knots at 10 AM Tuesday morning.  That’s 26 mph – and we’d probably be getting gusts 35… and that’s with a temperature of 39.  With cold air coming across the relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan, winds would be stronger at the lake.  The NAM (caribou) gives S. Haven a steady wind of 33 knots (38 mph) Tuesday morning!  That’s not the gusts, that’s a steady wind!  And that’s for the airport, not the beach!  That kind of wind would create huge waves on Lake Michigan (open water probably 15-20 feet!  The regular NAM mos data shows the wind at 20 knots in G.R. (23 mph) by Monday afternoon.   The GFS model for Halloween isn’t quite as windy…but it’s still plenty breezy with light showers and chilly temperatures.  The European model gives G.R. 0.35″ of cold, intermittent rain from late Tuesday through Weds. night, with a chance of  a little wet snow mixing in.      Also:  Quite a bit of snow across Canada and Russia already…another sign that this winter won’t be as wimpy as last winter.

92 Responses to “Windy Sandy – update”

    1. John (Holland) says:

      If this was hitting a week later, maybe. But as it stands local officials will have a week to get their act together before the election.

      If lawyers or Congress start monkeying with electoral votes, declaring them tainted or whatever, the election will be widely panned as illegitimate (regardless of who wins) and probably throw the country into unrest or even a constitutional crisis. It would be 2000 times 10.

      Hopefully the election will be decisive enough that the lawyers won’t even bother.

  1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    000
    FXUS63 KGRR 270741
    AFDGRR

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    345 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    .SYNOPSIS…
    ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
    MONDAY. VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
    CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE
    MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
    SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM…(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
    ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH COOL DRY WX
    ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
    WILL ONLY REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
    THROUGH THE PERIOD.

    IT IS NOTED THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
    OVER OUR AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NNW AND THE
    INTENSE LOW MOST LIKELY NEAR NEW YORK CITY BY MONDAY EVENING. AS A
    RESULT WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
    EARLY AS MONDAY AFTN WHEN NORTH WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS.

    .LONG TERM…(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
    ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ON THE INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
    THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HURRICANE SANDY. SANDY WILL CONTINUE ON A
    NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. MAIN PLAYER IN THE
    INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH AND SANDY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT RACES
    FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING…ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
    OF THE UPPER TROUGH…TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE
    SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH SANDY…THE HURRICANE WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
    TOWARD THE COAST. EXACTLY HOW THIS INTERACTION PLAYS OUT WILL HAVE
    AFFECTS ON LOWER MICHIGAN/S WEATHER.

    AT THIS POINT…THE LATEST ECMWF KEEP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE EASTERN
    SEABOARD…WHILE THE GFS PIVOTS THE LOW FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE
    GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT ITS A BIT EARLY TO TELL HOW THINGS ARE
    GOING TO PLAY OUT. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS PIVOT THE LOW INTO
    CENTRAL/WESTERN PA AT 12Z TUESDAY…WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW
    CENTERED OVER MD/DE.

    WIND APPEARS TO BE OUR MAIN IMPACT FROM THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
    AS IT PIVOTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE EARLY TO
    MID WEEK TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE WINDY. THE GFS WOULD YIELD THE
    STRONGEST WINDS AS IT PIVOTS THE LOW TO LAKE ERIE…THEN SLOWLY
    NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
    ADVISORY TYPE WINDS ON THE LAND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH AND
    STORM WARNINGS POTENTIALLY ON THE LAKE. THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
    WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM WITH A LONG
    DURATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES. WE WILL BE MONITORING
    CLOSELY THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF THE DEPTH OF THE LOW
    AND HOW FAR WEST IT COMES.

    REGARDING PRECIPITATION…THE FARTHER EAST ECMWF WOULD DELAY THE
    PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AND GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. DID NOT MAKE
    MANY CHANGES AT THIS POINT…ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE
    AREA MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE EAST…CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. THERE
    COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY MONDAY
    NIGHT…OTHERWISE A COLD RAIN WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
    FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.

  2. caroldee says:

    Well as long as the power holds up at least we can stay warm if we are indoors.Glad I am not living nearer the east coast. Not looking forward to winter AT ALL.. :-(

  3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    This PhotoShopped Accuweather map is making the rounds on Facebook this morning: http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/269432_461252007250792_531193847_n.jpg

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      ROFL!!!!! That pretty much says it all!!

    2. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Funny! Except it’s not a winter storm, its a hurricane. Big difference.

      1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        And the map is from 2010… :)

  4. TinainVBcounty says:

    Really watching this!! Considering my sisters, elderly mom, and a huge chunk of my large family is in it’s path, my one sister in Maryland, my sister on the southern coastal area of Massachusetts, and about 150 people, including my mom in western Massachusetts!

  5. Tonka says:

    Bill,what’s your thoughts on this storm? I tuned I to the weather channel, but as always, they are not showing anything wether related. I did see Jim cantori on another station. Man that guy is excited. I am wondering will this storm be as big as the hype, they rarely are. What if anything could we see in west Michigan?

    I can’t stand winter anymore. College in the south spoiled me. Another winter like last year would be great.

    1. fixxxer says:

      The weather channel is all hype.

      1. Tom H. says:

        Not unlike Storm Team 8

  6. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    I think the low will end up going over the SOO. Not looking forward to the strong North winds. This weekend will be a good time to finish outdoor work.

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The low will never make it as far to the West as the GFS model is currently showing.

  8. TinainVBcounty says:

    Just wondering, if the cold air makes it to the great lakes region, does the system gain anything to it’s strength in terms of lake effect?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No this storm will be weakening by the time it gets to this area. It does not gain a bit of strength from the lake.

      1. Katie in Kentwood says:

        Rocky remember that this storm is colliding with a nor’easter, which could keep it going for a while I believe…

        1. Katie in Kentwood says:

          anddd I wish I could delete my comment lol. I worded it wrong :/

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          This storm will be weakening fast by the time it gets to our area. We may see a little wind and a cold rain shower. That is about it! The GFS is wrong again.

        3. Keep in mind that the GFS is not the only model showing the strong winds…

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The weather is going to be FANTASTIC this weekend. Get outside and enjoy it people!!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Enjoy 40 degree weather?

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Yes fixxxer some of us like to curl up by our fires and drink a cup of hot chocolate :)

      2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        It’s actually in the low 50s at the moment. Pretty decent for heavy yard work… I saw a lot of people out mowing their lawns and raking while I was running errands around town today.

      3. Katie in Kentwood says:

        Fixxy go outside, its gorgeous!!! I have spent too long hating every season but summer. Just enjoy it!

  10. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We are leaving for Concord, NC Wednesday night, and are driving through the night. Parts of West Virginia where we are suppose to drive thru are suppose to get 4-8″ of snow from Monday to Wednesday! It should be an interesting drive, and I’ll make sure to take pics to share!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Have a safe trip, Travis!!

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Thank you! They increased the expected snowfall totals significantly now!

  11. Tom (S Holland) says:

    Oh man! Cort S is not in Michigan to experience this. Maybe the next storm.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Were not getting any storm here.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        We will get a wind storm though fixxxer so I wouldn’t say that we won’t get any storm here

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Um – don’t forget he’s living on the STRONG side of the storm.

  12. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    000
    FXUS63 KGRR 271933
    AFDGRR

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    333 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    .SYNOPSIS…
    ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
    WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
    THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
    WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A POWER EAST COAST STORM
    WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AND
    SPREAD A BAND OF PRECIPITATION INTO MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY. IT WILL
    ALSO BECOME WINDY AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS. BY THURSDAY THE STORM WILL
    BE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
    IT.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
    PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS EAST COAST STORM
    RETROGRADES THROUGH PA. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE EXACT
    TRACK AND TIMING GOES. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST WEST..BUT ALL
    MODELS DO SHOW BETTER THAN 50 KNOTS OF WIND AT 850 MB MOVING IN
    STARTING WITH MON NIGHT. MIXING HEIGHTS SUGGEST GUST WILL BE ON
    THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
    SEE HEADLINE CRITERIA WINDS BY 12Z TUE…SO NO HEADLINE YET.

    AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION GOES…I MENTIONED CHANCE POPS
    STARTING MONDAY NIGHT FOR MY EASTERN COUNTIES. NOT GOING WITH THE
    NAM SOLUTION AS IT IS SO MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS
    AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. HOWEVER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
    A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO MI…AND THAT
    DOES SUPPORT THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST.
    SOUNDINGS DO RAISE A RISK FOR SNOW…ALTHOUGH WITH SURFACE TEMPS
    ABOVE FREEZING AND A POTENTIAL SLIGHT WARM LAYER AROUND 850
    MB…IMPACT POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO
    MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

    .LONG TERM…(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
    ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    12Z EURO AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
    NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED A FEW THINGS IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
    FRAME. LOWERED POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS OVERALL MODEL TRENDS THE
    LAST COUPLE DAYS ARE FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE WESTERN
    EDGE OF THE PRECIP. CONFINED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST
    FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL
    PROFILES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
    SNOW…ESPECIALLY AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT.

    12Z GFS SHOWS 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
    THIS MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE MIXING
    LAYER SO HIGH WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
    AND EVENING. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

    THE STORM FILLS AND MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
    ENDING AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
    FRIDAY. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
    SFC RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

  13. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    This really is the perfect storm. Rain snow wind the whole package. It could be dangerous with the cold weather to go without power for days. Hopefully this storm is more hype than anything. :/ and I’m glad I’m not on the east coast.

  14. jen says:

    Ok Bill we obviously need your help. Shall we go buy a generator or no?

    1. fixxxer says:

      I wouldnt tbh. Michigans not going to get the blunt of it.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Thanks for that fix. I’m sure everyone was worried that we were going to get the blunt of the hurricane.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      It’s always good to own a generator – because when you need it – often, the stores are sold out (widespread power outage). Even a small one will do – all you need to do is provide power for a few hours to your fridge to keep the food cold; or unplug the fridge and use the microwave, etc.

  15. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    The moon is looking pretty good this evening… ;-)

    Steelie

  16. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    Always interesting to read another opinion…

    000
    FXUS63 KAPX 272335
    AFDAPX

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
    735 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    .LONG TERM…(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
    ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    LARGE SCALE ANALYSIS/FORECAST: BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
    MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA…FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY REX BLOCKS OVER
    CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC OCEANS. HURRICANE
    “SANDY” WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OFF FLORIDA`S EAST COAST…AND WHILE
    THE ATLANTIC REX BLOCK HOLDS FIRM…ALL EYES WILL BE WATCHING THE
    LONG WAVE TROUGH ATTEMPT TO REEL IN “SANDY” AND PULL IT INTO THE
    EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY. AND WITH NOWHERE TO GO ALL INDICATIONS
    AT THIS POINT ARE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD CHUNK
    OF NEXT WEEK. BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE HOW FAR
    INLAND THE EASTERN STORM CAN PENETRATE…ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
    WIND POTENTIAL IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

    SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR “SANDY”
    AS OF THIS WRITING IS A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TRACK TO AROUND 37N
    LATITUDE…THEN A WESTWARD TURN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HOW HARD A
    TURN THE STORM MAKES IS STILL IN QUESTION…THOUGH THE GOAL POSTS
    ARE NARROWING BETWEEN THE DELMARVA AND LONG ISLAND FOR LANDFALL.
    TIMING WITH HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY WILL BE
    ONE OF THE KEYS REGARDING HOW THINGS EVOLVE. BUT WITH THAT BEING
    SAID…EXACTLY WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS AS FAR AS THE UPPER LAKES ARE
    CONCERNED IS NOT AS CRITICAL AS IS HOW FAR WEST DOES THE STORM AND
    ITS ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT REACH. NAM-WRF IS QUICKER WITH
    LANDFALL AND PULLS CYCLONE WELL WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
    TUESDAY. 27/06Z AND 27/12Z GFS RUNS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM ITS
    WESTWARD 27/00Z OUTLIER RUN…AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL NHC
    TRACK WILL LIFTS THE STORM NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK
    STATE IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE GGEM CONTINUES TO
    BE THE SLOWEST TO ALLOW THE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES TO INTERACT
    WITH “SANDY”…WITH RESULTS IN A (CONSISTENTLY) MORE NORTHERLY PUSH
    BEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS SHARPLY WEST ACROSS LONG ISLAND (AND A
    SUBSEQUENTLY LATER LANDFALL). WHILE THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE
    REFLECTIVE OF THE GFS/ECMWF…TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT ANYTHING YET
    SINCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WILL MEAN
    EVERYTHING.

    WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ELONGATED NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
    CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO
    THE MID ATLANTIC…WITH A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS
    SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ALONG WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
    PRESSURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. DEPENDING UPON WHERE
    THIS DEFORMATION ZONES SETS UP AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC
    CIRCULATION…CAN ENVISION SOME HIGH BASED AC/AS AND CI/CS TRYING TO
    SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. STILL NOT CERTAIN IF
    DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO NUDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST ON MONDAY TO
    BRING SOME PRECIP INTO NORTHEAST LOWER GIVEN THE RANGE OF
    POSSIBILITIES…AND THUS DON`T HAVE A COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO
    DEVIATE FROM FORECAST CONTINUITY (WHICH IS THE CURRENT DRY
    FORECAST). WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS
    NORTHEAST LOWER. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
    NORMAL…EVEN AS NORMAL HIGHS ARE DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN A FEW
    SPOTS.

    THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INLAND STORM TRACK STILL CLOUDS THE MONDAY
    NIGHT/TUESDAY FORECAST TIME FRAME…ESPECIALLY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE
    OF WINDS AND WHEN TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRICTLY FROM
    A PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE THINK THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
    PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST
    LOWER…SO PLAN TO CARRY POPS ROUGHLY BACK TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR
    MONDAY NIGHT…AND IT WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
    INTERIOR AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES. A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR
    WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY…SO WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
    BULLISH ON POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
    FORECAST AREA. WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION
    ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY…AND PROBABLY FOR MUCH
    OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

    EXTENDED FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER
    LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD…PRECIP TYPE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
    WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF WARMING FROM ATLANTIC AIR
    MASS GETTING PULLED AROUND LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION. WILL TRY TO DRY
    THINGS OUT STARTING THURSDAY…BUT NOT PUTTING MUCH FAITH IN
    POST-STORM GUIDANCE DETAILS UNTIL WE GET PAST THIS THING.

    &&

  17. fixxxer says:

    ^thats too much to read lol. I just know this cold spell sucks.

    1. Nathan says:

      I read it all :)

    2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Seems to be pretty typical for the Gaylord NWS… That was *just* the long term. Whoever is up there tends to write with a lot of detail.

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    PREDICTIONS:

    1. The low pressure system will not move as far West as predicted – the winds will be lower than the forecast. No power outages for the West MI area.

    2. Even though the Tigers are behind 2-0, they will win the game tonight. Final score 6-3.

    3. U of M will win the game in Nebraska tonight, even though the QB is injured!

    4. The Lions will win on Sunday and the offense will have a good game.

    5. We will see over 100 inches of snow this WINTER!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      So far, your 0-2
      Let’s see how the rest pans out.
      Losing Robinson tonight was a big loss.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Hey you can’t blame a guy for trying!

  19. Cort S. says:

    Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the United States. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2277

    Sandy is now tied for the 2nd largest Atlantic tropical cyclone since 1988. Winds of tropical storm force extend to 450 nautical miles from the center to the northeast. A large cyclone need not be strong to push a lot of ocean water up against the coast (see also Ike 2008). Short of a much stronger hurricane hitting there someday (which is hard to do because of cool ocean waters), this is getting very close to worst-case scenario for NYC and Long Island for storm surge, not to mention onshore winds. Irene came about a foot short of flooding NYC’s subway system. Depending on Sandy’s exact path and if the highest storm surge pushes in at high tide, storm tide could be a foot higher than Irene. A flooded subway system would be an automatic billions of dollars in damage. Jeff Masters is giving the subway flood a 30% chance.

    I’m in central New Hampshire under a High Wind Watch. I don’t expect flooding here or in Vermont like with Irene: we’ll get less rain and soils are drier. But there’s so darn many trees right next to all the power lines running along all the roads, I’ll be surprised if I don’t lose power. I’ve lost power for less.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      We’ll be keeping you in our good thoughts and prayers, Cort!

    2. karlac616 says:

      Sounds like any way you slice it, this will be a mess. Stay safe!

      One thing caught me eye…”2nd largest atlantic cyclone since 1988″. I kept hearing this past summer compared to the summer of 1988 (which was the year I graduated from high school…coupled with the drought that year, it was a memorable summer.). Do you think there’s some correlation with ocean temperatures and such to create these similar weather patterns? It’s interesting…in a cautionary way. And it makes me want to look up the hurricane that hit Long Island as well as the midwestern summer that year…was it 1938 or 39?

      1. Cort S. says:

        I would expect any correlation between a warm summer —> ocean temperatures —> large Sandy-ish storm to be weak at best. This is more of a rare combination of a cold trough moving through the United States, a hurricane, and a blocking high pressure system north of Greenland. The blocking high pressure system is important because it forces Sandy to merge with the trough, which Sandy would have ordinarily resisted doing. So a storm like this could happen in any given fall, just very rarely, but independent of summer heat.

  20. Cort S. says:

    From NHC:

    FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO
    AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO
    NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL…THE WIND
    HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
    CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY
    LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

    Watch/Warning map: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/

    A Hurricane Force Wind Watch is in effect for much of the Atlantic coastal marine zones. That’s one notch above Storm Warning. On Lake Michigan in the fall, we get Gale Warnings often, Storm Warnings maybe once or twice a year, and almost never a Hurricane Force Wind Warning. Only the greatest Great Lakes autumn cyclones in history would deserve such a warning.

    Also note that since Sandy’s sudden pressure deepening down to the low 960s millibars, the models today have been starting off Sandy with higher pressures than it actually has.

    Here is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from HPC for the next 5 days:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

  21. Cort S. says:

    National Hurricane Center statement concerning Sandy and the flow of information from the NWS.

    https://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov/posts/417921838273302

  22. hurricane hunter says:

    I’m on my way to Baltimore Md along with about 12 other people it should be interesting when and where it will make landfall. I’ve been in stronger hurricanes but I guess because this one is gonna effect 50 million people so they are making a big deal out of it. It looks like the stronger winds and heavier rain will be to our north, I hope to take some video of it while there.

    1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Be safe!

  23. fixxxer says:

    How about those tigers? ;)

  24. Benjamin (Kalamazoo) says:

    Well I’m out here in Detroit on a little mini vacation. I came here to see the Tigers win the world series, and well I hope I don’t return home empty handed :(

    Great weather over here though. Other than the fact its butt freezing cold. :(

  25. TACO BOY says:

    How About Fixxxer On Bill’s Blogg 24/7 N O L I F E!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol go eat another taco boy! ;)

    1. Cort S. says:

      Real-time earthquakes map: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

      TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 4
      NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
      948 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

      THE TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDES IN SE ALASKA.
      FORECASTS INDICATE HEIGHTS IN S CENTRAL ALASKA BELOW 30 CM.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Some how or another Fox News will have caused the earthquake.

    3. Cort S. says:

      BULLETIN
      TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
      NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
      709 PM HST SAT OCT 27 2012

      TO – CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

      SUBJECT – TSUNAMI WARNING

      A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0709 PM HST. THIS UPGRADE IS DUE TO THE SEA LEVEL READINGS RECEIVED AND THE RESULTING CHANGE IN THE HAWAII TSUNAMI FORECAST.

      http://www.tsunami.gov/text.php?id=hawaii.TSUHWX.2012.10.28.0514

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        They say earthquakes beget earthquakes, and a small one has fired near Santa Clarita. I wonder if the San Andreas fault will get frisky now??

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          I mention this mostly because there’s a stretch south of Parkfield, CA that’s been “stuck” for like 150 years, while the rest of the San Andreas Fault has been moving constantly. It must make the USGS folks a little nervous, because they’ve drilled a well down into the SAF to look at things. If you are into this sort of stuff, google “SAFOD well Parkfield”. Why do I care? My sis lives about 25 miles from there, in an area that she was told “never has earthquakes”.

  26. fixxxerswrist says:

    they are calling it obamas katrina, i dont know what to think but i do not think we will get severe, just wind maybe some rain but more typical of the pattern we are in since 2009, probaly no lightning even or snow. just cold and cloudy.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Ya, it’s bone chilling outside right now. My heating bill is about to go through the roof.

    2. Cort S. says:

      fixxxerswrist, I like you. You’re quite a character we have here. It’s nice to have you as a parody account, though you are technically trolling. But that’s okay; since fixxxer has admitted that he himself trolls people here, he should know how to shrug it off.

      Heal quickly. Stay strong. Keep calcifying.

      1. fixxxerswrist says:

        sir you are a gentleman and a patriot, master even says so, that is not to say the kids agree but they are out of control

      2. fixxxer says:

        in case you haven’t figured it out the fixxxerswrist is not me but another one of indy or skots personalities. i hear pinerest is looking for them.

  27. Jack says:

    Fixxxer + his Wrist = 2 trolls….. Lol…Brilliant … ;-)

  28. Scott (west olive) says:

    Thats some good stuff right there. :) Well let’s see some high winds. If anything should blow the leaves out of the yard.

  29. Dan says:

    Cool mornings and actually ok afternoons! I’m loving Fall in West Michigan!
    Do we actually get snow and rain mix Monday night/Tuesday morning?
    Winter is not too far away! Could we possibly have a white Halloween? That would be ghostly!

  30. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    TWC is showing winds as high as 40Mph with wind gust to 75 mph on the eastern side of the state and only 20 and gust to 45 here wow what a mph difference so it looks at this point Sandy will impact more of eastern Michigan than western

    1. fixxxer says:

      as ive been saying we won’t get much here from this. as a matter a fact i don’t think this super storm will amount to as much as they are predicting.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        That’s bold fixx. How about putting a dollar amount on your prediction so we can verify whether you were right or wrong.

        1. Katie in Kentwood says:

          he always thinks everything is overhyped. :(

      2. Mark(Okemos) says:

        For the record, tell us exactly how Sandy will play out. Where/when it will go, number of people without power, damage costs, etc.

  31. TreasureHunter says:

    Where can we find current (real-time) maps for the Jet Stream?

    1. Cort S. says:

      That data usually comes out twice a day after we launch the weather balloons (though the U.S. is launching balloons four times a day now because of Sandy).

      SPC is one site you could use: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/
      You want to look at the yellow box that says “Objectively analyzed maps (.gif format)”. Then find the row that says “12 Z” (that’s 8 a.m. EDT). And in that row, click on “250 mb”.

      We can also have models build a fairly accurate representation of the current jet stream setup too, any time we want.

      Click here for the 12 Z GFS model’s 5-day animation of what the jet stream is predicted to do. The first frame of the animation is a fairly accurate high-resolution representation of what the jet stream looked like at 8 a.m. today.

  32. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Local Weather Alert
    Winter Storm Watch for Raleigh, WV
    From 2:00 AM EDT, Mon., Oct 29, 2012 until 8:00 AM EDT, Wed., Oct 31, 2012
    Issued by The National Weather Service
    Charleston, WV

    … WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING…

    * LOCATIONS… BEST CHANCES ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN… BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE VALLEYS.

    * HAZARD TYPES… HEAVY WET SNOW… AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS… RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 2000 FEET… TO 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE 3000 FEET.

    * WINDS… INCREASING ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES COULD GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH.

    * TEMPERATURES… FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

    * TIMING… RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN. RIVER VALLEYS MAY STRUGGLE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

    * IMPACTS… THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS… CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. SNOW LOADING… OR THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW… MAY CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

    &&
    More Information

    … THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS…

    .A STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE WINDS ALOFT… WILL PULL HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD PRODUCE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      The part of West Virgina we are suppose to drive through on Thursday morning, and the elevation is 2900-3200′.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Travis – keep in mind that they don’t have winter road maintenance like we do – nor do the residents feel as comfy driving in snow as we do. All you need to ruin your day is one inexperienced driver on bad tires….

        1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          I couldn’t agree any more with you on that. Luckily we only have to stay on the turnpike through the entire state. And their average high for this time of the year is near 60°, and they have mainly been in the 70′s this entire month! It might be a mess down there though.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Charleston WV NWS has gone with a blizzard warning for the high elevations.

          http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rlx/

        3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yes, they are very inexperienced. My uncle lives over there and he has no idea how to drive in snow

  33. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
    1052 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

    .AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM
    THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY TO LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY CAUSING
    NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ON LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THIS
    PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES ON THE LAKE TO BUILD TO NEAR
    20 FEET. THE PERSISTENT STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES MAY
    RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND LAKESHORE FLOODING ALONG
    THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE LAKE.

    Steelie

  34. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    The Wunderground forecast page for Grand Rapids currently says the following for today:

    Today
    Snow Showers 48 °F
    Snow Showers
    20% chance of precipitation

    HUH?!

    1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Confirmed.

      .UPDATE…
      ISSUED AT 1203 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

      LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR
      LANSING FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND
      -11 DEG C. I ADDED A SMALL RISK FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON
      SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOP TO MKG.

  35. Mike in Hamilton says:

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    345 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

    MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-290345-
    /O.NEW.KGRR.WI.Y.0006.121029T2100Z-121031T0000Z/
    MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
    MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
    INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LUDINGTON…BALDWIN…REED CITY…
    CLARE…HART…FREMONT…BIG RAPIDS…MOUNT PLEASANT…MUSKEGON…
    GREENVILLE…ALMA…JENISON…GRAND RAPIDS…IONIA…ST. JOHNS…
    HOLLAND…HASTINGS…CHARLOTTE…LANSING…SOUTH HAVEN…
    KALAMAZOO…BATTLE CREEK…JACKSON
    345 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

    …WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WIND
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT
    TUESDAY.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER…

    * NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATER
    MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE WINDS EARLY
    MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY TO 40 TO
    50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ON THE LAKESHORE.

    * THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON NEW JERSEY MONDAY AND HEAD WEST
    INTO PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY.

    IMPACTS…

    * SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY

    * DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST/WEST ROADS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    * WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY FOR
    HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

    * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT
    HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG.

  36. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    So we could lose power? better get the generator out as I lose power a lot lol!

  37. Red in Allegan Co. says:

    My husband is a long haul driver and left for Florida yesterday. Just talked to him and he said he saw many power company trucks (Georgia, Alabama, Florida) heading north.

  38. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Bill the comments are off on the new thread

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