Windy Sandy – updateOctober 27th, 2012 at 2:29 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
Sunday 8:45 PM - Buoys offshore of Hatteras are showing gusts to 60-65 mph with 25-35 foot waves. Piney Island has a steady wind of 38 mph with gusts to 52 mph. Check out the wave forecast! It’s got waves over 20 feet at the shore in New York and New Jersey and up to 45-50 feet in a small area offshore!! 24-hour rainfall totals in far eastern N.C. have been around 5-6″. Here’s the maximum 900 mb winds (from WeatherBell). This would be at a lower level close to the center of the storm where pressures are lower (maybe 2,000 feet) and higher over Michigan where the pressure won’t be as low, but that’s 60-64 knots (69-74 mph) less than a mile off the ground. Landfall Monday evening/night in southern New Jersey (this would bring very strong east wind and storm surge west down Long Island Sound). This is the GFS model map for 2 PM Tuesday. Click the image to enlarge. The center of the storm (Sandy) is now forecast to come farther west. That puts West Michigan into stronger wind and gives us a greater chance of showers/period of rain and still open is the possibility for a period of mixed precipitation. The NAM (Caribou) model which goes out to 72 hours gives G.R. a steady (sustained) wind of 23 knots at 10 AM Tuesday morning. That’s 26 mph – and we’d probably be getting gusts 35… and that’s with a temperature of 39. With cold air coming across the relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan, winds would be stronger at the lake. The NAM (caribou) gives S. Haven a steady wind of 33 knots (38 mph) Tuesday morning! That’s not the gusts, that’s a steady wind! And that’s for the airport, not the beach! That kind of wind would create huge waves on Lake Michigan (open water probably 15-20 feet! The regular NAM mos data shows the wind at 20 knots in G.R. (23 mph) by Monday afternoon. The GFS model for Halloween isn’t quite as windy…but it’s still plenty breezy with light showers and chilly temperatures. The European model gives G.R. 0.35″ of cold, intermittent rain from late Tuesday through Weds. night, with a chance of a little wet snow mixing in. Also: Quite a bit of snow across Canada and Russia already…another sign that this winter won’t be as wimpy as last winter.