Happy Halloween

October 31st, 2012 at 12:41 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   9:20 PM – I just talked to my wife.  We have not had one single trick-0r-treater tonight at my house.  The most we ever had was 27 and the least was 3 (and we’ve been there through 35 Halloweens!).  Oh, well – I get candy when I come home!!  Click the picture to enlarge or click here.  This is four pictures of snow in the U.P. this morning from the NWS in Marquette.  Up to 4″ of snow has fallen across the U.P. with Negaunee, Grand Marais and Ishpeming all reporting about 3-4″ of new snow.  We’ll see widely scattered sprinkles/light showers this PM/tonight.  The new NAM prints out only a trace to 1/10th” (a few lakeshore spots) of additional rainfall.  October will end up slightly cooler than average.  It’ll be the first month of cooler than average temperatures since Sept. 2011.  The Average temperature for August in G.R. was exactly average and September was only +0.1 above average…so the period from August 1 to October 31 is going to come out almost exactly average.  Today is the 6th day in a row with a north or northwest wind.  We’ve had at least a trace of rain on 21 of 31 days in October and measurable rain on 16 days this month (today could be the 17th day).  We’ve had 6.23″ of rain this month in G.R., 6.71″ in Muskegon and 7.58″ in Holland.  Sandy drove cool air down into the Southeast.  The low temperature this morning was 29 in Rome GA and 36 in Tallahassee FL.  At one point we had over 130,000 customers without power in Michigan from the winds of Sandy, mainly in Southeast Michigan and especially near Lake Huron.  As I write this, that figure is down to 30,000.  Here’s the GFS model maps for Election Day next Tuesday.  Overall it’ll be a quiet day.  We could see a little light rain or even a mix in the PM, but roads would just be wet.  There will be showers in the Northeast and possibly some snow in the highest elevations of PA, NY and VT.  If anything, November looks a little on the cool side for Michigan and I still expect snow at some point in mid-November.  This will be the coolest and snowiest November since at least 2008 (and I don’t have the figures before 2008 here at home, so I may change that to an earlier year).  Temperatures will be in the low 40s this evening for trick-or-treat with a northwest wind at 10-15 mph.

Cool pictures here.

64 Responses to “Happy Halloween”

  1. MM(Belmont) says:

    Bill, when is the winter forecast coming out? Going to be doing a lot of driving this year for work throughout West Central MI to Northern IN.

  2. fixxxer says:

    yay, no snow today so i get to be my normal “cheerful” self this entire winter! what you think of that mike? ;)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      The whole winter???? I LIKE snow – but not promising I’ll be happy about it every single day…..

      1. Mike Geukes says:

        if I had a snow machine, I would make snow

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I saw snow.

  3. ninifere says:

    A wet sleety mix falling with 39* in NE GR

  4. Mike Geukes says:

    REVISED OFFICIAL Forecasts
    November 2012
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Just two weeks ago many were hyping that we would have well below average temps in Nov with snow – now the CPC is forecasting near average temperatures. Imagine that? All of the hype with long range forecasting is very amusing!

      1. Cort S. says:

        A lot of what we get here on the blog are rumors. I don’t think the CPC’s November forecast from two weeks ago was showing below-average temperatures in Michigan. Especially not well-below average.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          No it was just Joe B, ACCUweather and just a few other expert meteorologists!

  5. Mr. Negative says:

    Yet another “happy”, windy, cold, sleeting, damp, worthless Halloween.

    1. fixxxer says:

      yeah it is pretty crappy today. my kids went to woodland for trick or treating.

  6. ninifere says:

    Mix has now changed to all sleet in NE GR

  7. INDY says:

    Lgt. Snow and Fog temp 38* out at thee YARDofBRICKS…Happy Hallowoaweenee!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      lay off the sprites as i see no snow or sleet. lol.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Well, it isn’t precipitating in Wyoming either. It is in other parts of GR metro:
        http://i.minus.com/i09Bc6VSDCEW.png
        This precipitation is very localized.

      2. Cort S. says:

        0525 PM 10/31/2012
        SLEET
        2 W ADA KENT MI
        NWS EMPLOYEE
        SOME SLEET WAS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.

  8. fixxxer says:

    also i don’t apologize often but i hope i didn’t offend anyone with my comment in the last thread. i didn’t mean the storm didn’t cause damage or loss of life i just meant it wasn’t as widespread bad as they were hyping it up to be. you know the “superstorm” /
    “perfect storm” scenario. i still feel bad for them and am glad it wasn’t what they were thinking would happen.

    1. INDY says:

      Ok Superman………

    2. Barb says:

      Are you kidding me? It’s the most widespread and worst damage in our history!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Well said and you are 100% correct and fixxxer is 100% wrong!

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Remember that fixxxer is the person that said we were not getting much of a snowstorm a couple years ago while we were actually getting a blizzard and over 12 inches of snow! He does not face reality and usually has the facts wrong!

      3. Cort S. says:

        I’ll add some qualifiers to Barb’s statement, since it is debatable:

        NYC and New Jersey coast: worst storm surge damage ever seen, at least in anybody’s lifetime who is alive today.

        Expense: Likely to be in the 10s of Billions of dollars, ranking somewhere up in the Top 5 most expensive hurricane disasters in the U.S. Note that this was not your typical Gulf Coast or Florida / North Carolina hurricane either.

        Widespread: The tropical-storm-force wind field of the Hurricane Sandy / nor’easter combo were almost 1000 miles in diameter, the largest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean since we started keeping track in 1988. Because this had elements of both a hurricane and a baroclinic (frontal) nor’easter, the strong wind gusts above 50-60-70-80 mph were spread very far away from the center, unlike a typical hurricane, which would have the its strongest winds confined nearer to its center.

        1. Cort S. says:

          One more caveat: it is difficult to determine at this time which storm was worse for the New Jersey coast: The 1962 Ash Wednesday Nor’easter or Hurricane Sandy. Different communities fared differently in either storm. Aside from 1962, Sandy was the worst for the NJ coast in recent memory.

    3. Cort S. says:

      I’m being polite here, fix. I’m not offended, but I’m trying to understand what you expected a “superstorm” to be like.

      Did you expect a 50-mile-wide tornado-like vortex to carve up the landscape all the way from Atlantic City to Pittsburgh?

      Did you expect a “Day After Tomorrow” type of storm surge in New York City?

      What exactly were you expecting?

      Because if you were to break down the superlative titles that people were throwing around and actually look at the weather forecasts for the many different locations affected, you would see that aside from right near the coast, it would just be an unusually rainy/snowy and windy day, with winds in many locations gusting above 60, and isolated spots above 70. Near the coast, gusts around or above 80 were expected, and those happened. But this storm was much wider in diameter than your typical nor’easter or hurricane, so it affected everyone from northern New England down to Virgina and over to Lake Michigan in some way. And the problem with the Northeast is, we’ve got a lot of trees still in leaf and we’ve got a lot of powerlines running through them to serve tens of millions of people. This was a really big and unusually strong nor’easter, but with some hurricane-like elements in the middle of it. Not strong enough to flatten entire forests and homes, but enough to knock down enough trees to put millions of customers in the dark.

      The storm surge in New York City and the NJ coast exceeded expectations. Our forecasts were pretty dire and people who lived on the NJ Barrier Islands were warned that they might die if they didn’t evacuate. But we were unsure if the water would get high enough to flood the NYC Subway system. One of the hurricane damage experts gave a 50% chance that the NYC Subway would flood. It did. And 7 of the road tunnels connecting Manhattan to Brooklyn/Queens too. It was the highest storm tide ever recorded in the NYC metro area, exceeding the previous record by two and a half feet. Many iconic New Jersey oceanside attractions are heavily damaged or completely destroyed. The damage along much of their coastline is unlike what New Jerseyans have ever seen in their lifetimes.

      The other problem was the rain. The heaviest amounts were supposed to fall on the west and southwest side of the storm, with the most being received in Maryland and Delaware, with some locations getting 8-12 inches of rain. That happened.

      The other problem was the snow. The highest elevations of West Virginia expected a blizzard with feet of heavy snow. That happened.

      So, why is this called a “superstorm”? A number of reasons, ranging from meteorological freakishness and rarity (in many different ways), to the intensity of the damage that New York and New Jersey received, to the breadth of the impacts, which covered everyone from Maine to Michigan to Georgia. But you would have to get the Hollywood disaster movie images out of your brain and investigate the varied local weather impact forecasts in order to better understand what to expect. And it is also important to get your forecasts from actual meteorologists and emergency managers, and not from hearsay.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Also – because of the “spectacular” damage done to the seashore and Manhattan communities – we aren’t hearing about the “others”. I suspect there’s worse damage inland than from Irene – but it’s not as newsworthy as the roller coaster sitting in the ocean.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          And there’s the peripheral damage – I heard last night that a section of another neighborhood had burned – probably due to either candles or heat sources used due to power outages?? How many people might die due to CO poisoning, trying to stay warm?? What about all the people that have been shuttled to different hospitals – did any of them not make it?? The list goes on and on.

    4. Hugh says:

      Gee Whiz – at least 61 people have died (as far as I know at this writing), thousands without power, who knows how many are without homes, who has missing family, how many children are in need of warmth and comfort and food, how many are waiting to be rescued by our first responders? I’m glad you feel bad.

      1. Hugh says:

        This is for Fiz, not everyone

    5. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

      Your an idiot, go look at some of the pictures and videos. There will always be a more worse scenario, but come on. There is complete devastation in a lot of parts out east. Sometimes you need to learn that what you say is just nonsense and no one really wants to hear it..seriously.

  9. INDY says:

    Hey Bill feeling mid 60′s for the Middle of November, I hope it snows!! INDYY..

      1. INDY says:

        love it!!!! INDYY…

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Just a reminder that the long range winter forecast is just a best guess and remember every single expert was WRONG about last winter. With that said I just checked the long range RDB model and it shows GR getting about 100 inches of snow this winter. Bring it on!

    1. fixxxer says:

      lol here we go again!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes fixxxer winter is almost here. Get ready for SNOW, COLD and more SNOW! Get ready to ROCK N ROLL!!!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I like your forecast, Rocky!

  11. fixxxer says:

    my god it’s freezing out tonight, poor kids. my kids could only do one block as it started raining. not many people out tonight at all. what are we running about 10-11 below normal? feels more like late november out.

  12. INDY says:

    Most kids in 5 years out in thee northend of town!! INDYY…

    1. fixxxer says:

      Hardly none in wyoming but woodland was packed.

  13. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Just back from over two hours of trick or treating. Nice night for walking if you just dressed for it.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Did you dress up as joe.b this year?

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Nope, went as fixx’s mom. Scared EVERYONE!

  14. Cort S. says:

    Partial subway service resumes in NYC tomorrow. Here is a map. Shaded areas are offline.

    http://www.mta.info/sites/default/files/pdf/HurricaneRecoveryMapOct312012.pdf

    Streets were jammed with vehicles today as the only way to travel to work was by road.

    Manhattan-bound cars on East River bridges, RFK & Hudson Bridges, Lincoln Tunnel need 3+ people Thu & Fri 6am-12am.

  15. fixxxer says:

    Hey bill if we dont all die in december can we jump ahead to july right after the holidays? ;)

    1. Hugh says:

      Are you completely insane? Or are you the most selfish person on earth?

      1. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

        Hugh, what is insane is the amount of trolling commited by Fixxxer.

  16. kevin. w says:

    Just so anyone knows my sister lives about 45 minutes from New York City and its worse than what the media is saying. There are thousands of trees, telephone poles snapped powerlines every where hundreds upon thousands of houses either close to total loss or just gone. This will take YEARS to rebuild this and she says it looks like an apocalypse hit them. They told where she works that there is know place to come to work or do anything. Her house is about 50% damaged but looks to be repairable IF the snows don’t come so (IF)someone can help fix all the damage. She says she can see the fires burning from where she lives as she lives up on a hill looking down toward the coast. So what your hearing with the media its worse than what your seeing or hearing because I’ve heard straight from a very reliable source. I’ve also heard that the some parts of the subway may not open for a year due to cracks in the walls or all the sea water effecting all the electrical wires. JUST A COMPLETE DISASTER OUT THERE!

    1. Cort S. says:

      Is she on Long Island, upstate, or New Jersey? I bet Long Island got demolished more than we even know, because either the media is in New Jersey or NYC, and it might be hard to access Long Island. They got blasted with strong wind gusts for a long time. Something like 79 mph at JFK at 90 mph at Islip?

  17. kevin. w says:

    I see a few mistakes but I’m dead tired so sorry for the typos, guess to lazy to proofread tonight.

  18. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Hey Bill, I’ll be staying in Wilmette this weekend with extended family. Gonna bring the kids to the Shedd Aquarium. Haven’t been there in years. What’s your best suggested route, or does it not even matter once you hit the Dan Ryan.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Wilmette is north of Chicago and you have to drive thru Chicago to get there from here. There are too many cars and too few roads and there’s no easy way to get there. I’ve had trips where it’s taken me longer to get to Wilmette from Gary, Indiana than from Grand Rapids to Gary. I usually pay the tolls and take the Indiana Toll Road to the Skyway, then up the Dan Ryan. It turns into the Kennedy and then the Edens. Stay on I-94. You get off at the Lake Avenue exit in Wilmette.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I was just in Chicago two weeks ago and did many of the museums. My favorite was the Museum of Science and Industry…it had really cool interactive stuff and neat Weather demonstrations. If you can make it, go there!

      If possible, try to drive through Chicago during mid morning or after 7 in the evening if you want to avoid sitting in traffic. We stayed near Ohare and when we first got there and when we left it took us about one and a half to two hours just to get from one side of Chicago to the other! Have a fun visit.

  19. Brian(Grandville) says:

    That’s about what I thought. Just a very congested city to drive through. Not looking forward to the drive.

  20. fixxxer says:

    As fast as summer and th fall has flown by i can only hope winter will as well.

  21. fixxxer says:

    Dont eat too much candy bill lol.

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Fizzzer , I hear they did Self – Portriat Carvings Today at The Mall….Good News I Found Yours..http://blueridgeblog.blogs.com/.a/6a00d8341c831253ef01053570ef21970b-800wi

      1. fixxxer says:

        Naw im in a good mood despite this crappy cold weather.

      2. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

        Easy on the cut and paste bro. Like a kid in a candy store. On a good note though now when you “spin” this or that, it will work better. here is a Non sequitur: http://youtu.be/2WzeqMhtFNs

        1. Jack says:

          Ya Got That Right BRO.. About The Candy Store ( sorry ) ,Also.. CUE :The rolling stones – Get off of My cloud – YouTube

          ► 2:51► 2:51
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kqGcBIkM4I
          Aug 21, 2008 – 3 min – Uploaded by TheLunatiks
          Rolling stones picture slide show Get off of my cloud.

Leave a Reply