Happy Halloween

October 31st, 2012 at 12:56 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  Since we’ll still have a few widely scattered light showers and sprinkles around, I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog.  We could see a snowflake or a very small amount of sleet/ice pellets, but that would be isolated.  Temperatures will remain above freezing, so roads may be wet at times.  Temperatures will be in the low 40s while the kids are out this evening with inland winds this evening around 10-15 mph.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map.

Snowfall from Sandy:  29″ Redhouse MD, 28″ Davis W VA, 22″ Newfound Gap NC, 20″ Mt. LaConte TN.  Rainfall:  12.55″ Easton MD, 11.67″ Wildwood Crest NJ, 9.57″ Virginia Beach  VA.   More wind reports:  88 mph Montclair NJ, 86 mph Westerly R.I., 81 mph Allentown PA, 79 mph Highland Beach MD, 68 mph Cleveland OH, 63 mph Portland ME, 60 mph Gary IN.   Tuesday was the 2nd day in a row that temperatures held in the 60s at Tampa and Orlando.  It was the 2nd day with a 56 deg. high temperature in Atlanta.  Other chilly highs:  46 Knoxville TN (2nd day in the mid 40s), 39 Bristol TN, 37 London KY, 36 Sault Ste Marie, 30 Chapleau, Ontario (north of S.Ste Marie), 19 Red Deer, Alberta.  Record low barometer readings:   Harrisburg PA 28.46″, Baltimore MD 28.49″, Trenton NJ 28.31, Atlantic City 28.00″, Lowest pressure over water 27.76″ (this was NOT a record…the lowest was during hurricane Gladys in 1977).

It’s also been very cold in Alaska.  Tuesday morning it was -14 at Bettles and -7 at Fairbanks.  Fairbanks has been below zero 5 of the last 9 mornings and they are running 2 deg. cooler than average for Oct.   Record lows in southern Alaska:  14 Yakutat, 11 Juneau (broke record by 12 degrees) and 15 at Eaglecrest (broke record by 13 degrees).

Grand Rapids will end October slightly cooler than average for the month and the period from August 1 – Oct. 31 will be very close to average for temperatures and slightly above average for rainfall.

 

33 Responses to “Happy Halloween”

  1. fixxxer says:

    Any indoor trick or treating anywhere? Like woodland or rivertown?

    1. Jack says:

      Hey, Fix.!! Woodland has Indoor from 3pm til 5pm..! You might be a little TOOOOO OLD, for Trick -r- Treatin..Fix…Just Sayin and,or, Kiddin…PEACE.

    2. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

      Check Wood Tv Main Page there is a link there for a list of indoor trick or treating.

      1. fixxxer says:

        not many places doing anything this year. kinda disappointing considering the cold / rainy weather.

  2. kevin. w says:

    If the NAO stays negative like this map shows this winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml then I’m saying were going to end up colder and snowier with the EPO showing a good winter coming.

    On a another note I feel for the people out east with that huge storm! I wonder if they realize while there all in a “what just happened here” environment and a type of “noreaster”/”hurricane” storm they got? The snow is just about knocking on the door for snowstorms/blizzards/noreasters that the rebuilding is going to be basically a “B***”. AND with a consistent -NAO I feel that the eastern U.S. (including the midwest) is going to experience a rough winter. Prayers to the east!!!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      This morning, I was watching some folks on the East Coast being interviewed – and for ONCE, everybody was saying “this kicked our butt – the Weather Forecast was right”. The cleanup is going to be long and costly – keeping the folks affected in my prayers.

    2. fixxxer says:

      as of now i see a mild start to november if it pans out kevin.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Don’t know exactly what data you’re looking at, but I see warm ridging in the West US and cold troughing in the East US for the next week. That does not seem like a mild start to November.

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F31%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

        By the way, the CPC’s temperature and precipitation outlook for November comes out this afternoon! Watch for it!

        1. Cort S. says:

          Yeah, I know you hate data and you think it’s bogus, but if you want, you could look at the AccuWeather, NWS, and Storm Team 8 forecasts for the first week of November. Aside from a day or two, I don’t see many high temperatures that even get above 50. Keep in mind that the average highs in Grand Rapids for the first week of November are 54, decreasing to 52 by the end of week 1.

        2. fixxxer says:

          im not looking at accuweather cort, so stop assuming. doesn’t matter as nobody knows what will happen for sure. that’s why i said “IF’ it pans out. how did that “superstorm” pan out for the nws? because im seeing some nasty comments on blogs regarding the hype. yes i know a few died and there was damage but it was nowhere near what they were hyping up for days.

        3. fixxxer says:

          sorry cort didn’t mean to be rude to you per say. just making my point that weather is too hard to predict. so before anybody gives me hell about my comment i know it caused damage but i still think it was nowhere near what it was suppose to be, thank god of course.

        4. GunLakeDeb says:

          Fixxx – are you not watching the news???? Sandy was awful – just awful. I’m kind of sad that there are historical places along the coast that I’ve not seen – and they will never be the same again. Millions of people don’t have power; and it’s November in the NE.

        5. Cort S. says:

          Fixxxer, my friend… I hate to inform you that you are definitely reading comments from the ignorant side of the internet. It doesn’t seem as though you have read any of the comments or viewed any of the pictures that I have posted on this blog in the past two days, regarding Sandy’s destruction. You need better sources.

          This is the worst hurricane disaster in New York City’s history. The ocean levels rose to levels never-before measured: a full 2 and a half feet higher than they were in the Hurricane of 1821. The U.S. damages to this storm will be in the tens of billions of dollars, which puts it in the top 5 most expensive disasters in U.S. history. More than a few people died. Right now the death toll is greater than 50 people in the United States. This constitutes roughly half of the total deaths of from all countries affected. And I can’t even begin to describe the damage on the Jersey Shore. These are all pictures which were taken in the same country you live in:

          http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-after-landfall/100396/

          The barometric pressure in this storm was tied for the lowest that was ever measured in the Northeast US: 946 mb, which was also measured during the great Hurricane of 1938. Atlantic City NJ, Philly PA, and Wilmington DE had their lowest barometric pressure ever recorded, which was lower than the March 1993 Storm of the Century. Hurricane Sandy’s tropical-storm-force wind field was the largest ever measured in the Atlantic Ocean (since we started keeping track in 1988). Its wind field was 945 miles in diameter. The models were NOT overdoing the intensely low pressure like I felt they were. In fact, this storm exceeded predictions in both measured wind gusts and storm surge.

        6. Cort S. says:

          “im not looking at accuweather cort, so stop assuming. doesn’t matter as nobody knows what will happen for sure. that’s why i said “IF’ it pans out.”

          Okay, so what exactly are you looking at which leads you to the conclusion that the start of November will be mild? Nothing? How can you “see” a mild start to November if you aren’t even looking at anything, nary even a simple forecast from anywhere?

          Nobody knows for sure? Of course, but I give you odds far better than a coin flip that the pattern will happen generally as I described it. Remember that jet stream map that I posted a couple days ago? Showing how the jet stream is farther north (ridge) in the West US and farther south (trough) in the East US? And how that explains why it is warmer than normal in the West and colder than normal in the East? That pattern is going to persist through the first 7 days of November.

          Don’t believe the one model I posted above? How about 20 models?

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F31%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SPAGHETTI+CHARTS&pname=500_528_570_ht&pdesc=&model=GEFS-SPAG&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

          Every single one of them shows a warm ridge in the West, and a cold trough in the East, out through at least next Tues or Weds. You ain’t gonna find odds like that in any sports match or casino!

        7. GunLakeDeb says:

          Cort said: “comments from the ignorant side of the internet”

          Nicely put – it’s easy for people in Los Angeles, for example, to “armchair quarterback” and make snide remarks. I’d be willing to bet that ANYONE who was getting the brunt of the storm will agree the NWS did a remarkable job of predicting the strength of something never-before-encountered in our age of technology??

        8. Cort S. says:

          From Deb: “It’s easy for people in Los Angeles, for example, to “armchair quarterback” and make snide remarks.”

          Right, but it doesn’t even have to be someone from Los Angeles. It could even be somebody from inland New Jersey who saw nothing more than rain and some gusty winds, which was all they were supposed to see. If they were lucky enough not to have a tree fall on their property, then they’ll think that the “superstorm” amounted to nothing for anybody. Sounds similar to the tunnel-vision that a few bloggers exhibit here whenever Michigan gets a storm.

          Here are some more pictures from the United States. You can get in your car and drive here in a matter of hours to see this for yourself. You don’t even need to bring your Passport!

          Breezy Point, NY: http://www.businessinsider.com/breezy-point-aerial-photo-2012-10

          Jersey shore: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytg3aJww3r4
          (You’re looking at sand which is 1-2 feet deep in spots on every single street in that video).

          You may want to do a video or image search for the Seaside Heights pier roller coaster which is now IN the Atlantic Ocean!

        9. fixxxerswrist says:

          cort have you seen day after tomorrow, it is a movie they were hyping as what would happen, now look it is nothing like that movie yeah i know there are a few dead and some damage but it was not the end of the world, to hyped.

        10. Cort S. says:

          You are a highly evolved being, fixxxerswrist. You would make the front page on all the medical journals if people knew that you are able to type full sentences without the permission of the cerebrum.

  3. Tonka says:

    Please bring summer back.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      It always comes back eventually…. =)

    2. fixxxer says:

      +100000000000000000000000

  4. Jeff (Nothern Ionia) says:

    Not to bad right now here in Ionia, Still quite cold but wind isnt to bad and no rain as of now.

  5. Phil McKracken says:

    Its Wildwodd Crest not Creek Bill. I’m from NJ and spent my childhood summers there. Great place! My heart breaks for the people along the shore in NJ.

  6. Phil McKracken says:

    ugh..Wildwood Crest.type to fast!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Thanks, Phil – I fixed it.

  7. GunLakeDeb says:

    Here’s a question: does an area of super-low air pressure actually allow water below the center, to rise?? I’m picturing a side view of the ocean to look like a low “volcano”, under the center of the storm?? If that’s the case, does the Hurricane Center figure that in its predictions of storm surge?? Or is water too heavy to be affected by barometric drops?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Yes! You are right! The low atmospheric pressure is part of the storm surge calculation. It does create a dome of high water in the center of the storm. But the majority of water rise is due to the wind.

      I’ve got a couple diagrams that can illustrate this:

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/42/Storm_surge_graphic.svg

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

      In the second source, it says that the pressure-driven surge is about 5% of the total surge.

      And there are other factors that can affect the height of the storm surge at a particular location:

      What side of the storm’s center you are on.

      Forward speed of the storm.

      The angle at which the storm approaches the coast.

      Size of the storm, and how far out the strong winds extend from the center.

      The shape of the coastline: water will funnel down into bays and a concave coastline, increasing the height of the water.

      The bathymetry of the coast: how deep the sea floor is and how far out the shallow waters extend from the coast.

      The tide: You don’t want your storm surge to hit at high tide.

      New York City and New Jersey had the misfortune of having the majority of these factors come together in the worst possible way for them.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Thanks, Cort – that was interesting!

        One more question, then: they said the full moon also affected the tide – but if you think about it, whether we see the whole moon or not – it’s still there with the same gravitational pull, right??

        1. Cort S. says:

          It has to do with how the moon lines up with the sun and earth. We get a small contribution of our tides from the sun, so when the moon arranges itself to form a straight line with the sun and earth, the high tides are a little higher and the low tides are a little lower. During the full and new moon is when the tides are most amplified.

  8. Mike Geukes says:

    REVISED OFFICIAL Forecasts
    November 2012
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

    1. Cort S. says:

      Looks like they’re gunning for a warm ridge in the jet stream in the West, and a cold trough in the jet stream in the East. We’re already predicted to have this type of pattern for the first week in November. There will be day-to-day variability in this jet stream pattern, but it seems more probable that this will be the average mode that the jet stream pattern will be in.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Do you see the precip as being primarily snow?? Kind of hoping so :-)

        1. Cort S. says:

          It will be cold enough above the ground this week for us to see snow… IF we were to get a system moving through. But it doesn’t look like we’ll see good chances of precip for much of the next week. Any systems that do move through will be the weak, moisture-starved Alberta Clipper type. Not really looking to amount to a whole lot. Storm Team 8′s forecast is suggesting we’ll have the best precip chances next week Weds-Thurs. Looks like a mix of snow and rain at this point.

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