Scattered Showers

November 9th, 2012 at 3:54 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  Saturday AM – We still have a chance of a shower, so I’ll leave the radar up top here.  Friday was the first day that we have reached 50 since Oct. 28th and the warmest day since Oct. 25th.  It’s also the first day warmer than average in the last half month.   Looks warm for the weekend, much colder Monday/Tuesday.  Temperatures could fall nearly 20 degrees from daybreak to evening on Monday and the rain showers will change to snow showers.  We could actually get a few slick spots on the roads Tuesday AM if it snows hard enough (a big if at this point), but nothing major in terms of snowfall.  The average high/low is now 51/34, so it’s early for snow to stick.   A day 10 degrees colder than average still makes the low 40s.  I can’t rule out a shower at Ann Arbor or at EMU for the football games Saturday, but the odds are less than 50/50 during the games.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map.

22 Responses to “Scattered Showers”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I agree – rain will be hit or miss. Do not change your outdoor plans. In fact start making some outdoor plans, so you can enjoy the very nice November temps!

  2. Kimoeagle says:

    Well, I don’t know about “…further north..”, but we, in Angola, are getting a ‘ripple’of showers coming W-E.In Michigan, Sturgis and Coldwater are getting some rain, and the “ripple” extends down to FWA. No violent stuff, but we are seeing some lightning, along with thunder.

  3. Nathan says:

    Wow, the week ahead looks crazy! Warm and sunny on Sunday and cold and snow on Monday night?? Sounds awesome! Bill, could you just lower the temperatures a little bit more from Tuesday-Saturday? Then maybe we could get some of that precipitation to fall in the form of snow!

  4. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    This s gonna be a GREAT weekend. GET OUTSIDE… enjoy it… cause it looks like next week will bring in the cold air (probably for good)

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Um, by next weekend it’s back in the ’50′s again…….

  5. Mike in Hamilton says:

    Check out Michigan on the hazards map…

    I know this is very vague, but at least it’s interesting to think about!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

    1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      That map makes no sense compared to NOAA’s CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, because they are indicating well above normal temps. so it’ll be hard to get any kind of heavy snow in the near future! One of the three maps is probably off, and my guess its this one!???

      1. Cort S. says:

        The 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks are currently valid for November 15-19 and 17-23, respectively.

        The heavy snow outline in the hazards outlook is for November 12-13.

        Here is the “heavy snow” event: Click here. It’s a lake-effect snow situation after the passage of a significant cold front on Monday morning. Temperatures at 850 mb are down to -10°C over Lake Michigan at that time. To call it “heavy snow” may be a bit overdone, but West Michigan could possibly see its first accumulating snow of the season on Monday night:

        COLD AIR COMES SLAMMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO C AT 12Z MONDAY TO -10C AT 00Z THAT EVENING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PULLS AWAY WITH THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON…SO RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO GET GOING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT WHERE DELTA T/S WILL INCREASE TO A SUBSTANTIAL 20 DEG C. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT BUT FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING IT SOME. THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY STIFF MONDAY EVENING (850MB 270/30KTS) SO THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS. AS THE TIME FRAME COMES CLOSER WE WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE AMOUNTS…BUT MOISTURE AND THE QUICKNESS IN WHICH THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING OUT ARE NEGATIVES TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          There will not be a “heavy snow event”. It is outrageous for them to even mention this! What a joke. If this is a sign of how they are going to forecast for this upcoming winter I would suggest no one listen to one single word that they say! What a joke.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Yes, to call it “heavy snow” is likely overdone, but consider what you are looking at. It’s a generalized hazard outlook map. It is designed to be an awareness booster for medium-term hazards which are coming down the pipe. This is not meant to replace location-specific forecasts which are issued by the WFOs. Do you think every single rain gauge within the “heavy rain” outline is going to see what you would consider heavy rain amounts?

          From the hazards outlook page:
          “Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.”

          Okay, so let’s do that. Read the forecast discussion that I posted above. This is certainly not being blown out of proportion like you think it is.

          Perhaps you’re mad because you won’t be able to go golfing on Monday?

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          The bottom line is that this was an imcompetent statement by the NWS! Outrageous!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is an outrageous map. Incompetent for them to post a map that shows Lower MI getting heavy snow for next week. Totally ridiculous and inaccurate information!

      1. Hardy Tom says:

        Rocky, how do you really feel about NOAA ?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          They are a farce and waste a lot of the tax payer money, especially when posting totally inaccurate information.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Cool your jets. Life is more complicated than this. Consider the following…

          If the National Weather Service’s very accurate prediction of Sandy four days in advance — and the NWS’s coordination with emergency managers — ended up preventing just 2%-5% of the $20-50 billion total damages which Sandy wrought, then the NWS has already paid for itself this year.

          http://theweatherguru.com/2012/11/national-weather-service-pays-for-itself-again/

          “A nationwide study indicates that the U.S. public obtains several hundred billion forecasts each year, generating $31.5 billion in benefits compared to costs of $5.1 billion.”
          http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2604.1
          (If you do not have free access to this article, please let me know.)

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Now that is some good information. Thanks

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        They are still horrible at predicting snow storms however!

        1. Kimoeagle says:

          As they say in Lower Slobbbvia: Phbbbbbt!

  6. Mike in Hamilton says:

    i knew it would get the juices flowing for a few people :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Great post Mike. I always appreciate seeing totally ridiculous statements from the National Weather Service. What a farce.

  7. Kimoeagle says:

    That’s a nasty front coming NW out of Kansas right now. Looks like it’s riding the jet stream!

    1. Kimoeagle says:

      Ah. I just read this (NWS advisory), which fits with my previous revelation: The NWS Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk area for severe weather to include areas from Texas to Minnesota. While the primary risk remains from strong winds and hail, there is a possibility of a few tornadoes in the Central Plains.

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