Cool and Dry Week

November 11th, 2012 at 3:30 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  11:10 AM.  There’s still a few flakes on radar, so we’ll leave the radar up top of the blog…nothing left but trace amounts.  Here’s the satellite loop (Visible – daytime).  You can see the lake-effect clouds overhead.  If Lake Michigan were not there, we’d be clear now.  We’ll eventually become partly cloudy and then mostly clear as temperatures warm a bit aloft and the temperature difference from water to air is minimized, and the wind will eventually turn light to the south-southeast tonight, so it won’t be coming off the lake.  It’ll be a cool day with temperatures stuck in the 30s.  The last day when we didn’t reach 40 was March 30th.   A couple of spots in E. Muskegon and Newaygo Co. reported about an inch of snow on the grass overnight.  The overall airmass will be dry and other factors just don’t line up for a heavier lake-effect event that we might otherwise see when air this cold comes across Lake Michigan in mid-late November.   Much of the rest of the coming week will be cool, dry and rather tranquil.

Hope you enjoyed the relatively warm weekend.  ‘The high temperature of 71 in G.R. on Sunday was 21 degrees warmer than average, but still not up to the record high of  73 for 11/11.  Despite the warm weekend, the average temperature for Nov. 2012 is still 1.6 degrees cooler than average.  Our 57-degree reading at 12:01 AM this morning will be seven degrees above average for today (11/12), so today will look like a warm day in the climate record.   Here’s the GRR NWS discussionGale Warnings remain up for Lake Michigan thru  Tuesday morning.  I got a quick peak at the overnight European model data.  It takes the 850 mb temperature to -12.2C Tuesday AM – that’s cold, and will provide quite the contrast with the relatively warm Lake Michigan waters (near 50).   The average wind speed on Sunday was 17.8 mph in G.R., making Sunday the overall windiest day since 4/16.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map.

 

184 Responses to “Cool and Dry Week”

  1. INDY says:

    Katie in Kentwood is ready!!! INDYY….

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      I guess so :D

  2. kevin. w says:

    much colder for a day….. much warmer for weeks…but I see a little bit of a change after thanksgiving if the models hold there pattern. Hopefully it won’t be just a hick up but a couple models are starting to show a possible pattern toward maybe some winter like weather right around the first week of December. Will see.

  3. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Visibilty now down to 3-4 miles here it’s getting worse and the back roads are beginning to get slippery hard to believe I’m saying that already I’m thinking were in for a hard winter :D we didn’t even have our first inch of snow until Like The end of December last year

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’m guessing you meant 3/4 of a mile. 3-4 miles visibility would not really be snowing at all. My deck is now white.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Yeah that’s what I meant sorry about that!

  4. Barry in Zeeland says:

    So is this winter storm Brutus? Can’t believe they don’t have winter warnings out already. Everyone should be happy now. We’ve had snow, and now it’s right back to the 50′s in a couple days. No more complaining from anyone!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Not enough snow but I am happy we have had our first snow of the season and it is about a month and 1/2 quicker than it was last year so I think were in for a good winter this year with lots and lots of snow :)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Don’t count on it!

    3. Todd in Holland says:

      See all the snow we got last night??? we’ll be snowmobiling in no time!!!

  5. INDY says:

    It’s great to see read and lead thee winter bloggers back on Bill’s blogg again get ready for 120 inches of snow with wind this winter!! Lots of sprites and cool nights thee blogg will be right …..INDYY….

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The RDB model shows 100 inches of snow for GR this winter, however 120 inches would be much better. Bring it on!!!!

      1. Bruiseviolet (Cedar Springs) says:

        120+ sounds good =)

    2. Todd in Holland says:

      It’s great to see read and lead THE winter bloggers back on Bill’s BLOG again get ready for 120 inches of snow with wind this winter!! Lots of ??? and cool nights THE BLOG will be right …..….
      you are my hero at spelling.
      and we won’t get any snow this winter.. its gonna be just like last.. nice 90 degree february days

      1. Rumrunner says:

        He and all of his personalities spell the same way. It’s enough to give you a headache trying to read it.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha…aw, INDY…I have always wondered what INDY’s age is..

  6. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Had our first measurable snow of the season 1.2″ now I can start the adding of accumulations through out the winter :) winter you have been missed!

  7. ~Sherry~ Comstock Park says:

    Whoo hoo, love the snow!!

  8. Switchy says:

    Here comes thee old man, the old man winter.!!! ” Watchin Slednecks 15″ and sipping an old fashion. First snow in the North Dorr area. The snow machines are ready .

    Trackin live
    Theee Switchy

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      ….and just like that, he goes back to sleep for a few more weeks…..yawn

  9. Nathan says:

    Hey INDY are you ready?????

  10. Nathan says:

    Bill, i do understand that your winter forecast is not up yet, and take your time! But just out of curiosity, do you think this winter will be snowy and cold or warm and dry?

  11. INDY says:

    Thee great Derrel Nathan whats up!!! U READY FOR WINTER!!! BILL IT;S SNOWING OUTSIDE!!!!! INDYY….

    1. Bruiseviolet (Cedar Springs) says:

      HAHAHAHAHAHA You actually know who “The Great Darryl Nathan” is?

      1. INDY says:

        yes i do…………INDYUY..

  12. Mr. Negative says:

    Snow staying around on the deck -

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Yup – that’s what my deck looked like, too! Maybe 1/4″ of snow – sort of startled my youngest dog as he walked out….LOL!

  13. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

    Can anyone tell me what lake-effect snow is and why it is called that? I’m age 61 and when I was a child, it was called simply…..snow! ;)

    1. Jack says:

      Try This Marti B. Lake-effect snow | Define Lake-effect snow at – Dictionary.com …
      dictionary.reference.com/browse/lake-effect+snow
      Main Entry: lake-effect snow. Part of Speech: n. Definition: a phenomenon created when cold dry air passes over a large warmer lake, such as one of the Great …

      1. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

        Thanks Jack. Bill answered me as well….. :)

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      All it is when cold air (Alberta clippers) come across the warm waters of the lakes and then it snows but the snow showers lose their moister once they get inland of 131 and that is why only the west and north side of the state gets lake effect :)

    3. Cort S. says:

      How to tell it’s Lake Effect Snow: Ask whether it would be snowing right now if Lake Michigan didn’t exist.

      If it’s snowing purely because of a low pressure system and Lake Michigan isn’t boosting the snow’s intensity (perhaps because winds might be coming from the east), then it’s called “synoptic snow” by us weather geeks.

      If it’s snowing because of a low pressure system, but Lake Michigan is helping to boost snow intensity, then this is lake enhanced snow. Technically tonight we are receiving lake enhanced snow: It did snow a little bit in Milwaukee, but Lake Michigan helped intensify the snow showers as they moved over Michigan.

      If it wouldn’t be snowing unless Lake Michigan was there, then it’s lake effect snow. Under the right atmospheric conditions, water evaporating from Lake Michigan can supply the atmosphere with moisture, and the warmer water temperatures can help the air rise and create clouds and snow.

      Here is a great picture of lake-effect clouds:
      http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/0/989/seawifs_lake_effect_lrg.jpg
      The white-ish gray colors in Wisconsin and Canada are actually snow that is on the ground, but the bright white streaks that are coming off the lakes are lake-effect clouds.

      1. Jack says:

        Thanks Cort !! Your Posts are ALWAYS ,Informative and Infused, With Weather Geekness, Love It ! Great image of Lake Effect CLOUDS… It really Shows, How much Your LOVE Weather Overflows…Peace Mr GUARDIAN ANGEL….

        1. Bruiseviolet (Cedar Springs) says:

          Completely agree- I have never seen that photo before- or a photo like that- how cool!

      2. Vicki (Holland) says:

        I wish this blog had a “like” button! Great explanation and photo Cort!

      3. GunLakeDeb says:

        Holy COW!! That’s some serious Lake Effect!!!!!

        The Lake Effect clouds I usually see (if I’m lucky enough to NOT be under them!) is just a big wall of white on the western horizon.

      4. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

        Thank you as well Cort. Bill did answer me in an email. :)

  14. Nick (Grand Haven) says:

    So anyone the slightest guess on when we will get real snow? I have family in California going snowboarding…….. and we are just getting our first flurry!

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      That was real snow….at least I don’t think anyone was throwing confetti around.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It’s looking pretty boring the next couple weeks. Unfortunately, it is not looking like snow for Thanksgiving. Yet another boring November…

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      As Barry said – that was real snow. But it’s not going to “stick” until the ground freezes; and that could take some time yet.

  15. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    The ground here is more white than not. Maybe a 1/4 to 1/2 inch. 29.1° now.

  16. Vicki (Holland) says:

    When I opened my blinds this morning I saw white lines on the roofs of the houses around me, so I took a closer look and it’s snow! Wow the weather sure did change fast from wearing t-shirts to winter coats!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      How did you take a closer look? It would be quite funny driving down my street and seeing the neighbor lady climbing around on her roof examining little lines of white! :P

      1. Vicki (Holland) says:

        Haha you’re funny Matt. I have a one and a half story so I can see part of the roof from the upstairs bedroom window. :D

  17. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    32° here with some snow on roofs of cars and houses not much on the ground. I will record this as the first snow fall of the winter of 2012/13.
    SlimJim

  18. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Light dusting here. Very minimal compared to the inch or so we received a few weeks back.

    Looks very quiet. GFS does show first possible major snow event at the end of November, but it’s way too far out right now.

    Until then, mild with below average precip.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I agree this is way too far out. There is a .00001% chance of seeing a snow storm during this time frame. By the time we get to this time frame we will probably still be seeing above average temperatures just like we have been seeing for about a year now! Bring on a REAL WINTER – COLD and SNOW Rocks!

    1. Jack says:

      There’s a Waste of Time and Money !!

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          That reminds me of the big controversy on Saturday Night Live. A few narrow-minded leftists screamed because a “white” actor was playing the black President. The actor, Fred Armisen, was actually half white and half Asian. Of course, the President is half black and half white. http://globalgrind.com/news/jay-pharoah-play-barack-obama-snl-video

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Why would you characterize them as leftists? Why would you even bring this up??

          Is this weather?

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Because of brad’s pic.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          While you’ve got a minute, read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/business/in-michigan-a-setback-for-unions.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

          The New York Times calls the overwhelming landslide against Proposal 2 “an embarrassing loss” for the unions. Dale Belman, a professor of labor relations at Michigan State University, said that voters were uneasy with a proposal that would do so much, from barring right-to-work legislation to superseding state laws that barred communities from negotiating with public employee unions about specific issues.

          “It was broad and ambiguous and not sufficiently well-defined,” he said. “With this loss, now there is some concern whether unions have proved their weakness.”

          Proposal 2 garnered 600,000 fewer votes than President Obama in Michigan, indicating that many Democrats turned against labor on this issue.

        5. Brad says:

          Bill, why are you obsessed with reducing the wages of the common man?

        6. Brad says:

          For context, it’s weird reading the posts of a meteorologist making $200K per year railing against teachers’ salaries that are often not even a quarter of that.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          That’s not me! You guys are the ones doing that: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/household-income-is-below-recession-levels-report-says/2012/08/23/aa497460-ec80-11e1-a80b-9f898562d010_story.html

          200 Grand…WOW, I must have just gotten a BIG pay raise!! Actually, you’re probably confusing me with your son. It’s also somewhat unfair to compare my current salary with an AVERAGE teacher salary. I started working at WZZM for $175 a week working 6 days a week. You should take an average of my entire career if you want to compare it to an average teacher. Keep in mind I get no pension and no benefits when I retire, which is a huge advantage over the private sector.

        8. Brad says:

          When you compare wages and salaries to corporate profits and productivity, something ain’t right. Somebody is siphoning off the value our workers are creating.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re changing the subject. Why did so many Democrats vote against Proposal 2? 600,000+ voters chose President Obama and voted ‘NO’ on Proposals 2 thru 6. Why did so many UAW MEMBERS vote against Proposal 2?

        10. big Daddy BC says:

          Why are you obsessed with this? Corporations ran a great campaign. They spent nearly $40 billion to make sure labor didn’t get this protection. It’s just strange how often you bring this up considering the way it paints you.

          You’re just another old rich white guy who wants to make money off the middle class. Congrats on defeating your viewers.

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          The middle class OVERWHELMINGLY voted against proposal 2. Over 600,000 people who voted for Obama also voted “NO” on Proposal 2. The vast “middle class” had nothing to gain and possibly a lot to lose from Proposal 2. It was an overreach from a narrow special interest. Now rewrite this contract: http://protectingmichigantaxpayers.com/truth

        12. big Daddy BC says:

          It’s nice to know our democracy still works despite A.L.E.C.’s best efforts. They own the capital but not the people. We voted that vile racist EM law down, despite the efforts of people like Bill Steffen.

          http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/11/michigan_emergency_manager_law.html

          Only eight of eighty-three counties voted it up. Bill, your narrow view is in the tiny minority.

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          Racist? It’s interesting that those cities and school districts that HAVE Emergency Managers voted to keep them:

          “Berrien County, for example, contains Benton Harbor, which has been under emergency manager oversight since 2010. More than 63 percent of Berrien County voters voted for the stronger emergency manager law. This was the strongest showing of support from any county.

          Livingston County, which borders both Genesee and Oakland counties (where the cities of Flint and Pontiac are under emergency manger oversight), was the next-largest supporter of Prop 1. More than 62 percent of voters there supported it.

          Oakland County voters supported Prop 1 at a rate of 57.7 percent. The county contains the city of Pontiac and borders Wayne County, where the Detroit school district has been under emergency manager oversight since 2009.

          http://articles.wsbt.com/2011-04-28/benton-harbor_29485035

          The Muskegon Heights School Board ASKED for an Emergency Manager: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/16/muskegon-heights-school-district-emergency-manager_n_1349748.html

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      When you have a hurricane hit within two hours of a full moon (highest tide), it’s going to flood barrier islands (I’ve always questioned building down to the water’s edge on the barrier islands (Marco, Sanibel, the Outer Banks, Padre). These islands get flooded and change shape in storms. Sea level was low in the 1970s, the coldest decade in the last 120+ years in the Northern Hemisphere. Sea level rose as the ice melted back (at least partly due to the warm phase of the AMO). As you can see in this graph, sea level has actually dropped a little in the last decade: http://i51.tinypic.com/2u9og1z.jpg

  19. INDY says:

    Old is thee word I have kids so I am not that young Matt I just drink a lot of sprites and no how to stay all night and have fun on Bill’s Blogg Bill’s Blogg needs INDY he told me so !!!!! Yes I know the great Darral Nathan He is a trip…Hey rumrunner your name makes my head hurt!! INDYY….

  20. INDY says:

    Old is thee word I have kids so I am not that young Matt I just drink a lot of sprites and now how to stay all night and have fun on Bill’s Blogg Bill’s blogg needs INDY he told me so !!!!!!!!!!!!!!Yes I know thee great Darrey Nathan He’s a trip reminds me of fizzer a little …Hey romrunner your name makes my head hurt ….INDYY….

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK ON INDY! Bring on the SNOW, COLD and more SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

      1. INDY says:

        Like it jack is that u in the pic??? INDYY….

        1. Jack says:

          Naaaw…. I’m OLD just Like You…..Indyyyyyyyyy…. ;-)

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          I suspect Jack and INDY are the same person.

  21. INDY says:

    Randy Rockford 120 inches coming!!!! BRING IT ONNNNNN INDYY…..

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rocky not Randy :)

      1. Jack says:

        RANDY ON !!!!!!! Lol. ;-)

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Rockin Rocky from Rockford ready to ROCK n ROLL!!!

  22. Switchy says:

    Switchy is calling for a snow event around Thanksgiving. Get the snow blower ready and locked in.

    Trackin live in thee North Dorr

    Switchy

  23. Scott (west olive) says:

    23 deg at the lake. Brrrr.

  24. ChipByrd says:

    Did Bill ever give his winter prediction? I didn’t see it.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I haven’t done an official forecast yet.

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