Dry Pattern ContinuesNovember 15th, 2012 at 4:26 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click the pic. to enlarge. It’s the start of firearm deer season. No tracking snow here. Wednesday morning, there was an inch of snow on the ground at Gaylord, but most of that melted during the day. There’s a couple spots reporting snow on the ground in the U.P. Watton had 2″ on the ground Weds. evening and check out the live cam up at Twin Lakes. There’s actually a lot of snow on the ground already in Canada and in Russia. The Long Term discussion from Bill Marino is interesting this AM. He says: “THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT SPLIT IN THE JET STREAM (FOR NOVEMBER). IN A TYPICAL NOVEMBER THIS AREA CAN EXPECT ABOUT 13 DAYS WITH AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE PAST 30 YEARS WE HAVE BEEN BELOW 10 DAYS ONLY TWICE, 1998 AND 1999 WITH 7 AND 6 RESPECTIVELY. SO FAR THIS MONTH GRR HAS HAD 2 DAYS WITH 0.01 OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODELS I CAN SEE US GETTING THROUGH THE 25TH WITH NOT MORE THAN 3 DAYS. THE REASON FOR THE SPLIT IS A BLOCKING YET VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN… JUST NORTH OF EASTERN RUSSIA… AROUND 165E AND 73N. THIS BLOCKING HIGH DOES SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE BERING SEA BY THANKSGIVING AND THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME I BELIEVE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST CROSS POLAR FLOW STARTING TO DEVELOP.“ If that cross polar flow develops we’ll get a nice dump of cold air down into at least northern Canada. No guarantees that it’ll get here, but there are other indications of a colder and snowier pattern setting up by Dec. 6. Here’s the latest Korean model forecast for December, showing a fairly cold trough in the Eastern U.S. for late December.
Check out the snow on the ground in the U.P. at Twin Lakes, current conditions in Michigan and a satellite loop showing the high clouds moving thru Michigan. The GFS has a significant cold shot hitting us around the 29th/30th. Keep in mind it’s the GFS and that model often does overdue cold shots in the long term in fall, but it’s something we’ll continue to track. It’s certainly cold enough for any snow to stick then, and with NW flow behind a cold front, the area south of Holland and from Oceana Co. north would be most likely to see more significant lake-effect snow. Cold air is building in Canada…the question is, when and if that cold air is forced south into the U.S. In the meantime, we’ll be mild and dry through Thanksgiving Day. We may see a brief light shower about next Tuesday, but that’s a 50/50 chance at best. Note: Approximately 85% of Canada has a snow cover now, compared to about 65% at this time last year.