Dry Pattern Continues

November 15th, 2012 at 4:26 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Click the pic. to enlarge.  It’s the start of firearm deer season.  No tracking snow here.  Wednesday morning, there was an inch of snow on the ground at Gaylord, but most of that melted during the day.  There’s a couple spots reporting snow on the ground in the U.P.  Watton had 2″ on the ground Weds. evening and check out the live cam up at Twin Lakes.  There’s actually a lot of snow on the ground already in Canada and in Russia.   The Long Term discussion from Bill Marino is interesting this AM.  He says:  “THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT SPLIT IN THE JET STREAM (FOR NOVEMBER). IN A TYPICAL NOVEMBER THIS AREA CAN EXPECT ABOUT 13 DAYS WITH AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE PAST 30 YEARS WE HAVE BEEN BELOW 10 DAYS ONLY TWICE, 1998 AND 1999 WITH 7 AND 6 RESPECTIVELY. SO FAR THIS MONTH GRR HAS HAD 2 DAYS WITH 0.01 OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODELS I CAN SEE US GETTING THROUGH THE 25TH WITH NOT MORE THAN 3 DAYS.  THE REASON FOR THE SPLIT IS A BLOCKING YET VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN… JUST NORTH OF EASTERN RUSSIA… AROUND 165E AND 73N. THIS BLOCKING HIGH DOES SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE BERING SEA BY THANKSGIVING AND THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME I BELIEVE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST CROSS POLAR FLOW STARTING TO DEVELOP.“   If that cross polar flow develops we’ll get a nice dump of cold air down into at least northern Canada.  No guarantees that it’ll get here, but there are other indications of a colder and snowier pattern setting up by Dec. 6.   Here’s the latest Korean model forecast for December, showing a fairly cold trough in the Eastern U.S. for late December.

Check out the snow on the ground in the U.P. at Twin Lakes, current conditions in Michigan and a satellite loop showing the high clouds moving thru Michigan.  The GFS has a significant cold shot hitting us around the 29th/30th.  Keep in mind it’s the GFS and that model often does overdue cold shots in the long term in fall, but it’s something we’ll continue to track.  It’s certainly cold enough for any snow to stick then, and with NW flow behind a cold front, the area south of Holland and from Oceana Co. north would be most likely to see more significant lake-effect snow.  Cold air is building in Canada…the question is, when and if that cold air is forced south into the U.S.  In the meantime, we’ll be mild and dry through Thanksgiving Day.  We may see a brief light shower about next Tuesday, but that’s a 50/50 chance at best.  Note:  Approximately 85% of Canada has a snow cover now, compared to about 65% at this time last year.

101 Responses to “Dry Pattern Continues”

  1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Here come the 50′s for at least a week. Going to be a warm Thanksgiving.

  2. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Who knew that the Korean model was the new stalwart of dependability? Sounds a little like grasping at anything that may indicate snow. Meanwhile, yes it looks like an AWESOME week coming up for all the no snow lovers!

  3. Brad says:

    When the weather gets cold,
    WOOD’s weatherman gets bold.
    While he fears binding pacts,
    We ask that he forecast the facts!

    http://www.forecastthefacts.org/

    1. Jack says:

      Brad = Al Gore…..Wanna Be !!

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      You want a fact? The earth hasn’t been warming for 15 years. Dig it.

      1. Brad says:

        The earth has been warming…faster than Joe Bastardi’s leotard as you spot him.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          GISS: http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          HadCRUT: http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/trend-24.png

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. ‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz2CLtlzzjd
          Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

          http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2220722/Global-warming-The-Mail-Sunday-answers-world-warming-not.html

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Your link deals only with the Lower 48 states…globally it’s a different story:

          GLOBAL temperature Jan. 1 thru Nov. 15 (NASA IR data) is 0.043 degrees warmer than average. That’s 43/thousands of a degree or approx. 4/100 degree warmer than average…or essentially average. Nortb American and the Arctic have been significantly warmer than average. Most of the rest of the world has been slightly cooler than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

          Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          No warming last 10 years:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          You cut and paste yourself like it’s going out of style. LOL

          I guess NOAA and NASA’s lying then, huh? LOL

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

          http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2012/the-making-of-the-hottest-year-on-record-usa-temperature-update

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          GLOBALLY, the average temperature for 2012 is 0.043 degree warmer than average (essentially average).

          Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          No warming last 10 years:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          You cut and paste like it’s going out of style. LOL

          I guess NOAA and NASA’s must be lying then, huh? LOL

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

          http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2012/the-making-of-the-hottest-year-on-record-usa-temperature-update

  4. Mark (Okemos) says:

    May I ask where exactly that photo was taken??

  5. Chrispy says:

    CPC One Month and Three Month seem to agree somewhat with the cold coming down. I hope they’re right – I like cold and snowy winters.

    30 Day:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif

    Three Month:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

    We shall see…

    1. Brad says:

      That can’t be- Bill posted that NOAA never predicts below-average temperatures in their three-month forecasts in an attempt to brainwash people about global warming!

      1. Chrispy says:

        Actually Brad, I made the same comment a few weeks ago, and if you would go back for the last couple of years I believe a majority, if not all of their predictions have been slanted that way. Not sure why that’s been the case because those predictions have not proven all that accurate.

        I wish you wouldn’t slam on Bill’s perspective. There is a lot of good science supporting his point of view, and a lot of hype and media interference feeding the opposite extreme. I’m not here to argue though, just thankful Bill runs this blog so I can learn more about our weather and hear about people’s reactions to it.

        1. Brad says:

          Bill can handle the heat, Chrispy!

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The CPC forecast maps (here: http://www.navygentleman.com/political/?p=15485#top) beyond 4.5 months do not have any of the Lower 48 states as cooler than average. The odds that we do not have any of the Lower 48 States below average for 7 consecutive months are extremely small.

        3. Cort S. says:

          Let’s get one thing straight before we accuse the CPC of scaremongering.

          EVERYONE here misinterpreting the CPC’s maps. They are probabilistic outlooks. They are not deterministic. All “above normal” shaded areas beyond 4.5 months are actually saying there is 33%, and your probabilities for below-normal are somewhat <33%.

        4. Cort S. says:

          (Disregard the above paragraph. The blog butchered it and cut off the rest of my post for some reason. Weird.)

          EVERYONE here misinterpreting the CPC’s maps. They are probabilistic outlooks. They are not deterministic. All “above normal” shaded areas beyond 4.5 months are actually saying there is 33%, and your probabilities for below-normal are somewhat <33%.

        5. Cort S. says:

          (Disregard the above two posts. The blog software is probably thinking my less-than/greater-than symbols are HTML tags. Let me change it to plain language…)

          EVERYONE here misinterpreting the CPC’s maps. They are probabilistic outlooks. They are not deterministic. All “above normal” shaded areas beyond 4.5 months are actually saying there is less than 60% chance of above normal temperatures. I don’t see a single contour that is 60% or greater. None of these above-normal temperature areas are for certain, and they even only border on “likely.” They are rather simply “more probable.” On the opposite end, these maps are not making the deterministic prediction that there will be not be any below-normal temperatures. That’s a misinterpretation.

          “EC” means “equal chances” of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures. Roughly 33% chances for each category. It does not mean “near normal.”

          If you were to look at these maps and conclude that NOAA is going all-out global warming with these charts, be advised that the steps you used to reach this conclusion are mathematically flawed. On the other side of the coin, if you did want to go to Congress and use these charts alone to scare them into believing in global warming, you would also be guilty of being mathematically illogical.

          I’m beginning to think that these maps should not be available for public consumption…

          I know that using probabilities to forecast the distant future seems about as nebulous as a crystal ball, and that using probabilities seems like a cop-out so that you can claim that your outlooks are never wrong. The accuracy of these charts need to be verified with the same statistical methods that were used to create them, over a period of many forecast cycles. It would also be wrong for a forecaster to point to his 50-60% chance of above-normal temperatures in Arizona July-Aug-Sept 2013, then point to the above-normal temperatures that actually occurred there during that period, and claim that his forecast was definitively correct.

          Long-range forecasting is all about picking out the signal among the noise. If the signal is buried beneath the noise, you label your chart with “EC.” If the lower 48 states have lately had more 3-month periods with above-normal temperatures (compared to the 30-yr avg) than they have had periods with below-normal temperatures, then persistence forecasting techniques alone would suggest your probabilities for above-normal in the future are somewhat greater than 33%, and your probabilities for below-normal are somewhat less than 33%.

  6. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    There are no deer in my woods here. Only heard 20 shots in 3 hours. EHD has hit very hard in my area. Other than that it is a nice morning. I am thinking GR will have a snowfall total of 58 inches this winter.

  7. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    This was kind of interesting regarding a new long range model.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/an-exciting-new-tool-for-seasonal-forecasting/1557047

    1. Joe says:

      I like the February/March prediction in those models, but we shall see….

  8. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z GFS again showing a pretty good shot of cold air and some snow possible by the end of the month. The GFS is notorious for showing pattern changes in the long term that often don’t occur. If it sticks with the cold idea for a few days, then there may be some validity to that happening.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Euro has been on board with the idea for a couple of days now.

  9. Jacob G says:

    So starting to look more and more likely the bottom could drop out towards late November early December. If we can get that cross polar flow with a Greenland block and PNA+ then we could be in for a huge lake effect out break in early December. Not sure if a Dallas to Detroit Low will spin up in there and bring us one more bout of rain or not. Time will tell how it will shake out but the pattern is starting to show up for a significant turn around into winter here. Like Jim S. mentioned a while back not to get too comfortable with a warm and dry November as it usually can snap back in a hurry. Just my two cents and not wish casting here.

  10. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    The interesting thing about this prolonged dry, sunny pattern we are entrenched in is the fact that temperatures continue to run below normal, at times significantly. While the sunshine and light winds make it fell pretty comfortable for mid-November, our overnight lows (especially in outlying areas and to the north of GR; I had a low of 19 yesterday AM) have been running well below the typical lows. Moreover, the high temperatures may “feel” warm but have still been rather consistently below the average high of 48-50 in the week or so. And besides the two day spike this past weekend into the 60′s and 70′s, the rest of the month has been significantly colder than average. That said, at the end of the day, we have just 0.1 inches of snow in GR and it looks like a good 2 weeks before we get any more decent snow.

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Because clouds keep in the heat. GR has seen 8 days around average or a little below and 4 days significantly warmer than average.

      But that’s all about to change considering GR’s average high is 47 tomorrow and 43-46 next week, and yet I see nothing but 50′s on tap. Heck, next week looks even warmer than it was last year!

  11. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Other interesting tidbits:

    -El Nino has officially been declared no more. Looks like a neutral winter.

    -October 2012 was the 5th warmest October ever recorded globally

    -Arctic sea ice in October saw its 2nd lowest extent ever (only behind 2007)

  12. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Looks like after Thanksgiving things change finally for Michigan after this year long of boring crap weather sunny and dry! I am soooooooo ready for COLD AND SNOW BRING IT ON! :)

  13. Hugh says:

    What a beautiful day to be alive! Sunshine and deer in the back yard (no shooting here) Love the sunshine – in winter we get little of it :) Thank you GOD!

    1. Jack says:

      AMEN !!!!! Hugh !!!! :-)

  14. Mr. Negative says:

    This years nearly perfect winter, and wonderfully warm, dry summer was a once in a generation event. Most of us are old enough to know better than to waste time hoping for a repeat.

  15. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Accuweather is showing highs only in the 20′s the week after Thanksgiving yup looks like were in for a big change!

  16. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    As for all the talk of a pattern change and the long range showing colder weather. We heard the exact same speculation all last winter. How did that turn out? Also we now have a weather computer model that analyzes all of the other weather models. Ridiculous concept and a total wast of money. The amount of time, energy and money that is wasted on inaccurate long range weather models is mind boggling to me.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Think deeper. Think the next step for humankind. This is a young science, but that’s not necessarily the same as junk science. In the 1800s, “waste of time” might have been the same conclusion you would make regarding predicting the next day’s weather!

      You can imagine a lot of big industries that would pay good money for some idea of how the “weather dice” are expected to be weighted during the upcoming season. While these industries understand that no seasonal forecast will be correct every single season, they would prefer to have forecasts that offer more success over a period of many years than just taking random guesses or simply going with the average. This might not be as impossible as you may think. This is getting into a different niche of forecasting, one that is a little different than predicting the next day’s weather. Instead of looking at small-scale disturbances in the jet stream that can affect the weather from day to day, this is dealing more with predicting the global large-scale pattern that the jet stream may be attracted toward having, on the average, during the season. This is a niche of forecasting that is harder for the average Joe to understand, because it heavily involves statistics and probability.

      Making long-range predictions is like expressing the probabilities associated with a weighted pair of dice, except you have to make an educated guess where the weights are and how heavy they are (by looking at things like ENSO, NAO, AO, etc. and their resulting atmospheric teleconnections). Long range forecasts like the CPC’s are expressed probabilistically, while some long ranges like Bill’s seasonal forecasts are expressed deterministically, where you make a definitive prediction and you are either 100% right or 100% wrong. Our forecast skill in the long range is judged over the course of many seasons and predictions. The trick to judging our skill at long range forecasts is to identify how good we are at finding the “signal” (dice weights / teleconnections) among the “noise” (inherent randomness of the dice / chaotic atmosphere).

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        While that may all be true, long range forecasting is futile as evidenced by last years debacle. Now you are judging long range in terms of years? I have heard everything now. Most experts can not even forecast a few days out with much accuracy! All of the signs that you mention above showed that we would get hammered last winter and we had one of the worst winters (worst as in only 50 inches of snow) on record. I do agree with your statement about rolling the dice. Long range forecasting is like playing craps. It is a crap shoot!

        1. Cort S. says:

          I don’t think you understood what I said.

          First…

          You gauge how tomorrow’s forecast performed by looking back on it the day after it happened. You don’t just look at one forecast’s performance and declare the entirety of meteorology to be a waste of time, energy, and money if that one forecast doesn’t go well. You have to look at the performance of each new 1-day forecast from day to day to day to day, and see if they all iron out to be, on average, more successful than simply guessing. Likewise, you can’t declare seasonal forecasting to be a sham just because last season’s forecast did not go well. As I said, you have to look at the winter forecasts year after year after year, and hopefully together they show more success on average than either guessing randomly or going with the climatological normals.

          Second…

          “Most experts can not even forecast a few days out with much accuracy!” I say to that: “This is getting into a different niche of forecasting, one that is a little different than predicting the next day’s weather.” We’re not trying to predict the high and low temperature and chance of precipitation for each given date in the upcoming winter. We’re doing something different: predicting if the entire season on average will end up being warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than a “normal” winter. This can be done without knowing what the exact temperatures and precipitation chances will be on every individual day during the season. You should read up on how teleconnections work:
          http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtml

          For example, El Niño is an oceanic temperature anomaly that feeds back on the atmosphere’s temperatures and thus changes the average position and strength of the jet stream during the course of a season. For the sake of argument, let’s say we know that a very strong El Niño is happening this winter, and we know from both past experience and physics-equation-based computer models that this means the jet stream’s position over the Pacific Ocean will change. That position over the Pacific will have downstream effects on the jet stream’s likely position over the United States (that’s a teleconnection). Let’s say most previous strong El Niños have provided Michigan with mild winters, but a few of them didn’t due to other oscillations elsewhere, and their teleconnections, overwhelming El Niño’s teleconnections. It would therefore make sense to say that Michigan’s winter temperatures would likely be warmer than normal, even if we have no idea what the particular temperatures will be on any given day during the winter.

          Is every forecast of a mild winter during a strong El Niño going to be correct? No. Is it better than throwing darts at a dartboard or saying it’ll just be average? Probably, and that’s what seasonal forecasts are trying to utilize. If a strong El Niño has relatively predictable effects on Michigan’s weather in a majority of instances, then it is said be a strong “signal.” Long range forecasts are trying to find the signal that will have the primary influence on Michigan’s weather for the upcoming season. Lots of times the signal is weak or we don’t understand it very well, and it’s buried beneath the “noise” of a chaotic atmosphere.

          Some seasonal forecasts have more confidence than others. During a strong El Niño, we might have more confidence that our winter forecast for Michigan will end up being correct. During a neutral ENSO, we know that it could easily go either way. So we would have lower confidence in that winter’s forecast. This gets us into expressing our winter forecast in terms of probability (a probabilistic forecast), and communicating the degree of our uncertainty in that forecast. That’s just another layer of complexity that I have talked about before, but I won’t tonight. This is all why seasonal forecasting is so hard for an average Joe or even a scientist to understand, and why the modern era of seasonal forecasting science is only in its infancy.

  17. I agree with Rocky. And where is the winter outlook from Bill and the rest of the weather stations.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Your link is just for adjusted Lower 48 temperatures. GLOBAL temperature Jan. 1 thru Nov. 15 (NASA IR data) is 0.043 degrees warmer than average. That’s 43/thousands of a degree or approx. 4/100 degree warmer than average…or essentially average. Nortb American and the Arctic have been significantly warmer than average. Most of the rest of the world has been slightly cooler than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

        Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        No warming last 10 years:

        http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

        No warming last 10 years:

        http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

        No warming last 10 years:

        Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

        Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        GLOBALLY (not just the Lower 48 states), the average temperature for 2012 is 0.043 degree warmer than average…just 4 hundredths of a degree…essentially average. The central U.S. has been warm, the globe has been average.

        http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

        Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        No warming last 10 years:

        http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

        No warming last 10 years:

        http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

        No warming last 10 years:

        Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

        Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          NOAA has us here:

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201201-201210.gif

          And consider that this map is using the global warming adjusted average! You’re hyperbole is sickening.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          This is actual raw data…showing global temperature at average for 2012: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png No need to “adjust” it to make it look warmer just to promote a political cause or to get grant money.

  18. kevin. w says:

    The new navy and high res euro have a strong arctic high with bitter cold air coming down the first week of December with a strong low coming off the Pacific, how these interact is yet to be seen. But some of the models are hinting at a big pattern change but how this whole thing unfolds is why we all like to watch what comes next in weather. Right now and the past year, BORING!!!! :)

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    There are absolutely no signs of winter or snow or a pattern change in the short or mid range models and all long range models are inaccurate, so those of you that want to see a real winter, you may need to wait a long time!

    1. Jack says:

      Yo Rockin Rocky and All Others, It’s Time To Share This GRIN. :-) . http://www.brucesussman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/weather-cartoon1.jpg

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Too funny, however very appropriate for this blog!

    2. kevin. w says:

      last winter….joke past spring….joke this summer…joke this fall… joke so far and looking forward…probably a joke. I guess the joke is on all of us with this crummy weather pattern. :(

  20. Jack says:

    Off Subject : Miguel Cabrera , A.L. MVP !!!!!! Sweeeeeeeeet …. ;-)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No doubt he is the best player and hitter in not only the American league but in the world!

  21. INDY says:

    Just got of the phone with uncle sparks 3 bucks not a bad start!!! INDYY…

  22. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I’m telling you all it will be a repeat of last winter many of you snow lovers will be fooled again this winter in fact looking at some long range forecast their pointing out towards an above average temp winter with below normal snow hmmmm doesn’t that sound familiar oh yep last winter! haha don’t be fooled you all know it’s going to be another winter like last so don’t get your hopes up!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Agreed and well said. All current signs point towards above average temps and below average snowfall. It could be another monumental bust of a winter!

      1. Cort S. says:

        “All current signs point towards above average temps and below average snowfall.”

        Hey now, there’s a long range forecast if ever I did see one! How did you arrive at this conclusion? Help me understand how November’s weather has a significant bearing on the upcoming winter pattern. Por favor.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          No Cort you are 100% wrong. I am basing my comments on the current pattern not some long range mumbo jumbo computer model hype! We are currently in an above normal temp and below normal precip pattern. This is 100% indisputable because it is happening as we speak!!!!!!!!!!

        2. Cort S. says:

          I understand. But you have yet to explain how the current pattern (a mild and dry November) is going to remain that way throughout the entire winter. I can’t see a basis for why that would be true. That’s a big assumption to make (especially coming off a cold October)… the assumption that weather patterns don’t change.

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          When the pattern actually does change then I will change my tune, until then I see no reason to get exited about above average snowfall for this winter. It is all hype and guess work! We will probably have a couple cold weeks with very little snow and then we will head right back to above average temperatures and below average snowfall.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Do you have multiple personalities? One day you are proclaiming we are going to get “120 inches of snow this winter” and then the next you talk about how winter is not coming. Confusing….

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          I am hoping for 120 inches of snow, however we will probably have another bust!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      You do nothing but rain on everyone’s parade around here. Always so negative. What’s the deal?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        What gives is long range forecasts are very inaccurate and I am trying to bring some reality to this blog. I am hoping for a fantastic WINTER with above average SNOWFALL, however until the pattern actually changes I am not counting on much of a winter season.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Rocky, my comment was in response to debbie downers post, not yours. I’m with you, I want a good winter as well. I can’t see a repeat of last winter. But we will believe it when we se it. I say the 6-10, and 8-14 day outlooks give a pretty good picture of the what to expect. Long range models are just more for fun to talk about.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Might I also provide my perspective on reality, as a scientist? (And as a a part-time well-grounded level-headed dude?)

          Are long-range forecasts inaccurate? Yes! To an extent.

          Is long-range forecasting a ridiculous concept and a total waste of money? No! It’s in its infancy, just like how next-day weather forecasts and tornado warnings used to be in their infancy. If any type of forecasting is rooted in in the laws of physical science and statistical methods (and has an adequate observation network), it has a better chance of being accurate versus a forecasting method that is not rooted in these things. It also has the capability of being continually evaluated, developed, and improved.

          Are scientists communicating long-range forecasts effectively, including how we can gauge our degree of uncertainty in one season’s forecast versus another? Oftentimes NO!

          Because scientists are not communicating these things effectively, is the public correctly interpreting probabilistic long-range forecasts and their measurements of uncertainty? Oftentimes NO!

          Do we all have work to do to better educate & understand how life and the world around us works? YES!

  23. kevin. w says:

    we may not have a hard winter as some of you say, all it will take is one devastating blizzard or ice-storm like what sandy did to the northeast and that’s all she wrote. If we end up with a very mild winter and we end up with one big bad storm “of the century” this winter and it knocks down trees, power-lines, and disrupts commerce for several months…Then what will we all say.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I will say bring it on and keep the SNOW coming! I would love to see 150 or more inches of snow with at least 5 or 6 major snow storms! This would be great, I just do not think that it is going to happen!

  24. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    The ones who say were going to have a repeat is because they just assume that since we have had a warm year we’ll have another warm winter. That is not true at all because we have had really warm summers followed by a really harsh winter so I think that will be the pattern this year we can’t stay in this warm pattern all the time it just isn’t possible because we live in the northern hemisphere with colder and warmer weather (varying) so I think this will be a colder than average winter with an average to above average winter in snow!

  25. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    and Deb why did you come back to this blog because all you do now is snap at people your even worse than fixxer all he does is try’s to be negative but you actually insult people and it’s called “cyberbullying” !!!!

    1. Brad says:

      but Bill told us you are Deb?

        1. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

          Similar sentence structure i.e. no periods.

  26. Can anyone tell me why Bill has not given his winter outlook. And I have not seen the other stations predictions ether. Lets get er done.

    1. Cort S. says:

      I can help explain the winter outlook that the CPC put out:

      Temperature: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

      Precipitation: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

      Do not be fooled: The white “EC” area that Michigan is in does NOT mean that we will see near-normal temperatures and precipitation. It means we have equal chances (33% each) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures and precip. The long and short of it is… that’s the scientists’ way of saying “I don’t know.”

      If we had a stronger feature (I call it a “signal”) in our oceanic-atmospheric system that we knew would likely influence Michigan’s weather in a certain way, we would be able to assign greater probabilities to some particular outcome and diminish the probabilities of the other outcomes. For instance, if we had a strong El Niño this winter, we would be more confident in an above-normal-temperature winter, so we would boost the probabilities on the maps to show a 40, 50, or 60% chance of above-normal temperatures in Michigan. This would diminish the probabilities of a below-normal-temperature winter here, but those probabilities would still be non-zero.

      This year, it doesn’t appear that we have a strong signal this far in advance. We are close to ENSO-Neutral (neither an El Niño nor a La Niña), and all the other long-term oscillations in the ocean and atmosphere are combining to make the winter forecast highly uncertain.

      1. Jack says:

        WOW CORT !!!!!! I LOVE IT ! LIKE + TWO THUMBS UP !!!! Thanks Written ! Spoken, Like a True Wheather GEEK…. ;-) . Keep – Up The Great WORK…. Thanks AGAIN…. :-)

    2. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Maybe Bill’s not going to post a winter forecast. He seems to get a lot of grief from some on this blog if he’s off by one iota. So I wouldn’t blame him if he did not issue one.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        He’s a frickin’ weatherman. That’s what he’s supposed to do. He may not be very good at seasonal forecasts, but he should still try. He makes all kinds of claims about everything else under the sun and the one thing he gets paid for, he’s dodging. Typical.

        Here’s what NOAA says:
        http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2012/the-making-of-the-hottest-year-on-record-usa-temperature-update

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re link only talks about adjusted U.S. (and only the Lower 48 states) temperatures. GLOBAL temperature Jan. 1 thru Nov. 15 (NASA IR data) is 0.043 degrees warmer than average. That’s 43/thousands of a degree or approx. 4/100 degree warmer than average…or essentially average. Nortb American and the Arctic have been significantly warmer than average. Most of the rest of the world has been slightly cooler than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

          Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          No warming last 10 years:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The Lower 48 states represent only 1.58% of the Earth. GLOBALLY, 2012 has been an average year for temperatures (+0.043 degree).

          GLOBAL temperature Jan. 1 thru Nov. 15 (NASA IR data) is 0.043 degrees warmer than average. That’s 43/thousands of a degree or approx. 4/100 degree warmer than average…or essentially average. Nortb American and the Arctic have been significantly warmer than average. Most of the rest of the world has been slightly cooler than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

          Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          No warming last 10 years:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Here’s what NOAA has on 2012:

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201201-201210.gif

          I’m not sure why your blog friends have different numbers, but I think we’ll trust NOAA. And keep in mind that map is using the global warming adjusted average!

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Raw temperature data shows the Earth temperature has been almost exactly average for 2012: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

  27. MJ and Chuck Doezema says:

    Hello Bill Chuck aqnd I were wondering what the long range outlook for the winter months will be . Are we done with 70degrees or better for the year?
    Say HI to Julie!
    MJ and Chuck

  28. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Get ready for the snow I’m so excited

    here’s what accuweather explains I think they explain it very well

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/waves-of-cold-storms-after-tha/1635589

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        GLOBAL temperature Jan. 1 thru Nov. 15 (NASA IR data) is 0.043 degrees warmer than average. That’s 43/thousands of a degree or approx. 4/100 degree warmer than average…or essentially average. Nortb American and the Arctic have been significantly warmer than average. Most of the rest of the world has been slightly cooler than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

        Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        No warming last 10 years:

        http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

        No warming last 10 years:

        http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

        No warming last 10 years:

        Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

        Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        LOL! NOAA and NASA must be lying then.

        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

        http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2012/the-making-of-the-hottest-year-on-record-usa-temperature-update

        Keep in mind that the average you’re using has been adjusted to include global warming. That’s right, the man who claims the Earth isn’t warming is using the adjusted average! LOL That means the temps are right on target if global warming is real, otherwise, it’s just another strangely hot fricken year.

        If you’re gonna claim it’s not getting hotter, how about using the century average to compare to.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          GLOBALLY, 2012 – average temperatures for the ENTIRE EARTH are average (+0.043 degree): http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

          GLOBAL temperature Jan. 1 thru Nov. 15 (NASA IR data) is 0.043 degrees warmer than average. That’s 43/thousands of a degree or approx. 4/100 degree warmer than average…or essentially average. Nortb American and the Arctic have been significantly warmer than average. Most of the rest of the world has been slightly cooler than average: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

          Global temperatures have been steady for a decade:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/1-s2-0-s0921818112001658-gr11.jpg

          No warming last 10 years:

          http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          No warming last 10 years:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. Even Prof. (Phil) Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2CKm0nmy5

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201201-201210.gif

          This map show’s NOAA’s take on the 2012 temp average. Keep in mind they’re using the global warming adjusted average. The century average would give us much more dramatic warming!!

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Look at the raw data…not the “adjusted”, conclusion-driven, politically-motivated, funding-seeking, outcome-based product of a zealot (http://blogs.nature.com/news/2010/09/nasas_james_hansen_in_handcuff.html): http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

  29. Becky says:

    Okay, one last comment and I’m done. I would just suggest this: you seem a little out of control, Mr. Steffan. I understand that you have a viewpoint, and that comments here try to aggravate you and challenge your view constantly. However, you don’t have to take the bait. Posting the same “response” several times to one board? That does not accomplish anything, trust me. It makes you look a little unprofessional and slightly immature. In short, it damages your credibility. We all encounter people who disagree with us; the key is dealing with them in the right way, especially when this is a blog through your workplace.

    You also never answer other people’s legitimate questions. It seems like you police the boards looking for dissenting comments to combat with, while ignoring the comments and concerns of readers who did not come here to fight with you at all! I would expect a more open (about your winter forecast), friendly, and non-combative approach on a professional blog.

    You’ll never convince the commenters here, just as they will never convince you. Why spend so much time fighting a battle you can’t win instead of taking advantage of this blog to inform and inspire people interested in weather, no matter what their view on climate change? The blog is not a welcoming environment at this point, in large part due to your attitude in the comment section.

  30. Rumrunner says:

    Dude, this is all been said to him before. Well said though. He’s an old man, set in his ways.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I won’t roll over when confronted with politically-driven lies and hyperbole. I’ll stop doing the blog before I punt the comment section over to a one-sided assault on truth and on my character and motivation.

      1. Rumrunner says:

        Im glad you don’t rollover. But taking every single piece of bait is just like a punch drunk boxer trying to land the KO blow… Eventually you end up on the canvas. Becky is right. The last paragraph says it the best.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Sorry, free speech is not a one-way street. You are hypocrites to ask for only one side to stop and not the other. The thread I wrote here is not political. I don’t start the political discussion. I don’t direct the discussion to my own personal politics. Bullies (cyber or otherwise) left unchallenged will continue to intimidate and bully (see Hamas).

  31. Rumrunner says:

    Whoa pal. You trying to sit there and tell me that I haven’t said similar things, publicly, to certain folks on your blog is wrong. I think you and I have brought it up in an email, though Im not sure. It has been some time. These idiots aren’t bullies, Bill. They are only frequent viewers of your blog who feel the need to get crap flying. They aren’t Hamas. They aren’t cyber terrorists. When the other bloggers started to ignore them, they came around a lot less. I believe Becky, and others, have tried to tell you that.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      OK – I appreciate that, Rumrunner.

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