Sunday
November 18th, 2012 at 8:21 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Picture of Clear Lake in Dowling by Mary at ReportIt. Click the pic. to enlarge. There are still a few boaters (mainly fishing). I saw nearly a dozen fishermen in the Grand River downtown Saturday. There are still a few golfers enjoying the mild weather. We’ve got another beautiful day today, mid to even a few upper 50s. Thanksgiving Day could still be the warmest – up around 60. A good shot of cold air to follow that. The European has 85o mb. temperatures (a little less than a mile above ground down to about -10C by next Saturday AM – with snow showers). More this evening.
000
FXUS63 KGRR 181203
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
.LONG TERM…(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
AS THEY SAY…WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN. MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK
WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER
THANKSGIVING UPSTREAM CHANGES IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BEING TO
IMPACT SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IN THAT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER WILL BEGIN.
THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA HAS HAD THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPLIT INTO THREE
BRANCHES MOST OF THIS PAST WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO AT
LEAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A MAJOR PATTEN ADJUSTMENT OCCUR
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THIS BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS UP.
COULD NEXT SATURDAY BE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT…
A LEAD WAVE COMES OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND HEADS OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY.
IT BEYOND THIS POINT THAT THINGS GET MORE ACTIVE. THE ECMWF AS FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW BEEN MUCH STRONGER ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THAT
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. IN FACT THE 18/00Z RUN IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER AND HAS A DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE 17/12Z RUN OR EVEN MORE SO THAN THE 17/00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS A
FLAT WAVE WITH THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND
THAT THE GEM IS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF TOO… I HAVE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
HERE. THIS WOULD BRING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE IMPACT WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
WOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WOULD SEEM WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST REAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY MORNING IF THIS
IS IN FACT TRUE. FOR NOW I HAVE PLAYED THIS DOWN IN THE GRIDS BUT IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK TO SEE OUR FORECAST FOR SAT GET COLDER
WITH MORE SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER… UNTIL THEN RIDGING RULES SO WE WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT. I INCREASED THE
HIGHS WED AND THU BASED ON THE 1000/850 THICKNESS TOOL I STILL USE.
IT WAS WITHING 3 DEGREES OF THE GRR HIGH THE PAST 3 DAYS. IT IS
FORECASTING MID 60S THURSDAY! I PUSHED THE HIGH TO THE LOWER 60S BUT
THAT IS LIKELY NOT WARM ENOUGH. SHOULD BE GREAT WEATHER FOR HOLIDAY
TRAVELS THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY.
&&
Do they changes happen from the blocking high? A lot of dynamics are keeping this pleasant weather around. We will have to see how this all plays out!
Thanks for posting!! sure has been a warm couple if decades for Thanksgiving. I remember snowmobiling as a young kid with my family on many Thanksgivings.
Looks like were in for a warm week then really cold and a lot of snow
perfect week!
Yeah, it’s good to hear that we will return to normal temperatures soon. These last two years have been very warm, we’re due for some cold and snow.
It’s called Climate Change for a reason. The cold will NOT return. The globe hasn’t had a below ‘average’ year since 1976. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201201-201210.gif And that map’s based on the global warming adjusted average!
Exactly big Daddy thank you for being on my side like I said people the snow and the cold are done for good global warming keeps the snow and cold away there will be no snow probably not even a flurry next Saturday you guys get your hopes up for nothing lay it off it won’t happen THAT SAID!
Big Daddy
Thank you for using the term climate change.
Deb
Angry much?
In mid January you will both be eating those words.
Don’t you guys remember 2010, it was really cold and we even got a blizzard?
I mean 2010-2011.
Hey Deb, can you please find a weather blog down in Oklahoma to be a crazy lady on and leave us alone? Thanks.
Micheal I can do what I want this is a PUBLIC blog not private meaning anyone from anywhere can comment so if you want me to leave it won’t happen lol!
I find it ironic and almost humorous that big Daddy BC/Brad/Joanne quote Ad nauseam scientists and groups that support man made global warming/climate and think that they can predict that “cold will not reurn”. They claim that the people and groups opposing man made climate change are big oil hacks and big business stooges, while their own scientists are somehow altruistic and have no allegiances. How ridiculous!!
I heard that NWS gets a BIG chunk of change from our tax dollars to research global warming. Do you think that could be incentive to present the data in a way that keeps that flow of money? Hmmmm…. Seems like it’s Big Oil vs Big Government, and with the current administration, probably an een bigger government supported by overtaxing the big oil.
There, I got all political now let’s watch the weather and see how a God whose bigger than oil or government makes fools of us all.
Michael g – I was going to offer to send Deb (OK city) a box of snow, with a few commas and periods thrown in for fun? She seems to envy our weather!
Hi, Chrispy. So the National Weather Service is now doing climate change research? LOL That global warming sure is a cash cow. Looks like everyone’s getting in on it. Fraid not, Dopey, but it does make a good conspiracy theory.
Steven, I realize that scientists are humans too. …And as humans might fall victim to greed, but let’s be realistic. We’re talking about a conspiracy to collect grant money that would have to be so well organized and vast that it would include every industrialized nation on Earth, all universities, and every single meteorological institution. Just imagine how big and interconnected this network of crooked scientific institutions would be. It would include NASA, NOAA, IPCC, EPA, The World Meteorological Assn., The Japanese Met Assn., Cryosat, and Disney! Why not just save the effort and take over the world?
DISNEY??? Now you’ve really lost it! http://www.thaimokit.com/photo/Poster/Walt-disney/SP-WM483-bi-Micky-Maus.jpg
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017c3393d350970b-pi
Bill, when do you put your winter forecast out?
Well I guess they changed it oh well maybe the December 7-9 one will still happen
.LONG TERM…(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2012
FAIRLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. WE
DID LOWER THE MAX TEMP FCST JUST A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO BASED ON MEX NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AND NW FLOW CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
H8 TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY (THAT MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW FLAKES NORTH
OF I-96) BEFORE A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN TO PRODUCE DRY WX SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
Good Day,
And it is likely to change again, and again, and again…
Steelie
Exactly… Still quite a few days out yet.
Too funny!
Good Day,
Interesting…
Global Cooling: A Far More Dangerous Fate
http://pjmedia.com/blog/global-cooling-a-far-more-dangerous-fate/
Steelie
Ahh Deb can stay, she can give us our winter weather play by play while down there. Lol if you think the snow is gone for good, you must be buying some good stuff down there.
But Deb said the snow is not coming this year…that we are not getting any winter. Ludington is going to get it all. Now you say it is coming. I am so confused………………….
Wow, another phenom day for 36 holes of disc golf at Brewer Park south of GR again today! Couldn’t believe how many people were out playing for this late in the year. Seems like another lifetime ago we would use to go snowmobiling this time of year. Those days seem to be gone for good now. Can’t remember the last time we did that. Won’t need to find any indoor recreation if this kind of weather continues!
I am in 100% agreement!
It was another great day on the golf course! Sunny, temps well into the 50′s and light wind. Get out enjoy what is unquestionably a warm pattern! No snow storms are in sight people.
No one golfs in november but you rj.
It was a GREAT day to be out on the links!
Not true…..my husband, father-in-law, and I were out for a very nice 9 holes. I even was under bogey golf for a change (44) and beat the two of them. By the time we left Shamrock Hills, there were at least another 8-10 golfers. We were even out two weeks ago when it was a lot colder. There are a lot of late season golfers out…the rates are a lot cheaper.
It either needs to stay mild or get cold and stay that way. No wonder soo many are sick. This stomach virus ive have has kicked my butt for 5 days and im just feeling better.
Btw santa told me he wants to wear burmuda shorts this year bill. Im dreaming of a green xmas!
Thank goodness you didn’t have to worry about missing work!
Thank god ive got enough money now so i dont have to work.
GFS trending colder for week after Thanksgiving. Still on track to see real winter weather arrive by around December 1st.
Did joe.b tell you that?
Hilarious, the morning run of the CPC 8-14 day outlook had us in the below average temperatures, now we are in the above average temperatures. Imagine that the long range models were wrong again. All of the snow lovers out there will need to be patient, because there are no snow storms in sight. This pattern is starting out just like it did last year! Warm with no snow storms!
Ive already heard this winter may be a repeat and im fine with that.
So, even though it’s 8-14 days away, you already know that yesterday’s run was wrong because today’s is right?
Yes, this time of year most of the long range forecasts that try and predict COLD and SNOW are wrong!
Thank you Rocky and fixxxer I am trying to tell these people it will be a repeat of as winter and they don’t believe me but they are setting them selves up for a big disappointment so if they want to do that I will not bother messing with them! just know Jordan and Michael I will be able to tell you I told ya so in the spring so you need to be patient and maybe next winter will bring more snow for you guys but this winter just isn’t the winter for you snow lovers!
A repeat of last winter based on what info?
Bill had a link in a previous blog showing something like 85% of Canada has snow cover oppose to about 65% last year at the same time. So I wouldn’t jump the gun on your little predictions just yet. Based on your logic next summer will be hot and dry again. All you can do is predict, it still means nothing.
Polar vortex has been on the other side of the globe the last month and strong blocking close to the Bering sea. This looks to change by all the models the first week of December as the polar vortex will set up shop close to its hang out spot around the Hudson Bay region. Most models have sub -20 to -30 degree temperatures revving up in that part of the area and start sending lobes of arctic air down this way but not as cold as that. Per sentence above is the reason why it has been so warm and dry of the late but looks to change right around the end of the month how that happens is yet to been seen. Most of the models out to the medium to just the start of the long range forecast start to develop a winter pattern. Some of the models have a couple of good storms either coming up this way or up the eastern seaboard, but alot of it will depend upon how the NAO goes negative which is about two weeks out. Thats just a bit to far out to really forecast where that position of the NAO will be but looking at past months history it should be at least -1 or little below which should give someone a good dosing of a first winter storm and probably a significant severe weather event as well. The gulf looks to be involved so will have to wait and see. If we can get the subtropical jet and the polar jet to interact someone ends up with a big storm. So the fun begins to see the pattern adjust and it sure has been a very boring one for quite awhile. There is a good snowpack over Canada so once we start to lay down some snow in the northern parts the cold should grow. I think we could be looking at a pretty wet December based on a pattern I see setting up…as we know will just have to wait and see….I hope its a barn burner of a winter
It sounds good on paper and we can only hope that this happens, however I have zero trust in any long range forecast that involves SNOW!
Will not happen Kevin trust me please do not get your hopes up your setting your self up for a big disappointment!
Hey miss power trip, what makes you so sure? Why should we believe you over someone else with a different perspective? Kevin just posted quite a bit of scientific info above, and usually does. You on the other hand just come out and say it’s not gonna happen because you saw a video. Your gonna have to do better than that.
Thank YOU for actually discussing meteorological terms….not saying “It is going to be cold and snowy because I SAID SO.” a few on here could learn from you Kevin
Very insightful, knowledgeable post Kevin. Whether or not all of those ingredients line up remains to be seen, but I am getting somewhat optimistic as a result of your prediction. A post like this certainly puts any posts that say things like “we’ll have no snow this year because we had little snow last year” that are based on nothing but speculation and emotion to shame. Hopefully it’ll work out the way you’ve speculated it will.
In fact fixxxer I have actually heard from watching some videos and forecast that there could even be less snow than last winter! wouldn’t that be wonderful for you fixxxer? a green Christmas and less snow than last winter
People who don’t cite the sources of their info are often making said info up.
Michael I have cited this stuff and have found a majority of people saying it will be an above average winter in temps and below average in snowfall get it straight!
Saying that you cited it, and actually showing your sources are two completely different things.
Michael, “stuff” and “people” are sources…don’t you get it? NO WINTER this year!
Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi
Well well well I see 18z GFS is much colder this weekend and then next week than 12s What a shock. #winterscoming
The 12Z and 18Z have been night and day lately. Look at one, and you see ’11-’12. Look at the other, and you see ’08’09.
I’m so sick of people being so negative on here c’mon give us snow and cold lovers a break if you want to be negative keep the negative comments inside you instead of posting them it can be hurtful sometimes because all we do is just say we want a snowier winter and then some of you come in a boss us around like were your slaves and say that it will never happen so please keep those comments to you’re self and Deb you can stay of the blog but please keep those negative comments to you’re self thank you
No Jordan not negative comments just the facts like, this year is starting out just like last winter, we in a warm pattern and most long range models are junk!
Hey Deb? Remember last year how everyone said it wold be cold and snowy and it wasn’t? Given that info, i wouldn’t trust what other people say. Look into the data yourself and come up with a conclusion. Don’t rely on other people!
It’s mid-November, not even real “snow season” yet in West Michigan…a bit early to be making sweeping generalizations about what the winter will or will not bring. Snow at this time of year is just an extra treat to put people in the holiday spirit (or give them an extra reason to grouch, “Bah, humbug!”
).
You all act as if your opinion or long range forecasts actually produce or influence the weather. What a bizarre blog.
This is nothing but an echo chamber of conflicting grumpy old people sitting at a coffee shop. Each talking and no one listening.
Actually, I think it is more like children…old grumpy is more like fixxxy
Good Day,
Take it for what it is worth… the Winter forcast from CMU:
MOUNT PLEASANT, MI — The winter in Michigan may be warmer than average, but residents can expect more snow than last year.
Based on current conditions, it is likely that Michigan will experience slightly warmer than average temperatures this winter and average precipitation amounts,” said CMU earth and atmospheric sciences assistant professor Daria Kluver.
Mid-Michigan can expect approximately 24 inches of snow from November to February, which is average for the area.
“Once the average temperatures fall below freezing, we should get normal amounts of snowfall,” Kluver said. “I hope Michiganders enjoy all of their usual winter hobbies with a more average snowfall season.”
The reasons? El Niño and the polar jet stream, she said.
Dring a warm El Niño event, Kluver said, warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures move from the western to the eastern equatorial Pacific. This causes a change in the location of a large area of low atmospheric pressure.
The polar jet stream north of Michigan is pushed farther north, meaning the state has warmer temperatures.
“Right now there is a very weak El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific with temperatures 0.5 to 1.0 degree Celsius warmer than normal,” Kluver said. “A large group of climate models from around the world forecast the weak El Niño signals to continue and in some cases even weaken into the late winter season.”
Steelie
24 incHes?? Really? That “stat” sounds way underdone. I know mid-Michigan doesn’t get all the lake effect, but nowhere in Michigan gets less than 30 inches of snow. Sure, there is additional snow in March and April. I find it disappointing that a professor thinks her area averages only two feet of snow a winter, and then states it as fact.
I suppose looking at these maps that they really could get such little snow…but even looking at these maps, one can see some of the extreme differences in data.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:BRkjeEa34N8J:www.gcrc.org/files/newletters/Average%2520Snowfall%2520Depth%2520-%25207.pdf+average+michigan+snowfall+map&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESigKtxyp1XQDHirMABLFaUXz-TR20dRcNt3_a4_iMx89FBVojN_FvDBjX1sbllPtg2P4XxaN5p7YQaBgiPiuwGbFOtZ7cswEWqzyaWkWlMy9YaPQsQEelvMh9c9DdRt8x9ruY-v&sig=AHIEtbRKHNioJlilG3pygMH-X52Qw7vBdw
http://www.google.com/search?q=average+michigan+snowfall+map&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari#biv=i|1;d|VdftuWwFzM8ZpM:
http://www.google.com/search?q=average+michigan+snowfall+map&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari#biv=i|1;d|VdftuWwFzM8ZpM:
http://www.google.com/search?q=average+michigan+snowfall+map&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari#biv=i|29;d|KsWqk3eubwyZ9M:
Thanks for the links.
I like to know why Bill is not giving his winter outlook or not commenting on any of these model runs.
I’m 50 years old and have many years of looking over data, listening to people analyzing my info. given to me at hand and then inturn interpreting it to you all. You all can take it anyway you want and that’s why I come on here like the rest of you “other” nice people who like to read my comments without all the bashing. I read all your comments but try not to bash you but can we please stop smashing each other in the jaw on here. I go away for a little while to see what comments come up on some info. on here and it seems I’m an elementary teacher trying to get back control of the classroom. I’m just giving you guys info. like everyone else and I enjoy reading all of yours but come on guys the politics and other garbage has gotta to go. I really miss when this blog first started up and how fun it was to just talk weather not personable, political, economical unless Bill posts something else about it like his sports weekend thread. Lets all get back to the fun of this, plus the holidays are coming and I really don’t feel like listening to a bunch a junk on here don’t you think.
<:). No harm done, eh.
Agreed Kevin, I really enjoy reading your thoughts also!
Yes Keven there is way too much BS now on the blog while some of the BS can be expected there is way too much and it takes way too much of the interest out of the blog. Just look at all of the “old” timers that no longer write on here!!! One has to wonder how long this blog will continue to be here.
SlimJim
Better check the winter oscillations there tanking. Cross polar flow possible set for the first week of Dec. New euro out here shortly and weeklies coming out, I’m hoping it looks damn cold.
Go back to Iceland you visitor you!!!
something is going to happen cause the deer we just cut up had 1in. layer of fat on it,they stocking up for something.
Here’s what’s going to happen- you’re going to have a tasty dinner or two!