Storm Next Week?

November 19th, 2012 at 5:50 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Check out the European model for next Weds.  That’s a big, windy 983 mb low near Milwaukee.  The FIM model has an Arctic Blast that would really get the lake-effect snow machine cranked up.  It has the 1000-500 mb thickness in G.R. down to 505 in G.R. next Thursday with a stiff, cold NW wind and northwest flow lake-effect snow for at least the U.P., NW Lower and the SW corner of Michigan.   The GFS is also on board with some snow and a good shot of Arctic air coming down into the Midwest/Great Lakes.   Bottom line – enjoy the mild weather this midweek.  A more wintery pattern is on the way.   Also, Autumn snow extent in Eurasia is the greatest recorded  since the start of the modern satellite era in 1979, (data from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.).   Here’s current snow cover in Asia and current snow cover in N. America (note the ice starting to form on the west edge of Hudson Bay and also in Lake Winnipeg.  Here’s the North American snow map from Rutgers.  Here’s the raw figures from Rutgers (Snow Lab) for N. Hemisphere (and Canada).  The data shows Canada with a 17% above average snow cover and the Northern Hemisphere at 11% above average.   This would be another point on the side of a colder winter for Michigan.  The white snow reflects more energy (heat) from the sun back to space and allows faster radiation of heat to space on clear nights.  Here’s the Lower 48 temperature anomaly map for the past two weeks.       Check out this cool video (t-storms, tornadoes, time lapse, volcanoes, etc.).

129 Responses to “Storm Next Week?”

  1. Sprites says:

    No Bill its never gonna snow again!!! florida like winters!
    LOL.
    Bottom line:
    Winter is coming.

  2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    Woo hoo! :)

  3. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Is there a name for this storm already? What are the vegas odds of it hitting?

    1. bnoppe(Albifon) says:

      1:100,000,000

      1. Marti B (Grandville area) says:

        Ain’t it the truth! ;)

  4. Global Warming Is Great says:

    man, you have been just chomping at the bit for crummy weather since at least march 2012. too bad we do not share your enthusiasm/evident joy.

  5. Mike in Hamilton says:

    After Thanksgiving? Perfect time to start winter!

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Not gonna happen!!!

  6. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    What about Twin Lake you say NW flow will Twin Lake get some I hope so?

  7. kevin. w says:

    Gem model shows two storms one next week and another the following, but the gem model shows a more second potent storm coming. The polar vortex comes across the other side of the world like gangbusters and setting up shop over Hudson Bay for quite sometime from the first week of Dec. and beyond. Yeah

  8. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    I’m starting to get hyped up :) see I told you Deb it’s going to happen :)

  9. Jen in Middleville says:

    Ready for snow! Hoping over here we see a bit of those storms. Looks like Jordan right.

  10. kevin. w says:

    can you say lake effect blizzard warning with all that energy built into to those warm waters and arctic air over it.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Yeah I’m thinking were in for something really good next week hump day we can call it the hump day blizzard lol :)

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Ya, the GFS is usually a little overdone that far out, but that is quite an impressive model run for the 29th. I think that one we should be keeping an eye on. Looks like a lot of cold air building just north of the border. It could get quite interesting around here in the next few weeks.

    3. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Not gonna happen!!!!!

  11. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    I’m wondering if it will be more of an ice storm than blizzard because accuweather has .35″ of ice for me next Wednesday and Thursday I sure hope not I would rather a foot of snow than a ice storm with no power for a week!

    1. Sprites says:

      Accuweather is not reliable.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        I know I was just saying that’s always a possibility too but I sure hope not!

  12. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Let the HYPE begin! I bet that I will be golfing next week!

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Even in 30 degree weather?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes, with any temperature above freezing and no snow on the ground I will be golfing, unless it is very windy. I prefer the windchill to be above about 25 degrees!

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          You are a true die hard man. Even in the rain?

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          No I should have added that as a qualifier. I will not golf in the rain if the temperature is below 45 degrees!

  13. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Yep even this model is showing some good snow next week YAY I’m getting very excited :D

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_ptyp&loop=loopall&hours=hr192

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Not gonna happen Jordan it’s way to far out don’t even get hyped up about it

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Your snappy little comments are more annoying than comments from the far left group of a few on here. At least they can support links to back up their theory, or lack there of.

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          IKR shes a little bi***!

  14. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    It will not happen guys it just won’t so no need in getting hyped up I also don’t believe it’s going to get that cold.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, all of these models may be totally different just 24 hours from now!

  15. Jack says:

    Hype ? Maybe or Maybe Not !! The Tile of This Thread is Missing….ahhhh… ??????????????? ;-)

  16. Jeff (Fremont) says:

    Ooorah to the snow!

  17. big Daddy BC says:

    For those craving a seasonal prediction, NOAA just released this:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/showimages/Mid-Nov_2012_Climate_Outlook_for_the_Central_US.pdf

    “The probability of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer of 2013 is at about 60% with decreasing chances of El Niño.”

    Perhaps we will have a more ‘normal’ feeling winter after all, but I doubt it.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Than bet me!!!! You take warm…I’ll take average and colder than average! Please!! Any amount…$1, $10, $100

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Looks like we have another bet on our hands lol

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Hey, if I win we can use it to be some grillin’ (INDY’s in charge!) and Sprites for the Bill’s Blog Summer Picnic!

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          I’m in if the Sprites are on the house!

        3. Dan says:

          Ahh, another reason to have a party. Lets get this party started!

      2. Rumrunner says:

        BRing on the cold and snow… I need to put some hours on the sled.

      3. big Daddy BC says:

        Are you finally taking a stand on this winter’s weather? You waited till some actual snow was in the forecast. LOL As of yet we’ve heard nothing but ambiguous jibber-jabber out of you on the subject. Are you saying colder-than-average winter? Is that the official Bill Steffen Magoo forecast? Do you want to put a ‘Shovel Ready’ headline with that? Don’t forget, I beat you BAD last year. LOL

        I’ll happily and easily go out on a limb and say average to warmer than average temps. Snow’s a wildcard, but I’m gonna call for above average precip, although much of IT may come as rain. What’s your call on snow, Magoo?

        Am I invited to the party or is this for teabaggers-only? I bet you uptights really know how to party. ;)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          “average to warmer than average temps. Snow’s a wildcard..” Boy, that pins it down. And I’m forecasting a gradual cooling trend into early January.

          Sure you’re invited, but if it’s potluck, I’d hope you’d bring something and not just mooch off the rest of us.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          “You take warm…I’ll take average and colder than average!” (NO MENTION OF SNOW) -Bill Steffen

          You’re not exactly rockin’ out anything too definitive either, Magoo. Here’s what I said,

          “I’ll happily and easily go out on a limb and say average to warmer than average temps. Snow’s a wildcard, but I’m gonna call for above average precip, although much of IT may come as rain.

          So (ME) average to warm with above average precip VS (YOU) average to cold with no mention of snow. LOL

          As far as my mooching goes, didn’t you say you wanted to bet? You’re the one who didn’t honor the last bet he made.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          What bet? I’ve asked you to bet many times and you run for the tall grass! So, pick a number for snowfall and pick a number (relative to average) for temperature. Remember, you’re the global warming alarmist…you don’t win many points if it turns out to be “average”. If I were you, I’d be true to alarmism and go 3 or 4 degrees warmer than average…at least…hey, the planet is disintegrating – go 5 or 6 degrees warmer than average…oh, give us your detailed reasoning (which can be as simply as saying carbon dioxide is going up, so every month will be warmer than average…that’d do).

          For the potluck, you can bring ice – you can grab some off one of the calving glaciers.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          You must have watched that link to Chasing Ice I posted. http://www.chasingice.com/

          Good for you. It’s a great movie and really demonstrates how quickly we’re losing our glaciers. So you dodged another chance to do a real forecast for our little bet. Are you actually forecasting below average temps? I told you twice now that I’ll stake out average to above average temps and above average precip.

          I love that in your last post you demonstrate how little you understand about climate change. No one believes it happens that way. This system isn’t static. Yes there’s an established causality between CO2 and temp. It’s more than a correlation, but it’s global and the fact that globally we’re in the 338th consecutive month with temps above average makes a warmer winter a pretty safe bet.

          My above average precip estimate is based on the fact that the El Nino is fizzling out, but as I said, much of that may come as rain.
          How about we stake out a range? Would that make you feel safer? Come on, Magoo. Put your money where your mouth is!
          ;)

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          So apparently all that betting talk was BS. LOL I don’t blame you for not wanting to challenge my forecast. I beat you BAD last year!! Anyone else want to challenge the Big Daddy?!

          Didn’t think so.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Give us your “range”.

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          My range, huh?

          Average to .6 degrees above for the season

          For Precip, it’s tougher because technically we’re still in a drought and ENSO-neutral’s on the table. I’ll go out on a limb and say 5+ inches up on precip, but much of it rain.

          I can’t believe you made me go first. Wow. If I win, you wear an I Heart BIG DADDY BC t-shirt on the air. I’ll even send it to you.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          We had 6.32″ of rain in G.R. in October and 7.59″ of rain in Holland in October.

          I don’t think I want to wear one of your shirts: http://bigdaddysbailbonds.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/webbigshirtfront.jpg

          Head to Moscow and get one of my shirts: http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2011/06/Bill-Steffen-Cartoon.jpg

        9. big Daddy BC says:

          Apparently you’re too afraid to bet. Why would you ask to bet me and then chicken out? Ridiculous.

        10. Bill Steffen says:

          Good thing you didn’t bet me. I was only 1″ off on my winter snowfall prediction: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2012/12/a_winter_dumping_or_a_dusting.html

  18. bnoppe(Albifon) says:

    YA HYPE!!! but it’s better then nothing

  19. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    Going to start a gambling business for bets dealing with computer models more than 5 days out. Not saying anyone is wrong or wanting to cause arguments, but seriously. This is 8 days or so out. How many of you would put your money on this being what the forecast model maps will look like a week from now? I’ll take anyones bets. Just saying the odds are against this. 8 days out in the weather is almost 99% unpredictable

    1. bnoppe(Albifon) says:

      this system will be in Russia in TMW model runs then back here the next day if we get to this SAT and were still talking about this then I’ll get exicted

  20. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Still a long way to go. Heck, the 12Z GFS and Euro. had a strong storm next week…but looked more like rain. The 18Z GFS does look more promising for a winter storm….but the 12Z and 18Z have been flip flopping the last few days. A loooooong way to go. The NAO is going negative which means the storm could end up anywhere from the east coast to the west coast. How is that for accuracy?

  21. bnoppe(Albifon) says:

    I wonder which model will be most acuate this winter the Euro was good with Sandy

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      The model predicting days 1-3 will be the winner every time.
      BTW is Albifon in Michigan?

  22. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    Yeah not trying to be a buzz kill and if anyone, I love the hype and excitement and wouldn’t love anything more than a huge dumping of snow. But we should all be honest and not argue about it, but anything out past, say 5 days shouldnt even be talked about.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is music to my ears! Any model more than 4 or 5 days out is usually garbage, so any talk to the contrary is 100% HYPE!!!

  23. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Look at how all the thunderstorms panned out 8+ day out didn’t happen most of the time, but it’s Michigan you just never know about the weather. Although seems like the models are more accurate during the winter then summer. Oh well, what will be, will be.

  24. weather watcher says:

    Popping my head in…very carefully to say hello to Bill and thank Kevin W. for his informative posts. I always enjoy reading the blog…never a dull moment. :) Keeping an eye towards the storm. (I hope)

  25. arcturus says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it. Global warming effect here has bumped temps to the point that snowfall has turned into rainfall, plus the latest 30 day is calling for above normal temps which will soon become the new normal. November is turning into a great month for outdoor activities including cycling. My grass is still growing. Warmest year EVER for the globe and last month broke what, a 11 month string of above avg temperatures?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      2001-2010 was the snowiest decade in G.R. history. Look at this graph of N. Hemisphere snowfall: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201210.gif It looks to me like snowfall is increasing more than decreasing.

    2. Oh Geez says:

      “Warmest year EVER for the globe…”

      Not hardly.

      During the Pliocene, 2.6 to 5.3 million years ago, global temperatures were 2-3 degrees C warmer than today. (That’s “Centigrade”, not “Fahrenheit”.)

      Furthermore, scientists don’t know why, and have no reservations about admitting it:

      “The causes of the generally warmer climates of the Pliocene are something of a mystery.”
      http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/pliocene.html
      (Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

      Even more interesting is the fact that the Pliocene is considered a time of global cooling, coming after the even warmer Miocene (23 to 5.3 million years ago).
      http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/tertiary/pliocene.php
      (University of California Museum of Palentology)

      Note: It was during the Pliocene that Australopithecus evolved.

      Miocene: 23,000,000 to 5,300,000 years ago. (Warmer than during the Pliocene.)
      Pliocene: 5,300,000 to 2,600,000 years ago. Earth 2-3 C warmer than today.
      Australopithecus: 4,000,000 years ago (evolved) to 2,000,000 years ago (extinct).
      Industrial Revolution: 260 – 160 years ago. (1750 to 1850 A.D.)
      Internal Combustion Engine: 1862 (150 years ago; German inventor Nicolaus Otto marketed the first practical 4-cycle internal combustion engine.)

    3. big Daddy BC says:

      Globally, we haven’t had a single month below average since 1976. Arcturus is right about the average changing too. Many are using the adjusted global warming average for comparison. It’s half a degree warmer than the century average. Scary.

      Oh Geez, get real on the Pliocene. We’re talking about a warmup today that’s covering decades not hundreds of thousands of years. DECADES, Brain Child!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I simply do not believe “we haven’t had a single month below average since 1976″. Before satellites, only about 14% of the globe was deemed to have accurate temperature measurement. The winter of 1976-77 was the coldest winter in G.R. in the last 100 years. The winters of 1976-79 were very cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. The NWS has always used the most recent 3 full decades as an average. If you have a problem with that, write to NOAA/NWS: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          I don’t have a problem with the average they use. The problem I have is when you use that average to mislead viewers into thinking it isn’t as far from normal as it really is. NOAA also uses the century average which you NEVER use. Any statistician will tell you that the longer the data set, the more accurate the calculated mean.

          Sorry you don’t believe we haven’t had a month below average globally since 1976, but NASA and NOAA both think so, and I’ll trust their data over your ‘gut’ instincts about a topic you demonstrate a white hot ugly bias against. Heck, you’re getting paid to say otherwise.
          Climate’s getting warmer, Magoo. Data doesn’t lie.

          “This is the 332nd consecutive month with an above-average temperature. The last below-average month was February 1985. The last October with a below-average temperature was 1976. ” http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          You’re the one who’s misleading. There’s no reason to use the 1951-1980 average. None – except to pick the coolest 3-decade average to make the present look warmer. NOAA/NWS uses the most recent complete 3 decades for an average. If you have a problem with that…go to NOAA/NWS. If you use a longer average, you have to realize that much of the globe didn’t have accurate temperature measurement before the satellite era and IR data. I have shown dozens of times on this blog that global temperatures have held steady for the last 10 years at least (many say 15 years, back to 1998). CO2 levels have been falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1 There is no need (no benefit – global temperatures won’t budge a tenth of a degree) in forcing utility bills to “skyrocket” and to tax gasoline to “European levels” ($9 a gallon). That would be a terrible burden on the lower and middle class with no reasonable benefit.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          He loses the argument and so falls back into the gas prices rhetoric. LOL More hyperbole. I clearly stated that we should be using the CENTURY AVERAGE in discussions of climate change. The other is fine for weather.

          Did you hear that we’re in the 333rd consecutive month with temperatures above average?? LOL

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          And again, I simply do not believe the “333rd consecutive month” garbage. Those are “adjusted” temperatures. Temperatures will as warm or warmer in the 1930s. 24 of the 50 states have all-time heat records from the 1930s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes It hasn’t been warmer in the last 75 years.

          The satellite IR data from NASA doesn’t snow that at all: http://media.reason.com/mc/_external/2012_11/sept-2012-satellite-temperatur.png?h=289&w=500

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          So again, another NOAA, NASA conspiracy theory? Wow. I think we’ll trust the experts.

          http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/10

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          NASA puts out the satellite IR data. It’s available on the web if you want to plot it yourself. The graph I linked to is from NASA and the University of Alabama-Huntsville where NASA operations are located. The graph clearly shows we have had some months with below average temperatures. It also shows a steady temperature trend since about 2002.

      2. Oh Geez says:

        “Oh Geez, get real on the Pliocene. We’re talking about a warmup today that’s covering decades not hundreds of thousands of years. DECADES, Brain Child!”

        I don’t normally respond to snarky comments, but in your case, I’ll make an exception.

        First, I was responding to a comment that was a blatant falsehood (“Warmest year EVER for the globe”), and one that was easily proven so. I’m sorry if you lack the cognitive ability to grasp that simple fact.

        “get real on the Pliocene”

        You’re a good one to talk about getting real.

        The fact that you think ANY conclusions can be drawn, regarding the earths’ climate, from a few DECADES of data, while, at the same time, willfully ignoring the previous 4,499,999,850-or-so years, is mind boggling.

        The earths’ climate does not now, and never has, existed in stasis.

        The earths’ climate changes. It has changed repeatedly, over the last 4.5 BILLION years. Some of those have been both rapid, and dramatic.

        The data from the Pliocene & Miocene, which cover some 21+ million years, was merely ONE example. It was also an example of a dramatically warmer climate (relative to today), which occurred without any interaction from mankind.

        Milankovitch cycles, solar activity (E.G. Maunder minimum), volcanism, etc., have far more impact on the earths’ climate, than mankind could ever hope to.

        When compared to the 4.5 billion years of the earths’ existence, a few decades of climate data is statistically insignificant. (I.E. 150 years of data – roughly the number of years humans have been keeping weather-related records – would only represent approx. 0.000003% of the previous 4.5 billion years. To draw conclusions from a sample that infinitesimally small is preposterous.)

        Now, do you understand what I’ve just stated, Brain Child?

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          I do understand what you’re TRYING to say – It was warmer at certain times in Earth’s history, therefor it’s okay that it’s warming now, and that because we’re not considering data from all of Earth’s history, we don’t have a complete picture.

          To begin, from a biological perspective, if we’re to consider the effects temperature shifts will have on ecological communities, shouldn’t we be looking at modern ones? To consider how climate changes will affect Carboniferous fauna makes no sense, therefore we need to limit the scope of our examination to within ten to fifteen thousand years or so. Right? Now, we do have a pretty good picture of what’s happened since the last wave of glaciers retreated. It’s gotten warmer, surprise! One of the results of that is the mass extinction of the megafauna – mastodons, glyptodonts, giant beavers, etc. We’re still in that mass extinction, much of which has been accelerated by one very harmful invasive species – man. On top of all the obvious harmful effects of man’s growing population, we’re now filling the air with carbon. A statistical causality exists between this and warming. It’s undeniable, but is it detrimental to life? That’s what has scientists worried.

          Is it true that we’ve warmed before, sure. Is it true, as Bill likes to point out, that palm trees once grew here, yes. But consider that our state stone is fossilized coral that grew during the Devonian when Michigan was located on the equator under an ancient ocean.

          The real question is how well our ecological communities will withstand climate change, not whether it’s happened before, not whether it’s happening now. We know it is. The only one’s saying it isn’t are being paid to do so by companies that profit from it. So from a statistical standpoint, can we attribute that rise in temps to natural events? Our brightest minds say no. You point out solar and volcanic activity. According to the statisticians at Berkley, neither of these sources can account for the dramatic temperature increase of the last sixty years. Yes, volcanoes can cool and warm the earth, causing many ancient mass extinctions, but not this one.

          I guess what you need to ask yourself is whether the risk is worth it. Shouldn’t we be doing everything we can to lesson our impact on the natural systems that give us life? ..If for no other reason than our children’s future. I appreciate your logical approach to the problem, but would ask that you consider climate as something that can and is being modified by the animals on this world. It’s not the first time. Stromatolites oxygenated the atmosphere and created ozone. Plants, through transpiration, release the greenhouse gas, water, thereby warming the globe. Animals produce CO2, and on and on. Man’s influence on climate by burning the forests, draining the wetlands, paving over the soil, and burning hundreds of millions of years worth of fossilized carbon all within 150 years can not be denied.

          Think about it.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          LOL – did you read that? bigDaddy called human beings an “invasive species”. Where did we invade from? Krypton?

          The extinctions you mentioned were not related to humans.

          Climate change is continuous. There is no such thing as climate stasis.

          Our children’s future is threatened so much more so by a national debt of $53,000 PER PERSON in the U.S. – PER CHILD than a tiny increase in a by definition trace gas in the atmosphere.

          Global temperatures have been steady for 11 years: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

  26. Tom (Caledonia) says:

    Man U know Deb I think your so adamant bout us not having any winter cause you just don’t wanna be jealous of us if we have a rly snowy winter compared to last year when u lived here. :p

    1. Tom(Caledonia) says:

      Lol

  27. Tom(Caledonia) says:

    Wasn’t it just a few years ago we had like 100+ in snowfalls 2 years in a row? So after 1 warm winter I guess many just write those off as abnormal occurrences :p

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Yeah…2007-08 we had 107″ in G.R. and the following winter it was 104.9″.

      1. Tom(Caledonia) says:

        Thanks, I think it’s quite funny how fast some people jump on the global warming bandwagon after a warm winter, but just wait if we have a nice average or lil snowier Michigan winter they’ll be jumping off it in a jiffy :p

      2. Even in almost no lake effect Gratiot county we saw our 2 snowiest winters of all time in Breckenridge with 66.8 in 2007-08 and then 70.4 in 2008-09. I’ve been telling our farmers for about 2 weeks big changes were coming just past thanksgiving and next week looks very interesting. Lets put the nice but boring pattern behind us !

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Actually, warmer temps should mean more snowfall because the lakes are warmer and the air can hold more moisture.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I don’t think the lakes are “warmer”. Check this out: http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=m&yr=0 We’ve had ever-so-slightly cooler than average temperatures since August 1 in G.R. and after a very warm July, it looks like the lakes are back close to average temperatures for this time of year.

        1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Good article here on it:

          The water of the five Great Lakes, at the border between the United States and Canada, displays the highest temperatures of the past century, the results of a new scientific investigation in the area show.

          If water temperatures do not decrease until the beginning of the fall, then there is a significant chance that this winter will see vast volumes of snow being produced by air masses that pass above the Great Lakes. A similar occurrence took place during 2010′s infamous Blizzmagedon.

          http://news.softpedia.com/news/Great-Lakes-Are-Getting-Increasingly-Warmer-282999.shtml

        2. Rumrunner says:

          Blizzmagedon? Damn, I was always partial to “Snowpocalypse”.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Travis – It looks like the Lake Superior buoys were removed Nov. 8th. On that date, the water temperatures at the west buoy was 4.4C (39.9F). I haven’t checked, but the lake “overturns” at 40 degrees F, so I’d be comfortable in saying that’s an average water temperature for Nov. 8th. Any water temperatures a century ago are highly suspect. This buoy off the North Carolina coast: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036 shows a water temperature of 66.4F. That’s a little different from 39.9F. I’ve said before that you can’t predict lake-effect snow by looking at how warm it was in July. We’ve had essentially average temperatures since August 1 in W. Michigan and the lake has cooled down to an average temperature (South Lake Michigan buoy is showing 49.6F right now). We’ve had some very cold air come across Lake Michigan a couple times already with little or now snow, because other factors were negative.

        4. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          We are more than 3 or 4 degrees warmer than average so far in 2012.

          It’s only natural that the water would likely be warmer as well (depending of course when/where you measured and the turnover of the water).

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Except the warmth came before August 1 – the lake has had 3 months to cool back to average temperatures.

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          The lake that is almost at a record low level due to a global warming induced drought? That lake?

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Your “global warming induced drought” seems to have ended. We had the biggest flood on the Grand River since 1948 in April and the water level of Lake Michigan rose 10″ from April 1 to May 24. It’s not 9″ above the May level of 1964.

  28. arcturus says:

    I find it hilarious how some dismiss a warm episode as some anomaly while ignoring an ever growing body of data suggesting global warming is here and to stay. A good source of info is to check out the monthly NOAA Global Analysis Reports.

    1. Tom(Caledonia) says:

      Oh u mean data tht has been collected for what not even 200 yrs? /:) common sense says if u think the world is only thousands of yrs or millions of yrs old and u say the globe is warming from data you’ve collected from only a small fraction of time then your making great assumptions, but u know science it’ has its many flaws and they acknowledge there errors and correct them. I due time, :) or a humorous joke when Jesus comes again let’s face it its gonna get very hot ;)

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        We’ve had both palm trees and glaciers in Grand Rapids before and man had nothing to do with that kind of extraordinary “climate change”.

        1. Brad says:

          LOL…plate tectonics…equatorial land mass…next!

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          The last glacier retreated around 15,000 years ago. Snow at Grand Haven St. Park has drifted more than the continents in the last 15,000 years.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          To Arcturus…are you really sure that “global warming is here to stay”? U.S. carbon emissions are at a 20-year low: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1 A major volcano could significantly cool the Earth: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter We’ve had major cooling episodes before in relatively recent geologic history.

        4. Brad says:

          You just called palm trees in Michigan “climate change.” Did we have palm trees 15,000 years ago?

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          No, it was the glaciers 15,000 years ago as I stated. There was obviously very significant “global warming” in recent geologic history that had nothing to do with man.

          Look at this graph of Northern Hemisphere snowfall: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201210.gif It sure doesn’t follow CO2. This is exactly the opposite of what the global warming alarmists forecast: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          It snows weather it’s 15 degrees or 30 degrees. It can get warmer and stay below freezing, Magoo, but keep in mind that the closer it is to freezing the more moisture air can hold.

          As far as ancient climate changes go, a ten degree temp shift caused the Permian Mass Extinction, the biggest mass extinction of all time. The shifts you’re talking about are in the range of about 4 degrees. 1.6 degrees, scientists have determined is enough to melt the ENTIRE GREENLAND ICE SHEET! Keep in mind, we’ve already altered the thermometer on land by .9 degrees since the 1950s.
          http://berkeleyearth.org/results-summary/

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          It’s pretty cold in Greenland, bigD: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/04416.html -59F right now at Summit.

          Check out this out TODAY in the NEW YORK TIMES! http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/02/08/greenlands-glaciers-take-a-breather/

          It says: “Greenland isn’t melting as fast as we feared.” “Greenland was about as warm or warmer in the 1930’s and 40’s,and many of the glaciers were smaller than they are now.”

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          Bill, your NY Times link went to an old blog from February 2007!! LOL First, it’s a blog and second, IT’S 2007!! You really need to screen your google searches more carefully.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          Regarding Greenland, this from Andreas Muenchow at the University of Delaware:

          Air temperatures since 1987 have been warming at a fairly steady clip, but such warming has occurred in the 1920s-30s as well, so the current higher air temperatures are NOT unprecedented. Furthermore, air temperatures are largely irrelevant for Petermann Glacier, because air temperatures cause no more than 10-20% of the melting, because the oceans below this ice shelf cause 80% of the mass loss. For the ocean in and near Nares Strait and Petermann Fjord we only have records since 2003 which is NOT a climate record from which to draw conclusions regarding local, never mind, global warming.”

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Right, and of course ignoring the fact that worldwide temps haven’t increased in 15 YEARS.

  29. Skot says:

    Hey Chuck? Chuck!….”Good Grief”.

  30. Storm waning says:

    Oh good grief not again! What a bunch of hype. It will….
    1). Just miss us
    2) fall apart
    3) go to the north of us
    4) go to the south of us
    5) split up and go around us
    6) Lake Michigan will block,it
    7) Lake Michigan will stop it
    8) be weaker than expected
    9) etc etc etc
    Come on people! How may times are you going to be suckered? Yeesh you all look stupid! This is the same ole Jedi weatherman mind tricks. Next week? Next week? Every forecast less than 24- 36 hours is bull

  31. Storm waning says:

    Oops.,! More than 24-36 hours

  32. Skot says:

    Jedi weatherman mind tricks. Sorry Bill but Larry the Cable Guys says, “AT’s Funny Right ‘chair”.

  33. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Latest GFS now rolling in looks colder with a decent chance of lake effect snow by the end of the week.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’m fine with the cold and snow. Only problem is I need a new set of tires.
      Maybe a Christmas bonus is in the near future. That would be the ticket.

      1. Santa I mean Obama will get some new tires, just make a wish and hope them under your tree

  34. Walter says:

    Getting snowmobiles ready as we speak.

  35. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Well, it happened AGAIN…00Z GFS had us no higher than 33 degrees in the long range with lots of snow. 06Z GFS now has us in the 50s for several days in the long range with little snow and a rain storm bring one and a half inches of rain….. ugh ……

    1. Sprites says:

      Relax.. thats the first GFS run in the last 24 hours that shows warmer weather in the long range. Im sure the snow and cold will be back in the next couple runs.

  36. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    As I said last night…it was one model. So many are desperate for some snow, but that “storm” for next week is long gone on the models. It shows it cooling down, and then a warm up as we head into December. Again…anything past 5 days at this point is useless. The European model has also lost the storm out to sea….the Canadian still has a storm, but further south and east.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Not just one model…the GFS has been flip flopping all over the place. Worthless computer models….let’s go back to real meteorology.

  37. Nathan says:

    So what is the latest data showing?

  38. carl says:

    Come on snow wwwaaaiiitttiiinnnggg!!!

  39. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    If I remember correctly 2011 I believe the Blizzard in February the models did the same thing flip flopped until that very day it hit because it just couldn’t get a handle on that system until the last day? Whatever happens, happens.

  40. big Daddy BC says:

    Bill’s forecasting a colder than average winter now. I’m not sure he’s right.

    http://berkeleyearth.org/pdf/decadal-with-forcing.pdf

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I didn’t say “colder than average winter.” I haven’t issued a winter forecast.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        You said above that you’d take below average temps in a bet. It’s posted up top for the world to see. Are you backing away from that position now?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          This is what the post said: ” This would be another point on the side of a colder winter for Michigan.” I didn’t commit to anything.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          “Than bet me!!!! You take warm…I’ll take average and colder than average! Please!! Any amount…$1, $10, $100″ -Bill Steffen

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          I will take average and colder…you take warmer than average…based on the 1981-2010 climate normals that NOAA/NWS uses, OK? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html We can use the Grand Rapids official weather station or you’re to the south…we can use the Kalamazoo Airport and use the averages that are up on ACCU-WEATHER’s page (which I can write down and mail to you ahead of time if you wish).

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          Did you want to name a range? How about precip?

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s the final word on the winter. My forecast was for 67″ of snow this winter in G.R. We had 66″. I win, you lose: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2012/12/a_winter_dumping_or_a_dusting.html

  41. arcturus says:

    As I suspected, the models are trending rain … again. I know you doubters have a hard time accepting the new normal … warmer temps.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      February, March and April all cooler than average in G.R. Spring cooler than average. Germany having it’s coldest spring in 40 years. Read this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2331057/Why-I-think-wasting-billions-global-warming-British-climate-scientist.html

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