Warm thru Thanksgiving Day

November 19th, 2012 at 3:04 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Nice sunset pic. from “bblooyenga” at ReportIt.  Click here for full screen.  Today(Mon.) is the fourth day in a row that temperatures will reach the mid 50s (average high now mid 40s).  Through Sunday, Grand Rapids is 1.7 degrees colder than average for November, but that should be erased by the warmth this week.  The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. highs 53 Tues. and 58 on Weds.  It prints out 0.12″ of rain tonight into Tues. AM.  The European model has 0.19″ of rain Monday night and another 0.08″ with the cold front Thurs. night.  The cold air pours in starting Friday.  The European would probably keep temperatures in the upper 30s over the weekend with 1/2″ of snow for G.R. and an inch for Holland.  The heaviest snow may fall south of Holland along the lake with a stiff northwest wind bringing cold air over the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.  The 0.33″ of rain so far this month in G.R. is quite a comedown from the 6.32″ of rain we had in October.

Also:  Check out the pictures and video of 2 giant explosions on the sun on Friday.   The explosion was not aimed at the Earth, so disruption of communications and a chance to once again see the Northern Lakes is not likely.     If you really like snow..check out the monster snow amounts for the Cascades in Washington.  They could see over 6 FEET of snow on Mt. Rainier!   And here’s the huge waterspout off Bateman’s Bay, Australia.   Here’s some pretty good pics. and video of the storms in SE Queensland.  Video here and here.   Also, the models trending cool for early Dec.        Flooding in Scotland.

 

51 Responses to “Warm thru Thanksgiving Day”

  1. pat says:

    did i miss Bills winter forecast or hasnt it been posted yet

    1. Pat I have been asking this question for the last week and nobody not even bill has posted anything. He probably does not dare to after last years failed forecast. If you may recall what he said (GET SHOVEL READY AND GET YOUR SKI PASSES). Well some people made money on shovels and snow blowers and other lost there butts at the ski resorts. So I am asking the question again were is the winter forecast from all the meteorologist in our viewing area.

      1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

        After all of the grief Bill and the other meteorologists got after the past winter from some of you, he just may decide to pass on a winter forecast this time around. What will be, will be as the old song goes.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Bill informed me a couple of weeks ago on the blog that he wouldn’t be doing one this year. It is probably safer for liability issues that they don’t issue winter forecasts. Like you said, businesses may hear those forecasts and then be upset when that doesn’t happen. That’s why certain businesses hire their own private weather firms.

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      The discounted ski passes and shoveling contracts have already been bought by now, so the forecast is probably too late at this point (except for us weather geeks). I don’t think he’s doing one this late.

  2. michael g (SE GR) says:

    How about a thread just for winter forecasts, all other posts deleted? Winner gets to do a live forecast on Wood in the spring? OK, just kidding about that last part.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Sounds good to me. Heck even doing a live “spring” forecast would work LOL
      SlimJim

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well here is the GR NWS updated long range guess for the winter of 2012/12

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/presentations/Winter_Forecast_Updated_2012-11-19_12-47-14.pdf

    In the “official” thinking it still looks like a near average winter in our area.

    SlimJim

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      The NWS pretty much hedged their bets on that one. Guess I’ll buy a snow blower today.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I just looked up the data for those two winters and the good thing for us is there was snow on the ground (at least here along the lake through most of the winter. What I did notice was how quickly the depth decreased with two day warm ups. The depth literally goes from a foot down to a couple inches or nothing in one day. That’s the only thing I hate about lake effect snow. Low water content = rapid settling/melting.

      However, after those brief warmups it was right back to lake effect snow…much more common than last winter…

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        In December 2001 we had 51.6″ of lake-effect snow in the last 9 days of the month…but never had more than 17″ on the ground due to massive compacting. It never got warmer than 25 in G.R…all the air came out of the snow.

  4. Mindy says:

    With that Huge Solar Flair, 2 of them on 15th,throw a Monkey Wrench into the Winters Forcast, Bill are you in Panic Mode yet?

  5. Trend has been to a colder eastern U.S. solution, also what a joke the new US Climate models “CFS version 2″ is, talk about flip floping, what a waste of over a billion dollars that thing has been so far.

  6. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    That’s because it wants to forecast a cold winter, but the global warming activist living inside of it changes things and makes it present maps with much above normal temps….once in a while, it’s true self makes it out…

  7. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Accuweather now has from Muskegon to traverse city in the above average snow for this winter yay:)

  8. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Doesn’t look like the lake effect will amount to much, if anything this weekend. The Canadian model is the coldest of the models, but the Euro. is coming into line with the GFS that this should weekend should only bring a few light rain/snow showers. Longer range, both the Euro. and GFS have a strong low around 10 days out, but both are showing mostly rain with that as well.

  9. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Meteorologist over here said this morning that we’re going to cool down this weekend after the long warm spell… but that it then looks like we’re going back up again after that.

    So much for those models last week that showed all that snow this weekend, huh? Surprise, surprise

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Surprise, surprise – more long range models that are 100% incorrect.

  10. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Bill can you please tell us when your winter forecast will be released your really late this year is it because it’s a hard winter to predict?

    1. Brad says:

      No significant snow events until at least mid-December, if then. Bill is not releasing a winter forecast after losing a bet with bigDaddy about last year’s winter forecast.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Mid December if we are lucky and possibly another green Christmas.

  11. Brad says:

    This hasn’t exactly been a cold November, despite the cool start. Wasn’t this supposed to be the coldest November since “maybe 2002″?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes that was the forecast, however just more hype that ended up incorrect!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Brad…go here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=grr The preliminary monthly climate data for Grand Rapids for November 1-18 shows that we are 1.7 degrees COLDER than average for November. I added in today and we’re still at 1.4 degrees COLDER than average for November. The next 3 days should erase that, but then it gets cool again from Friday PM on. Kalamazoo (including today) is 2.7 degrees cooler than average for November 2012. Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the past two weeks: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=14d

      1. Brad says:

        We’ll see where we’re at after a few more days.

  12. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    OMG give it up would ya already snow lovers as i said before and i will say again it will not be a snowy winter and will be a warm winter i mean if it’s supposed to be 60 on Thanksgiving it most likely will be a warm winter with below average snow and remember how much the NWS was wrong this summer if they are forecasting snow events and colder weather it will most likely be the opposite of that with warm temps and no snow events I think it will be at least January if not later before michigan see’s any real snows!

    1. Brad says:

      The only question is how many times we hit 60F in December, and whether we can hit 70F.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I would say 60 degrees at least 4 times and 70 degrees one time.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        It’s more likely to reach -10F in December than +70.

  13. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    Winters are definitely changing around here. It just seems like people now say, “wait till the end of December or january and you’ll see your snow…
    So what, we can have two months of snow then get our first thunderstorm in march with 50′s? Lol that not a winter. I’m talking, snow for bow season, white Christmas, and snow drifts till may.
    Not gonna happen, at least not in west Michigan.
    Again its, will get snow end of October. Doesn’t happen
    November looks cooler with some decent snow chances, nothing.
    Now its first week of December?
    Until a model gets a hold on a snow producing system more than 5 days out, I wouldnt believe any of it. Going on your second year of proof.
    Here’s to a winter comparable to southern Indiana

    1. Brad says:

      Or this past March, when Lapeer and maybe one or two other localities hit 90 in March. WOW!

    2. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Yep winter in WM will be gone within a couple to few years then it will be a Florida winter it seams like there is less and less snow each year in WM maybe that is why Bill has not done a winter forecast because maybe it won’t be a winter in wm!

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No doubt – Warm pattern with no snow storms in sight! Winter is nothing like it used to be. I may need to move to the UP or Alaska to find any good snow! In the meantime I will just keep golfing and enjoying the above average temperatures and the snow free West MI!!!

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      November has been cooler than average and in fact, we are slightly cooler than average since the end of July. We’ve had a couple of snowfalls in May, but “snow drifts until May”? The average temperature on May 1 is mid 60s. Snow doesn’t last long after early April. Snowfall has not been decreasing of late in the Northern Hemisphere: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201210.gif

  14. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    First off Deb it is not getting warmer and warmer each year we can have 2 or three warm winters in a row and then a cold winter so if we have another warm winter this year that does not mean that the next 100 or 1000 winters in a row will be warm! I hope for a cold and snowy winter this year I think a majority of you saying it will be a really warm winter with below normal snowfall need to look again because from what I have seen it will be a near average to above average winter in snow and a near to below average winter in temps!

  15. Tom(Caledonia) says:

    U know all I gotta say is its pretty pathetic how some of you people think.. Oh one warm winter and now every single winter is gonna be like last year and in a few years ain’t ever gonna get a cold winter, psh wasn’t it in the past 5 yrs where we had 2 yrs where it was cold and had almost 100in or 100+ inches of snow?

  16. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Jordan, I hope that you are correct, however until I actually see some snow I will not count on it.

  17. Jeff(S.E.Ionia County) says:

    It will snow this winter ! Thats a given ;)

    1. Jeff (S.E.Ionia County) says:

      I predict 100% chance of snow drifts this season !

  18. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    Test

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      I predict a 100% chance we see snow drifts this season ;)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I would say it is closer to 99.9% :)

      2. Irish coffee says:

        Only thing 100% certain(BESIDES death) is taxes going UP when gov’t brokers it’s “fiscal cliff” avoiDANCE deal! I put the odds of spending cuts(overall REDUCTION in federal budget) at approx. 1,000,000:1. That’s in net/absolute $ terms….no fair balance/fairness in calling a smaller rise in spending a CUT either; which analogous to me telling my wife that although i spend $300/week on groceries NOW- i will ONLY spend $350/week next year(instead of the $400/week i would like to spend)and refer to it as a “spending CUT”!!

  19. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    I predict it will snow sometime this winter

    1. fixxxer says:

      Or next winter. ;)

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        Or not again it is possible!

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          Especially since we’re all getting blown to bits around Dec 21!

  20. Switchy says:

    Dec 21 first… Ha.
    I will say that the current events are playing right into the book of Revelation. As well as other books of the Bible. On the sun explosion. Here is one “And there will be signs in the sun, in the moon, and in the stars; and on the earth distress of nations, with perplexity, the sea and the waves roaring: Luke 21:25 Signs of the times.

    One More on the current event in Gaza “Gaza will be abandoned, and Ashkelon a desolation.” “Woe to the inhabitants of the seacoast, … O Canaan, land of the Philistines; and I will destroy you, so that there will be no inhabitant” (Zeph. 2:4-5). This is a yet future event!

    Are you ready. Ask Christ into your heart seek him now while he is still near.

    Theee Switchy

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Wow?

    2. Jack says:

      CUE: Big Tent Revivial – Personal Judgement Day Lyrics – YouTube

      ► 2:55► 2:55
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxKXXhjfnWA

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