Tuesday Showers

November 20th, 2012 at 2:27 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  We have a few showers (mostly sprinkles) coming through.  Most rainfall amounts in Wisconsin were near or less than 1/10th inch.  The European model gives G.R. 1/10th inch or rain, the other models a little less.   The Euro. would give us upper 50s Thursday with falling temps. on Friday and temperatures most of Saturday in the low-mid 30s, with maybe 1/2 to 1″ of lake-effect snow.   The GFS has a high of 36 Saturday and 40 on Sunday.   The models give us a little rain or mix with temps. only in the 30s on Monday.  The GFS might have 2-3″ of snow for G.R. long about next Thurs., and the overall pattern continues to look cool, with some rather chilly air across the northern U.S. from Montana to New England.

UPDATE:  Check out the CFS model for Dec. 22-27.   Hope you’re dreaming of a White Christmas.  That’s a long ways out, I know…but that’s a chilly forecast, with a bog slug of cold in the SE U.S.

Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map.

60 Responses to “Tuesday Showers”

  1. Lisa says:

    I know that the weekend of December 14 is a ways out as well..but do you know if it will be snowy? I am driving that weekend.

  2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We plan on being in Florida just after Christmas so if that CFS long range model verifies looks like we better take our warm weather gear down there with us. (we will take the coats no matter what)
    Some light rain fall here now with a temp of 41.
    It sure has been a nice stretch of November weather no matter what happens in the coming weeks this spell is nice to have this time of year!
    SlimJim

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Here is some interesting November facts from off to our north.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=76185&source=0

    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Wow that’s an awesome link. Thanks!

      Reinforces what we’ve all been saying how it seems like the new normal is that winter doesn’t start til sometime in December.

      For those outside the influence of the warmer lakes and enhanced lake effect, it’s been even worse.

      1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

        I see what you’re saying obviously, but is 4 years in a row enough to signal the “new normal”, especially considering the decade beginning in 2000 was snowier than usual? I would lean more towards it being an anomaly based on other factors (i.e. NAO, El Nino/La Nina, etc.), but we’ll see what happens down the line. If this continues for 3, 4, or 5 more years, then I might be convinced. I think it’s a little too early to establish this as a trend right now, however.

  4. Allendale says:

    http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-forecast-extended-long-range

    TWC just updated their winter forecast…have us in colder, colder, and much colder in the months of dec, jan, and feb.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Oooh – looks like Feb is the time to take a Florida vacation….LOL!!

  5. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I need to see a snow flake soon!

  6. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    From a meteorologist I follow out of Minneapolis:

    Record highs for Thanksgving day expected across the Midwest

    Right now I’m experiencing a potentially contagious case of “Where Am I Living”? This week we may hit 60s Wednesday & Thanksgiving Day. To put that into perspective, 140 years of NOAA weather records show only 1 in 14 Twin City Thanksgivings above 50F (not 60!). In fact, the odds of 50 on Turkey Day is roughly the same as experiencing a subzero low.

    1. Brad says:

      Warm temps, little snow last winter…80s and 90s in March…60s in November…new world order!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Nonsense. The 80s in March (there was one 90 at Lapeer) was extraordinary…but… It makes 60 degrees just about every November in G.R. It made 81 degrees in November in 1950. As of today, Nov. 2012 is 1.4 degrees cooler than average. Last winter’s snowfall wasn’t even in the lowest 20 winters for G.R. for snowfall. The decade of 2001-2010 was the snowiest decade ever in G.R. and snow. Northern Hemisphere snowfall has increased since the mid-1990s: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201210.gif

        1. Brad says:

          We’re talking Minnesota!

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Where did it make 90 in March in Minnesota? I checked Minneapolis. The warmest temperature in March 2012 was 80. There are 7 other times when Minneapolis reached 80 in March and 6 of those temperatures were warmer than 80 (81-83). I also looked at the record high temperatures for November in Minneapolis. There are 12 days with record highs in the 70s, 14 days with record highs in the 60s and only 4 days with highs in the upper 50s. So 60 in November in Minneapolis is more common than you think. As of today, Minneapolis has reached 60 just once this month.

        3. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Minneapolis made 4 or 5 new record highs in March 2012, but nothing 90.

          Most notable: March 16-19, Minneapolis saw four consecutive days 79 or above while the average high was 42 degrees. Wow!

        4. Brad says:

          Here’s a good summary of the infamous March heat wave. Look at that Pellston reading- an 84F day smashing the 55F record. Incredible!

          http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2057

  7. Sprites says:

    Annddd the 12z GFS once again shows a cold pattern with some really cold Artic air in the first week of December.

  8. Cort S. says:

    NOVA documentary on Hurricane Sandy.
    http://video.pbs.org/video/2305482040

  9. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    WOW I wish we lived in Marquette right now! this is from the NWS up there

    FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…CAA BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
    COLD FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE WILL
    SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY W TO NW
    FLOW BY LATER FRIDAY…PER ECMWF AND FOR NW TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS BY
    FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LAKE
    SUPERIOR. IF THE ECMWF/GEM VERIFY…THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER
    MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD
    SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LES ACCUMULATIONS THAT EVENTUALLY
    MAY REQUIRE HEADLINES. THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO BRING
    ACCUMULATING LES THAT WOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH MORE QUICKLY.
    THE CHANCES FOR LARGE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REDUCED AS LES
    DIMINISHES QUICKLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILD
    INTO THE AREA.

  10. Phil Boersma says:

    At the risk of eating my words later, I am positively pining for a cold, snowy winter this year! I absolutely hated last year’s wimpy winter, and another one like that again would really, really get me down. Snow and cold? Bring it on!

  11. Sharon L'Anse, MI says:

    Bill, What is a bog slug? Hmmmmm This is a brand new weather term for me to learn.
    Happy Thanksgiving!

    1. Mark (Okemos) says:

      Not sure either. A blog slug is something completely different, though.

  12. Brad says:

    What happened to snow in northern Michigan?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      It melted…average high temperatures in the U.P. for today are mid 30s to low 40s…snow in mid-November usually melts off, even in the U.P.

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      As SlimJim pointed out, they have no snow yet. Current November 2012 snowfall so far:

      Petoskey: 0
      Alpena: 0
      Sault Ste Marie: 0
      Gaylord: 1.3″

      1. Sharon L'Anse, MI says:

        We had about 5″ of snow in L’Anse, MI on November 13-14, 2012…but it has since melted away. Upper 50′s and dense fog for today.

  13. Storm waning says:

    Next Thursday, next Thursday – just around the corner – big change

  14. INDY says:

    Anytime Bill u want to burn one out at thee YARDofBRICKS food sprites and lights we will call our picnic party it will be!!!! Get ready for a turkey day snow storm 4-8 inches coming lake effect snow warningstirkey and thee Lions for West Michigan!!Getting plans out for the 11th xmas drink Bill I hope u can stop in this year!! BOOTS HATS AND TURKEY STAY TUNED INDDYY….

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      INDY it’s supposed to be 60 on Thursday not snow but I wish!

    2. Jack says:

      CUE : Glenn Frey – Party Town – YouTube

      ► 3:09► 3:09
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    3. Jack says:

      SPIN: INDY !!!!!…. ;-) Glenn Frey(PartyTown) – YouTube

      ► 2:58► 2:58
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQm-9g8hiHc

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It was another GREAT day on the golf course. I will golfing again tomorrow. No snowstorms in sight!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        That is PERFECT! :) The only problem is you don’t get much roll. I don’t mind playing when it cold, however if we ever get decent any snow I will switch to skiing!

  16. Mindy says:

    My NOAA Weather ALARM has went off 5 times in the last 15 min. Says unrecognized Statement !!! Never had that happen before? checked the Radar to see if a THUNDERSTORM POPED UP !!!!! NOT !!!!!!

    1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Might be some sort of test feature that they have to make sure the ‘Urgent Messaging System’ is working proerly! This is probably the best time of year to do so, so that people don’t blow real ones off as false alarms!

  17. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I think that I will start to make plans to head up North for some x-country skiing in December. I sure don’t see much snow for us in December. The only question is how far North will I need travel to find some good skiing. I may need to go all the up to Stokley Creek in Canada!!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      My dad goes up there a couple times a year. Always plenty of snow up there.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes, it is usually FANTASTIC up there with some great skiing. So I will keep golfing down here and then head North to find some REAL WINTER and SNOW!!!!!

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      You’ll be eating those words RJ. It’s coming!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Really, I see a little cold air and ZERO snowstorms in the near future!

  18. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Bill and others I’m doing a project to show the improvements on advance tornado warnings and how it directly effects the fatalities of the tornadoes any good litature out there

    1. Cort S. says:

      You can find a lot of scientific studies at http://journals.ametsoc.org/

      Do an Advanced Search (upper-right corner of the page), and you’ll probably come up with what you’re looking for. Most of these articles should be free for you to access, though some of the most recent ones may be open only to AMS members or journal subscribers. Let me know if you have any trouble.

      1. bnoppe(Albion says:

        Thanks

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      https://www.google.com/search?q=tornado+warnings+save+lives&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

      You can just do a graph of tornado fatalities over the last 100 years and see that despite 4 times the population and so much more of the U.S. inhabited than back then, tornado deaths have been decreasing. The Joplin tornado (where too many people did not take proper safety measures) was the first tornado since 1953 to have over 100 fatalities.

  19. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    The COLD train is gonna hit next week folks ! Get ready ! Old man winter is gonna take a hold of Michigan soon !!

  20. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Who wants to put odds on a white Christmas yet, so should we wait till at least December? My current odds are less than 25%.

    1. PAUL says:

      80% percent chance of a white Christmas.
      Winter will ne here soon

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Stitistically GR’s average is about 70%. With a “white Christmas” defined as at least 1″ of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on 12/25.

      This year I’d put our chances higher than that.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        That’s a good secured safe bet there Jack.

  21. arcturus says:

    Just checked the 2 month model on my crystal ball … it’s going to rain. Hey, it’s probably just as good as those 7 day advanced forecasts that go OMG BIG SNOW … wait hmmm, well maybe a dusting … well, further north may see something … no, looks like the UP might get it now … ooops, now its Northern Canada. Bring out the suntan oil.

  22. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Your crystal ball says doom and gloom for as far as the eye can see. Thank you “I don’t care generation” for that.

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