Cool Start to the WeekNovember 25th, 2012 at 5:31 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Pic. shows snow on the ground Sunday at Houghton Lake. Click the pic. to enlarge. Here’s snowfall totals from N. Lower Michigan (over 15″ fell at Kalkaska!) and the U.P. We’ll have a cool start to the week, then a significant warm-up. Take a look at the CFS model for Dec. 20-30. Relative to average, the models are forecasting cool in the East and mild in the West. It’s a month off, but it’s worth looking at. Through Sunday, the average temperature for November is exactly average and the average temperature since August 1 has been pretty much exactly average in W. Michigan. The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation remain negative (which often means cool weather in the Eastern U.S., much of Europe and Eastern China). Here’s snow cover in N. America. Canada is now about 90% snow covered, Lake Winnipeg is pretty much ice-covered, and Hudson Bay is freezing over.
Today (Mon.) will be a cool day. I can’t rule out a snowflake, but pretty much trace amounts. Look for temperatures to hold in the 30s. We have a chance of a little light snow or flurries Tuesday PM to Wednesday, then warmer air builds in for next weekend. The NAM (caribou) pretty much has us dry thru Weds. with highs in the mid 30s Monday and Tuesday and low 40s on Weds. The GFS has mid-upper 30s Mon. – Weds. with rain showers/drizzle for Friday – Sunday and temps. in the low 50s Sat. and mid 50s on Sunday. It keeps us relatively mild thru the first week of December and then we get colder and pick up snow in the 2nd week of December. The European model has 1/4″ of snow for G.R. Tues. night and 0.34″ of rain mainly next Saturday night with highs in the low 50s Saturday and Sunday. Ski Brule has been open for a week in the U.P. Crystal Mt., Boyne Highlands and Boyne Mt. hope to open for next weekend (though the forecast for next weekend isn’t the best). Cannonsburg is shooting for Dec. 9.