Holland Parade Was Tonight

November 27th, 2012 at 2:49 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Click the pic. to enlarge.  Tonight is the Parade of Lights in Holland at 6:30 PM.   The weather should be cool and it should be a great parade.  If by chance you get a break in the clouds this Tues.  AM, look for Venus and Saturn snuggled real close together.  Here’s a picture.  There is a weak, penumbral lunar eclipse that you can glimpse if we get a break in the clouds Weds. early AM as the moon sets in the west.  The moon will be right next to Jupiter on the evening of the 28thThe full moon on the 28th is called the “Beaver Moon”.  Here’s when you can see the International Space Station fly overhead.

The afternoon weather data:  The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. highs of 39 Weds, 48 Thurs., and 53 on Friday (it could only get that warm on Fri. if the warm front gets thru and that’s pretty iffy).  G.R. stays dry with an inch of snow tonight up toward Cadillac and points north tonight…guess there could be a trace north of G.R. The GFS is similar…dry until early Friday AM with highs of 37 on Weds. and 42 on Thursday, with a big warm-up and temperatures in the 50s early next week (the GFS takes G.R. t0 57 Monday evening/night).  The GFS gives G.R. 0.14″ of probably cold rain on Friday.  The European gives G.R. just 0.01″ Friday, then half an inch of rain mainly Sat. night…with showers thru Monday and temperatures in the upper 50s Monday night.   There’s no sign of any significant snow in the next week.   The GFS model for early December has much warmer than average temperatures over much of the Lower 48 states and the Arctic with colder than average temperatures across Western Canada, Alaska and Siberia.  CFS says colder and snowier as we approach Christmas.

Snowcover Tues. AM:  1″ Scottville…3″ Houghton Lake, Traverse City…5″ Newberry…6″ Gaylord, Kalkaska, Marquette…7″ Ironwood…9″ Munising…10″ Sault Ste. Marie…13″ Grand Marais and Twin Lakes.  Here’s radar of the East Coast storm.  This is the 2nd snowstorm of the month (plus Sandy) for much of this area.  Today’s storm is not a big one…the most snow in Pennsylvania as of 1 PM was 4.3″.

105 Responses to “Holland Parade Was Tonight”

  1. Jack says:

    Good Morning BILL : A Little Parade Music…Coming YourWay…To Start The Day!! Cue: The Music Man “Seventy-Six Trombones” (finale) + lyrics link …

    ► 2:59► 2:59
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODu888i14-I

  2. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

    Jack your killing us with all of the links. It takes forever to sit through all of those songs. I don’t like this band or the song but the song and the band name are fitting here, CUE: http://youtu.be/wCiqL5wtNTs

    p.s. Pay speacial attention to my blog handle Jack.

    1. Jack says:

      Wbwtsbc: Ya, ain’t Dead Yet.!! I will Link what I want….When I want To.. Cue: The Animals – It’s My Life – YouTube

      ► 4:09► 4:09
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNzmrEgz_GI

  3. michael g (SE GR) says:

    CFS snowcover forecast for Christmas…

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273293467197796352/photo/1

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I LIKE the one that’s showing a foot of snow….LOL!! THAT would get me in the Christmas Spirit!! (Yeah – I realize that most of the world doesn’t have snow on Christmas – but I’m a Michigan girl. Went to Hawaii the day after Christmas one year – everything seemed so bizarre…LOL!! “Santa riding a porpoise???”

  4. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    It seems like its going to be almost impossible to break out of this mild weather. Hard to believe we can go from the temps we are having now, and doing a complete flip flop, and getting into a cold and snowy pattern.
    Losing hope for “real” winter

    1. Irish coffee says:

      KEV, NEVER lose HOPE!…like root beer, it FLOATS! Try having your potato farm go up in emerald smoke! Like me Uncle Seamus use to say-”ya kin git ta mist a’way fro yer guinness, but ye no kin git ta guinness a’way fro me mis-TER”….or something or other like that :)
      Seriously, you could have been the homeowner to have a deer break through your door and ‘ram’sack your house like a good neighbor did up in Saugatuck last week! WOWSERS.
      UPDATED forecast for all of Saugatuck and vicinty:
      “Vanilla sky turns to ebony and unleashes millions of large,ivory frosted flakes(non-unionized) w/ a 100% chc of snowboarders,skiiers,plow-operators,snowmobilers and school-children everywhere caroling and dancing w/ JOY!(or at least her twin sis + BFF – Bliss AND Ecstasy;)

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        LOL!! I like that forecast!!

  5. DerekS says:

    Sounds like last year!

  6. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Here’s an awesome read that really goes into why the models have been so wrong – especially lately (hint: Bering Sea Omega Ridge). Until this blocking moves, there will be no long-term pattern changes.

    “There is simply no mechanism for delivering cold air into the country east the rocky mountains during the first week or two weeks of December… and possibly throughout most of the month.”

    http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/11/ao-arctic-oscillation-about-to-turn-strongly-negative-cold-dec-on-the-way/

    1. Irish coffee says:

      …and then there was this pre-season poll that had FIGHTING IRISH getting blocked out of BCS POST-SEASON GAME & lookey here how those experts done verified! ND gots the mechanism to drive and deliver a CHAMPIONSHIP as the T.E.O index goes OFF THE CHARTS POSITIVE! Whether GA, or BAMA….makes NO diff. Opponent will not have a Bering on the out-come heck or highwater.Rex and friends, pHI BETA SIGMA CHI CAN CHEER-I PI CK their noses to win w/crimson sorority sisters like oMega Ryan and Delta Burke- GO IRISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Brad says:

        Um, the preseason polls do not “block” teams from the post-season. They predict where teams will finish at the end of the season. Nevertheless, it was fun to see ND win, and I write that as a UM fan.

        1. Irish coffee says:

          Right you are, Brad!I only used “block” term to keep it relevant (to wx:)sorta…i am Maize AND Blue FAN TOO-
          but growing up in my house had pre-requisite of rooting for Irish(hint: my last name is exactly the same as the Prof./ nemesis of Sherlock Holmes).PEACE, sir

        2. Brad says:

          Ha ha, I should have figured that out after reading the rest of the post!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Great post and this confirms exactly what I have been saying for the last 2 weeks.

  7. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Looks like northern lights may be visible tonight on the horizon:

    http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthPolar/

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Thanks! I’ll take a good hard look tonight – just in case they venture farther south than proposed :-) I have 2-1/2 miles of clear view to the north horizon.

  8. Irish coffee says:

    Don’t look now…but 12z GFS has some Irish Christmas magic @ 228 w/ crosspolar flow and 967mb low 42 mi. sse of Ft Wayne crawling at 1 mph through hr 252!…ok, so 12GFS is only out to 156hr.;but i did say don’t look- and who knows…it IS the GFS AFTERALL!

  9. arcturus says:

    ‘CFS says coldier and snowier’ – funny, at one time this was the accepted norm considering the date, but now that it’s becoming less wintery it has become ‘news’ apparently (the broadcaster of the source being a known global warming skeptic). Proof? Check out the ‘AGW’ posts and hardly a word about this weekend’s huge warm up. Then again, when something becomes normal (warmth) it becomes less of a news item.

  10. arcturus says:

    So that there’s no confusion, by broadcaster I mean BigJoe.

  11. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z GFS continues to show the same pattern…brief warm ups with rain, followed by colder, but not snowier, periods.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      ….patience, my friend ..PATIENCE! Wait until 0z GFS/ECMWF runs tonight- you might be in for quite the surprise!(HINT:much colder circa 12-12-12

      1. fixxxer says:

        Yeah becuase your soo right all the time irish.

        1. Irish coffee says:

          …..compared to YOU maybe! your= you’re =fixxxed!
          & Cheers Wyoming brother from another non-Irish mother;)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      That’s exactly how it feels!

  12. Irish coffee says:

    John Dee, per his forecast text, thinks he’ll only lose 4-7″ this weekend into early next week….Dear John- it’s LES, IF you don’t lose ALL of your snow w/ temps. pushing 50 + rain.. by next Tue., i will drive to Twin Lakes and pin a BENJAMIN to your ALcam!
    ps- Sierra’s look to get 10-15 FEET!!

    1. motox says:

      Irish He is one of the best forecasters in the business. so I would get that Benjamin ready and plan out your 11hr drive!

      1. Irish coffee says:

        Dear motox…as an avid snowmobiler- it’s a win-win for me either way! cheers!

        1. Motox says:

          Me too! I noticed he’s still holding onto a better forecast so I hope he’s right! Cheers!

    2. Irish coffee says:

      I dunno motox- progs show nearly 72 hours of temps abv freezing starting Sat. for Keweenaw- throw in a little rain + 850′s peaking near +10…surface temps. mid-upper 40′s on Mon.I’ve seen more than 4-7″ LES melt in LESS time given aforementioned conditions;just sayin! ;)

  13. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    European model out to 10 days showing much above normal temps.

    1. Brad says:

      Ho-hum! December is going to be warm, warm, warm. And to think, a few days ago Kyle Underwood said “it’s going to feel like December” this weekend…forecast the facts, people!

      1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

        Get real Brad. You’re acting like the meteorologists are lying with malice aforethought.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Garbage in garbage out!

    2. Jacob G says:

      It does look like we are going to have a brief warm up starting Saturday until mid week next week. I think I heard last nights run of the Euro weeklies showed a more favorable winter like setup coming shortly after this brief warm up. The cold and snow is building rapidly in Canada and I would suspect as the jet stream will strengthen over time we will get longer waves coming through forcing the cold air south. I know to some it feels like last winter but the setups are not the same at all when you look at the indices, SST, monthly trends and historical stats. Nothing is a given but we are not looking at a repeat from last year in my opinion.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        I think we will have had MORE snow last year in mid-December than this year.

        And it looks like December 2012 may see more 50′s in GR than last year.

        The same ridge and blocking are in place as were in place last year. It just depends how long it lasts this time.

        1. Jacob G says:

          Here are some stats to chew on. You are probably right I could only find 3 days last December where temps at GRR where above 50. I think we will top that this December.

          Grand Rapids Area (ThreadEx Station)
          Monthly Totals/Averages
          Snowfall (inches)
          Years: 2011-2012

          Season Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season
          2011-2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.5 27.0 16.2 2.8 0.0

          Temps 2011/2012/Avg (1981-2010)
          Aug 71.8/70.8/70.8
          Sept 61.9/63.0/62.8
          Oct 52.5/50.8/51.0
          Nov 43.7/40.8/40.1
          Dec 35.0/NA/29.2

          Precip 2011/2012/Avg (1981-2010)
          Aug 4.42/3.34/3.59
          Sept 2.23/1.97/4.28
          Oct 3.13/6.32/3.26
          Nov 2.50/.49/3.59
          Dec 2.59/NA/2.50

          With help of October Precip is about the same compared to last year however trends showing cooler temps for GRR heading into meteorological winter compared to last years setup and slightly below the last 30 year normal. However just to clarify you can still get above average snowfall with less overall precipitation based on higher snowfall ratio’s when it is colder.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          We’ve made 50 degrees 26 times in the last 11 years in G.R. The last 60 in December was 2008. Twenty of 31 days in December have record high temps. in the 60s.

  14. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    1. No snowstorms in sight.
    2. No cold air in sight.
    3. All long range models and forecasts are worthless and usually wrong, especially when trying to predict winter weather.
    4. Garbage in – garbage out – this is a good way to describe long range models and ensembles.
    5. There are no indications of cold and snow in the near or mid range future.
    6. This could be another total bust of a winter.
    7. We are headed for a long stretch of above average temperatures.
    8. This is starting to look just like last year – talk of cold and snow in the long range that NEVER happens!
    9. Golfing looks GREAT for this weekend and all of next week!
    10. Does anyone really believe the models and HYPE that are referring to cold and snow around 12-20 through 12-30? What a joke!!! Totally outrageous!

    1. Irish coffee says:

      “9.Golfing looks GREAT …and all of next week!” Rocky,i’ll meet you next Wed. @ 11am at the course of your choosing…..maybe the girls from ’8 West’ could join us and film you searching the ruff for a red titleist buried in snow w/a side of 25mph winds ;)

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        18Z is looking interesting for the middle of next week.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          By tomorrow this will show temps in the 40′s with rain!!!!!!!!

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Sounds good 11:00 AM works for me. How about Scott Lake? See if the 8 West girls are up for it!!

        1. Irish coffee says:

          COOL! (but does Bobick’s even sell pumps w/ golf cleats anymore?)

  15. TACO BOY says:

    This blog is a trip I read a lot of Fixxxer on it…..Snow is good for the state of Michigan u guys understand that right?

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      We NEED the snow bad!!

  16. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I see there is now a chance of reaching 60 next week with a chance of thunder.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=afd&issuedby=grr

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=dtx&product=afd&issuedby=dtx

    While not real common 60′s in December do happen from time to time but it still a rather rare event (if it happens)
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Forecast from WXYZ out of Detroit says 60 on Tuesday now

    2. Brad says:

      In the same year: 80s and a couple 90s in March, 100s in summer, and now 60+ in December!

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I saw one 90 in March and I would have liked to see that station calibrated to verify that reading. We had 2 days that reached 100 in July. In July 1936 we had a whole week with an average high of 102.7 (seven consecutive days with highs of 99 to 108). We hit 100 twelve times in the 1930s and we’ve only hit 100 only 3 times since 1964. And we haven’t made 60 yet (it’s still Nov. 27). It was 69 on Dec. 5, 2001. We had 5 days with high temperatures between 61 and 67 in Dec. 1982 and the planet somehow survived. The warmest Decembers in G.R. have been: 1) 1889 2) 1923 3) 1982 4) 1931

        1. Brad says:

          When did we have 80s in March, 100s in July, and mid-upper 60s in late November and 60s in December?

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          1895 in G.R: 66 on 1/1, -16 on 2/5, 1 on 3/11, 0 on 3/14, 91-90-96 on 5/3-5, 30 on 5/20, 92,93,95 on 5/29-31, 96-98-95 on 6/9-11, 90 on 9/20, 23 on 10/22 – all records.

          And…we have not been in the mid-upper 60s this late November. We were 62 on Thanksgiving Day (low 60s). And we have not made 60 in December 2012.

  17. bluewind says:

    Every time bill says we have seen the last of the warm weather we get more.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Not just Bill, it is all of the other people that keep trying to make predictions based on long range garbage models!

  18. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Five afternoons in a row with temps in the low to mid 30′s (normal highs 42-43). If everyone considers this a “warm” pattern, I’d love to see it get “cold” later in December or January.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I’s love to see it cold also, however there are absolutely no signs of any cold weather on the horizon. Better get used to temps in the 30′s and 40′s most of this winter!

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Only good thing if that were to happen is we wouldn’t have to drive in the bad road conditions. Ever since 2005 when I wrapped my suv around a tree, due to black ice, I have been terrified to drive in the snow and ice.

    2. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Michael 30′s this time of year are actually quite common and last November I believe there were a few afternoons with highs only in the 30′s and it was a mild winter so 30′s have nothing to do with this writer it is what NAO winter it will be right now it looks to be more of a positive NAO winter meaning dry and mild for you Michigan olks enjoy Michael you will not get a snowy winter o need to get hyped up o it ;)

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Once again, if you want to be taken seriously, please learn how to spell, and use punctuations correctly.

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get out and enjoy this nice warm fall weather. This weekend should be great. Don’t worry about all of the mention of rain. It will be very scattered and light. Should be great for golfing and yard work!! Next week looks warm also. The beat goes on and on and on!!!!!!!!!!!! Winter lovers are in trouble.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      I don’t golf, and my yard work was wrapped up two weeks ago. Bring on the snow.

  20. INDY says:

    Again White Wash Coming For Rocky Rockford In December!!! INDYY..

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Not this December. We will have above average temperatures and well below average snowfall this December. You know what they say maybe next year?

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        And you know how everyone keeps saying that each year maybe next year what happens nothing I am starting to see signs of a positive NAO winter for you guys looks like another dry and mild winter have fun up there ;)

  21. kevin. w says:

    Based on what I’m looking at in the longer range (if its worth anything) is that the warmth is going to stay for at least two more weeks maybe three. The AO, NAO are going into the positive territory and will remain there til at least mid December. We have a persistent Gulf of Alaska low pushing milder weather into the U.S. which doesn’t show any signs to breakdown til mid month and thats an if. There is also a stubborn high parked over northeast Russia which is also giving our mild but more importantly the dry pattern. Until these two can break down and disappear then you can expect the same ole’ dry mild pattern. If (IF) for some reason this pattern doesn’t break down through the whole winter then were in for some major problem like severe drought and probably a hell of summer, like living hell. We need the moisture so I’m hoping this pattern breaks and we get blizzard after blizzard and stay around 0 through the whole winter and that would be the kinda of winter I could live with. But until then Rocky enjoy your golfing and just get out and enjoy what we have in the great outdoors of “pure Michigan”. :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Good analysis and I am glad that you added the big what “If” because there are no indication that this current pattern will be changing at all. Let’s not forget the following predictions that we have heard from a lot of experts already this season.
      1. Coldest November since 2002? NO
      2. Big storm and very cold air will hit on 11-28. NO!
      3. Winter is here – snow on the way. NO
      4. Cold and snow starting in the beginning of December. NO
      5. Very cold arctic air to arrive around December 10th?
      6. Expect near to above average snowfall and near to below normal temperatures this winter?

      How have all of these predictions worked out so far? And now the latest fantasy land predictions are the ones for December 20th through the 30th? Crazy!

      1. John (Holland) says:

        The people predicting a hard winter have as much data as you do. We’ll just have to see what happens. No sense wishcasting either way.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        This will be the coolest November since 2008 and the 3rd or 4th coolest since 2002. Go to this thread: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2012/11/01/october-temperatures-and-rainfall/ I wrote: “…this will certainly be the coolest November since 2008 and possibly 2002.” I think that was a pretty good forecast.

        1. Brad says:

          Considering we were +3.7 in 2011, +3.4 in 2010, and +5.7 in 2009…

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Looks like global cooling to me…

  22. INDY says:

    We are still verry dry in West Michigan we need good snow pack this winter !!! INDYY..

    1. fixxxer says:

      Were not dry at all. Id say aug-oct was very wet.

      1. John (Holland) says:

        http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?MI,MW

        After a very dry summer, 70% of the state is back at average moisture conditions. 30% is still abnormally dry. It would not hurt anything to have an extra-snowy winter.

  23. Nathan says:

    Another old and gloomy day for tomorrow… We all have to enjoy this final shot of warm air before the winter finally starts to kick into action!

    1. Nathan says:

      And Bill, are you going to the Ada parade this Saturday?

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I hadn’t planned on it. I’m reading at the Barnes and Nobel at 3 PM Sat. Then I have to work on Sunday the 2nd.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Final shot of warm air? Would like to place any wagers on that statement? We may be headed for another bust of a winter.

  24. fixxxer says:

    Im seeing we could be pushing 60 by monday. Two mild winters would be awesome.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, fixxxer we may be heading to your kind of winter again this year only with less snow!

  25. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Winter for you Michigan folks will be another mild and dry one enjoy it I see Florida winters in your future as it keeps getting warmer and warmer with lesser and lesser sow each year welcome global warming!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      lesser and lesser sow is all right with me, as long as we’re not bacon in the summer heat!

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        Meant snow lol! But yes I think less snow for you Michigan folks wold be much appreciated by many people in the state less shoveling= less work lol!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Ann Arbor had the snowiest winter recorded 2 or 3 years ago…

        2. bobcat says:

          meant ‘would’? You have so much to say…

  26. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    @ Michael you seem to be the only one left with hope for a hard winter this year everyone else has lost faith and are going to wait to see what type of winter it is going to be!

  27. Bnoppe says:

    Something will give, This is not Offical but I do believe that well see one good snow storm before the end of the month but for the most part it will be dry and boring

    1. Bnoppe says:

      Of December

    2. Brad says:

      More 80s in March 2013?

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Too early to tell. We had back-to-back warm-ups in March 1945-46.

  28. sb(anchorage) says:

    We’re getting low temps (zero degrees at my house) but very little snowfall, so the frost is going deep in the ground.

  29. DF (SE Mich) says:

    18 degrees at Ann Arbor airport already! I think it is correct. Cold over here.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Down to 15 at 10pm… The nights sure have been colder than normal this month.

  30. Bnoppe says:

    I have a ? What is “real Artic air” because in my book 25 degrees is cold

  31. Skot says:

    SHHHsssssssss…… fixxer and ALL the OTHER goons on here are “set ups” by the guys that do the blog at WOOD.

  32. James in hastings says:

    Whats up with the crazy huge ring around the moon?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      That’s caused by high, thin clouds that bend some of the moonlight. The ring was looking good for a couple hours here downtown.

  33. bodawg says:

    Nice halo around the moon tonight.

  34. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    I LOVE HEAT!!! :)
    Hurry April!

  35. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Well, for the (i don’t know how many consecutive falls it has been), my family in PA has received their first good snowfall before us……I can’t believe it looks like we’re going well into December AGAIN for the first snow. Urgh

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Take it for what it is. I’ve concluded it is not in our hands as to what will, or will not happen. Mother nature is still a mad scientist.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        :) it’s true. I think I have Seasonal affective disorder. This brown and gray outside with no snow is just dreary/dark.

    2. Katie in Kentwood says:

      It snowed in Kentwood a few days ago, there was a nice dusting on the ground that stuck around for several hours.

  36. Katie in Kentwood says:

    For those complaining about it being too warm (30′s-40′s is warm?)…it’s not even winter yet. Give it time….jeez.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Yeah, it has been low 30s for highs the past couple days…just no snow!

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