A Little Sunshine

November 28th, 2012 at 2:07 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Check out the snowman here at Krupp’s Resort at Twin Lakes in the U.P.  That’s over a foot of snow, an afternoon temperature Tuesday of 20 degrees and you can see the lake is freezing over.  After a few overnight snow showers and flurries (looks like an inch of new snow in many areas north of I-96), we should see a little sunshine today (Weds.) and Thurs.  There was a nice halo around the moon for a few hours last night, before the clouds thickened up.  We’ll be in the mid-upper 30s during the day today.  The overnight NAM (Caribou) model gives G.R. a high of 39 today, 47 tomorrow and 44 on Friday with generally dry conditions.   The GFS gives G.R. 0.05″ of what could be a mix of precipitation Friday AM with temperatures of 32-35 (which means main roads would just be wet, even if we got snow).   For high temperatures starting with Weds., the GFS has 38,43,38,47,54,56, with the cold front coming thru about early afternoon Tues.   The model gives us 0.2″ of rain mainly Sat. night then more rain with the front on Tuesday and a windy, cold day with snow showers next Weds.  The European gives G.R. 0.07″ of precipitation Friday AM (light rain or a mix) with temps. also of 32-36 (wet roads).  It has quite (relatively) warm air over us with temperatures in the low-mid 50s from Sat. PM until the front comes thru Tues. around noon.  The European has our temperature reaching 60 on Monday.  The last time we reached 60 in December was in 2008.  The warmest day ever in Dec. was 12/5/2001 with a high of 69.  In Dec. 1982 we had five days with highs from 61 to 67.  The warmest Dec. in G.R. was 1889, followed by 1923, 1982 and 1931.

55 Responses to “A Little Sunshine”

  1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Check out the snow in Hart tfrom this snow band moving south! Just starting to get some flakes here…

    http://www.oceanaheraldjournal.com/webcam/downtown.php

  2. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Sure would like to see one of those thermometers from 1889.
    I’m sure they were super accurate!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Yes, mercury was much more accurate =)

  3. Brenda says:

    2001 had a warm Thanksgiving Day, too. We sat outside and enjoyed it to the fullest : )

  4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Beautiful moon this morning.

  5. Nathan says:

    Another morning with snow on the ground!

  6. Yup (Grandville) says:

    Salt on the roads today, yet people are still driving like twits. Ahhhh, Pure Michigan! :)

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Pure Michigan: Winter Virgins =)
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsR0DeY7f1g

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Had to laugh at that one!

      2. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Well played sir :)

  7. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Sure has more snow last night than the NWS was forecasting have about .45″ on the ground

  8. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

    at this rate, we’ll have weather like this in january
    http://phippstrips.com/images/michigan_weather.jpg

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Looks AWESOME to me!!

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looking out the window it look like we had a heavy snow fall last night. Yes a good trace of snow ever where. Well at least the ones who said no snow this winter were already proven wrong! I know I have said this before but I will repeat myself. I would not mind it if the whole winter was like this. (I seriously doubt it will I am sure we will see a good bit of cold and snow at some point this winter)
    32 here with that trace of snow and still cloudy but with some blue sky showing thru the clouds.
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      For kicks, I wonder what the official seasonal snowfall total for GR is so far… ha

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Before last nights snow fall it was 0.2″ I am not sure how much snow fall was recorded at the airport last night, and we still have a shot of more snow on Friday. But it looks like we may have a hard time of braking the 0.7″ of last November (unless the official reading was over .5 overnight or if we get that much on Friday)
        SlimJim

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          BTW it should also be noted this so far has been one of the dryer Novembers as well.
          SlimJim

        2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Thanks for the info! I was just curious!

  10. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Lots of warm followed by a brief cold stint followed by more warm:

    “Slightly cooler weather returns Tuesday, but temperatures recover into the 40s and 50s again by late next week as Pacific air continues to overwhelm the Lower 48.”

    Hoping for 60 here on Tuesday! Get the bike and the golf clubs back out…

  11. Irish coffee says:

    FWIW: South Bend ,IN about to break it’s LONGEST stretch between measurable snowfalls(record of 272 days set in 1948) currently at 267days.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      That first model looks like 12 inches or so. I’ll take that.

    2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Do you mean December 28 here’s o such thing as December 38 lol

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        *no

    3. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      My favorite from Bastardi was his infamous 2010 prediction in which he said the next couple winters were going to be brutally cold and snowy for the midwest, rivaling the winters of the 1970′s.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        That was for 2012,13,14.

        1. fixxxer says:

          hey what does big joe.b say about the possibility of hitting 60 next week? ;)

      2. Brad says:

        Wasn’t Bill discussing the 1970s winters earlier this year and saying this might be an “analog year?”

        1. Brad says:

          Here’s Bill’s June post. I love it- July “significantly cooler” than July 2011 and July 2010, and a cold and snowy November.

          From Joe Bastardi…check out the similarity of the CFS winter forecast to the temperature anomaly map for the winter of 1976-77. The winter of 1976-77 ties 1903-04 for coldest winter ever in G.R. Here’s more on the winter of ’76-’77. We had a long and strong La Nina from 1973-early 1976, which morphed into a weak-moderate El Nino by the fall of 1976. Here in Grand Rapids, the number of 90-degree days in summer dropped from 21 in 1976 to 11 in 1977 to 8 in 1978 to 5 in 1979. Remember, I wrote before about how we had significant spring “heat waves” in 1976, 1977 and 1978. We had fourteen 90-degree days in 2011. It’s way too early to say what will happen this winter, but looking at what I see here, you’d expect July to be significantly cooler than the last two Julys (which were 4.3 and 4.1 deg. warmer than average) and that we can expect snow and cold in November.

        2. Jacob G says:

          No doubt July was a blow torch month. We had 2 100 degree days and 18 90 degree days. July 2012 alone had more 90 degree days then all of 2011. Pretty hard to predict that ahead of time by any standards. However it has happened before and will happen again just like the winters from the late 70′s.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          November is going to turn out slightly cooler than average. Through Nov. 28, G.R. is 0.5 degree cooler than average and Kalamazoo is 1.6 degrees cooler than average this month. We haven’t missed the snow by much. The weather station 11 miles SE of Kalkaska has had over 10″ this month. In the U.P., Herman has had 27.8″ and Twin Lakes total for Oct. – Nov. as of 11/28 is 35″. Nearly 90% of Canada has snow on the ground. Also, an analog year has significant similarity to this year. That does NOT mean the weather will be the same this year as that year, only that there are similarities. There will be cold air in Canada this late fall/winter. There is a weak El Nino to La Nada and a cold PDO. However, we need more blocking over NE Canada to force the cold air south into the Lower 48.

      3. John (Holland) says:

        It’s Bastardi’s twitter account, but the map is the CFS.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Bastardi is the biggest cold weather HYPE machine on the face of the Earth. He is to the point of being ridiculous!

      4. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Or how about his fall/winter forecast for this year about cold and snow for the midwest coming hard and early for 2012?

        I like Bastardi a lot, but those kind of long-term predictions are just silly, especially when you can’t get anywhere close to predicting what will happen in the next few months.

        And being a math guy, I know the odds are extraordinarily slim that a certain month this year will be warmer or cooler if you’re comparing it to an extremely below or above average month. That’s just a silly math trick and not really a prediction at all.

        1. fixxxer says:

          joe.b is an idiot.

  12. fixxxer says:

    would be nice to just have a week of sunshine, is that too much to ask? since there doesn’t appear to be any big snow events coming anyways.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The GFS is hinting about them in a couple weekends…

      1. fixxxer says:

        i really don’t believe anything they say. it’s not like im wishing for snow or anything.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Fantasy land!

  13. Rumrunner says:

    I agree with you Fix. It made my face twitch, but I agree with you….

    1. fixxxer says:

      sun does a body good. the clouds and cold are just depressing. another reason i dislike this time of year.

      1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

        I actually like clouds this time of year because the sun is way too bright this time of year…

  14. Dan says:

    What are the recent trends when we have unseasonable warmth and cold spells as Winter gets started? I see, we are headed for a high of 60 on December 2nd.
    I bet, a week or two later we will get some nice LES, followed by the Siberian Express.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Ya right, extremely unlikely!

    2. fixxxer says:

      Ill laugh hard if we have a repeat of last winter.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Get ready to laugh, because this could be even worse than last winter!

        1. fixxxer says:

          Im always laughing hard when i come here.

  15. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Skilling‏@Skilling

    Wondering about snow? This AM’s Nat’l Wx Svc GFS model fcst run is 9th of the past 11 to suggest sticking snow here in the 8-14 day period.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      That looks like a better then average chance of snow. But then it has to verifiy first.
      SlimJim

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Not so fast! The average high temp during this time frame is above freezing, so it could be raining! Also every long range forecast trying to predict cold and snow has been WRONG all season long and for that matter last winter it was wrong about 95% of the time. Not very good odds. I put the chances at around 2.5%!! And that is on the high side :)

    3. fixxxer says:

      Did joe.b make that?

  16. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Did I hear that right… FOX17 says there is a chance for a thunderstorm next week? Huh…

    Steelie

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Not a surprise. We will be seeing a lot of above average temperatures during the month of December with rain so a few thunderstorms could pop up!!

  17. GunLakeDeb says:

    I remember well the first part of Dec 2001 – we were having a new roof installed, and the guys were working in T-shirts!!!!

    Gun Lake is trying to freeze over – yesterday and this morning, the west side was skimmed over with ice; and it was already freezing tonight as I drove home from work. All we need is 2″ of ice and the ice boaters will be here, flying across the lake!!!!

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