Full Moon

November 28th, 2012 at 10:22 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   The full moon is shining through some high clouds.  The “star” near the moon is the planet Jupiter.  The pic. on the right is the moon and Jupiter to the upper left (from Jack Martin).  I managed to get to Allegan between the 6 PM and 10 PM newscasts to speak to the AWANA kids at First Baptist Church.  On the way back on route 222 you could see a couple of jet contrails on either side of the moon.  Temperatures this evening have fallen into the 20s in inland areas, while beach temperatures are in the low-mid 40s.

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222 Responses to “Full Moon”

  1. Jack says:

    Yup, Just Got Back Inside, After Taking Ahh Gander, at The Moon + Jupiter. Hence The Question… Why is it Called The Beaver Moon??

    1. Jack says:

      HENCE, The Answer : Two reasons are given for the coupling of the November moon with the flat-tailed aquatic animal: (a) November is a month when many hunters used to set leghold traps for beaver,[1] and (b) November is a month when many beaver families are especially active in rebuilding their beaver lodges and dams.[2] Much of the mammals’ building and repair work takes place by moonlight, because the beaver is primarily nocturnal. Both explanations implicate November’s position as the last full month before the coming of winter, as beaver (which do not hibernate) need to have ready access to food during the cold months, and need to grow an especially lush pelt of fur so as to be prepared. By the traditional valuation standards of the fur trade, a late-fall beaver pelt was worth more than a pelt harvested during other seasons of the year.

      1. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Gotta get my mind out of the gutter.

        1. Jack says:

          Yup, Yup !! I hate to admit it, But, My Gutter Mind Thought The Same Thing…Lol. LEAVE IT TO BEAVER !!!! ;-)

        2. Tim From Zeeland says:

          Full Moon and a Full ,,,,,,,,,, oh I best becarful. This needs to stay PG.. lol

        3. Yup (Grandville) says:

          ROFL….. we’re terrible.

        4. Jack says:

          Yup, Good OLE Beaver Cleaver !…. ;-)

  2. mr. negative says:

    Was just about to mention that the moon has a “travel” partner this evening.

  3. Steelie says:

    Good Day.



  4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    I won $30 from tonight’s jackpot lol I am surprised that no one won the 580 million jackpot!

    1. Cort S. says:

      Odd… I’m trying to figure out what combination of $(4, 7, 12, 14) prizes would get you $30.

      I guess [4, 12 (powerplay), and 14 (powerplay)] is the quickest way to do that.
      Or [4, 4, 4, 4, 14 (powerplay)].
      Or [4, 4, 4, 4, 7, 7].

      So you would have had to spend a minimum of $8 for those tickets, or a minimum of $11 or $14 for the other two ways of winning. Unless you were extremely lucky with your picks, you probably bought a lot of tickets. And you probably had a good amount of recurring numbers among your tickets. The chance of winning a $4 or $12 prize from randomly picked numbers is about 2.7%. The chance of winning a $7 or $14 prize is about 0.4%.

      Upload a picture of your tickets so we can share in your joy of winning.

      1. Rumrunner says:

        LOL. You are kind of a dick, without even trying. Can’t let a dude just be happy he won?

        1. Cort S. says:

          With all due respect to Jordan, he has had a history of making up stories on this blog before. But even if someone with no history were to claim they won $30, I would still be skeptical, simply because the statistics are so strongly against them. This is math, and math says they would have much less than a 0.01% chance of telling the truth, unless they are significantly in the red ink right now. I will apologize and be extremely happy for him if he can show us pictures of what extreme good luck looks like!

        2. Ryan says:

          Deb lies….

        3. Rumrunner says:

          Yeah, but you’re still kind of a dick. Trust me, we can smell our own.

        4. Rumrunner says:

          See, it’s the passive way you do it. Like a coward. If you think it’s bullsh@t, say it. Even though he is full of it, why is it that important for you to further his own self made humiliation?

        5. Cort S. says:

          Hmmm, I see where you’re coming from. I think my careful (or cowardly) approach may be due to both my scientific disposition and my words being tied to my real-life identity. Since I do not use a pseudonym on this blog, and people who know me read this blog, I don’t have the freedom that a lot of people have of being an unfiltered online jerk. I would define a coward a little differently: someone who uses a mask in order to remove the accountability that he would have for his own words. Granted, in some cases this is fine, like if your government would seek to kill you for what you said, but this blog ain’t that. It is an interesting, if volatile, hybrid of anonymity and… whatever word the English language has for the opposite of anonymity.

          If you want me to be more direct, I’ll try it out… I think you’re a sucker for believing him. (“Can’t let a dude just be happy he won?”)

          So, from one dick to another… handshake?

        6. Rumrunner says:

          LOL. Unfiltered online jerk. See? Can’t help it can you?

      2. Scott (west olive) says:

        I wouldn’t want to play poker with you. Lol. So how much did he spend to get the 30?

    2. Ryan says:

      you must’ve played in “Ann Harbor” to win that kind of money.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        I am not Deb please stop!!!!!! I did get that $30 and I was surprised my self but I am not Deb and if this keeps up I’m done with the blog!

        1. Cort S. says:

          How did you win the $30? How many tickets were winners, and how much did you win with each one? I wish I could have your luck.

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Just luck lol

        3. Cort S. says:

          You didn’t answer my questions or provide any proof. Show me your awesomeness, or else I mathematically obligated not to believe you.

  5. Jack says:

    Nice Pic. Mr. Jack Martin.. I especially Like the Bare branches In the Fore Ground.. Thanks for Sharing!, God Bless Ya !!

    1. Jack Martin - Fennville, Michigan says:

      Your Welcome. Both of these moon pictures are really great! Jupiter in the mix as well. Looking forward to some nice weather in the upcoming days, and some snows as the farmers will need it!

  6. kevin. w says:

    Nice pictures of the moon. I bet the CPC puts us in the below category for December temps. based on some of the models. I just don’t see much cold/snow coming til about Christmas and thats still and “if”.

  7. Dan says:

    Some of the most amazing things to look at are in space! What a great pic of the moon!
    Enjoy the coming Spring!

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Warm fronts, rain, almost 60 degrees… It’s going to feel like April

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Its been that warm in December (with rain) in the past so while not an ever year occurrence its not all that rare.

        1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          15-20 degrees above average for consecutive days in December is pretty rare but, yes, it’s certainly happened before.

          With that said, when was the last time we saw a high 15-20 degrees BELOW average in GR??

          It seems like we get a couple on the above average side every month, but I can’t recall the opposite happening much at all lately.

        2. Brad says:


        3. Brad says:

          The trend lately seems to be “low highs” in late spring/early summer, when low pressure systems get “cut off” and settle over the region. My question is, where are the record lows in winter?

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s where you can see global record highs and lows: http://coolwx.com/record/ Much of the world is chillin’ right now: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2012/11/29/blizzard-in-japan/

          Since August 1 (four months) – the average temperature for Grand Rapids has been exactly average! Regarding high temperatures well below average…Nov. 13 was 11 below average, Nov. 5 was 12 below average, Oct. 30 was 14 below average and August 10 was 19 below average. The high of 54 on June 1 was 21 degrees colder than average and tied for 6th coolest June day ever in G.R.

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looks like its going to be a nice and sunny November day here today the temp here is already up to 35 so the 40′s look good for today.
    Here is something to think about….this month has so far been not only been the driest month of this year (.49″ at the airport .44″ at my house) but it also has been the driest month in GR sense June of 1988 (0.25″) and we may brake the March 2001 amount of 0.54″ unless we get over 0.05″ on Friday. So its been one dry month.

    1. Brad says:

      This drought picture ain’t pretty: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

      Last year, I correctly predicted we would bake after March’s incredible heat. I suspect next year will be another scorcher- watch out if the jet stream folds again in early spring and we experience another ridiculously early spring, followed by frosts and crop losses. It’s going to get harder and harder to grow food.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Another dust bowl? We’re already struggling economically….

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Probably not – too many farmers have irrigation? However – when private wells start gong dry because the aquifers are being depleted – now THAT will bring a new set of worries :-(

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        It’s not like the 1930s – we can easily import food within the U.S. and from other countries. We could adjust the agricultural model to more food for people than food for animals. There is little drought east of the Mississippi (inc. the big corn growing region from Ohio to E. Iowa). Most of E. Nebraska is irrigated. The agricultural areas of California and Florida are in good shape. Florida has had a wet year. I do worry about the drought continuing. We’ve had many multi-year droughts in the past (1930s, 1945-46, 1950s). I’ve always used the line “drought begets drought”. Some of the features from last winter are still present this winter (cold PDO, weak El Nino to La Nada, low southwest of Alaska pumping Pacific air across the Rockies, warm AMO)

        1. Rumrunner says:

          La Nada? LOL “We need some rain..” “You’ll get La nada, pal.”

  9. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

    watched this with barry in zeeland!!

  10. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Long term model runs sure look ugly for snow lovers. Progressive troughs with no real arctic outbreaks in sight.

    Looks like the Bering Sea Omega Ridge remains firmly in place. Further, the AO is trending back to neutral, if anything.

    I feel bad for all the ski resorts up north that have already opened. Many spots look to see mid 50′s next week.

    1. Brad says:

      We could be seeing 70s by February.

        1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

          Oh no Fix, we need snow and cccccold in the month of Feb.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        We could be seeing 90′s by March and 120′s by June. Probably not though.

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        brad – How about a bet on making 70 in March in G.R.? I say “no”.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Update: The warmest temperature in March in G.R. was 56. The warmest in February was 45. Total fail for Brad.

    2. Jacob G says:

      This year will not be the winter that snow sticks around from Dec 1st to April 1st. We will have a lot of up and downs with some significant cool downs followed by the seasonal traditional zonal flow setups in between the cool downs. We do have a wildcard in the mix here lately with a re-curving typhoon in the pacific that may lead to eventually shifting the jet stream further south. Lot of moving pieces right now and this is the time of year the jet stream under goes the seasonal changes so not surprising the computer models are having a bit of hard time here lately. Looks like next week’s cold front is coming in sooner so the warm-up will be shorter lived than original expected. If we can break the low clouds on Monday southern sections could make a run at 60.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        At the same time, there is less moisture to work with afterwards, so once again the lake effect potential looks bleak and dismal. I don’t understand when people say “all you have to do is wait…it’s coming”. Looking at the pattern, it’s pretty obvious winter (as in SNOW) is going to be on hold for quite a while…

    3. John (Holland) says:

      It sucks…

    4. GunLakeDeb says:

      Around here, the local bars/restaurants depend on the snowmobilers for their winter income.

      I’m still holding out hope for a “normal” winter. Clearly the forecast models are all over the place, judging by what is being said. And after last year’s prediction of “brutal”…..well… I give up worrying about it. It is what it will be. “Normal” = some snow, some thaw. I’m way confident that our snowmobile will get used this winter.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Deb, I want to say that when I first started reading your posts on here a couple years ago, some of them bothered me…however, I have really come to enjoy reading your posts and appreciate what you have to share on this blog. Great points!

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Thanks, Matt :-) I really TRY to not rile people too badly….

    5. Bill Steffen says:

      Great year for many Michigan ski resorts. Latest skiing ever in parts of Northern Michigan.

  11. Dan says:

    The model runs were hinting at a pretty decent cool down in the next 2 weeks.
    You know how unreliable model runs can be that far out. I wonder if we ever do get into a Winter weather pattern? Very interesting, latest trends reveal that we could be even milder this winter then we were last winter. I did not think this was possible for 2 years in a row!

  12. Brad says:

    Bill has been awfully quiet in his run up to retirement…I wonder who will take over the blog?

    1. Skot says:

      Hopefully Laura V.

      1. Ryan says:

        Kirkwood hopefully.

        1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

          well, it’ll probably the next one in seniority which would be Terri!

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Doesn’t Matt already have his own “mini blog”? I know he has had a couple of posts on here. I agree with you, too. There is one of their meteorologists whom I really wouldn’t want to be the main blogger, but I will not say the name.

    2. Yup (Grandville) says:

      When is he retiring?

      1. Brad says:

        $250K/year but teachers are “overpaid.”

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        He works year round… =) My teacher buds who are sailors in this state have it MADE!

      3. big Daddy BC says:


        Have it made? They’ve lost 10-15% of their salaries in two years. They’re not all married to doctors like you.

      4. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Seriously, DF… I HATE that argument. I would love to see you people who don’t teach, do it for a year….there is just as much, if not more, time that goes on outside of the school day planning, grading papers, meetings, setting up classrooms, preparing labs (for science teachers like me). If you have never taught, you have no room to speak. Oh, and I LOVE teaching. It’s hard work, but so fruitful.

      5. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Some of my best buds are teachers… They hate that argument too :) As a sailor I am jealous, that is all I am saying. I know the teacher drill.

      6. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        :) Yeah, if you want to get a teacher going, just bring up “summers off”……… :P

      7. Bill Steffen says:

        brad’s tellin’ fibs again…I’m not retiring and I DON’T make anywhere near 250K. I get five weeks vacation (in my 39th year of doing this), but work a lot of weekend shifts and holidays (I’m working the Sunday before Christmas (23rd), Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and New Year’s Eve. Then factor in the time doing the blog (much of that from home) and the public appearances (Weds. night in Allegan, Saturday here in G.R. – Barnes and Noble, Grandville). I also work Saturday the 8th, evening shift. Yes, I do enjoy my job! I get paid to have fun!

      8. big Daddy BC says:

        We’re feeling real sad when a certified member of the 1% club has to work a weekend or two and do a few holiday appearances. P-lease, Mr. Steffen.
        The rest of us are working our tails off just to pay YOUR taxes!

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Tell us about your work, bigD? Tell us about your education? I’m sure you won’t respond to this comment.

          In other news:

          New paper finds climate models are getting worse rather than better:

          A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the latest climate models are performing even worse than the earlier generations of climate models in predicting “both the mean surface air temperature as well as the frequency of extreme monthly mean temperature events due to climate warming.” The author hypothesizes the reasons for this are that attempts in the latest generation of models to reproduce observed changes in Arctic sea ice are causing “significant and widening discrepancy between the modeled and observed warming rates outside of the Arctic,” i.e. they have improved Arctic simulation at the expense of poorly simulating the rest of the globe. The paper adds to hundreds of other peer-reviewed papers demonstrating the abject failure of climate models.

          Emerging selection bias in large-scale climate change simulations

          Kyle L. Swanson

          Abstract: Climate change simulations are the output of enormously complicated models containing resolved and parameterized physical processes ranging in scale from microns to the size of the Earth itself. Given this complexity, the application of subjective criteria in model development is inevitable. Here we show one danger of the use of such criteria in the construction of these simulations, namely the apparent emergence of a selection bias between generations of these simulations. Earlier generation ensembles of model simulations are shown to possess sufficient diversity to capture recent observed shifts in both the mean surface air temperature as well as the frequency of extreme monthly mean temperature events due to climate warming. However, current generation ensembles of model simulations are statistically inconsistent with these observed shifts, despite a marked reduction in the spread among ensemble members that by itself suggests convergence towards some common solution. This convergence indicates the possibility of a selection bias based upon warming rate. It is hypothesized that this bias is driven by the desire to more accurately capture the observed recent acceleration of warming in the Arctic and corresponding decline in Arctic sea ice. However, this convergence is difficult to justify given the significant and widening discrepancy between the modeled and observed warming rates outside of the Arctic.

    3. fixxxer says:

      Yeah bill has been quiet.

  13. kevin. w says:

    AO, NAO have trended positive last couple days and todays outlook is even more positive. I can say for sure that for the next two weeks doesn’t look like any cold/snow coming and it would have to snow at night if we do get some. CPC update Nov. 30 CFS2 update tomorrow as well. I’m guessing that 2/3rds of the country should be warmer than average with below ave. precip in the east for December. I just don’t see the Gulf of Alaska low or the Russian high budging much in the next month and if (IF) it doesn’t then the U.S will need a good fire department to put out the heat come spring/summer. I just wish it would rain/snow and get colder this constant red/heat and brown/drought is sure getting boring.

    1. Ryan says:

      What if the Alaska low or the Russian high don’t move until say mid January? Does that have much affect on what spring will be like?

  14. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Don’t forget, today was the day we were supposed to get the huge low bringing arctic air, sustained winds, and lots of lake effect snow. And that was a prediction only a week out, let’s remember.

    Instead, it’s 45 degrees, calm, and sunny with even warm temperatures coming up.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      So the warm predicted should be opposite?

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        ha except the warm wasn’t really being widely predicted. It was supposed to turn wintry and cold into December!

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Yes, all of the experts predicted a colder and snowier December. Not going to happen, in fact I expect the EXACT OPPOSITE!!

  15. DF (SE Mich) says:

    How quickly we forget about the massive amounts of snow we got in the winters from 2007 to 2011, at least over here. That is why we have averages folks. Detroit had 3 of the top 10 snowiest winters ever recorded in the last 5 years…

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I just found a picture from the winter of ’10/’11, where big work trucks parked on our car lot were buried to the roofs in snow. It took several days of hard work to shovel them out!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I might have to keep looking at those pictures to get my snow fix! :(

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          The prettiest “winter kayak trip” picture I have, is of branches heavily loaded with snow – so much so, that they arch over the river. Taken in Feb 2012 :-) We DID get beautiful snowfalls – it just didn’t stick around.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          I totally agree. Some of the snowfalls last winter were beautiful. The wet snow clung to everything. If the snow would have just stayed around…

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        How spoiled we were =)

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Speaking of Detroit, great video here from WXYZ on each meteorologist’s winter predictions. All four say below average snow this year.


      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Contradicts FOX 2. We shall see. A couple huge storms and we are to the average =) Nice video.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Well the winter is starting out boring and dry, so it would make sense that once it kicks in, we’ll just have “average snow” for the rest of the winter. Subtract the first couple of weeks from snow of any significance and you get their winter forecasts.

      3. fixxxer says:

        We new months ago many said this may be a repeat of last winter. Its welcomed by me. I hope we get an early spring and another hot summer too.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Bah humbug. :P

        2. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

          I’ll pass on the hot summer, you know people do have to work and people do die in that stuff, so how about an average to slightly below average summer!!!???

  16. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    “Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    November 29, 2012 at 11:06 am

    15-20 degrees above average for consecutive days in December is pretty rare but, yes, it’s certainly happened before.

    With that said, when was the last time we saw a high 15-20 degrees BELOW average in GR??

    It seems like we get a couple on the above average side every month, but I can’t recall the opposite happening much at all lately.”

    Not sure if it was the last time or not but it did happen in January of 1994
    This is goint to be long but here are the temps for January 1994 in GR.

    TODAY’S DATE: 29-NOV-12

    JAN-94 FOR GRAND RAPIDS, MI (804′) LAT=42.9N LON= 85.5W

    1 40 23 32 31 20 25 +7 0.14 0.8 4 33
    2 24 16 20 31 19 25 -5 0.00 0.0 3 45
    3 23 17 20 31 19 25 -5 0.02 0.4 3 45
    4 29 18 24 31 19 25 -1 0.05 0.8 3 41
    5 19 10 15 31 19 25 -10 0.04 0.8 4 50
    6 19 13 16 31 19 25 -9 0.17 5.1 8 49
    7 19 14 17 31 19 25 -8 0.02 0.8 8 48
    8 18 5 12 31 18 25 -13 0.06 1.6 8 53
    9 23 0 12 31 18 25 -13 0.02 0.4 8 53
    10 31 -4 14 31 18 24 -10 0.10 2.4 7 51
    11 34 10 22 31 18 24 -2 0.02 0.4 7 43
    12 34 8 21 31 18 24 -3 0.00 0.0 7 44
    13 31 9 20 31 18 24 -4 0.01 0.0 6 45
    14 10 -2 4 31 18 24 -20 0.03 0.4 5 61
    15 6 -16 -5 31 18 24 -29 0.00 0.0 5 70
    16 7 -16 -5 31 18 24 -29 0.18 4.3 9 70
    17 13 -1 6 30 18 24 -18 0.06 0.8 10 59
    18 -1 -18 -10 30 18 24 -34 0.17 2.0 10 75
    19 -1 -22 -12 30 18 24 -36 0.03 0.4 10 77
    20 16 -3 7 30 18 24 -17 0.01 0.4 10 58
    21 24 6 15 30 18 24 -9 0.02 0.4 10 50
    22 33 21 27 30 18 24 +3 0.00 0.0 9 38
    23 36 23 30 31 18 24 +6 0.01 0.0 6 35
    24 36 29 33 31 18 24 +9 0.00 0.0 4 32
    25 29 14 22 31 18 24 -2 0.01 0.4 4 43
    26 16 5 11 31 18 24 -13 0.00 0.0 4 54
    27 33 5 19 31 18 24 -5 0.77 1.2 5 46
    28 34 25 30 31 18 24 +6 0.69 0.4 4 35
    29 28 8 18 31 18 24 -6 0.05 1.2 5 47
    30 12 -1 6 31 18 24 -18 0.00 0.0 5 59
    31 16 -8 4 31 18 24 -20 0.00 0.0 5 61



    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      We have had quite a few lows over 15 degrees below normal, in a series, this November over here. We seem to forget about low temperatures.

      1. John (Holland) says:

        Indeed. 20/30 days in November had below-average low temps.


        (I know, its Accuweather, but they have nice historical charts like this.)

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          They do have the best graph of historical temps. Ann Arbor for comparison:

      2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        True, but we’ve similarly have a bunch of recent very warm lows against average, including record warm lows.

  17. 2012 Cooling To More Normal Levels
    Departure From Normal “Breckenridge Station”
    Jan + 7.9
    Feb + 8.0
    Mar +19.4
    Apr – 1.3
    May + 5.4
    Jun + 4.0
    Jul + 4.9
    Aug + 0.7
    Sep + 0.4
    Oct + 0.4
    Nov + 0.1

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Interesting 10 out of the last 11 months warmer than average including November. Coldest since 2002. What a joke.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        With one day to go…November is 0.2 deg. cooler than average in G.R. We should get that back to exactly average today (30th). Kalamazoo will end the month cooler than average. Grand Rapids has had exactly average temperatures for August 1 thru November 30 (four months). Kalamazoo is slightly cooler than average.

  18. Amazing thing was the March mean temperature 48.2 was 1.0 degrees warmer than the april mean temperature of 47.2
    I bet it’s been rare to have a average March warmer than April !!

    1. Brad says:

      Probably unprecedented!

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Inconceivable… oh wait, it happened.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          And it happened in G.R. in 1907 and almost happened in 1945.

  19. The 1930′s prob had some warm March’s but I bet the April’s were most likely warm too.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Most of the Marches in the 1930′s were on the cold side.

  20. Jack says:

    I’m Ready For Baseball…. Think Spring!!….. Just Sayin…. ;-)

  21. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I see there are finally a lot of people on this blog that are starting to face reality! You know the drill:
    1. It was a great fall day out on the golf course.
    2. I plan on golfing this weekend and right on into next week.
    3. No cold air in sight.
    4. Definitely no SNOWSTORMS in sight!
    5. We are entrenched in a no snow pattern.
    6. This pattern is just like last year – long range showing cold and snow that NEVER happens! A lot of HYPE about this winter being cold and snowy? Ya right!
    7. There are ZERO indication that we will be having a cold and snowy winter. In fact all current indications point towards another BUST of a winter – maybe worse than last year!

    Get out and enjoy this GREAT fall weather. Winters may never be the same again. I would suggest moving farther North or out to the Rocky Mountain region if you like SNOW!!!

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Calm down.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Just the facts John. Time for you to face reality!

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Just because he tells you to calm down doesn’t mean he is not facing reality. I think he speaks for many of us in telling you to just relax…that you don’t need to post over and over that winter isn’t coming. What you’re posting aren’t really facts…just speculation.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          No one speculates on the blog. too funny!

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:


    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m old enough to remember the gloom-and-doom about the looming “Ice Age” back in the 70′s….

      As I’ve said – I’m sure the snowmobile will see some trails. And in the meantime – I KAYAK. A wonderful year-round activity ;-)

      1. Rumrunner says:

        Thats pretty cool to see. Wonder if I can find the articles easily. Anyway, we usually know when the first/last frost is on average. When does the first snow “stick” on average?

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          ROFL!!! When I saw the Front Page that said something about the “Ice Age Coming” and “51 things you could do about it” – the first thought that went through my admittedly-warped brain was: “eat beans” since the Global Warming alarmists keep telling us that methane is a contributor…. :-)

          Of course, maybe we SHOULD know those “51 things” – clearly, they WORKED. Now look at the mess we’ve created… and of course I offer this last part entirely tongue-in-cheek.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Yeah, but what Bill’s leaving out is that his mentor was one of the perpetrators of that myth and later a global warming denier. LOL

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Dr. Reid Bryson was one of the top 3 climatologists in the world. In 2007 on CNBC he said “you could spit and cause more damage to the environment than doubling CO2 in the atmosphere. Dr. Bryson wrote more than 230 articles and five books, including Climates of Hunger, which won the Banta Medal for Literary Achievement.


    4. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Winters may never be the same again? That’s a stretch there Ricky Bobby….

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        We shall see!

  22. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Imagine that – the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook has us in the above average temperatures again. Kevin W mentioned this above and I agree. The CPC will be changing their outlook for December to above average temperatures and well below snowfall! In fact I would not be surprised if they change their entire three month winter outlook to warmer than average temps!

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Why would those models/predictions be any more reliable than the models you constantly cite as being worthless? I agree that the 8 to 14 Day Outlook is likely to be warmer/less snowier than average, but to imply that a 1-week stretch in December is going to be indicative of the entire winter is a major jump. It would be a complete guess, just like you say any models that show upcoming snow and cold are inaccurate and will be proven wrong. But I constantly see you and some others on here always talk about how there are “no big winter storms in sight” and “this is going to be just like last winter.” You can’t have it both ways. If the “cold” models are unreliable, so are the “warm” ones, which means we will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I have answered this question before but since you asked here are the hard cold facts :)

        The models and long range forecasts during the winter months especially at the beginning of winter are always inaccurate and they have a bias towards cold and snow, therefore when they show cold and snow they are usually wrong, however when they show above average temperatures they are more accurate. Take it to the bank!

        1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          You didn’t give me any hard cold facts on that one, Randy. For you to say they are “always” inaccurate is a radical exaggeration. I agree that in the last 2 winters including this one, the forecast models from October and November were way overdone on snow and cold, so I can understand your pessimism. I’ve voiced my own complaints about those models and other forecasters (i.e. Joe Bastardi) that constantly talk about big snow and cold outbreaks that many times never occur. But I don’t agree that the models have a natural bias towards cold and snow (maybe the GFS perhaps, but that’s it). The winter last year was an anomaly in many ways, as most factors indicated it would indeed be a cold/snowy winter, but the blocking fooled everyone and led to a different outcome. This year…it’s way too early to say much of anything other than we’re off to a dry/snow-free start to winter despite temperatures being close to normal.

  23. Dan says:

    Yes, you can take the CPC data and all the models. Many times, some weather info gets missed or not clearly accounted for.
    It goes to show, no matter how sophisticated the instruments are that we have for weather data, Mother Nature always gets the last laugh!
    I’m still saying we get some decent snows toward the middle of December.
    Even though, all indicators point to us skipping winter!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Months ago, Cort had posted an article that explained how hard it is to forecast weather – and how a fraction of a degree one way or another can make HUGE differences as it’s extrapolated forward by the models.

      I’m a believer in “go with the obvious”: it’s Michigan. It WILL snow.

      1. Jack says:

        Here, Here, Here, 3 Cheers For Sanity !! Thanks Dan and G.L. Deb !!! http://runningintherealworld.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/weathercartoon.jpg

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          That is PERFECT and not far from reality :)

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes it will snow however not very much. I would expect way below normal snowfall for Grand Rapids.

        1. Nathan says:

          Rocky, what data do you have? Even if you have data, it is most likely wrong. So Im not listening to you comments. I just go with the flow.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          All the data that you need is to look out your window and realize that we are stuck in a no snow pattern, just like last year. These are the undisputed facts!!!!

        3. Cort S. says:


          Fact: it has not been snowing much lately. (Undisputable)

          Interpretation: it will continue to not snow much. (Disputable)

        4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Hard to argue that one!

        5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          It still can go either way, once we get into a pattern sometimes we can stay in that pattern for several months. Bottom line is if this is the upcoming winter pattern then what you see is what you will get. And it may stay that way until the pattern breaks. That may be in two weeks or it could be in two months.

        6. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Two thumbs up to Cort for using science!

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Science is frowned upon on this blog. What’s the matter with you?!

        8. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha, big daddy…I know we don’t agree on much, but this made me smile. :)

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          Graph from Dr. Chris Landsea at the National Hurricane Center: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/pdi-1900-20121.jpg It’s really quieted down since 2006.

        10. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

          If Bill did not laugh out loud at Big d bc’s comment then i don’t know what is funny anymore. That was funny right there.

  24. Nathan says:

    I really miss the old winters when i would wake up to fresh snow on the ground and shovel it. I would always look forward to winter storms and icicles on the roof… But last year was a huge bummer. Im really looking forward to this years snowier winter and I hope it turns out like my past memories! Don’t listen to what other people say. Choose what you want and hope it happens. I am thinking these warm temperatures will leave the area around Christmas time and then we will see our snowy winter. But thats just a guess.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      We here in GR had just over 50″ of snow last year. For most cities in the US of our size that would be a lot of snow and they would be talking on how bad last winter was.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Well Jim this is GR not other cites and GR should be getting at least 70 inches of for at least a decent season and 90 to 100 inches for a good season. 50 inches of snow is a ridiculous total and we see less than that this season!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’m sharing your hope, Nathan! And IMO, here’s what we have to do: since Michigan is not guaranteed to have snow on the ground ALL the time (we always get a thaw or two – or like last year,…..seven or so…LOL!) – when we DO get snow – we enjoy the heck out of it! Make snow angels and snowmen and go sliding and skiing and whatever makes your heart beat fast. Because I’ve also seen winters that started out fierce, with terrifically-snowy Novembers – then ended in February.

  25. fixxxer says:

    lol @ no snow! ;)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      This is going to be your kind of winter. Very low snow totals and above average temperatures. It is looking very similar to last winter, only worse :)

  26. Nathan says:

    And Rocky, if the CPC changes their outlook to warm for this entire winter like you said, then they are wrong… And it will be a snowy winter! See what I mean? We cant rely on models or other people. Just wait and see how it plays out.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Too funny!

    2. Jack says:

      Yeah, Nathan.. We all have The same Odds of Being Right !! ;-) . http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/432541/coin_20flip.jpg

  27. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    So this possible freezing drizzle north of 96 tonight how bad will it be in the morning Bill will there be slick spots I have to drive to GH tomorrow but I will cancel if it’s going to be bad?

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Jordan, it probably won’t be too bad. I would guess that IF there is freezing drizzle, it would just be on cars…however, it’s always good to be on the safe side and drive carefully.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        lol…Oh, Brad…stop instigating…leave him alone.

      2. Ryan says:

        Doesn’t look like any freezing drizzle down there.

      3. Jack says:

        Roflmao…That is 1 of YourBest BRAD….You Bad…You Bad…. Laughter….CONTINOUS…….

      4. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Now THAT was funny.

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Seriously brad stop I’m getting to the point where I’m done with this blog!

        2. Rumrunner says:

          You can’t leave the blog. You love the drama too much.

  28. INDY says:

    first 3 weeks of December going to be verry warm 50′s 60′s with no snow !!! Could it be a green xmas 2 again stay tuned… INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      fine by me Indy, I lovvvvvveeee..MEAN GREEN !! Ya Know What I Meannnnnnnnnnn ,!,,

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Now you are understanding INDY. No cold and snow on the way and a lot of warm air on the way. I still say the odds of White Christmas for this year are under 25%!

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        So your saying there’s a chance. Yup,I read ya.

  29. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

    My favorite time of the year is now,amped up cause global pattern can deliver more Christmas like weather than normal in run up to holidays

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Well, if he means more “Christmas like” as in like what it’s been many years lately, then yeah…brown. :P

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      He can not help himself. He will always say COLD and SNOW is on the way! How did his prediction of the coldest November since 2002 work out? Biggest HYPE machine on Earth!

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Biggest hype machine on earth? Pot, meet kettle. Kettle, pot.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          He deals in hype and I deal with facts like the fact we are below average in snowfall so far and we are in a no snow pattern and there is no change in sight! Face reality!

  30. michael g (SE GR) says:

    You HAVE to be kidding me. Obama’s solution for our out of control budget deficits? Higher taxes and MORE STIMULUS SPENDING! Oh, and a PERMANENT lifting of our debt limit. What a joke.


    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:


    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      But micheal, that’s what the country voted for. So I guess they are a pretty smart bunch right. Unfortunately this may be the new America. Imagine where we may be even as soon as a year from now. It is frightening.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Keep in mind that this same electorate voted for Bush in twice. …And look how that went.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          If your talking demographics, I don’t think Bush got nearly the 90% or so votes Obama did, of African Americans.

        2. Irish coffee says:

          Brian : Obama got 95% of 18-29 y.o’s vote from that demographic….fun fact: unemployment rate in DC of young African American pop.? ~52%! Race of 9 out 10 TOP AIDES in Obama admin.? CAUCASION!

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s unemployment by political party: http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/images/unemployment-by-president-political-party.jpg Average under the 8 years of George Bush was 5.3%. Average under Obama 9.0%. Nothing we are doing now or that is proposed is going to significantly lower unemployment from the current roughly 8%. Nothing! Taking money out of the economy through higher taxes will not reduce unemployment. Throwing money down rathole: http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/target_8/Volt-no-jolt-LG-Chem-employees-idle after rathole: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house won’t reduce unemployment.

        4. Rumrunner says:

          LOL. I think the point is missed…

        5. Irish coffee says:


    3. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      The dumbing down of America continues.

    4. Irish coffee says:

      Bush Sr. and Reagan fell for the same trix….different rabbit/s. Promises from Congress that given tax increases, they would- (read their LIPS) CUT SPENDING!! LOL! This time around, whatever tax/revenue increases are added- will be EXCEEDED by actual spending INCREASES resulting in a net INCREASE in deficits!! That’s what liberals like to call a “balanced approach/compromise”> higher taxes+MORE spending= Obama placing debt bill on Sasha and Malea’s (school desks;(
      The conservatives, what, all 4 or 5 that are left in the House&Senate, should propose/agree to is a TAX rate increase for top 2%, w/ a tax rate decrease of say 5% for middle class!.Then when Obama refuses to agree to it- conservative members who still have 1/2 a spine +titanium testes left, can rebutt- “but you specifically said in campaign you were for the middle class; time to PUSU”. …followed by mid-term ads highlighting how Obama was AGAINST/opposed to helping out the middle class, while conservatives put forth an actual PLAN to help save them $$$$.

    5. GunLakeDeb says:

      The sad part is that the “stimulus spending” usually carries millions (billions?) of dollars of “pork” along with it. And BOTH parties are guilty of it.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        No doubt Deb…i just wish for once they would show some cajones and not only PROPOSE $3 of spending CUTS for every $1 increase in tax revenue– but FOLLOW THROUGH!! JUST ONCE…not asking anyone to fly to Mercury and retrieve ice from it’s polar icecap(north)….it’s downright John Madden-ing at times….and could someone, for the love of sanity,please please tell Congressmen/women that a CUT = a CUT, and NOT just spending a lil’ less than they really want!! IF i tried to tell my wife that i was planning on CUTTING my leisure time activity bills(snowmobiling,fishing, golfing, chasing__ wait nevermind;) for fiscal yr. ’13 by spending only $1000 MORE than in ’12..but since i wanted to spend $2000 more, i am really CUTTING my discretionary budget?! Yeah….that would go over like a pig roast at a BARmitzvah! NOT!!

  31. Jack says:

    I’ve never Been So Entertianed on This BLOG,as, I am Today.. I attribute It To…..THE FULL MOON..!! Anybody Agree??? ;-)

    1. Ryan says:

      That must be why I’ve been spending this much time on here today.

    2. John (Holland) says:

      There has indeed been a lot of howling out of Rockford today.

  32. michael g (SE GR) says:

    New lottery slogans…

    The lottery, it’s like a luxury tax on the poor.

    The lottery, great for people who are bad at math.

    The lottery, where even the winners are losers.

    1. Jack says:

      Or..Cue: Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers – Even The Losers (1980) – YouTube

      ► 3:41► 3:41

  33. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

    http://Weatherbell.com Nov 22 idea 50% US covered with snow around Christmas ( +/- 2 days) CFSV2 agrees, and is cold too pic.twitter.com/ykkkb7mD

  34. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Where have we heard that before? and how many times has it been wrong? The hype machine keeps plugging along. It is like the energizer bunny!

  35. kevin. w says:

    Alright guys whats up read all your post since my last one and its seem were on steroids or something. Are we all having winter withdrawls from last year and were all becoming depressed again as we know there just may not be a lovely winter like were hoping. This is kinda getting sh****y isn’t it.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Yeah, everyone is bored, depressed, and full of angst. But thank goodness we are actually talking about weather now instead of politics or climate change. I remember Winter 2010-11 was off to a slow start into mid-December, and our first winter storm on December 11 was a relative bust (for GR at least). Then we had a snowy January and the biggest February blizzard on record. And we even had measurable snowfall in mid-April. The point is, every winter is unique, and how it begins is no foreshadow of its middle or end.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I agree with your comment about politics and climate change!

        1. Jack says:

          By Climate Change, Do Ya Mean…GULLIBLE WARMING ??? LOL ;-)

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Speaking of politics, I hope you’re all paying attention to what our legislature is doing during its Lame Duck session NOW. They’re essentially trying to dismantle public education in our state, while circumventing the loss of the Emergency Manager Law. Email your senator and representative and tell them NO!!!



        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Give minority children a choice in education. Here’s where you can learn about public charter schools in Michigan: http://charterschools.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=79&Itemid=44 Given the option that bigDaddy doesn’t want you to have, many parents have chosen and want to choose a charter school. More than two-thirds of Michigan’s 232 charter schools have waiting lists, some of those lists go into the hundreds of families. There are an estimated 12,000 children in Michigan on public charter school waiting lists. There’s a charter school about a mile east of WOOD-TV: http://www.thewcaa.org/.

        4. Rumrunner says:

          My kids go to a charter vs GR Public. Its worth the 22mile round trip.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          My post was less about Charter Schools and more about the Governor’s second attempt at circumventing the will of the people. Creating an Educational Achievement Authority is unconstitutional because, once again, it takes the power out of the hands of communities and gives it to a Governor appointed overlord. Read up before spewing out rhetoric about an unrelated subject.


        6. Bill Steffen says:

          BigDaddy and his ilk would close all the charter schools tomorrow if they could…or find some stealth way to unionize the employees (they couldn’t win an honest vote)…maybe without a vote or even without their knowledge like they did with the home health care workers. Over 32 million dollars…money intended to care for loved ones…confiscated by the union without any vote, without even their knowledge. Fortunately that theft will end in February.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Agreed, ya never know what we’ll be talking about in April, during our winter wrap-up conversation right.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      It is a little depressing if you enjoy the winter months, especially seeing upper 50′s in the forecast.What do ya do? I’ll just take it for what it is. Until I see temps below 30, with snow in the 8 day, I won’t bother to get excited about anything. Get outside and enjoy the unseasonably warm weekend, it will be the last one right. Ha ha, heard that before. Who knows though right?

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Haha…yeah, I think our “last big warmup” for the season was oh, um, last week right before Thanksgiving….and then we had heavy, take-your-breath-away lake effect snow that piled up to a very wintry dusting.

  36. kevin. w says:

    Hot summer no clouds no rain to much sun, now its boring. Maybe I should get back into golf which I haven’t played in years after getting a hole in one about ten years ago. Figured I got the game beat and just gave it up after that and lost interest. Kinda like playing COD new maps but same kinda game but I still play that a bit. I wonder if will get one heck dump of snow and that will be our winter for a couple weeks then we go to the 90s in March.

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      Disc golf is always fun :)

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I get excited when I get a hole-in-five!

  37. Billy Boy says:

    I have this idea that whatever happens in the UP in the winter — we get about two weeks later. They have around 10″ of snow, so wait two weeks. Mark my words.

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      The snow also starts in October and stays until May up there lol

      1. John (Holland) says:

        I could go for that.

  38. kevin. w says:

    Ok words are marked but remember that snow is lake effect. What big lake do live by.

  39. arcturus says:

    No ammunition for any ‘Storm Team 8′ hype thank goodness. Kyle Underwood must be going into withdrawls.

  40. big Daddy BC says:

    I hope you’re all paying attention to what our legislature is doing during its Lame Duck session NOW. They’re essentially trying to dismantle public education in our state, while circumventing the loss of the Emergency Manager Law. Email your senator and representative and tell them NO!!!



    1. Cort S. says:

      Yup, there it is. Politics is back!

      If we’re gonna talk about politics, let’s make it about weather. While you’re at it, e-mail our national representatives and senators about keeping the NWS well-funded. Let’s put it in terms of money and jobs.

      - The NWS’s budget is just shy of $1 billion. Hurricane Sandy likely caused $50 billion in damages. If the preparations in advance of Sandy prevented just 2% of damages from occurring, then the NWS has already paid for itself this year.

      - The high start-up costs of implementing and maintaining a satellite, radar, and weather balloon network is prohibitively expensive for private forecasting businesses. Public investment in these observation tools gives the private-sector weather enterprise the ability to thrive and make the best forecasts that science currently will allow.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      They finally passed the Regional Transit Authority over here after 100 years of debate ;) Good for them.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s where you can learn about public charter schools in Michigan: http://charterschools.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=79&Itemid=44 Given the option that bigDaddy doesn’t want you to have, many parents have chosen and want to choose a charter school. More than two-thirds of Michigan’s 232 charter schools have waiting lists, some of those lists go into the hundreds of families. There are an estimated 12,000 children in Michigan on public charter school waiting lists. There’s a charter school about a mile east of WOOD-TV: http://www.thewcaa.org/.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Here goes Bill with the company line, uniformed and moving forward like a corporate drone. Read. We aren’t even talking about Charters, Magoo.



        1. Bill Steffen says:

          All you can think about is money funneled to the union. Can we focus on children? You’re telling me that the Detroit Public Schools are the best we can do for those students…that they would be harmed if given a choice to go to a neighborhood charter school? A waiting list of 12,000??!!

          Again…the Muskegon Heights School Board ASKED for an Emergency Manager. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/16/muskegon-heights-school-district-emergency-manager_n_1349748.html

          The Emergency Managers have community support: http://articles.wsbt.com/2011-04-28/benton-harbor_29485035

  41. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Bill, can we please have some updates about this winter??

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      It hasn’t arrived yet. Nothing to update.

    2. Mr. Negative says:

      Colder than today, with more snow on the way. Print it and tape it on your wall -

  42. Brad says:

    Bill’s back in the news!


    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Your on a roll tonight.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Noooo, he’s on fire.

        1. Irish coffee says:

          …stop,drop, and ROTFL!!

  43. Dan says:

    Yes, Winter Weather Withdrawal is in full effect. Just look at the comments in the blog! I have to say, the comments do make for some enjoyable reading. I’m still wanting to see if we do in fact hit 60 degrees on Sunday/Monday!
    I read somewhere that the cold front was moving in here quicker than earlier projections. Does it stay cool or do we warm back up following the passage of the cold front? Notice, I said cool and not cold. There has got to be an Arctic air outbreak coming soon in our future, right?

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