Weekend Thread

November 30th, 2012 at 1:41 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  The NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. a high of 58 on Saturday.  The Ionia electric light parade is this Friday evening.   Holiday/Christmas parades Saturday in Wyoming-Kentwood (10 AM), Middleville (10 AM), Ada (11 AM), Rockford (11 AM), Saugatuck (1 PM), White Lake (2 PM), Lowell (6 PM), Grand Haven (6 PM), St. Joseph (4 PM), Hastings (2 PM) (who am I missing?).  Portage has a tree lightning at 7 PM Saturday (G.R. is 5:30 PM today – Friday).  It’s the 69th year for the Santa Claus Parade in Rockford – it’s been around longer than me!  Is Coopersville doing a parade this year? (pic. from McConomy Photography in Hudsonville).   Here’s the college football schedule, including the Big Ten Championship game between Nebraska and my alma mater, Wisconsin.   I’m betting that the BCS is hoping Nebraska wins, so they don’t have a team with 5 losses in the BCS (in place of a more deserving SEC team).  I wonder if Kent State wins big if they don’t wonder why they can’t get in BCS.   Indianapolis comes to Ford Field on Sunday to take on the Lions.  ESPN says that game is on CBS, while the FOX early game is Seattle and Da Bears.

I’ll wait for the final word from the GRR NWS, but it looks like this November may be the 3rd driest ever in G.R.  I’ve got the average temperature for November in G.R. at 0.1 degree cooler than average (so essentially average).  This is the fourth month in a row with average temperatures in G.R. (August exactly average, September +0.1 degree, October -0.2 degree).  I’ve got Kalamazoo at -1.2 degrees for November and -0.5 degree for the period from August 1 to November 30.

The last 60 in December was in 2008.   The first 5 days of Dec. 1982 had high temperatures of 59, 67, 63, 50, 63.   After that we had highs of 65 on Christmas Day and 61 on the 28th.   We also had 7 consecutive record high temperatures from March 1-7, inc. a 72 on March 3.  That winter we had just 36.2″ of snow, with the heaviest snow of 8″ coming on March 20-21 (the first day of spring).

83 Responses to “Weekend Thread”

  1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    I see WOOD is on the 60 degree bandwagon now! Enjoy everyone!

    1. Mert says:

      Well, check out Fairbanks, AK…must be about noon there….maybe it will warm up a bit this afternoon for them…current temp -29 F

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Didn’t we just have something that looked about like that 2 weeks ago forecasted for now?

      1. Stephen says:

        No. The GFS has actually been very consistent with a storm on the 13th. Rain or Snow I’ll bet we still see a strong storm system.

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          OK. I will pencil it in.

      2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Yep, the GFS and European model both showed a big storm for yesterday that never transpired.

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          I agree, it is like the “Free Beer Tomorrow” sign.

  2. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

    First ever post on this blog. I have lived in Michigan for the past 14 years. In that time I’ve seen good and not so good winters as far as snowfall goes. If this winter pans out to be a repeat of last year does anyone know the last time SW Michigan had back to back years like that? I apologize if that was answered recently but just curious.

    1. Cort S. says:

      That’s a good question, and I don’t really know off the top of my head. And my memory doesn’t go back very far.

      For a review of last winter and comparison to the past 30 years, here is a nice article:
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/climate/2011_2012_Winter_Climate_Summary.pdf

      1. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

        Thank you Cort. Appreciate the links to help me find my answers. Have to forgive me as I am a bit of a newbie.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      While not an exact match three winters in the early 1930′s where close (1931/23-23/33 and 33/34)
      SlimJim

  3. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The 12Z European has a storm for Dec 10th. Again, take it with a grain of salt. By tomorrow, it may show temps in the 50′s.

  4. Kris says:

    My kids need snow for Christmas. Come on, Bill – can’t you make that happen?

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Maybe they will get the joy of playing baseball instead for Chrithmeth?

      1. ftfd0806 says:

        wow!! U must be one of the jackwagons wanting to take CHRIST out of Christmas!! Stay classy in Zeeland!

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          How do you get religion out of talking about playing baseball in warm December weather? I think your on the wrong blog.

    2. ftfd0806 says:

      nope right blog, sure im reading CHRITHMETH on your post!

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        So your bashing my daughter because she says “chrithmeth” and thereby calling her a heathen? Very noble and upright of you. And again, this is the weather blog, not the religous zelot blog, and yes my kids love it outside when it’s this warm in December.

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          Have you been here before? LOL

        2. bobcat says:

          Bashing your daughter? Don’t think anyone called her a heathen… you pretty much set yourself up for this by not explaining your spelling. Good grief… Cute kid word! :) We all have cute kids… why buy trouble?

        3. Barry in Zeeland says:

          Pretty much straight forward if you read the first post from each of us when we’re talking about “kids”.

        4. ftfd0806 says:

          I’m not in the business of trying to figure out whether you’re talking like your kids or like you are on meth! Just read a disrespectful comment is all and gave my thought on it!

        5. Barry in Zeeland says:

          So now enjoying warm December weather equals being high on crystal meth and disrespectful? I think your in need of professional counseling. I’m glad eveyone on here is not as anal as you. Good day!

  5. John (Holland) says:

    In before Rocky says something about a no snow pattern.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Supposedly it’s 43 outside, but that is a nippy breeze. You won’t see me on the golf course, doing yard work, or enjoying this “fall” weather. If it’s going to be cold, bring on the snow.

  6. millekat says:

    Can anyone give me an idea about precip on Sunday morning?? Taking the annual trip to Hart’s Tree Farm in Rockford and we like to go early. I haven’t seen anything specific about timing/how much rain we’re getting.

    Thanks!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I like this graphical weather chart the NWS has added to the GR page:

      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.96120&lon=-85.6557&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

      It implies most of the rain will be overnight; but the chances of rain drop even more by 1 PM?

    2. Cort S. says:

      Right now, the HPC is calling for occasional rain showers (with less than 50% coverage of an area at any given time) through late in the morning on Sunday, associated with a low-pressure system swinging through:
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=wbg&arrval=5&vtime=Sun_12Z&ptime=Sun_00Z&ntime=Mon_00Z

      They are expecting typical rainfall amounts in the ballpark of a quarter inch. This map shows the typical values of rainfall expected between 7 pm Saturday and when the rain ends on Sunday:
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

      It appears that the bulk of the rainfall will be Saturday night, with showers lingering through Sunday morning.

    3. millekat says:

      Thank you to the both of you! And can I mention I appreciate reading your contributions to Bill’s Blog? :-)

      1. Cort S. says:

        Thanks. Feel free to keep asking questions if you ever need clarifications about the weather.

  7. kevin. w says:

    With a very weak Madden Julian Oscillation here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml the models have no signal to go on and its hard for them to grasp anything. Kinda like being stuck at red light for a hell of long time and just saying screw it and run it. Thats what the models are doing to us : ah I’ll just throw some cold out there and maybe a heapin bit a snow and run with it and maybe someone will believe like US bunch of winter idiots. I feel that somethings going to happen because the models keep going back and forth especially the last couple of runs. Will just have to wait and see

    1. Cort S. says:

      The MJO is weird, man.

    2. Irish coffee says:

      John Dee(good thing him and Ginger Zee never married w/ hyphenated last name(John and Ginger Dee-Zee does IT:) has put out a winter outlook update teaser.He states due to drastic changes since Oct. he needs to amend his forecast/outlook.I’m thinking he is probably referring to ENSO state?(non-factor now vs. highlighting it in his previous disco)..but alas, i’m not Miss C-Leo the lia’n king teller- so he can speak for himself.He is sticking to his guns about only losing 4-7″ snowcoover during upcoming ‘thaw’.I also stand by my previous speculation/claim that he will lose it ALL BEFORE Tue. am., or else i’ll joyfully plan my road trip to Twin Lakes and discreetly(wearing only shorts + tee) place $100 Bill @ ALCAM stake(between frame updates so as not to excite all the single ladies out there;)

      1. Scott (west olive) says:

        Lol

  8. INDY says:

    60′S in December THANKS FIZZER!!!! keep us warm….INDYY……

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Well I see there are still a bunch of people on here talking about cold and snow based on model runs that are 10 28 day out. You guys are hilarious! Fantasy Land!
    I’ve got some good news for those of you that are getting tired of me reminding you about the reality of out current pattern. This will be my last post until a SNOWSTORM is imminent or actually happening!!!! So just for old time sake here are the facts:
    1. I will golfing both days this weekend and probably right on into next week!
    2. We are in a SNOW drought pattern!
    3. There are no SNOWSTORMS or arctic air in sight!
    4. Long range weather models are totally WORTHLESS!!!!!!!!
    5. This is the same pattern as last year. Snow and cold on the long range models that NEVER happen!
    6. December will end up with above average temperatures!
    7. This winter could end up even worse than last year!
    8. The HYPE machine will just keep on coming and coming and coming!
    9. I will continue to enjoy the nice fall weather that we are currently having!

    Have fun fantasizing about the cold and snow that the models continue to push back week after week, after week, after week!

    Latter!

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      I may just have to dig out the golf clubs Rocky.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Dig?!?! Did somebody say……DIG!?! You will not be digging ANY SNOW this winter because we are in a NO SNOW pattern……………………………………………………………………..

  10. Cort S. says:

    It’s out-of-season, but… if you are bored with this weather, here are the probabilities of being in a Slight, Moderate, or High Risk of severe weather on any given day throughout the year:

    http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2012/11/climatological-estimates-and-evolution-of-local-daily-severe-weather-probabilities-part-3/

    (Note that the color scale uses different percentages for each of the 3 animations.)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Very cool! Note how few severe thunderstorms hit Miami and Brownsville TX.

  11. INDY says:

    60′s in December thats great bring on thunderstorms the glob is warm and it’s killing Michigan’s snow fall 10 more years and spring will be the norm 24/7 ……GET READY…..INDYY….

  12. kevin. w says:

    No Rocky I’m not on the winter wagon anymore unless I wake up and all I see is white.

  13. Its Nebraska v Wisconsin, Bill! :)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I knew that…can’t do 2 things at once…I fixed it…thanks.

      1. Paul says:

        By the way Bill, I thought it was great to see Brian Sterling take on that moron Debbie Stab-me-now. Good for WOOD TV 8 and journalism.

        1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

          It wasn’t that great Paul. He asked her questions, which she never answered and allowed her to ramble on like Chatty Cathy. He could and should have pressed her to answer the questions. But you are right about the fact that she is a moron. God help this country!

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Yet she trounced the idiot the repubs put up against her. You right wingers are hilarious. You hate Obama because he’s smart, loved Bush because he was dumb, and now hate Debbie because she appeared dumb. Which is it, teabaggers? Smart or Dumb? Don’t answer that.

        3. Paul says:

          Good job Brian.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          151 MILLION in tax dollars wasted at LG Chem! Four years! Not a single battery! We heard the Koreans ran off with the computers. Now they want to throw another 120 million into this?? We could fund the engineering dept. at GVSU with that kind of money. There’s literally dozens of these crony-boondoggles. They grab the tax money and we get nothing for it. This is the biggest: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house

          Wasting money is not progressive.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          Perhaps rather than trying to get this alternative energy thing going, we should just throw more subsidies at Exxon. OR, how about we create more tax breaks for Michigan’s top 1%? Oh, wait, we’re already doing all that!

          Don’t forget that Snyder’s new tax laws are going to hit the middle class hard this tax season! They eliminate deductions for charitable contributions to food banks and public universities as well as a $600-a-child exemption and tax credits for adoption, stillbirths, and farmland preservation.

          It also cuts the Earned Income Tax Credit by 70 percent, meaning 700,000 low-income working families will see their tax credits drop.

          The average family now will get $130 to $140 rather than $430 a year through the credit.

          Snyder’s corporate friends can expect to pay $1.1 billion less in taxes this year and $1.7 billion less in 2013.

          Two-thirds of companies will pay no income tax at all.

          You’re right, Bill. Let’s just throw more money at rich people like you and hope it trickles down.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Perhaps we could stop spending 1.3 TRILLION dollars a year that we are borrowing from the Chinese (and ourselves). We’ll never be able to pay that back – even if you took ALL the money away from those who earn over 250K a year (and that’s not me, BTW).

          Your drooling, rabid class envy and hate for those who achieve is disgusting. Why would you take all the money away from someone who earned it like Derek Jeter or Greg Jennings?

          2/3rds of all companies pay no income tax at all? You’re kidding right? You seriously don’t believe that, do you?

          They promised your taxes wouldn’t go up…but the 2% payroll tax increased…there are dozens of new fees connected to Obamacare that will be passed down to the poor and middle class. How can you continue to support the green energy, crony boondoggles like LG CHEM and Solyndra (and now Fisker) – it’s an absolute waste…and an absolute shame this money wasn’t used to help the poor or the middle class.

  14. fixxxer says:

    Anybody else catch that stomach virus thats going round? We were up all night with our daughter. What a mess, violent stuff for sure. Come on spring!

    1. Cort S. says:

      WAS THAT YOU? I finally got rid of mine after catching it on Thanksgiving. Thankfully it wasn’t bad at all, just annoying. Yes, I live 900 miles away from you. The wind probably carried it.

      1. fixxxer says:

        It isnt fun thats for sure.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      My son had a touch of that this week. He is 3, and when we went to the grocery store he just had to tell the cashier about his bowl movements, it was a little embarrassing.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Yeah it hits you fast but is short lived. Im longing for summer.

    3. Jack says:

      Yeah, FIXXER I’ve Been Struggling With It Since Early Tues.A.M., Ya think Your Feeling Better 1 Day and the next Your back Down…It Sucks Big Time… :-(

      1. fixxxer says:

        Geez jacko you may want to go see a doctor if your not better.

    4. fixxxerswrist says:

      im sorry for your pain master but i am just a wrist so i could not get it.

  15. Jacob G says:

    Just some tips for understanding the output of the models this time of year. It seems like the ensembles are the way to go right now when we are in seasonal transitions. The operational model runs are a crap shoot or at least it can seem to be with a lot of flip flops. Also not every run of the GFS will have all the balloon upper air data, I generally like to look at the 00Z and 12Z runs from the GFS. Also you need confirmations from more than just one operational model to identify possible trends. As for storm tracks I wait until the NAM and other shorter term models to start picking up on possible storms. Usually inside the 84 hour window we are probably down to 50-150 miles of storm tracks. It all comes down to probabilities.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Great post. Let’s look at a spaghetti plot of the 20 GFS ensemble members, showing the setup of the mid-upper atmosphere (jet stream land).

      Click here.

      The closer together these spaghetti strands are to each other, the greater confidence we can have in the models’ forecasts. Notice how things start to fall apart around Tues-Weds, then it just gets exponentially worse (the model solutions “diverge”). This means that we can be relatively confident that the models are handling the general weather picture quite well up through Tuesday, then after that, our forecasts must get less and less detailed and more and more based on probability.

  16. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Bill, I’m marching in the Ada prade tomorrow at about 10:30AM! Will you be there?

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      Say, Hey to Fireman Dave for me! We go waaaayyyyy back.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Sure, if I see him! :)

  17. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Happy December or should I say dooms December as we all know none of us will make December out alive this date has been predicted for a very long time now and it will happen as we know it the earth will soon not exist and all of us will be dead not a single soul will live enjoy the next 21 days of your life I know I will!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyPy-a7HrnE

    1. Grandville says:

      Wow! Ok, Debbie Downer.

      1. Skot says:

        YEEAAAHHHH!!!!! NO MORE TAXES.

        1. Skot says:

          HEY DEB? Make like horse crap and “HIT THE TRAIL”

    2. Jack says:

      Deb.?? Did You Get 30 Dollars, from, Jordan To Purchase, That Crap Video ;-) . Just Asking?

    3. Irish coffee says:

      …”not a single SOUL will live…”< that's where we part ways; i believe all souls will continue to live– but where they end up is a different story/choice!

      1. Brad says:

        I have dibs on Ireland…

  18. Bnoppe says:

    Would you guys rather have 1-2 huge snow events IE blizzard12+ or 3-4 smaller storms IE 6-11 inches

    1. Irish coffee says:

      I’ll take C)none of the above…..my choice: the Valdez or Sierra Special–
      6+ feet in a couple days w/ a few dozen refreshers(6-12″) every week or so!;)

    2. John (Holland) says:

      Both! There are many ways to 100 inches.

      And I’d like the snow to stick around for more than 3 days after it falls. I wasn’t alive for the big blizzards of the 70s but I remember some great winters from the early 90s.

      In particular I recall a year where we had 12″ or so on the ground and it rained, then froze again, ending up with several inches of icy crust on top of the snow. Some great sledding was had that winter.

      And there was that blizzard around 2001-2002, the only time school was closed halfway through the day because of weather. There was over a foot of snow on US-31 and the plows couldn’t keep up.

      I gotta stop reminiscing about awesome winters or I’ll get depressed.

    3. Jack says:

      Same Way I Voted…None of Theee Above…. ;-)

  19. Benjamin (Kalamazoo) says:

    I got my own video for the 2012 Apocalypse crap all ready to go. I’ll upload it to YouTube on December 22nd, 2012. Its ten minutes nonstop laughter with images of 2012 rumors that didn’t happen.

    ^_^

  20. Skot says:

    Put your head between them cheeks and kiss fixxxer’s butt goodbye.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      No, thanks…As the world is ending, he will still be complaining that it is too cold and there is no thunderstorm action. I think I’d rather be by my wife during those last few…

  21. Jon (Coopersville) says:

    To answer Bill’s question, yes Coopersville is having the annual Christmas Parade on Main Street Friday, December 7.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Thanks, Jon – I appreciate it. I didn’t see anything on the web. I think I have Friday off, so maybe I’ll come out to see the parade. I’ve been in that parade in the past. I remember it’s a very nice parade. In the past they’ve had free refreshments after the parade.

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