White Christmas?

December 2nd, 2012 at 1:28 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Here’s the U.S. probability of a White Christmas map.  Click to enlarge.  Take a look at the CFS model for Dec. 23-28.  It’s a long way off, but the model is forecasting a good shot of cold (with snow on the ground) for much of the Eastern U.S.  Here’s the odds of a White Christmas for +100 cities in the U.S. including Michigan.  Here’s the odds of a White Christmas across Canada.   It looks like over 90% of Canada has snow on the ground now.  Check out the webcam at the South Pole, where every day is white!   Fairbanks, Alaska had their coldest back-to-back Novembers ever in 2011 and 2012.  The high temperature in Fairbanks on Saturday was -25F – that was 32 degrees colder than average.   Our largest state was shivering in November.  Here’s some temperature departures for November:  Fairbanks -8.4 deg., Anchorage -4.4 deg., Juneau -3.7 deg., Nome – 2.5 deg.   The HIGH temperature at Tok, Alaska on Thursday was -43F.  That was the coldest high temperature ever recorded there in November.  Their low temperature was -50F.   The high temperature at Northway, Alaska was -39 on Saturday and that was 38 degrees colder than average!   A blizzard has hit northern EuropeOver 30,000 customers were “blacked out” by the snowstorm in Finland.  Winds with the storm gusted to over 60 mph.  The same storm hit Sweden, where up to 40″ of snow was reported in the high mountains.  The heavy snow in Russia caused a 24-mile traffic backup.  Here’s video of the heavy snow in Moscow.   Oymyakon, Russia reported a low temperature of -53F Friday AM.  There’s 3-4 FEET of new snow at Mammoth Mt., California.  The summit at Kirkwood Ski area had 24″ of new snow in 24 hours.  Check out the pictures from Mt. Baker in Washington State, where they also had 24″ of snow in 24 hours.  Here’s rain and wind reports from California.

148 Responses to “White Christmas?”

  1. Dan (Rockford) says:

    A white Christmas would be nice–but it seems a long way away as I lie in bed and hear rain gusts coming down.

    1. Jack says:

      I always called it, The WETside !! ;-)

  2. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    Bill, ya gotta stop it with the week, week n a half forecast. Its
    not going to happen…

  3. jim says:

    Bill, for the record books how dry was Nov?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      0.49″ in G.R. – 3rd driest November ever. Muskegon also had the third driest November ever with 0.57″ and Lansing had the 2nd warmest November with 0.38″.

  4. Dan says:

    White Christmas is the name of the heading for this post. It is possible that the pattern could change and we may get some colder weather. Its also possible that we get more of the same. I’m leaning toward a nice cool down. We are going to officially be in the season of Winter by then! Lets hope the model runs and the pattern continue to favor a big change! In fact, early model indications for Friday point toward a mix of precip. You know what a degree or two difference could make!

  5. Thanks for all the interesting info Bill – I am hoping for some cold and snow this year as is Bittersweet up the road from me – they have been trying to make snow at night but the warm days haven’t been very cooperative. Seems we are in the same pattern as we were last year – all of Alaska and Europe is getting whacked with record cold and snow whilst we remain mild – hopefully some of that will rotate around to our side…

  6. Jen in Middleville says:

    Thanks for giving us hope that snow could still be on the way. I think it was the Japanese model that predicted the warm winter last year? What’s that one saying for us?

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Japanese model(geisha) say: NO snow for YOU! J/K…haven’t checked it’s long long range in awhile…will try later- or Cort will check in soon w/it.
      Hopefully we (snowlovers) will be able to say: Domo aregato Mr (JMA)Roboto!!

      1. Nathan says:

        Old Farmers Almanac was right last year too. But thats about it!

  7. Tim From Zeeland says:

    There is a big sense of frustration with many of us snow lovers in the blog. I know I was more than disappointed with last years no snow show. Now we are looking at three weeks of cool and damp, but not much in the way of a snow forecast. Promises of snow and cold just around the corner. Much like the carrot before the horse.

    There have been winter that have started off much like this one. Taken forever and a day to see the first inch of snow. This is 2012, not 2011. I have to believe we will see a good month or more of winter like weather. It’s just taking it’s sweet time in getting here. Other than the warmth we have now the temperatures will return to some what more normal the next few weeks. After that, we will just have to see.

    I want winter and the cover of snow just as bad as the next person. Hope it comes soon, if not I will enjoy the lower heating bills till then.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Most people would rather have the lower heating bill over the cold, snow and high heating bills.

      1. Jeff (Fremont) says:

        No, I’ll take the snow, the heating bill is the one thing I don’t mind spending money on. Regardless I am uncomfortably warm indoors if the temperature is 70 or more, so that helps the heat bill out as well.

      2. OWK says:

        Then move to the south.

        1. chuckles says:

          How about you move north?

  8. big Daddy BC says:

    The US sure could use that snow! Half the nation’s still in a climate-change induced drought!


    1. Mike M. says:

      Really? How is this drought different than all the other droughts we’ve had for the last 10,000 years? You’ll believe anything you fat, superstitious fool. Thank God we don’t have droughts like they used to have when CO2 was below 320ppm….


      I have an idea. Why don’t you make a sacrifice to your pagan gods or whatever the heck it is you worship and burn down a private business or something?

      1. Katie in Kentwood says:

        Wow mike, don’t be so rude…

        1. Mike M. says:

          Oh, don’t you worry. I’m only rude to BDBC and all of his sock puppets. He’s like a rented mule, just made to be beaten.

        2. Mark says:

          Trust me Katie, big Daddy has that and a whole bunch more coming, he’s one of the worst blog poster’s on the site.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Say, Mark, Mike’s cult prevents him from using things like logic or exercising simple reasoning skills. Animal abuse and blood sacrifices are still fair game though, it appears. But you seem like a fairly level headed man, one I’ve never had an exchange with, for that matter. How is it you’re casting disparaging remarks my way?

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Bottom line on “global warming”…

          1) The warming has stopped: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          2) Even the climate profiteers admit it’s stopped: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          3) CO2 emissions in the U.S. are FALLING: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UVtzjTfou3M

          4) The climate profiteers computer models are FAILING: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/314205289421361153/photo/1

          5) Alarmists are now becoming skeptics: a) http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2f4cc62e-5b0d-4b59-8705-fc28f14da388 b) http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite c) http://notrickszone.com/2013/02/17/meteorologist-dominik-jung-turns-skeptical-after-germany-sets-record-5-consecutive-colder-than-normal-winters/

          6) We can’t afford these “green energy” boondoggles: http://nation.foxnews.com/obama/2012/10/20/list-36-obama-s-taxpayer-funded-green-energy-failures

          7) Say “NO” to “skyrocketing” energy prices and “European level” gasoline ($9 a gallon).

    2. arcturus says:

      Go into the archives and you can compare the current drought map to that a year ago. It’s startling how much it has grown. They talk about drought induced effects during the spring/summer, there’s no reason to believe it’s any different in fall/winter.

      1. Mike M. says:

        Will we find it startling when the drought ends just like it always has for thousands of years? That’s the problem with you morons, you look at every normal occurrence of weather and convince yourselves it’s some dreadful “climate change” monster come to destroy us all.

        You primitive savages would have died of fright if you had experienced 1936, a year of supposedly safe and calm CO2 concentration. The US suffered the highest number of +40°C records AND the most -30°C records in our history in the SAME year. Now THAT was startling. You fools want to spend trillions so we can experience that again. No thanks.

        1. arcturus says:

          When they come with the straightjacket I suggest you leave peacefully.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          I did experience 1936.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Hilarious re-read. Everyone should follow this link and re-read Bill and the gang’s attempt to dismiss the first year of the great American drought. Little did they know it would continue on and on and on, partnering with the summer of 2012 to create the most unbearable June and July in American history. LOL Fools. We’re still in THAT drought!

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Total and complete politically-driven nonsense. The drought of the mid-30s was far worse than the drought of 2012:

          Here’s the drought map from 1934: http://www.siskiyous.edu/shasta/env/drought/1934in.gif Much worse than today and a much larger area affected in the mid 1930s.

          From NOAA: “In terms of percent area of country affected by drought (as measured by the Palmer Drought Index), the 1930′s Dust Bowl decade is the worst drought on record by spatial area,” says Richard Heim, a meteorologist and drought expert with NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center. “In July of 1934, 80 percent of the country was affected by drought,” says Heim. “At its peak the drought went from the West Coast, to the Great Plains, to the Midwest and the East Coast.” Estimates say 100 million acres of farmland were damaged. Farmers had to abandon their farms. Store owners had to abandon their businesses because farming dried up. Entire towns collapsed in the wake of this disaster. “My sense is 2012 still has a long way to go in terms of duration and severity to equal the drought of the 1930s,” says The Weather Channel’s Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro.

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          Like I said, follow that link and look at all of the idiotic side stepping of a reality that was only beginning. The drought started in 2010 and is still raging. 90% of Oklahoma is STILL in a drought! I don’t care how severe the dust bowl was, this one’s f*%$ing worse. Now imagine we managed our prairies the way they did in the thirties. Heck, Bill, we all know that land management issues were to blame for most of the damage done by that drought.


        6. Bill Steffen says:

          The drought of 2012 was in no way worse than the drought of the mid 1930s. Here’s the drought map from 1934: http://www.siskiyous.edu/shasta/env/drought/1934in.gif Much worse than today and a much larger area affected in the mid 1930s.

          From Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, State Climatologist of Texas: “There is no evidence that climate change contributed to the lack of rainfall, because rainfall has risen over the past century in the state.”

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        Here’s the drought map from 1934: http://www.siskiyous.edu/shasta/env/drought/1934in.gif Much worse than today and a much larger area affected in the mid 1930s.

        From NOAA: “In terms of percent area of country affected by drought (as measured by the Palmer Drought Index), the 1930′s Dust Bowl decade is the worst drought on record by spatial area,” says Richard Heim, a meteorologist and drought expert with NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center. “In July of 1934, 80 percent of the country was affected by drought,” says Heim. “At its peak the drought went from the West Coast, to the Great Plains, to the Midwest and the East Coast.” Estimates say 100 million acres of farmland were damaged. Farmers had to abandon their farms. Store owners had to abandon their businesses because farming dried up. Entire towns collapsed in the wake of this disaster. “My sense is 2012 still has a long way to go in terms of duration and severity to equal the drought of the 1930s,” says The Weather Channel’s Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro.

        1. arcturus says:

          Stats like that are interesting but to me what’s really significant is putting together the combination of events … string of abnormally warm months, low snowfall, lake levels back to near record (recorded) lows (so much for lake level cycles), # of record highs vs record lows, ocean temps and levels, ice sheet size, migratory patterns, deer population, west nile, etc. One can always find an event wetter, warmer, dryer, but when all factors are added together it provides a better key to global climate change.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Globally, snowfall has been increasing: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201210.gif That’s the opposite of what the alarmists forecast: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

          Only one Great Lake (Michigan-Huron) is at/near a record low level, and precipitation/evaporation isn’t enough to explain that dip. Over the past 22 months, we’ve had ABOVE average precipitation in G.R. Go here: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ Click on “Archive”, “FULL YEAR” “2011″ and “Michigan”.

          24 states (STILL – 75 YEARS LATER) have their all-time hottest temperatures from the 1930s. Grand Rapids has set 3 and tied one record high temperature in July since 1966. 15 of our record high temperatures for July are still from the 1930s. And…Grand Rapids has set 13 record LOW temperatures in July since 1966. Des Moines, Iowa hasn’t set a record high temperature in July since 1955!

          Ice sheet size: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png and http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

          Sea surface temperatures are cooler today than they were 1,000 years ago: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/images/l1_mobergnh2.gif One of the emails leaked in “Climategate” from Michael Mann to Phil Jones and company, Mann discussed the notion of expanding CRU charts to two millennia in an effort to “try to “contain” the putative “MWP.”” (how’s that for objective science!).

          Regarding the deer population…Here’s the DNR page: http://www.michigan.gov/dnr/0,4570,7-153-10363_10856_10905-171817–,00.html I don’t see CO2 on the list of threats to deer.

          The spread of West Nile can’t be blamed on CO2 anymore than the spread of Zebra Mussels from Lake Michigan to inland lakes. West Nile was first detected in the U.S. in College Park in NYC, an area with many incoming travelers from Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. Staten Is. is less than 2 miles from the Newark Arpt. and about a dozen miles from JFK and LGA.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          I just LOVE how Bill doesn’t ever want to acknowledge the temperature record from before IR satellites were circling high above, YET, he’s ready and willing to hold up the old mercury thermometers from the dust bowl days when it’s convenient! LOL

          Let’s not forget, Magoo, that this July was the official hottest month the northern hemisphere has EVER experienced. The sixteen months leading up to October were the HOTTEST consecutive string EVER experienced. The Arctic reached a RECORD low ice volume this year, and on and on and on. We don’t really care if the old Mercury thermometers from the dust bowl captured a couple records. The trend is crystal clear and we’re not going to believe the corporate rhetoric no matter how many times you post it.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Are you claiming that mercury thermometers are not accurate? Really?? Are you also claiming that the satellite IR data is inaccurate??

          The ANTARCTIC reached a record HIGH extent this September: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png (hint: watch how the Antarctic has been the mirror opposite of the Arctic in the satellite era)

          First it was the Climategate emails, that showed the deception, the conspiracy to break the (FOIA) law…then global temperatures have held steady for a decade. After that, you’re precious Proposal 2 was crushed. You had such high hopes for “skyrocketing” energy and utility prices and $9 a gallon European gas prices. The middle class doesn’t need your “skyrocketing” energy and utility bills and $9 gasoline. CO2 emissions are DROPPING: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1 and we’re rejecting the rabid rants of the climate profiteers.

        5. arcturus says:

          Sorry Bill, but if you’re inferring that all time records have to be broken to prove global climate change than that’s just plain delusional. Hottest summer, hottest July, string of above avg monthly temps, near record low water levels, etc are far more significant than cherry picking individual record breaking events. OMG ‘only’ Lake MI/Huron at record lows .. watch out for the cold snap!

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          You’ve got to be more open-minded, Arc. You’ve got to be a bit skeptical. If only Lake Michigan/Huron is near a record low (and the last time it was this low, it rose to a record high level over the next 2 decades) and if precipitation and evaporation can’t explain it (remember that Grand Rapids has actually had above average precipitation over the last 22-months), then maybe we should consider other possible (at least part) explanations beyond CO2.

          Look thru my links…global temperatures steady for a decade, carbon emissions in the U.S. going down, global accumulated tropical cyclone energy going down since the mid 1990s and the longest stretch in recorded history without a major hurricane (wind speed) hitting the U.S., the number of strong to severe tornadoes (EF3 to EF5) lower in the 2000s than in the 50s, 60s, or 70s.

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          Hey, arcturus, you need to be REAL open minded to read through Bill’s links and believe them. LOL They’re links to Exxon’s view of climate change.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          Actually, it’s NASA’s view of climate change:


          Global temperatures are NOT rising! They’ve been steady for over a decade.

          “Even Hansen admits it: The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          BigD – you’re in a shrinking minority of climate-profiteers, special-interest shills who can present no climate or weather credentials. Motivated by money and intent on making utility rates “skyrocket” and gasoline shoot to “European levels” (nine dollars a gallon).

          I’m here to stick up for the middle class, the poor, minorities, the elderly, those on fixed income, the disabled…all those who would be hurt by “skyrocketing” utility rates and $9 a gallon gasoline! Say “NO” to the climate profiteers! Say “NO” to “skyrocketing” utility rates. Say “NO” to $9 a gallon gasoline. Say “NO” to BigDaddy and his failed attempt to use “global warming” to hurt the U.S. economy and hard-working Americans!

    3. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Well, half the nation is in a drought anyway. Climate hasn’t changed in the better part of two decades. Temps are the same as 1998.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        63% of the nation is currently under a moderate drought or worse.

        According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, we are currently in the 2nd worse US drought in the last 100 years.

    4. dano (Norton Shores) says:

      Yeah right, “climate-change induced drought” You have got to be kidding me. Yeah and we have a big storm it’s “climate change induced” If we get too much snow, it’s climate change induced. If it’s too hot, it’s climate change induced. Big Daddy, your hopeless, our climate is always changing and always has been.

      Your posts are climate-changed induced.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Yes they are, dano. Yes they are.

        And if our climate was always changing, we wouldn’t call it climate. Climates are just averages. When we vary too far from those averages, the averages change. We call that climate change. Lately, we’ve been veering farther and farther off those averages. In fact, NOAA has officially changed our average by +.5 degrees! SO, in the future, when great big events like hurricanes hitting New York City, or two year droughts that cost billions and won’t go away, or winters that look like nice long autumns, or summers with temps over 108 degrees, or melting ice caps, or 80 degree weeks in March occur, I think it’s fair to say that’s unusual and worthy of inspection.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          We’ve inspected it…when high temperatures this past July are COOLER than they were in the 1930s (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_temperature_extremes)…when accumulated global tropical cyclone energy is going DOWN and not up (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PDO.svg) and the U.S. has went the longest period of time in 100 years without a major hurricane hit (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/story/2012-08-14/hurricane-prepared-katrina/57192442/1)…when the current drought can’t come close to matching droughts of 75 years ago (“”In terms of percent area of country affected by drought (as measured by the Palmer Drought Index), the 1930′s Dust Bowl decade is the worst drought on record by spatial area,” says Richard Heim, a meteorologist and drought expert with NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center.”) When we have a near record LOW in torandic events (http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/2012-could-break-record-for-fewest-tornadoes)…..it’s time to ignore the ranting of a small minority of climate profiteers.

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Those events you have stated, are not uncommon. Good grief, I remember back in the early 90′s a stretch of high 70′s, low 80′s for about a week. So what , not a big deal. You seem to only refer to warmer than normal readings, but never mention record cold, as happened last year in much of Europe, and Alaska. Your theory is, if it’s above average in MI, and the lower 48, it’s a worldwide man made disaster out of control.

        3. Brian(Grandville) says:

          * In March

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          The early ’90s? Global warming has been in full swing since the ’80s. The point isn’t what’s happening outside your window. The point is what’s happening around the world. Averages are changing as significant events increase in frequency. Yes, it can be cold. Yes it can be snowy or hot or rainy. What’s significant are changes that happen outside of what we call ‘natural variability.’ 108 last summer broke records and is therefor outside of what’s natural around here. Taken alone, extreme heat can happen, but taken with all the other events, it tells a story.
          Hide your head in the sand with Bill and the rest of the gang if you want, but it’s your children that will pay.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Significant events ARE NOT increasing!!! Global temperatures have been steady for a decade!!! We hit 104 last summer in G.R., NOT 108…the 108 was in July 1936 – 76 YEARS AGO…and it hasn’t been as warm in 76 years!!


        6. big Daddy BC says:

          By generation do you mean ‘party’? Because it’s the GOP that’s stolen all that cash. Bush created a war just to run create a manufacturing boon for corporate America. He privatized half our fighting force to give tax dollars to corporate America. He paid for it all with a credit card. On top of it, he cut taxes! LOL Your right, our children are inheriting a pile of debt from you and yours as well as a environmental disaster.


          I’m not sure, but this looks hotter than it’s supposed to be.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Everyone supported the first Iraq War. All you leftists supported the war in Afghanistan.

          The war of the second war in Iraq was a small amount next to entitlements! Much of that money would have been spent anyway. The soldiers get paid, whether they are in Bagdad or Fort Bragg. The military is 18% of the Federal Budget (http://nationalpriorities.org/media/uploads/publications/presidents_budget_fy2013/chart_3.jpg) and there’s a lot of stuff in the military budget that you wouldn’t think would be there, like money for breast cancer research.

          You and your buddy, Al Gore, who’s now worth more money than Mitt Romney (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/08/al-gore-mitt-romney_n_2432534.html) after he sold his TV network that nobody was watching to the oil sheiks in Qatar: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/08/current-staffers-al-gore-al-jazeera_n_2432512.html, and all the cronies who are making millions off the U.S. taxpayers with green energy scams: http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/news/target_8/Volt-no-jolt-LG-Chem-employees-idle and http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-18/news/ct-met-kass-0918-20110918_1_solyndra-loan-guarantee-obama-fundraisers-obama-white-house and http://nation.foxnews.com/obama/2012/10/20/list-36-obama-s-taxpayer-funded-green-energy-failures …yeah…all you climate profiteers and scandal-ridden schemers who want to force “skyrocketing” utility rates and “European level” $9 a gallon gasoline on the poor and middle class, the hard-working minorities and elderly of this country…they know I’m on their side and you’re on the side of failure and bankruptcy.

    5. OWK says:

      “Sometimes even the wisest of men and machines can be in error.”

  9. Storm warming says:

    What we are experiencing now was “modeled” to be the opposite by some “models” a few weeks ago. I think any chance of a cold shot is a long shot If hope springs eternal then let’s just enjoy the spring like weather.

    December used to be a snowy month. This is a new normal

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I know its been cold and snowy in parts of the northern hemisphere and as long as it that way we have a chance of getting a pattern change that can bring that cold and snow here, BUT there is no guarantee that it will happen and even if it dose happen it could happen next spring or next summer and all we would get is a cold spring or a cold summer!
    That said I feel 100% certain that at some point this winter that GR will see snow on the ground. Of course if we dont then that would be one for the record books and that too would be OK.
    52 here with cloudy skies.

    1. OWK says:

      Oh wise one! Predicting snow in a northern climate! WE ARE NOT WORTHY!

  11. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    BTW I know its Accuweather but in their todays 15 day guess now have no cold nor snow in the next 15 days and that now takes us to mid December. So at this time their thinking is what you see is what we will get.

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      Remember: accuweather predicted that last year would be extremely snowy and cold….lol.

  12. Kevin says:

    I’ll let it snow on Christmas Eve and melt the day after Christmas, to satisfy those who celebrate the holiday. Then we can go back to warm weather.

  13. Dan says:

    Accuweather? Really, I thought Henry M was predicting a pattern change with plenty of cold and snow for us within the next couple of weeks?! I also saw where Joe B was predicting something similar. I realize that Joe B is no longer with Accuweather.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Henry H most of the time is way out in left field and for Joe B I no longer get is long ranger guess but yes both have been predicting a pattern change now for some time and I am sure at some point there will be a change but the question is when?? It may be coming in two week but then again it may be two months!

      1. Dan says:

        Understood, they all can only speculate on what may happen! If November is any indicator of what is to come then, we may never get into a winter pattern for the entire season.
        I know, that the Lakes and the Forests really rely on a decent snow pack. Then, come Spring when it melts it has a huge effects on the moisture in the ground, etc, etc! These are good thing for the environment! I am hopeful that we get a decent share of snow fall this season! We also benefit from periods of below freezing temps.
        Just saying, I do hope Winter will pack a decent punch!

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Accuweather’s 15 day forecast is completely automated and fluctuates wildly from run to run.

      1. fixxxer says:

        And so is everything joe.b says.

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Way to not make any sense at all fiz. Good one.

        2. fixxxer says:

          It makes perfect sense. Your just blinded by his “awesomeness”.

        3. michael g (SE GR) says:

          So you’re saying his forecast is automated, and fluctuates? Are you familiar with the meaning of those words?

  14. wackyred-Allendale says:

    Hoping for good weather Christmas week headed to Ga.Got caught up in the accident in London, Ky on I-75 over Thanksgiving. What a mess.Happy Holidays to all.

  15. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Here we go again with the garbage models 3 weeks out… when they haven’t even been right a week out.

    Can you see say WARM for the US? Here’s a map of the departure from average highs for today. Only one of the locations is below average! And many are 15-30 degrees above average.


    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Lol @ Miami…

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      The global temperature anomaly for 2012 (unadjusted NASA data) is currently at +0.049 degree. So a whopping 5/100ths of a degree warmer than average. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        ?? Wasn’t talking global. Just talking about the US heat wave. But 2012 is expected to be the 9th warmest year recorded.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Yeah, if you can check my link above, it shows the warmth over the Lower 48 states this year, plus the Arctic. Most of the world has been near or cooler than average in 2012.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Your link is to Maue’s website. He’s Limbaugh’s boy. I don’t think we can trust him for fair a fair unbiased look at climate. He’s another fossil fuel stooge. How about NOAA?

          “The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–October 2012 was the eighth warmest such period on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average.”


          What’s wrong with you, lying to your viewers like a used car salesman?!

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          So…we should trust you?? A proven liar??!! LOL!! You said that Romney was a polygamist. He’s not. You lied.

          Dr. Maue’s graphs or his character have never been questioned by anyone with a knat’s naval’s worth of credibility. He uses the satellite IR data that is available on the web. You can plot it yourself if you like.

          As far as I know, Maue was mentioned once on Limbaugh’s show…I should get Limbaugh to mention you…then you’d have to discount yourself!! LOL

          I don’t trust “Handcuffs” Hansen’s “adjusted” data. He’s a political zealot who’s been arrested at least twice: http://blogs.nature.com/news/2010/09/nasas_james_hansen_in_handcuff.html

          Global temperatures have held steady for a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif and http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325 and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

          From Oct. 2012: “Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.”

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2Dx3v995b

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          Trust me or not, it doesn’t matter. I’m not giving anyone information and asking them to believe it blindly. I always give links to professional sites. You, on the other hand, pretend to be an expert although you have no experience or credentials in this field. The links you provide often trial off to fossil-fuel sponsored blogs or paid-for scientists like Maue – Limbaugh’s boy, or Exxon-Spencer, or that uneducated idiot Watts.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          The truth is that carbon emissions in the U.S. are FALLING: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UL1vz2fe_0o

          Global temperatures are holding steady: http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325

          Global temperatures are a better fit to ocean currents. When the AMO and PDO were both warm…temperatures went up. Now the PDO is cool and temperatures have leveled off. The AMO will likely turn cool in 5-10 years. That’ll be the nail in the coffin for the climate profiteers.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures have been flat for more than a decade now:


          The climate profiteers computer models are


      2. Steve G says:

        Bill, its not easy to be more right wing than Fox News, but you are managing! http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/11/30/hard-authoritative-evidence-of-climate-change-b/191610

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          But Steve, Fox is “fair and balanced”. Again, here’s the Antarctic icecap: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png It shows a steady increase since the mid 1980s. It doesn’t even get down to “average extent” at the end of the summer! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png

          Here’s a different perspective on the Nov. 30 paper: http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/new-ice-surveys-finds-slower-ice-sheet-melting

        2. Steve G says:

          I’m sure you are joking about Fox being fair and balanced. MSNBC and Fox are both catering to partisan emotion for ratings, we all know that.

        3. Irish coffee says:

          In terms of “fairness”, Fox entertains alternative points of view FAR more frequently than MSNBC.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          Oh, come on. Now I know that you’re kidding. FOX NEWS is a corporate tool and it’s working. White guys are angrier than ever. Too bad there aren’t enough of them to win an election anymore. Sorry, Mitt! LOL

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          MSNBC is a corporate tool! And, where are the minorities on MSNBC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMdPTpOyUk4

  16. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    You can just stroll down and see the departures from the expected lows and there is not one on that map!!!


    with one as much as +30. PS if this link dose not work just use the one from Travis and stroll down the pull down.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Note the map should change each day

  17. Kris says:

    I’m curious – and please, no haters because this is an honest question – when the Japan earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit on January 1, 2010, it was inferred that the earth was moved slightly on its axis. If that is the case, could it possibly be that there was a significant shift in the weather? I know, we’ve had a lot of earthquakes, but I seem to remember that discussion about this one in particular.

    Thoughts and again, please no haters or political commentary if you can help it.

    1. Kris says:

      Oops, sorry – it wasn’t on January 1, 2010. Sorry about that incorrect date.

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      No. Any shift in the earths axis was FAR to minor to affect weather patterns.

    3. Cort S. says:

      According to this article, the earthquake’s shift in mass toward the pole caused the earth’s rotation to speed up just a tiny bit: it shortened the length of a day by 1.6 microseconds. It shifted the earth’s figure axis by about 6 inches. This is different than our north-south axis angle. The figure axis affects how the earth wobbles as it rotates.

      This earthquake would have a negligible effect on our weather an climate.

      Some earthquakes may shift mass toward the equator, which would slow down the earth’s rotation and increase our days by microseconds. So that would counteract what the Japan earthquake did. Regardless, this is a much smaller effect than something like tidal deceleration has on our day length. The ocean tides caused by the moon are acting to slow down the earth’s rotation and increase our day length, by about 2.3 milliseconds per day each century. A millisecond is a thousand times greater than a microsecond. But even this would have a negligible effect on our weather and climate.

      Things like Mikankovitch cycles can affect earth’s climate on times scales of many thousands of years. These are interesting; go ahead and read about them.

      1. INDY says:


  18. Barry in Zeeland says:

    For those looking for a white crithmeth, enjoy holiday lights, AND if you love hunting, you’ll have a good laugh at this:


    1. Brian(Grandville) says:


    2. Jack says:

      Lol.. Merry CHRISTmas..!! :-)

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      That’s awesome.

      1. Skot says:

        Did you type, “CHRIST”.????? oooooooOOOOOOOO. I m tellinggggGGGGGG!

        1. Jack says:

          Shoot Skot, That’s Who’s Birthday We Celebrate ! ;-)

    4. bluewind says:

      Joe B just put out a video of him putting together his forecast:

    5. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

      that is an amazing picture.. LOVE hunting

  19. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Just got back from my walk and I am sure ever warm December this has happened (I remember some in December of 1998) but not this many!!! What am I talking about?? Today I counted 23 dandelions in full bloom. It seems to me that back in 1998 there may have been 3 or 4 (if that ) in bloom. Anyway has anyone else noticed the late fall flowering of the dandelions?

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      I so badly want to tell accuweather to change their name because they are o where near accurate !

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Whoops meant to make that a separate post sorry slimjim

      2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:


  20. John (Holland) says:

    Here’s hoping!

  21. INDY says:


  22. Nathan Anthony says:

    Bill, is your winter forecast coming anytime soon?

  23. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Is this dense fog tonight supposed to be bad because there are no headlines yet?

  24. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    So what was the high in GR today? Very close to seeing 3 consecutive 60 degree days in December… that’s crazy!

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Still not seeing a cool down in sight… Above avg temps thru Dec 16


      1. Much of that near normal and above will be in the 8-10 day period with much much colder air at the back end of the 8-14 day outlook.

        1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Check out Alaska. Until that ridge of cold air moves, we won’t see any arctic air.

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Actually, that automated outlook, pulled directly from the GFS which we all agree is nearly worthless, says there is about a 35% chance of above normal temps.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Its currently 51. Felt warmer last night than today did.

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      57. It will struggle to make one day of 60

  25. fixxxer says:

    This crazy weather is why everyone is sick. Either stay mild or get cold. This stomach bug is just rampaging in my home the past few weeks. One kids better now the other one has it. This is another reason i enjoy summer and no school.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      People get sick because of viruses. And from weakened immune systems caused by sitting on their fat butts all day.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Mike your an offcial idiot. Jealous much?

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Yes fiz, I am jealous of your ability to endlessly spout misinformation. I wish I did nothing but sit around all day, troll Bill’s Blog, and enjoy nothing. If ONLY I could be more like you.

        2. INDY says:

          lololololololo so true! INDYY…

      2. INDY says:

        Just Do It!! INDYY….

  26. Jacob G says:

    Just some quick updates on top 5 driest November Precip in GRR from NWS.

    Grand Rapids Area
    Rank Value Year
    1 0.06 1904
    2 0.43 1936
    3 0.49 2012
    4 0.63 1962
    5 0.76 1939

    Here are those winters and snowfall totals.

    1904/05 53.7
    1936/37 33.8
    1962/63 89.7
    1939/40 55.8

    I don’t have El Nino/La Nino stats prior to 1950 but winter of 62/63 was neutral similar to our current setup. Also the PDO was negative and AMO was negative. We are currently have a negative PDO but a positive AMO. The 1962 Atlantic hurricane season was the least quiet since 1939.

    1. Jacob G says:

      The 1962 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active since 1939.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Now if we could only believe in analog years. But then taking only 5 years out of the Earths billions of years and thinking this year will be similar is really no way to guess at what may or may not becoming. If it was that easy then ever one (well almost ever one) could do a long range guess.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        We don’t have enough years of record. Satellite data only goes back to 1979 for the entire globe. 100 or 200 years down the road, they’ll be able to make much better seasonal forecasts by looking at previous years with similar conditions.

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        Slim, do you really see climate averages as having to span billions of years? NOAA uses a thirty year span.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          That’s right…the average is 1981-2000. So, anything that bigD posts with a 1971-2000 or worse yet a 1961-1990 average is woefully outdated and used only to advance “climate profiteering”.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Up above I post something from NOAA. They use the century average when speaking on climate change issues. The ’81 average has been adjusted because of global warming. LOL You can’t have it both ways, Magoo!

          “The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–October 2012 was the eighth warmest such period on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average.”

          Hmm. I wonder what the 4.6 billion year temperature average would be for West Michigan? LOL

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          NOAA has always used the most recent 3 completed decades for an average base. No one “adjusted” the normals. Read: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html

          Global temperatures have been steady for a decade: http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image_thumb5.png?w=580&h=325 Top climatologists acknowledge the obvious:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.

          Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2Dx3v995b

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          When they switched most recently, they had to include the three hottest decades thereby raising the average. Every time you talk about ‘average’ now, you’re talking about global warming average. Hypocrite.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          So, you’re calling NOAA hypocrites? They didn’t “have to include”. That’s been their policy for decades. Read it again: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html

          We’ve had a warm AMO AND a warm PDO – the PDO has gone cool, so global temperatures have leveled off: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

        6. big Daddy BC says:

          No. I’m calling you a hypocrite. I don’t have to read that explanation again. I’m the one who first linked it. You cut and pasted it from me! The point is that they use those averages for a point of comparison, but in discussions of climate change they switch to the long-term century average. You don’t because you’re biased.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          No matter what base period you use for an average…it’s obvious that global temperatures are NOT going up now. They’ve been steady for over 10 years. NASA data clearly snows that:


          Even James Hansen admits it:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade….” – James Hansen et al.

          And scientists who were alarmists are now becoming skeptics:




  27. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Boyne City webcam shows all their snow has fully melted already:


    Feel bad for the ski resorts up north.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Still some snow (and ice on the lake) at Twin Lakes: http://www.johndee.com/ncn/twinlakes_ncn.htm

      Ski areas make a lot of their money over Christmas Break. If they are up and running by Dec. 15th and they get a solid 2 1/2 or 3 months, they’ll be happy.

  28. INDY says:

    No more winter for Michigan thanks to quake Japan ours seasons are on a change now spring will be the norm in Michigan 24/7 with hot hot hot summers u will have fly air Alaska if u wan’t snow we may hit 65+ next week!! Drink more sprites andd feel right tonight ….INDYY…..

  29. sherwood484 says:

    so a little snow this winter, and no severe weather to speak of again this spring right, well I guess if that is what we have to look forward to then Michigan’s weather is getting extremely boring.

  30. Nathan says:

    Updates on the dense fog tonight please?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Advisory out now for the counties that border Indiana…they’ll probably have to expand the counties covered.

  31. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Just killed a mosquito in our house IN DECEMBER. I haven’t even bothered to change the oil in the snowblower yet.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I seen several flies and 23 dandelions on my walk earler today.

  32. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

    Beijing Climate Center joins other far east models with the major blocking look for winter pic.twitter.com/rTZkAttc

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Beijing model? lol He’s really running out of models now!

  33. Tim says:

    So would the 23rd-28th be our first shot at air cold enough for significant lake effect?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      No – I can’t give you a specific date yet for sure…but I’ll bet we get at least a little snow before that time…maybe as early as early next week.

  34. OWK says:

    Over the Keel Mountains,
    Meets an ape with human speech.
    The ape asks,
    “What clings to you?
    Bear it—you cannot.
    Accept it—you cannot.
    But hidden—it is from you.
    Recite its name.”

    1. OWK says:

      Yep. Shadow for 100pts or you could have guessed “Your own name” for 75 pts.

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