December 4th, 2012 at 2:43 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Click the map to enlarge.  These are the high temperatures from Monday.  Our 65 in G.R. set a new record for Dec. 3, beating 12/3/1998 by one degree.  Since it was 65 at midnight, we have also set a record high temperature for today (Tue.)  These are the warmest December days since 2001 and by my count the 7th and 8th times we’ve reached 65 in December.  The first 4 days of December are going to average more than 15 degrees warmer than average.  To get back to average, the whole rest of the month would have to average 2 degrees cooler than average.     Muskegon also set a daily record high at 65 for Monday (they were down to 58 at midnight).  Other high temperatures of note Monday were 68 in S. Haven and 72 at Midway Airport in Chicago.  It’ll be cooler today, but still more than 10 degrees warmer than average.   The NAM (caribou) gives G.R. a high of 50 this afternoon, 37 on Weds. and 44 on Thurs.   The GFS has 38 on Weds., 42 Thurs., 45 Friday and 48 on Saturday.   The GFS has 0.38″ of rain on Friday, while the European has a paltry 0.01″.  The big model difference is on Sunday, as the European takes G.R. into the warm air during the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s and 1.27″ of rain.  The GFS keeps us in the cool air, mid 30s, with the possibility of about 1-3″ of snow Sunday night/Monday.   After that the GFS has highs in the mid-upper 30s, so it’s not bringing down any true Arctic Air, at least on this model run.

Also a major hurricane, super typhoon Bopha has slammed into the Philippine Island of Mindanao (province of Davao). The storm caused a few injures, downed trees and tore roofs off.  There has also been flooding and landslides.

151 Responses to “Tuesday”

  1. OWK says:

    It cooled off fast! Thanks for that link the other day,Cort.

    1. Cort S. says:

      No problem. Glad you like it.

    2. Paul says:

      Does anyone know if Kyle Underwood is still working for WOOD TV 8? Thanks

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Yes…he’s been on vacation…back tomorrow.

        1. Paul says:

          Thank you Bill! Hey, did you hear that hard working people in Michigan may have a choice on whether they want to give millions of dollars to union bosses or not?


          Finally, rights for hard working people.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Go here: http://www.mackinac.org/16278 and you’ll see former WOOD reporter Anne Schieber explain Right to Work.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          You’ll notice that Bill’s link is to the Mackinac Center, DeVos’s billionaire institution that’s dedicated to funneling tax dollars into the hands of the top 1%. Right to Work (for less) states, on average, have 11.6% lower salaries than labor states like Michigan.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Yeah, and you link to far left sites like Think Progress, run by the guy who wants to build a mosque at Ground Zero. Salaries are 11.6% lower in Right to Work states? Whose salaries? The union bosses? Look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income Indiana is a Right to Work State. Per capita income is higher in Indiana then in Michigan (and Ohio and Kentucky), which is not a right to work state. Seems to me the unions are doing just fine: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,472304,00.html

        5. Paul says:

          I am very proud to be a Michigander today. Thank you Governor Snyder and House and Senate Republicans, our state is coming back.

  2. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Bill, the link on the map is busted.

  3. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

    Jesu, Joy of mans’s desiring…………..snow this weekend.


    1. Jack says:

      Wbwtsbc: Your Killing Us with Boring Music Links… Leave The Music To Yours Truly…. Geezzzzzz

    2. Jack says:

      For Those Wishing For Snow Listen to. This : Free – Wishing Well – YouTube

      ► 3:31► 3:31

  4. Tim From Zeeland says:

    Bill, do you have date as to when the latest GR has seen it’s first inch of snow?

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I was going to ask that very question. I am sure its much later then we are at now (maybe).

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        While it may not have been the latest it looks like back in 1998 it may have been December 21 for the first inch snow fall. So we are still not in the area just yet.

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          BTW here is some info on the first snow fall dates from the other side of the state.



      2. It’s kind of funny that here in the center of no lake effect snow capital of Michigan, we’ve already seen that with the 1.5 inches that fell on Sunday November 25th

  5. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Amazingly mild, no snow yet, no snow in sight, hung all the chrithmeth lights with the kids last night, and made my fantasy football playoffs (thanks in part to the Lions). Life is good! Now if we could only get some Red Wings hockey going again……

    1. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

      i bet you hung those lights in shorts and tshirts!

  6. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    The 06Z GFS now shows the weaker storm for late in the weekend producing about 2-5″ of snow across the area. It no longer has the big rain/snow producer it had been showing on previous runs. European still shows a strong storm (rain to snow)early next week, but only a brief shot of cold air to follow. I would side with a weaker storm unless there was an intense intrusion of arctic air coming in behind the system.

  7. Kris says:

    What’s been more accurate so far – the GFS or the European model?

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Neither. Anything out past 3-4 days has been problamatic the last couple winters.

      1. Kris says:

        Then why do forecasters keep using them? I miss the “old days” where we didn’t really know what was coming and it just hit us overnight. Go to sleep with it green, wake up and it’s snowy white. Those were the days…

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      I always think it’s important to look back and see how models did.

      From Bill’s heading, “A Little Sunshine,” the GFS on 11/28 was predicting 47,54,56 for the start of December (less than 3 three days away from the model run date). Actual temps: 60,58,65.

      That’s a miss of 13 degrees on a run that was less than 3 days out.

  8. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    I’m thinking 2012 is now a warmer start to December than even 1998 was. Given the warm temperatures at midnight, GR is going to have 4 consecutive days looking something like this 60-58-65-62 to start December.

    Not quite the heatwave we saw in March, or the 101 and 104 temps we saw in July, but probably the third biggest temperature event this year.

    Looks wet this weekend, but probably all rain or wet snowflakes that won’t stick. WXYZ out of Detroit is forecasting 50 for next Monday.

    John Dee saying no snow for lower Michigan for at least another week. When the temps start to rise in Alaska and that arctic air starts to move, then the snow will finally come.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      For a comparison here is the record for the first 15 days of December 1998 in GR.

      DEC-98 FOR GRAND RAPIDS, MI (804′) LAT=42.9N LON= 85.5W

      1 54 37 46 40 28 34 +12 0.00 0.0 0 19
      2 57 46 52 39 28 34 +18 0.00 0.0 0 13
      3 64 53 59 39 27 33 +26 0.00 0.0 0 6
      4 58 54 56 39 27 33 +23 0.12 0.0 0 9
      5 60 49 55 38 27 32 +23 0.02 0.0 0 10
      6 60 40 50 38 26 32 +18 0.84 0.0 0 15
      7 40 32 36 37 26 32 +4 trace 0.0 0 29
      8 42 31 37 37 26 31 +6 0.00 0.0 0 28
      9 47 26 37 37 25 31 +6 0.00 0.0 0 28
      10 39 28 34 36 25 31 +3 0.00 0.0 0 31
      11 48 30 39 36 25 30 +9 0.00 0.0 0 26
      12 47 30 39 36 25 30 +9 0.00 0.0 0 26
      13 50 23 37 35 24 30 +7 0.00 0.0 0 28
      14 44 21 33 35 24 29 +4 0.00 0.0 0 32
      15 49 30 40 35 24 29 +11 0.00 0.0 0 25


      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        December of 1998 was warm, but we had that big storm around New Years and the first couple weeks of January were brutal with a lot of snow, wind and frigid temps. After that, it warmed up and in Febrary, we were up near or at 70 if I recall.

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          Thats right Jim, the first two weeks of January 1999 were cold and very snowy and that January GR recorded 46.8″ of snow and almost all of that fell in the first 10 days. At one point GR had over 20″ of snow on the ground.

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          As a 3-dog owner, I should keep track of “grocery bags”…LOL!! Every dog owner has those awful spring thaw days when they head out to clean up the lawn :-( For a winter like last year, it’s not too bad, because there were so many snowless days throughout winter to keep the yard cleaned. After a tough winter, however, with consistent snowpack – the cleanup job is epic and requires MANY grocery bags….LOL!!

        3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          I was only 9 when we had all that snow, but we had so much it was nearly as tall as me, and we could let our dog outside without a chain because he could only use the paths we shoveled for him.

        4. GunLakeDeb says:

          Travis – I’m picturing a mouse running through a maze!!

        5. Mike in Hamilton says:

          Anyone else remember that gas was under a dollar a gallon back in December ’98?

          We left right before that big snowstorm to go to Florida. It was 15 in Gainesville to second morning we were there! The cold followed us all the way down… When we got home, you could see my car under the mound of snow!

        6. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Deb, thanks for the mental picture……… Lol

      2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        So yep, the first four days of December 2012 were warmer than 1998.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Only if you look at high temperatures for Dec. 1-4. Low temperatures for Dec. 1-4 were significantly cooler in 2012 than in 1998. Mean temperatures for Dec. 1-4 were 16 degrees above average. Mean temperatures for Dec. 1-4, 1998 were 22 degrees warmer than average. From Nov. 29 – Dec. 6, 1998, the mean temperature was 22.1 degrees warmer than average.

    2. Irish coffee says:

      Fwiw, John Dee looks to have lost his snowpack(bare ground via AlCam)..vs. the 4-7″ loss(off 13″O.G @ prediction time last week) he had anticipated…just sayin’

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Current US snowcover pretty much nonexistent except in the mountains out west


        1. John (Holland) says:

          Yet it’s frustratingly close… only a few hundred miles away.

      2. Irish coffee says:

        John “reports” 1-2″ OG as of 10 am….but snow cam(alcam) shows nothing OG(sans a couple of patches back in woods)..maybe he measured a bank on the side of his driveway?

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looks like that high in Muskegon was a all time record high for December there.

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Flint hit a record high of 65 this morning.

  10. Irish coffee says:

    66 at 1 am in South Haven…or warmer than typical July/Aug low.. in December is just …WRONG!

  11. Dan says:

    Snow, will you arriving in West Michigan anytime soon?
    We are currently 18 days away from the first “official” day of Winter.
    I remember the mid to late 70s and early 80s, we would get snow from approximately late November and it would stay cold so we would keep snow pack all the way through the Winter. We would even get a couple of late season snowstorms in early April.

  12. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Looks like were in for a pattern change beginning next week :)

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Not so fast. 12Z GFS no longer showing a big storm….just a nuisance storm with no snow passing off to the south and east. A little colder, but then a warm up to follow. This pattern simply will not change.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        We’re heading into a cooler pattern and I don’t see what your saying because it looks like there will be more and more smaller to bigger storms over the next few weeks we may have another briefed warm up but it looks to be getting cooler over the next few weeks!

      2. Sprites says:

        Oh really, Jim? Seems funny that just because one model run (the 12z… known for being the outlier) doesn’t show a storm after the last three or four have, you can conclude that the pattern won’t change? Just this morning everyone was feeling pretty good about a pattern change. Im sure the storm will be back on the 18z. Lets see some model consistency before you jump to conclusions on the entire pattern.

        1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

          Who knows….maybe it will be back. I’m just stating what the models show. 06Z and 12Z GFS with nothing but some warm ups and coold downs….12Z Canadian shows the storm going through Michigan with more rain than snow. Lets see what the Euro shows.

  13. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Not insulting anyone here, but it seems like everyone just keeps posting the same thing over and over. “Looks like a pattern change in about 2 weeks!” Then 2 weeks come and it’s, “well, looks like a pattern change in about 2 weeks!” Then 2 weeks come and repeat over and over. We did this all last winter, and now we’ve been doing it again for almost 2 months now. Pretty obvious we are stuck in over a year long rut now, and I don’t think it’s going to change unless something drastic happens.

    1. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

      yeah global warming has hit us in full force, and unless we change our environmental state of mind, we will be burning up within the next 10 years…

      1. Storm waning says:

        Is the climate changing? Yes. Is Michigan warming? Looks like it, sure

        Is it man induced? ……. Mmmmmmmmm

        The pestosky stone is petrified coral. Beneath our state is the large pinnacle reef, the remnants from an ancient salt water sea. Palm trees grew here Etc etc

        This was caused by?…. Mankind?

        It’s called climate change because the climate is always changing, and now it’s trending warmer. With or with out us.

        1. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

          but we sure are not helping it out…

      2. Brad says:

        Storm waning…think plate tectonics. We weren’t always at this latitude.

        1. hsoJ in Zeeland says:

          Good point! We all used to live on Pangea!

        2. Storm waning says:

          Point taken, but….10,000 years ago there were glaciers at our present latitude.

          Until the Mammoths began their Industrial Age and raised CO2 levels!

        3. Brad says:

          Are you arguing there are not different mechanisms for warming?

      3. Jeff Gordon fan says:

        I think we should build more race tracks so more people can burn more gas through there race cars… And I think we should ban all electric vehicles…not really, but saying man is causing this sounds so ridiculous its unreal…

        1. Brad says:

          That’s why we have scientists.

      4. Mike in Hamilton says:

        Speaking of repeating the same tired lines over and over…

  14. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    I wouldn’t get exictied about anything until Friday at the earliest

  15. Mr. Negative says:

    Enjoy the memories of our nearly perfect winter last year, and the slow start to this winter. The snow, wind chill, dangerous roads, astronomical heating bills, etc, that define a routine Michigan winter will be here before we know it. Ironically, Mother Nature will coduct her winter business without “consulting” with those special humans who are convinced “they” control the destiny of this planet.

  16. Brad says:

    Remember Bill’s analog year chatter about 1976/1977? Now, we’re begging for 1998 to be warmer than this winter. Folks, I think apples and cherries will fetch a fortune next year, not to mention anything coming out of the Plains. We are going to bake again.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      December 1-3, 2012: 15 degrees warmer than average

      Nov. 29 – Dec. 6, 1998: 22 degrees warmer than average

  17. arcturus says:

    Anyone know when our local meteorologists last predicted a warmer than normal winter?

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      How about never. That kind of forecast wouldn’t jive with his political ideologies.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Speaking of, Michigan’s unemployment is up to 9.1%. Despite all those tax breaks for rich people and corporations, we’re still well below the 7.8% national average. In GR it’s gone up by 1.7% in the last year.

        What gives? When’s the trickling down gonna begin???


        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          OK – this is too good to ignore:

          There IS something they say “runs downhill” and it ain’t pretty ;-) And it’s been running downhill on us for a while now…..

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Maybe it’s time to become a Right to Work state. States that have Right to Work have lower unemployment and are creating more jobs now. Look at the success Indiana has had since they became a Right to Work state. Nothing like being pro-choice: http://www.mackinac.org/16278

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          They also have wages that are 11.6 % lower. When you cripple labor, you lose benefits, safety in the work place, and get less money.

          Point is, all these radical tax changes that shifted the burden from the rich to the middle class raised unemployment. Now you’d have us lower the wages for those who actually have jobs? Sickening.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income Indiana is a Right to Work state. Michigan is not. See which state has a higher average income. Indiana is also ahead of Ohio and Kentucky, which are not Right to Work states. You were the guy who supported forcing home health workers into the SEIU not just without a vote, but without their knowledge!

  18. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Henry Margusity thinks we’ll get a snowstorm here next Monday/Tuesday. That is the kiss of death. You can pretty much bank on it being 50 and rain.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      yup no chance now kinda like the SI curse

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        12Z Euro. keeps the storm weaker and further south and east. Thanks Henry.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        From JB so it should be opposite =) Cold is coming!

        1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

          His point is that he is not buying the GFS and predicts cold is coming. Same prediction for the last 15 months.

  19. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Detroit’s take on the storm for Monday/Tuesday:


  20. Scott (Belmont) says:

    Sunny and 50 degrees! Where is all of this cold and snow that most people have been predicting for about the last 4 weeks?

  21. Jeff Gordon fan says:

    I have tried asking this many times before but I dont think my post went through. But do you think this will be a repeat of last year? Or will that cold air come down over Michigan soon? I would love another snowy winter!

    1. Jack says:

      Maybe and Maybe !! ;-)

    2. Scott (Belmont) says:

      Anybody’s guess. Just flip a coin.

  22. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Milwaukee could even get their first significant snow before us what’s wrong with Michigan?

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Yes at least the last couple years! Milwaukee doesn’t usually receive their first significant snow until after we do!

  23. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    WOW Accuweather has over 1″ of ice for me around the 18-19 see that is why they are not accurate I sure hope they aren’t on that situation that sure would be a lot of ice we wouldn’t have power for weeks!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      That will change tomorrow, then again the next day and yet again the day after that.

    2. Scott (Belmont) says:

      I believe that the extended forecast from ACCUWEATHER is based on the latest GFS long range model runs. The long range GFS model runs have not been very accurate lately.

      1. John (Holland) says:

        The statistical data which the long-term GFS depends upon keeps trying to pull us back to a normal winter weather pattern, but this has not been a normal winter. There’s really nothing that can be done; statistics are the only hard data it has to go on when we’re talking two weeks out.

        Accuweather has lots of snow for me from the 21st onward. That would make me very happy.

    3. fixxxer says:

      Jordan stop looking at long ranges.

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Why don’t you stop bossing ppl on this blog! I can look at long range if I want!

        1. Ryan says:

          Whoa… Get a load of little Miss Attitude..

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Well Ryan he has no control over what I do and he can’t tell me to stop looking at long range if he doesn’t like me posting about long range then he can ignore because I can tell you I will be posting about long range!

        3. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

          WOW how old are you jordan 6? my goodness get an appropriate adult attitude!!! at least child attitude LMAO!

        4. Brian (Grandville) says:

          Just when I thought she was gone, there she is again. It was nice while it lasted.

        5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Says Deb………LOL

        6. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Just when I thought she was gone, there she is again. It was nice while it lasted.

        7. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

          You can’t get rid of me Brian muhaha muhaha!

  24. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    In regards to the monday-tuesday “storm” here’s a brief from IDX which is a good read


    AS it states and I beleive some have said on the blog before that somtimes models trend away from bigger storms until they are closer to the date, no guranntees but I don’t think that it’s time to give up

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Well, it’s not a blizzard, but even cold rain is better than nothing.

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          You read my mind! Actually got a email coupon for one yesterday and we’re taking the kids tonight. We all love the midnight truffle, not to mention it’s the only blizzard you can get around here anymore!

        2. Jack says:

          Enjoy Barry. Huh Never Knew I Was ahh Mind Reader, Maybe we could go With GREAT Minds Think Alike ! Lol… :-)

        3. fixxxer says:

          If we couldnt get severe weather this past spring/summer/fall then you dont need a blizzard.

        4. John (Holland) says:

          I like winter severe weather more than summer, so yes, I really do.

  25. Lets just blow up the dam GFS.

    1. Scott (Belmont) says:


    2. Jack says:

      WOW THAT is Ahttp://www.dreamstime.com/highly-explosive-signboard-thumb8116866.jpg SUBJECT !!

    3. fixxxer says:

      How about we just stop looking past 2-3 days out.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Then there wouldn’t be anything to get hyped about. That wouldn’t be any fun.

        1. fixxxer says:

          So the constant disapointment doesnt bother you?

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I personally don’t let the weather get the better of my emotions. But you do know I hate the heat.

        3. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Sounds like the question you ask yourself every morning fix.

        4. Jack says:

          fixer Life is Full of Disapointments ! Does That Bother You ? Just Askin… ;-)

      2. Kate (44th and Breton) says:

        everytime I read a fixxxer post I cant help read it in Eeyore’s voice

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I read it in squidwards voice, from sponge bob.

        2. Ryan says:

          I read it in Skeletor’s voice from He-Man.

        3. John (Holland) says:

          I read it in Trixie’s voice, from My Little Pony.

        4. Jack says:

          Yup, He’s ( fizzzer ) Is all those Voices PLUS… Lolololo.. ;-)

        5. Kate (44th and Breton) says:

          These gave me a good chuckle..:p

  26. Hello everyone! I was just having a look at the visible satellite imagery this evening and you will not believe what I found!! The Moon showed up at sunset! This is NOT photoshopped. Check it out! It was a major nerd moment for me! Feel free to share this with your friends. This is super cool. http://on.fb.me/UED5bo

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      WOW!!! Awesome

    2. John (Holland) says:

      That is really cool.

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Very cool.

    4. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Can’t say I’ve ever seen that before. Very cool.

    5. Jack says:

      AWESOME and AMAZING, Once in a Life Time !!! Nerd Moment…. Thanks Charles… ;-)

  27. Storm waning says:

    I am thankful there is no winter forecast for 2012-2013. Thank you Bill, or station manager, or station owner! Glad that nonsense is over. Lets just max out at about 8 day and call it good

  28. Brian(Grandville) says:

    FOX 17 is still calling for 50 and rain, next Monday. Blah!
    Anyone beg to differ.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Ugh, well their meteorology dept. is lacking somewhat, especially with the absence of Peter Chan. Jon Shaner is alright…but the other two…………………..

      1. Skot says:

        To be honest? Peter is a great man. BUT….I think his talents and education would take him places if his name was PETER DINK.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Agree, I thought Peter Chan did quite well, while he was there. Shaner is alright too, but Bill is still the man.

      3. John (Holland) says:

        Kevin Craig is Chevy Chase’s little brother and no one can tell me otherwise.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha…he just seems awkward…and unsure….kind of like “what am I doing here? What is weather?”

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      The 00Z GFS run is looking good for us to get snow on Monday. Now if it can just stay that way…

      1. Bnoppe says:

        Lets see what the overnight euro does hopefully the same

  29. Skot says:

    Fixxxers intuition tells me cold…. then warmer….followed by same………for ETERNITY!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      NO THUNDERSTORMS for you!

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        And no soup for you, NEXT!

    2. Jack says:

      Skot Here is A Song about Fixxxer, IMHO , Spin: Jethro Tull- Aqualung – YouTube

      ► 6:38► 6:38

  30. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I REALLY like tonight’s run for next week. Lots of snow opportunities! Hopefully it just gets better.


      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Haha…there’s enthusiasm! Perhaps fixxxer will do that when he sees lightning…

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