Enjoy the Sunshine

December 5th, 2012 at 2:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Another great picture here from Jack Martin.  Click the pic. to enlarge.  This is Lake Michigan Tuesday afternoon.   You can see the exiting cirrus clouds.   Shortly after midnight early Tues. AM, Muskegon reached 66 degrees.  That was not only a record high temperature for Dec. 4, but it also topped the 64 on 12/2/1982 for the warmest temperature ever recorded at the Muskegon Airport in December.   Grand Rapids set a daily record high of 65 at 12:01 AM.   With the warmest temperatures right around midnight, the 65 counted for both the 3rd and 4th.  The first 4 days of December were 16.25 degrees warmer than average.  This is record territory, but not unprecedented.  In 1998, we had a 9-day stretch from Nov. 28 to Dec. 6 when the mean temperature was 22.1 degrees warmer than average.  That winter we had 49.7″ of snow between 12/31 and 1/25 and we wound up with 76.7″ of snow – a little above average.

Overnight Model update:  The NAM (caribou) gives G.R. highs of 40/40/45 over the next 3 days with 0.13″ of rain on Friday.  The GFS  has highs of 38/41/43 with 0.20″ of rain Thurs. night into Friday and maybe a half inch of snow Friday night…maybe.  Then it gives us 1.02″ of rain late Sunday to late Monday.  The precipitation may end with an inch or two of snow if the cold air can get here before the precip. exits.  Then we get another 1/2-1″ of snow Tues. night into Weds.  From late Monday thru Tuesday night, it’s plenty cold enough for snow on the model.   The European has upper 30s/low 40s/mid 40s for the next 3 days in G.R. with 0.08″ of rain on Friday, 0.04″ on Saturday and 0.37″ of rain on Sunday, which could end with some snow Sunday night/Monday.  Like the GFS, it’s plenty cold enough for any precip. to be snow from early Monday thru at least Tues. evening and probably beyond.   If we can ever get other parameters working, the lake-effect would add to this.    The sun will be out for most of the day today…enjoy…it looks pretty cloudy from Thursday into early next week as we get into a wetter pattern.  By the middle of next week…the cold is getting closer (-38C northwest of Lake Winnipeg less than a mile off the ground).   Check out the -72 forecast for Greenland.   The European model forecasts a bit of rain for the Ohio Valley.  Finally, here’s Typhoon Bopha hitting the Philippines.

261 Responses to “Enjoy the Sunshine”

  1. michael g (SE GR) says:

    I’m not convinced it will be cold enough for mostly snow in GR with the Monday system, but by the following weekend, winter will be here, and all of you saying that it’s a repeat of last winter will have to EAT IT.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Oh yeah did your uncle joe.b tell you that?

    2. Irish coffee says:

      True dat Michael g.!..we’re talkin’ 50 shades o’ WHITE GOLD! INDY gets Richard Simmons workout laying brickYARDS OF snow! Gun Lake Deb rides PURE MICHIGAN again!Rocky (on) road trip to Pebble Beach to play golf!Fixxxer calls 911(SNOW EMERGENCY!)…Joe B. RE-NAMES Michigan the NEW SIBERIA and sends Borscht to Snyder…OKC Deb is once bitten TWICE shy-
      leaves sooner(s) for better looking Copa Cabana!..BDBC declares “global cooling” alerts; cites radical scientists & meaty-urologists to back his claims, while DEMANDING all citizens 1)drive SUV’s 2)digest more methane 3)CRANK their thermostats to 78 & 4)denounce unions (beyond man + woman:)

      1. INDY says:

        Richard Simmons says hi gays!!! INDY!!

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Michael, I am surprised that you have not learned your lesson yet. Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. We may still end up with above average temps and well below average snowfall this winter? I hope not, however until we actually see a snow storm and some actual cold weather and an actual pattern changeI sure would not plan on it!!!

  3. Ok, there is always a dry slot in the storm, and it seems to find it’s way over Grand Rapids everytime. Remember the bubble is on.

    1. Scott (Belmont) says:

      Yes the old dry slot. It does seem to hit the GR area often. Again this storm is far from a sure thing, as it is five days away!

      1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

        Why did you have to say the D word? ;)

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready to ROCK N ROLL INDY! It could be the first SNOWSTORM of the year!

  5. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

    12z euro ensembles have the US join the arctic agenda.Climate change, this time cooler, coming home to roost ( chickens freeze in tracks)

    Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

    View from GFS at 8-days shows -55°F coldest temps leaving Alaska & heading SE. Time to crank up the furnace. pic.twitter.com/7f1rogc2

    Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

    Yay! Cool to see almost -50°F on forecast map along Lake Winnipeg, which should be froze solid. pic.twitter.com/5hraDUor

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      That last pic from the Euro still has us in the “warm” air (26* at 1pm next Friday) ahead of the arctic front.

      1. arcturus says:

        Any revision to that ’2 below avg for ‘only’ the rest of the month to make it a below avg month’ statement you made a few days ago?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          That wasn’t a forecast…just simple math…it takes a lot to erase +12.8 for the first 5 days of the month…however, it is going to go back to a more average December pattern next week and beyond.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Sounds good!

  6. It looks like GR misses this one and our friends to the west and northren lower MI get the snow.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Remember any slight track difference can make a significant difference I guess we really won’t know what will happen until Saturday so for now lets just watch and see :)

  7. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    18Z is in for the GFS Snowfall:
    http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
    A solid 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Like with many others, this far out I don’t buy it any more.

    2. John (Holland) says:

      Each run gets better!

  8. Jack says:

    Off Subject, R.I.P. Dave Brubeck… :-(

  9. Jim S says:

    18z gfs has a similar track, but the last two model runs are not as deep with the low. The 12z had some ice, but but the 18z does not appear to wrap in as much cold air.

  10. INDY says:

    Hey hey hey one side of grey INDY is ready to rock-n-roll u all know I will have Bill’s blogg rolling like thunder from down under clean your pants do the dishes and sit back Sunday will be a snow storm fact 6-10 inches coming with wind and Bill will spin with a smile from chin to chin, nows time to get ready before it snows heavy ….From tracking with my sprites Rocky rockford all night …..INDYY….

    1. Storm waning says:

      You are wrong. No 6 to 10

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        It is definitely a possibility!

        1. Storm waning says:

          By that logic so is…… Any thing. Don’t buy it

    2. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Yeah Inndy, 6-10″ worth of snow may or may not fall, but I believe that most of that 6-10: will melt on contact, the ground is just too warm still! Only anout 3-5″ may stick, if that.

      Amounts may vary depending on how heavy the snow falls as well….

  11. kevin. w says:

    I’m going with the navy model been very consistent through the past few months and was one that followed right after the euro hook with Sandy. I’m going to wait and see if it follows some of the other models I watch. Definitely not the GFS or Canadian during the winter although the GFS is usually the first to depict a pattern shift and thats what its doing now. So we shall see what happens.

  12. Jack says:

    Hey, Hey , My , My, The HYPE for Winter Will Never DIE. Kinda like Rock n Roll… LOL

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK ON!

  13. kevin. w says:

    Waiting til 14z when balloon launch for Alaska and Western Canada to see where the pressures go and that will tell me what will happen with our pattern and think some of the data will be put in some of the other models and give it a better handle on the changes coming. I’m seeing some major changes over in Asia and Europe now and that could be a tell tale sign of some colder weather. Those areas are important here in forecasting a bit down the road. The fun stuff finally starts.

    1. Matt(Grand Haven) says:

      Thanks for the info Kevin, looking forward to the update!

  14. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    If this event pans out I will be looking for some sort of winter wx advisory either late Friday or Saturday sometime! I could be wrong as well

    1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Probably not until Sat. night/Sun. morning

  15. INDY says:

    **********WINTER STORM BILL SUNDAY**********INDYY………..

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      SNOWSTORM will be ROCKIN and ROLLIN in ROCKFORD!! Bring it on baby. I will get plenty of golf in thru Sunday then watch out!

      1. Jack says:

        I Think they Have A Pill, FOR…HYPERactivity.. Just saying… ;-)

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Yes they do! My boys and I take it! LOL!

    2. Storm waning says:

      Hype hype hyper hype

  16. kevin. w says:

    Hey rocky didn’t you play golf a couple of years ago right before a big blizzard?????

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes and I plan to do the same thing this year. I will be golfing Saturday and Sunday and then let the FUN begin! I am more than ready to transition from Fall to Winter!! Bring it on!

      1. Storm waning says:

        You will golf again soon. No worries

  17. Storm waning says:

    And it will all melt with in 48hours

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      So now you are admitting there might actually be some snow on the ground to melt?

      1. Storm waning says:

        Yes. define “some”

  18. kevin. w says:

    I just looked at the last balloon launch from this morning and compared them to the past three and pressures over the Gulf of Alaska are rising substantially and that could mean the heat pump is about done. When we get a good area of high pressure up in those parts it usually means that we can expect at least some colder weather down here with some storminess. I’ll wait till Asia, Europe western Canada and Alaska send there balloons up after about 14z and do some comparing and see if we are indeed in for some sort of pattern shift.

  19. INDY says:

    Ohio Vally could have Tornadoe’s verry mean storm coming to our neck of the woods ..In One hand a flashlight in the other hand a shovel we will be on the shovel side of things folks in Ohio Southern Indy and Ill. Get your flashights ready Mother nature is about to get mean!!! Stay Tuned!! INDYY…

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Got my generator gassed and my snow blower will be primed and ready to go for the snow!

      1. fixxxer says:

        Lol your gonna buy into more hype swatz?

    2. Jack says:

      We Shall Seeeeeeee INDY… Indy mean Time Spin : John Prine Souvenirs – YouTube

      ► 4:41► 4:41
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ohfM_PqYeg

  20. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I am so glad INDY is here to balance all the Debby downers and negative Nellies on here. Things are looking the best they have all year for wintry weather.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Yep finally i think a pattern change is making its way here.

  21. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    Anybody know when the 120 hour forecast update?

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html

      There’s times on each selcetion

      1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        I’m talking about what time they refresh all maps?

        1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

          it various

  22. Well my gas can has been empty since the last mowing, and I know if I fill it, it will not snow enough to use the snow blower. I do have some moonshine I got in Ten. I could just use that.

    1. Jack says:

      W.W. G.r. : Ya might wanna Double check, Your moonshine stash, Indy may have Drank it , He’s gotta Nose for dem dar, Things… At least that’s what I Heard…. Lol

  23. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

    Computer models are indicating a major pattern change and an active weather pattern ahead. Could see some much colder air come down from Canada! There is a chance of quite a few decent storm systems in the next week-10 days, but they’re still pretty far out to make a decent foorecast on them.

    So the main focus is on the Sun./Mon. storm system!

  24. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Just an observation noticed that in the last 2 runs of the GFS the area of snow has shifted slilightly south not much but I believe that eventully the system will give area’s from GR south 3-6 solid inches of snow.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      and north 4-8″ :) fair enough lets hope it’s just even for the entire state then it would be fair for the entire state lol :)

    2. Storm waning says:

      Once bitten twice shy

      Repeatedly bitten?

      Neurotic

      Seeing is believing

      Question is…… Will it stay around? Or leave once it hits the ground

      Warm and cold and average doth make

      Average not a winter make

      Snow once on the ground

      Is winter…… If it sticks around

      1. Jack says:

        Once BITTEN, Twice Shy. You say !! No Problem…. CUE : Ian Hunter – Once Bitten, Twice Shy – YouTube

        ► 3:55► 3:55
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL1f3xNrylg
        Oct 30, 2010 – 4 min – Uploaded by pescaterian11
        Ian Hunter Song: Once Bitten, Twice Shy Album: Ian Hunter (1975)

        1. Mike in Hamilton says:

          thanks for posting ian hunter instead of great white! (not that great white didn’t have some good tunes, but it’s always good to give props to the original artist1)

        2. Jack says:

          Your Right, Mike… Thanks for checkin that Out…. Peace.. ;-)

  25. Skot says:

    Nathan…how r u feeling???
    \

  26. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Bill, why don’t you discuss winter prospects anymore? I mean, even the potential systems next week? It seems like I only read you responding to the antics of global warming/climate change advocates.

    1. Rumrunner says:

      MAybe because he’ll make a forecast, and if it’s off by .5°, you flame the old boy. You asshats will sit here and armchair quarterback anyone who doesn’t get it exactly right. You ask Bill for advice, what he thinks, then shit on him if you don’t agree with it. Why the hell would he do it?

      1. fixxxer says:

        I think bills smart not making any predictions. To unreliable the past year. He has been a bit quiet though. Are the rumors of his retirement true?

      2. Ryan (Algoma) says:

        LOL… swear words.

        1. Rumrunner says:

          LOL….Skeletor

  27. Jack says:

    Big daddy, MUST BE, In LANSING….Sing……Sing….Sing…..Singgggggggggggggggg…. ;-)

  28. Brian(Grandville) says:

    New 0Z data coming in now.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      what does it show now?

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Well the NAM is showing us getting possibly a couple inches of snow on Saturday now. Unfortunately, Monday’s event may be more rain to start….then snow. Have to wait a bit longer for the models to show more.

        1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Can you post a link please :)

        2. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          Thank you :)

        3. Brian(Grandville) says:

          That’s about what I gathered from it to.

        4. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

          It now looks like it wants to put central Michigan in for 5″ of snow Saturday I don’t know if I believe that?

        5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          That is the NAM….the GFS, at least this run, looks like CRAP for Monday….

  29. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Bad news for snow lovers, Acculess has us getting cold from the 14th on.

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      ??????

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        They are always unreliable.

  30. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I find it amusing that the GFS can go from this : http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    …to this: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    in SIX HOURS! Lol! That is why the models are a joke.

  31. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Hey all, hope everyone’s been well!!

    When the pattern shift does indeed happen, it won’t be before this storm approaches out area on Monday. I have looked at several models but they all lead me to this, and it’s important..

    “Recent history/storms/low pressure tracks”

    Every low pressure as of lately, well, actually since spring, we’ve been on the warm side. This won’t likely change for this system. The cold air won’t be cold enough this far south to give us any more than a nuisance 1-2″ best of snow, and that would be after the 6-12 hours of on and off rain.

    At the current time, I can definitely see us getting a mild rain (temps in the mid to upper 40′s), with the cold front coming thru bringing temps down below freezing as the precip exits. THAT will be our only shot at some snow, it’s about a 4-6 hour window of light deformation snow.

    Each model run is consistently taking the low pressure further west. In time, I believe areas West of Chicago, west of Madison, west of Green Bay, will receive the accumulating snowfall from this system.

    Also, we have got to remember that the lows almost ALWAYS end up further WEST of what the models show in the winter months, particulary slightly west of we’re the GFS tracks lows. I don’t know why, but for the past several years its been that way.

    After a pattern shift, if it does as some say ( I haven’t looked into any longer range models to see) then I could see these systems bringing us snow storm after snow storm, while being locked into colder artic air.

    Just my two cents.

  32. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    And I appologize for so many grammar mistakes, I typed all of that on my iPhone or (smartphone) LOL… Changes the correct grammar and spelling I type to incorrect.

    1. Jack says:

      Great Post Harry B.C. !!! It’s Worth ALOT More Than 2 cents !!!

      1. Kris says:

        Agreed! Very informative with little jargon that some of us don’t understand. Thanks!

  33. Ryan (Algoma) says:

    I added my location to my name and now when i post i get this “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Did you post from an IPhone?
      I got the same thing the other night.
      Never happens on the laptop though.

Leave a Reply