Colder Next Week (and probably beyond)December 6th, 2012 at 1:55 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Update: A couple very light showers/sprinkles coming thru this evening, nothing much out there right now (6:15 PM). I hope to get to the tree lightning at the Ford Museum at 7:30 PM. The program and free admission (and free refreshments) is 7-9 pPM. Click the image to enlarge. This is the overnight GFS model for next Monday PM. We’re at a 522 thickness (plenty cold enough for snow showers off Lake Michigan) with a 10-20 mph NW wind It looks like a cooler pattern shaping up for much of next week, with several opportunities for at least snow showers/flurries. Ski areas can start to ramp up the (mostly) night snow making. Be extra careful the first day we get significant snow on the roads. We always get a lot of accidents. We’re not used to driving on the snow…and remember there are some new drivers who have never driven on snow.
Model update: NAM (caribou), high 42 today (Thu.) with .05″ rain from 1 AM to 8 AM Thurs. night..high 47 Friday, 0.52″ rain Fri. night/Sat. – may end with a mix…high Sat. 40, possible mix Sunday AM at 34 degrees. GFS highs next 3 days all in low 40s with 0.14″ Thurs. night…roads wet for Fri. AM commute…then 0.13″ Sunday and 0.13″ Sunday night, snow showers Monday and the 2nd half of December looking cool. European has 0.02″ early Fri. AM, 0.31″ Sunday with snow showers from Sunday night to Tuesday. We go to -13.7 at 850 mb and the Euro. gives G.R. a temp. of 23.9 Tues. AM – plenty cold enough for at least lake-effect flurries if now accumulating snow showers and slick spots on the roads. Arctic Oscillation negative…North Atlantic Oscillation takes a big dip…PNA stays negative…looks like the jet just sinks farther south. This means colder and a little wetter pattern shaping up. Snow lovers…don’t get too excited…too early for that and it’s the GFS…but.
Also: Dr. Roger Pelkie Jr. has updated tropical cyclone data thru 2012. Check it out. Some cool pics. of Earth here. The death toll from Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines has topped 300. Pictures of the damage here. Three people are dead and at least seven injured in a rare tornado in New Zealand. Here’s video of a tornado that hit Auckland, N.Z. in May 2011. And have a look at 56 years of tornado tracks in the U.S. – note the effect of the Appalachian Mts. and the high frequency of tornadoes across central Mississippi into northern Alabama. WHOOPS!