Colder Next Week (and probably beyond)

December 6th, 2012 at 1:55 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Update:  A couple very light showers/sprinkles coming thru this evening, nothing much out there right now (6:15 PM).  I hope to get to the tree lightning at the Ford Museum at 7:30 PM.  The program and free admission (and free refreshments) is 7-9 pPM.  Click the image to enlarge.  This is the overnight GFS model for next Monday PM.  We’re at a 522 thickness (plenty cold enough for snow showers off Lake Michigan) with a 10-20 mph NW wind  It looks like a cooler pattern shaping up for much of next week, with several opportunities for at least snow showers/flurries.  Ski areas can start to ramp up the (mostly) night snow making.  Be extra careful the first day we get significant snow on the roads.  We always get a lot of accidents.  We’re not used to driving on the snow…and remember there are some new drivers who have never driven on snow.

Model update:  NAM (caribou), high 42 today (Thu.) with .05″ rain from 1 AM to 8 AM Thurs. night..high 47 Friday, 0.52″ rain Fri. night/Sat. – may end with a mix…high Sat. 40, possible mix Sunday AM at 34 degrees.  GFS highs next 3 days all in low 40s with 0.14″ Thurs. night…roads wet for Fri. AM commute…then 0.13″ Sunday and 0.13″ Sunday night, snow showers Monday and the 2nd half of December looking cool.  European has 0.02″ early Fri. AM, 0.31″ Sunday with snow showers from Sunday night to Tuesday.  We go to -13.7 at 850 mb  and the Euro. gives G.R. a temp. of 23.9 Tues. AM – plenty cold enough for at least lake-effect flurries if now accumulating snow showers and slick spots on the roads.  Arctic Oscillation negativeNorth Atlantic Oscillation takes a big dipPNA stays negative…looks like the jet just sinks farther south.  This means colder and a little wetter pattern shaping up.  Snow lovers…don’t get too excited…too early for that and it’s the GFS…but.

Also:  Dr. Roger Pelkie Jr. has updated tropical cyclone data thru 2012.  Check it out.  Some cool pics. of Earth here.  The death toll from Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines has topped 300.  Pictures of the damage here.    Three people are dead and at least seven injured in a rare tornado in New Zealand.  Here’s video of a tornado that hit Auckland, N.Z. in May 2011.    And have a look at 56 years of tornado tracks in the U.S. – note the effect of the Appalachian Mts. and the high frequency of tornadoes across central Mississippi into northern Alabama.     WHOOPS!

232 Responses to “Colder Next Week (and probably beyond)”

  1. Steve G says:

    Bill — check this out and let me know how this guy fits in to the liberal conspiracy to raise US taxes through climate change fear mongering:

    1. Steven T - Hudsonville says:

      Crocodile tears, children use them all the time to try and get their way. What a joke!!!

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Or anytime Speaker Boehner watches a feminine hygiene commercial.

  2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    The Chance that we get a big snow storm increases when they say were not getting anything unil there within 48 hours

  3. Sprites says:

    Funny how models work, guys. Like it was talked about earlier, the 12z GFS showed almost no snow or cold in the next 384 hours. Now the 18z GFS is back on board with a couple 1-4″ events this Sat and Monday along with cold air for the rest of the month. It even spins up a pretty good snow storm for us around the 18th with artic air behind it. Flip flop the models go…..

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      And until proven otherwise you go with warmer and rain. That is about what is going to happen.

  4. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    Mid 40′s middle of next week….huh.
    Would like someone to explain to me how they think just all of a sudden this pattern is going to change? The atmosphere is completely content in running and operating in a way that is balanced and acceptable to mother nature and earth as she is…and right now she doesn’t seem to want to change how she’s been operating the last year and a half or so…yeah there might be some differences from last year but there is a lot that seems similar. Cold and snowy Europe and Alaska, warm and dry most of US, etc. What ever is going on needs to be disrupted by a huge storm or disturbance somewhere in the world, of some sort to throw off the, chaotic but, consistent pattern were in.
    Would of thought Sandy could of helped but she seemed to skirt out of here with not too much lasting effects on the atmosphere….

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The pattern is not changing in the near future. The so called experts will be the last ones to admit it and face reality!!

  5. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    It looks possible for areas along and north of 96 could get 2-4″ of snow tomorrow night I’ll take that if we can’t get Monday’s system in :)

  6. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    GFS shows 4″ for me Saturday and NAM shows 3″ not much off but I am going with the NAM because the NAM model has been accurate so far (:

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:


    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Grand Rapids will not be getting more than a dusting of snow from both of these events combined!

  7. UNCLE SPARKEE says:

    good morning my big city hobos! well it looks like your ol aunty edna will be whacking and stackin the wood!! colder weather will get the varmits movin for the huntin nuts like me and sparks jr. my feft knee is twitchin!! that means the white stuffs a comin!! eeeks

  8. Tom (Wyoming) says:

    I’m new to the area (from Chicago), and new to this blog, which I greatly enjoy. At this point I only want it to snow so Rocky will shut up.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Welcome, Tom – I’m from Evanston – relatives all around Chicago. My father’s family grew up on Granville Ave. – just a couple blocks away from where Betty Ford was born.

      1. Brenda says:

        Good to see you replying in your blog, again, Mr. Steffen.

      2. Larry Groothuis says:

        Good to meet another who has roots in the SW side of GR. I was raised near Grandville Ave. and Franklin St. – the dutch getto at one time.

  9. INDY says:

    Uncle Sparks any snow up in Badwin yet???? To Bad we sold the cottage I will miss watching the snow coming in of the lake ohhhh them west winds Well INDY with just have to spend more time in his northwest corner of thee YARDofBRICKS and be like fizzer get about 30 more names and play games on Bills blogg all winter From cue’s from uncle Jack to u Sparkee hack getting the snow blower out for SUNDAYS Snowstorm …..INDYY…

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I see a lot of golf in my future and I do not see any pattern change. Get Ready for a lot of above average temps, some rain and very little snow!

    1. Rocky let us know how the weather is in Florida when you go to golf… lol

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I wish I was golfing in FL, however I will be golfing in Rockford, MI. I golf until we get snow on the ground or the ground gets totally frozen. I don’t see either of these things happening in the near or mid range future!

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Hey, when the ground is frozen, you get more distance off the tee. Just be careful putting downhill.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Yes, and I have golfed on ground that is totally frozen and the roll with your tee shots are great, however it is a major problem on the greens!

    2. spoon says:

      I’ve sat back long enough and listenened one cares. Your.a tool.

      1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

        Spoon? Sounds like a tool as well.

  11. I think from Holland to Lansing to Marlette north from Friday night into Tuesday 1-4 inches, and from Muskegion to Saginaw 3-5 inches with an isolated 6 inch amount possible.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      GR will not even get and inch of snow, in fact I will be shocked if we get any measurable snow out of these systems!

      1. spoon says:

        Shut up rocky

        1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

          Shut up spoon.

  12. Storm waning says:

    Whatever falls will be….
    1 pathetic
    2. Melt quickly

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Agree 100%!

      1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        And will be all north of the I-94 corridor!!

  13. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    Get ready for another let down in the snow dept folks ! Repeat of the so called winter of 2011 in the works !

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It is looking even worse – less snow!

  14. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

    I sure hope there are no snowstorms for me to miss out on the week of the 25th thru 2nd of January because I will be in Florida just found out tonight from my Fiancee it’s a Christmas gift lol but anyway I sure hope not anybody know if there are any snowstorms in forecast that week?

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Meant 26 sorry I am flying out the day after Christmas not Christmas!

    2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      They cannot even predict the chance of snow for Saturday it would be considered vudu if you predicted the weather past 10 days and got it right

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Hey Jordan, I’ll give you a few of these because I have some to spare.
        Nothing personal, it just makes “making sense” out of a paragraph easier for some to read. Have a good trip.

        1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

          You should give a few to Deb too.

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          She was also in my thoughts while typing that.
          Here they are.
          I may have left out a few.

        3. Jack says:

          I Bet Deb is Jordan’s …Fiancee…. Any Takers ?

        4. Ryan (Algoma) says:

          I was wondering the same thing…

  15. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

    The one tough nerd has done it now!

    Cue up this one Jack!

    1. Jack says:

      AND THE UNIONS ARE CRYING : Question Mark & the Mysterians – 96 Tears – YouTube
      ► 3:01► 3:01
      Sep 20, 2009 – Uploaded by 60otaku3
      Question Mark and the Mysterians – 96 Tears (1966) … This song kicks ass in 2012 so I can …

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      That strong wind is bringing in a NO SNOWSTORM PATTERN!!!!!!

  16. INDY says:

    What do fizzer and storm warning have in common ????? *****WINTER STORM NAMES******SUNDAY!!!!! INDYY….

    1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

      I would’ve guessed “they” use the same computer.

  17. Skot says:

    Blizzard Sunday. Rain Monday. Wind and Snow Tuesday. 60 Weds. Dont care Thursday. Friday cloudy. 384 hr outlook Sat. WTF Sunday.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      So no sun glasses tomorrow then.

      1. Jack says:

        I Have To Wear SUNGLASSES Everyday. CUE : Timbuk3 – The Futures So Bright (I Gotta Wear Shades) – YouTube
        ► 3:15► 3:15

  18. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    So what date can we consider winter a bust and people will start admitting it? Christmas? A couple weeks into Jan? Bc those time frames are getting closer and closer…
    Even if we do get snow in January sometime, that leaves us with the chance for only about, 2 months of winter…wow how exciting..

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’ll say January 8. Elvis’s birthday, as well as my brother, and a couple more that I know. That’s all I have to say about that.

      1. Jack says:

        All This Crazy Weather and Talk of Lack There of, Reminded Me, of This :

    2. Cort S. says:

      Everyone remembers last year, but two winters ago started out a little slow, I recall, yet January and February picked up the slack.

      Who knows what this winter will bring? I dunno, but I hope we get something exciting soon. Then we can all focus our arguments on fun stuff like which counties should be put into Watches, Warnings, and Advisories, and which model is on crack for forecasting over a foot. Like we used to, back in the bad ol’ days.

      It appears that the Canadian snow cover is greater this year than it was last year. In theory, this should make it increasingly difficult for warm temperatures to stick around, likely preventing us from being as warm as we were last winter (unless strong teleconnections force the jet stream to be situated in just the right way, where we are under persistent ridging with winds from the southwest).

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Excellent analysis Cort.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Also, Cort.
          What do you think is the most reliable run of the GFS model, and when do they update?

        2. Cort S. says:

          The conventional wisdom that I hear says that the 12 and 00 Z (7 am and 7 pm EST) runs of the GFS are the best, because they incorporate the weather balloon data that we obtain at those times. The 06 and 18 Z (1 am and 1 pm EST) runs of the GFS do not have weather balloon data available, so they might not be as good. However, I have not read any scientific studies that prove this notion, mostly because I haven’t searched for those studies.

      2. Jacob G says:

        I was thinking that the same thing tonight, the deeper the Canadian snowpack the more cold air will fight back the warmth. We can get some nice high pressures late in the winter season with NE winds sending the cold air down. Who knows maybe we are starting a new ice age and this is the process, jet stream gets locked in and snowpack builds. ;^)

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      Assuming Mother Nature has a wicked sense of humor – we’ll get TONS of snow by mid-January, because that’s when my sister returns to live in Michigan after 10 years in California. I can still hear her say “I’ll never shovel that *bleep!* snow again!!!”

      Oh yeeeaah – get your snow toys ready, kiddos, ’cause we’re gonna have a blizzard :-)

  19. Mindy says:

    I LOVE IT……..We had more Snow this time last Year than this Year !!!! WOW, to think we could have LESS SNOWFALL than last Year !!!! All this Cold and Snow coming hype!! PRICELESS !!!!!!

  20. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    Have you noticed most of now sound like Fixxer. :) I guess he had it right all along. ;)

  21. John (Holland) says:

    This is the theme song of this winter.

    1. Jack says:

      Or………. ► 0:01► 0:01
      Jan 7, 2008 – Uploaded by sandysperfectpaws
      Sign in with your YouTube Account (YouTube, Google+, Gmail, Orkut, Picasa, or Chrome) to …

  22. Jacob G says:

    Nightly run of ECWMF shows a nasty split flow possibly setting up with an omega block mid month. That could lock the cold air in Canada for a bit longer. The Greenland block does show up and looks rather strong. Southern Jet stream is trying to get active as well. None of this happens over night and this is still not last winter’s setups. Now our snowfall drought is the same as last winter or at least at our current pace. Needless to say another winter to watch and learn!

    1. Jacob G says:

      Sorry, that should be ECMWF

  23. OWK says:

    I have noticed in my short time here that the people who like warmer weather are very mean to people who try and talk about snow. Please stop getting baited into fighting with these children.

    “How people treat you is their karma; how you react is yours.”
    ― Wayne W. Dyer

      1. Skot says:

        That s me every time I read a fixxxer comment.

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