Thunderstorm Risk in Ohio Valley and South (and more)

December 14th, 2012 at 10:26 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook   These are the general thunderstorm outlooks for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3.  The thunder is expected to stay to our south.  We’ll see showers develop on Saturday with a good chance of more showers on Sunday. Check out the GRR NWS discussion.  I’m in Ohio right now…hope Saturday evening.  Two beautiful sunny days around 50 with calm conditions in Oak Ridge.  We had fog and think frost in the early AM.  I spotted several blooming dandelions and one small daisy.

Check out these links: to the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, and Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Storm Total RainfallRegional Radar, SPC Mesoscale Discussions…and Current Severe T-Storm Watches.

We made 50 for a high on Friday, but it was only 33 at Gaylord.  Snow cover Friday AM: 3″ at Houghton Lake  4″ Marquette, Ste. S. Marie, Alpena, Ishpeming and Grand Marais with 5″ at Newberry.

 

155 Responses to “Thunderstorm Risk in Ohio Valley and South (and more)”

  1. Mike V says:

    Hey Bill is the meteor shower going on tonight? What is the best time to see it?

    1. OWK says:

      It sure has been beautiful to see it!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Saw a bunch last night. Not one so far tonight. Still hopeful though.

  2. Skot says:

    Mike. I can see your new here. Sometimes it benefits to read the past few posts.

  3. Jack says:

    CUE: Louis Armstrong – When You Wish Upon A Star (1968) – YouTube
    ► 4:29► 4:29
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uReGn1l4ir8

    1. Skot says:

      Reincarnation of WOLFMAN JACK….

  4. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    From Gaylord NWS:
    GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT THE LAKES
    REGION IN THE THURSDAY-ISH TIMEFRAME. BUT AT WHAT LATITUDE? THE
    ECMWF MOVES A LOW FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO TO NEAR DTW (WITH HEAVY SNOW
    IN NORTHERN LOWER)…THE GFS CROSSES CENTRAL LOWER MI (SNOW NORTH
    AND MIXED PRECIP SOUTH)…THE GEM CROSSES UPPER MI (RAIN RAIN RAIN).
    THIS IS AN INTERESTING SET OF SOLUTIONS…PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE GEM
    HAS GENERALLY BEEN OUT IN FRONT (AND CORRECT) IN DIVERTING SYSTEMS
    NORTHWARD THIS FALL/EARLY WINTER. IN GENERAL…POPS WILL BE
    INCREASED THU-FRI…WITH A VERY GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL ADD A
    MENTION TO THE HWO ABOUT A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM…THOUGH NOTING
    THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

    1. Steve G says:

      Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro holds on to the more southerly track. Hate to be a scrooge, but given the pattern so far this year, my guess is that the GEM is correct. Hope I’m wrong.

  5. Still yet to see a sub 32 degree day high, the closest we’ve come was a 32.2 high on November 26th.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Here is the latest:

    1. ROCK n ROLL is here to stay!
    2. The CPC 8 to 14 temp outlook for above average temps is 100% WRONG!
    3. Our pattern begins to change by the end of next week!
    4. We will be seeing below average temps with ACCUMULATING SNOW!
    5. This will be a dramatic transition form a horrible no snow pattern to a real WINTER pattern!
    6. Tomorrow may be my last golf day till March or April!
    7. We will be seeing a white CHRISTMAS!
    8. The Thursday system may end up being a rain snow mix for GR, however after that the cold and snow will be ready to roll!

    Get Ready to ROCK n ROLL, winter is about ready to begin!!

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Why Rocky, you’ve changed :-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I just report the facts and the facts are that winter is right around the corner. GET READY!!

        1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

          We’ll soon find out, I reckon.

  7. arcturus says:

    Here comes the hedge:

    CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET IN A TURN TOWARD MORE WINTRY WEATHER

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, their confidence is not high, for the simply reason that all of the long range models and all of the experts have been wrong all season so far! For that matter their inaccurate forecast go all the way back to last fall and winter. They are gun shy, however mark it down on your calender – winter will be here by the end of the week – COLD and SNOW is on the way. Get Ready!

      1. Cort S. says:

        Mock them if they stick their necks out, citing the “100%” inaccuracy of long-range models. Mock them if they express uncertainty, citing the inaccuracy of all previous forecasts.

        Do you want meteorologists to admit that their faith in the long-range forecast is low, or do you want them to commit to a specific forecast, no matter how unlikely it is for it to turn out true? Or are the long-range models more reliable now than they were earlier this month?

        I appreciate your reversal in the last 6 days from “no snow pattern with no change in sight” to “cold and snow on the way,” because I actually think it’s well-timed. It coincides with my own feelings, especially this week, as I get a 1-2 punch of winter weather this week here in New Hampshire. Actually, I’m going to be driving back to Michigan through the Thursday-Friday storm system, so that looks to be meteorologically entertaining for me. The jet stream pattern finally looks more amplified and progressive this week. Thank goodness we have something exciting to talk about now. But with Michigan riding wavy 850 mb Zero Celsius line with these too systems, there is still plenty of opportunity (within our margin of error) for these snowstorms to be slopstorms.

  8. I am going to make a guess at this next storm next week. I think it will go just to our Northwest, we will be in the mix prep. area and, get very little snow followed by a nothwest to north wind, witch would give GRR not much in the way of snow. It’s just a guess but thats what usually happens.

    1. arcturus says:

      Going to agree with you. There are far too many conditions which favor continuation of the same than an about face plus the weather tends to stay locked in. Snowy and cold are the exception now.

      We are, what, on track for the 3rd or 4th warmest Dec on record? Those pesky threats of near record warm temps, dryness, etc are starting to add up.

  9. Sprites says:

    Looks like it should be cold enough for snow from Friday through the New Year. A white Christmas is all but a lock for Lake Shore areas, and I think the chances are very high for GR. Next weekend should be a Lake Effect fest for areas SW of GR. Cant wait

    1. John (Holland) says:

      I hope so!

      1. Sprites says:

        As a Hollander as well, so do I!

  10. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    50 yesterday and another good chance at 50 on Sunday. Feels like spring again. Remember those models 2 weeks ago showing arctic air for right now?

    GR’s average December is now running 10.5 degrees above average.

    Looks like the first real good snow chance of the year comes next weekend.

  11. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    The Euro is FREEZING cold

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      GET READY!!

  12. Jim S says:

    Oh boy…here we go again. While the last few.runs of the gfs showed a deep, slow moving low with a long period of lake effect and wind on the backside, the 12z just in shows a quicker system with rain followed by a short period of lake effect. Most lows the last two winters have scooted to our west into Canada with little if any snow on the back side.

    1. Steve G says:

      Yes the flow looks progressive again. Man I am tired of this.

      1. Jim S says:

        12z gem and unmet with a more favorable track…takes low from Chicago to Detroit …gem is @979mb over Detroit.

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Yep Seen that Slim. Going to get wintery around here next weekend. The Euro has by far been the best model showing the warmups we are having and it finally is showing what looks like a decent pattern change.

        2. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Whoops read your name wrong sorry about that.

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Don’t worry about that the GFS model shows. This is the by far the worst model on the face of the Earth! The pattern will be changing starting the end of next week and we will be seeing plenty of COLD and SNOW!!

    1. Cort S. says:

      You don’t remember the NGM? Also known as the “No Good Model”? :)

      The GFS was the only model to consistently bring Tropical Storm Debby over Florida instead of toward Texas or Louisiana. I remember because I experienced that storm live this summer, and it was fun! ECMWF totally sucked that time.

      We should really be looking at the ensemble models this far out, in order to get an idea on a realistic range of possibilities. The storm system is 5-6 days out, so is it really that surprising to see run-to-run inconsistency?

      The amount/duration of LES we get behind the Thursday-Friday system will depend on when and where the low-pressure system closes up and stalls out, and how long it sits still and spins moisture back over Lake Michigan. According to the 00Z ensemble members, the system could be centered anywhere from Michigan to New England to Quebec on Friday.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I am talking about the GFS model track record in the mid to long range as it relates to WINTER forecasts not hurricanes!!!!!

  14. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Apparently this sickness has finally made it down here I am throwing up every hour with bad stomache pains!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Excellent!

  15. Cort S. says:

    Here, ladies and gentlemen, is currently the range of possibilities for Thursday-Friday’s storm system:

    Click here for an animation

    The different-colored circles that materialize near Michigan on Thursday are the the potential locations of the 996 mb isobar in the developing low-pressure system. So it is clear that there will be some type of storm system, but the details on its exact location and strength are naturally fuzzy (like they always are when we’re predicting 5 days out). These ensemble members are saying that the center of the low pressure system at 12Z (7 a.m.) Thursday could be located anywhere between northern Missouri, Ohio, and north of Lake Huron, but most of them are clustering near northern Illinois.

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      Pretty cool graphics Cort.. I got this bookmarked .. A big thanks !

      1. Cort S. says:

        If you would like to play around the ensembles some more (these are the GFS ensembles), you can click here, and then click on GEFS-SPAG for spaghetti plots like the one I posted above, or click on GEFS-MNSPRD for means and spreads. We’re getting into the world of statistics and probability here, so these can be kinda difficult to interpret.

  16. Dan says:

    With the way recent forecasts have gone, I’m NOT ready to believe any forecast made beyond 2 to 3 days out! I’m holding out a little hope that we COULD be in for a change! Winter, you are welcome to come here and stay for awhile!

  17. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    Euro is showing an absolute blizzard next thursday with COLD air behind it.

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      That would work. It’s time for winter.

  18. big Daddy BC says:

    I’m feeling kind of bad for Bill at this point. -average to below average temps? ouch. I read yesterday that baring some freakish cold snap next week, 2012 will be the hottest year North America’s had since record keeping began.

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      How about the rest of the world? NA makes up what…4% of the earths surface?

    2. OWK says:

      Keyword is America. Europe is very cold right now. Does Al Gore pay you guys to go on like this?

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Actually, Europe, like the rest of the planet, has been cooking big time this year!

        http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201201-201210.gif

    3. big Daddy BC says:

      I was talking about our seasonal forecast, so a look at the year locally seemed appropriate. I forget that the idiots on here don’t like to talk about warming. Anyways, globally we haven’t had a year with below average temps since 1976. I’m guessing 2012 will be at the top of the chart. I’ll let you know, since you’re interested.

      1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

        I think most of us don’t believe in warming; some of us believe in cyclical climate changes, not man made. I certainly don’t believe in spending trillions to supposedly fight global warming. The money would undoubtedly be wasted, especially if it’s given to the U.N., a totally feckless worthless organization. If what I’ve posted, brands me an “Idiot” in your eyes, well so be it. I’ve been called worse.

        1. Steelie says:

          Good Day,

          Indeed Ned! That money could truly serve much greater and more effective positive changes for our fellow man.

          Steelie

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          DuH!

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Actually, an idiot is someone presented with irrefutable fact, who cannot accept the obvious and instead clings blindly to his preconceived position because he is blinded by political bias. It’s like believing that Harold Camping really can tell when the world will end or that O.J. is really out there looking for the “real killer”.

          Science accepts the fact that global temperatures have stopped warming:

          http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          Those who can’t accept this are closed-minded and devoid of objectivity.

      2. big Daddy BC says:

        Yes, Ned, that makes you a right-wing idiot. I’m not suggesting throwing money at the UN, or becoming communist, or socialist, only that we need to take responsibility for altering the climate. If that means giving fewer dollars to Exxon or other billion dollar companies, too bad. If that means the disgustingly rich .01% club has to change the way they do business, that’s too bad too. You’re an idiot for sure, and lucky for the rest of us, most of the educated world disagrees with you. ;)

        1. Paul says:

          You’re a communist bdbc.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          You can start with Al Gore, the hypocritical 100-million dollar man: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/08/al-gore-mitt-romney_n_2432534.html

          Another way to stop subsidizing the rich is to end the Michigan film tax subsidies. Michael Moore doesn’t need the state of Michigan paying for his trips to Old Country Buffet:
          https://twitter.com/ChipCheezum/statuses/236322877127938049

  19. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z Euro. still showing a big winter storm parked over Detroit/Toledo area by next Friday morning. If you cut the difference between the Euro. and GFS….would probably be more rain than snow for us, but way to early to predict.

  20. Bnoppe says:

    Alright folks don’t be shocked to see our models shift the storm further east to only swing it back towards us a little later in the week

  21. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    The Euro show EXTREME cold after the storm till the end of the run. That would be a great LES storm for sure. We are in the sweet spot in the Euro for a blizzard. I hope it stays consistent as it has been

  22. fixxxer says:

    Looks like another green xmas this year. ;)

    Im in a bah humbug mood anyways.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Shocker…

  23. INDY says:

    INDY has been telling u all for weeks now stay tuned for thee xmass storm!! WINTER STORM WATCHES COMING HUMPDAY!!!! Uncle Jack a storm cue !!!!!! INDyy

    1. Jack says:

      INDY.. Cue : REO Speedwagon – Ridin’ The Storm Out (Original … – YouTube
      ► 4:16► 4:16
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTBv4kAdk_w
      Dec 29, 2008 – Uploaded by jeffw1267
      This is the original version of “Ridin’ The Storm Out” by REO Speedwagon. I haven’t heard …

      1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

        That’s the first song that came to my mind after reading INDYs comment. Thanks for the link.

  24. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Mid December steady rain, gaining light in the evening, less than a inch of snow here this season yet, life is good! Next thing you know it will be Spring!!

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Just wait there is a surprise coming mid-late week :) Enjoy shoveling.

      1. fixxxer says:

        No theres not stephen all your doing is creating hype.

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          We will see ;)
          Was a nice week without hardly seeing your optimism.

        2. Bluewind says:

          And all you do is create stupidity.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Got that right barry. I hope this winter flies by.

  25. Bluewind says:

    Barry = fixxxer.

  26. INDY says:

    ************ 21 INCHES OF SNOW COMING ********** Starts humpday…Stay tuned ….INDYY…

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Ill bet most of the area sees 4-10 Indy!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ROCK n ROLL will never die? GET READY!

    3. Jack says:

      Indy it Looks Like it’s Going To Get Cold, Cold, COLD !!!! SPIN : Little Feat – Cold Cold Cold – YouTube
      ► 5:12► 5:12
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyQTtAm8yrA
      Nov 22, 2007 – Uploaded by jnerrot
      Pinkpop music festival, The Netherlands, June 1976.

    4. Steelie says:

      Good Day,

      21″ for the entire Winter… at this point it is a possibility… ;-) J/K

      Steelie

  27. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Only the government could take a high five degrees above normal, a low five degrees below normal, and say that works out to a +1* for the day. Have to maintain the illusion somehow. Here’s the official report from Atlantic City NJ yesterday..

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/279952098110611457/photo/1

    1. Cort S. says:

      Welcome to the world of rounding errors!

      (51+24)/2 = 37.5
      rounded up to 38

      (46+29)/2 = 37.5
      rounded down to 37

      Yup, stupid as it sounds. Bad code in the CLI product-generating script perhaps? Unless it was maliciously scripted that way to inflate the warming numbers! Everyone has their hypothesis, I guess.

      (Would this error matter for monthly departures? How do we come up with a monthly departure from normal? Add up all the whole-number daily departures then divide by the number of days? If that’s what we do, then we’ve got bigger problems with our methods… so many rounding errors compounding upon other errors.)

      Surely Joe is smart enough to figure this out too, and determine whether or not it actually affects longer-term climate data. If it does, his duty as a scientist is to correct it. The way he posts it on Twitter like he’s got a point to prove just turns this issue into a bunch of asshattery, giving the non-scientists on both sides the fodder with which to “RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE!” Counterproductive.

      1. Brad says:

        Great post.

      2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        Awesome post, Cort! Bastardi sure has an agenda, and it gets exposed all the time.

      3. michael g (SE GR) says:

        I don’t know what the reason is, but it is clear to simple folk like me that a high of five above normal and a low of five below normal should ALWAYS work out to a net of zero.

      4. Bill Steffen says:

        This is a concern that has been raised (along with average temperatures). Considering the proven history of temperature tampering, one does wonder if this is something that is was consciously done: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/

  28. michael g (SE GR) says:

    As for the storm late next week, I have higher that normal confidence in getting accumulating snow because, if the storm takes the farther south track we get snow, if it tracks farther north, we get rain, and then wraparound lake enhanced snow.

    1. OWK says:

      Hope so. Can you imagine if we get no snow and another dry spring and summer.

  29. OWK says:

    Anyone listen to Michael Savage on Friday? I think he was right,people don’t need semiautomatic guns or need to own more then one of them. Of course there is no way we can just out right ban them,maybe after a few decades of the police and the gov getting them off streets and of course the boarder situation would finally need fixing first. Maybe each gun would need to be bought with a safe?

    1. OWK says:

      IMO,I believe that is one of the biggest problems with guns,people don’t keep them locked up or hidden in their homes.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        I’ll just comment on this one time and avoid being drawn into an endless argument.

        Drugs have been illegal forever, and no one who really wants them has any trouble finding them. Same would be true if guns were illegal. Only the law abiding citizens would be unarmed, and would be even more at risk than they are now.

        1. Brad says:

          So let’s legalize drugs, and, for that matter, eliminate any law that can possibly be broken.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          lol

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Way to NOT answer Michael’s concern. There’s almost an inverse relationship between strict gun laws and murder rates in the U.S. In Switzerland, every family has a gun and Switzerland has one of the lowest murder rates in the world. The Germans didn’t want to invade Switzerland because every family had guns. We need to have common sense gun laws, including keeping guns away from people who have mental issues (Tucson, Newton) and addressing the common thread of violent video games (Newton, Columbine).

  30. michael g (SE GR) says:

    JB is standing by his winter forecast, still has us -2* for the winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28) with normal snowfall. Next 11 weeks will have to be chilly to make that verify.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Did you check out the European? if that verifies ill be sure to wear 2 winter coats lol.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The EURO looks great and the GFS is a horrible model this far out. Do you want probabilities? There is a strong probability that the GFS model is garbage and we will be getting accumulating SNOW by the end of this week! ROCK ON!

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Yep in the Illnois discussion they say the are leading toward the Euro and the GFS is starting to switch over to it as well.

        2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

          Yes typically speaking the GFS is junk until your 72 hours out however the system still has to be sampled by the weather ballons once that happens (Tues most likely) we should have a really good idea

  31. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I see that the CPC has finally come to their senses and have us the near normal temps and above normal snowfall for the next 6 to 14 days! It is about time they got on board. They had better get a link to the RDB model!

    1. OWK says:

      Rocky,if this happens I’ll never doubt you again.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Now you are talking. Get Ready to ROCK n ROLL!

    2. Mike in Hamilton says:

      I was about to post the same thing!

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

      Even near normal will seem quite cold relative to everything else we’ve been dealing with so far.

  32. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Normal Temps for that time period is 33-29

  33. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    I will wait until Wednesday to see what may come late next week. Afterall, wasn’t this Tuesday supposed to have been our first “measurable” snowfall according to long range about a week ago…?

    Steelie

  34. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z GFS is in. Still tracks the low through upper MI with rain on the front side, and wrap around lake enhanced snow on the back side. Trend is for the system to come in a bit faster. I would rather see a slower more southern track for widespread snow which the European is forecasting.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Also, GFS would have the snow/lake effect done by Friday. Short window for snow.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The GFS model needs to be blown up and re-created from scratch. I do not believe that the track of this storm will be any where near the current GFS model!!

        1. Cort S. says:

          The Europeans have invested a lot in initialization techniques, and it seems to have paid off. Running the GFS with the ECMWF’s initialization field shows improvement in the GFS. Your binary thought process is showing again.

    2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      SO It’s GFS VS EURO
      TEAMEURO!

      1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

        now as long as the Euro doesn’t start trending towards the GFS I’m cool

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        If I am betting on either the mid range EURO model or the mid range GFS model I will always bet on the EURO!! Don’t let me down TEAMEURO!

  35. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    For the past 2 years, the excuse has been “no moisture” for the wrap around lake effect. What’s different this time?

    1. Cort S. says:

      This one has moisture… in theory. How reality plays out, there is still the opportunity to get screwed by lack of moisture I suppose, depending on how the low evolves and how quickly it moves out of the region.

      I’ll dig into it a little further, since now I’m curious.

      Here is the relative humidity (green shades) at 850 mb, about a mile high in altitude: click here

      Aside from the moisture we’re drawing up from the Gulf of Mexico, it looks like our system will also get some moisture help on the back end from that system over Manitoba, and perhaps some Pacific moisture coming off the Rockies. How far the Low moves into Quebec before it stalls out, taking the moisture with it, will affect whether Friday’s lake effect is awesome or modest.

      1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

        If you had to guess right now cort would you lean on snow or more rain?

        1. Cort S. says:

          Rain on the front side, snow on the backside. The majority of our precip from this system and lake enhancement looks like snow right now.

        2. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Would you say it would be possible for say the Muskegon area to get atleast 4 inches?

        3. Cort S. says:

          Sure it’s possible, but I have no idea how possible.

        4. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Let’s park it right up over the Soo and let it sit there for about 36 hours. Not likely, but it sure would be nice.

  36. Sprites says:

    Cant say im an expert at interpreting models, but it definitely looks like much of the area has potential to see at least 4+” of snow over the Thursday/Friday time frame. Some areas that end up in the hot spots where LES bands set up could see 8″ or more I would think. Obviously way too early to tell. But the potential exists. I think many of us would be happy with even 2″. I know I would. Bottom line is, we finally have snow opportunities on the horizon. It makes this blog much more interesting.

  37. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Just asked my daughter’s magic 8 ball if we will if we’re gonna get a significant amount of snow. It answered “the signs point to yes.”

    Well, it’s settled.

    1. Cort S. says:

      This is good news. Winter is here! Just in time for the solstice too.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      This is priceless :)

  38. INDY says:

    Really don’t matter what way the low rolls truth is cold air is coming and the lk is warm going to blow up lake effectt like we have not felt in 20 years !!! So the fact of the sprite annd INDYY is right mid lk is 47*ter temps means snow of feets coming on this humpday we will call it dumpday!! SATY TUNED TO INDYY AND BIILS BLOGGIE!!INDYY..

  39. Brian(Grandville) says:

    There has been quite a bit of snow in Arizona over the past 36 hours. It seems like whenever there is snow in the south west, we usually get that weather about a week later.

  40. kevin. w says:

    Haven’t been on here in quite awhile but mother in law passed away unexpectedly and cousin got in a bad car accident and is in a coma so the roads this past week or so haven’t been really the greatest. I’m hearing of some snowstorm coming and haven’t had to look at a darn thing and I see Rocky is on steroids with the euro model. Golfing must be going to end and winter looks to start blowing in here pretty quick. Am exhausted from all the issues at hand but am doing ok.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Sorry to hear that Kevin.

      1. kevin. w says:

        Its been a rough road and it doesn’t sound good for my cousin were hoping for something good. The doctor says there is great brain activity and were just hoping for some sign of physical movement. The nurse cleaned him up and said his toes moved so the neurologist will be in tomorrow and do some testing to see if its something encouraging. So he’s not brain dead which is a good sign and his heart is strong so were hoping for the best. Maybe if we get a good blizzard maybe things will start getting better. :)

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Yeah my cousin was in a motorcycle accident and was in a coma and came out about 3 weeks ago. He is already back to work and driving. Things will change for the best for you and your family! I sure hope so, could see a DUMP of LES if the Euro is correct.

        2. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Im going to have my ankle and calf reconstructed in GR in a few weeks in January and i absolutely HATE GR traffic. It’s like people don’t pay attention. I really hope the roads are clear that day.

        3. Dan says:

          Sorry hear about your Mother in law, my condolences to you and your family, kevin.w! Also, I’m sorry to hear about your cousin! Lets hope he can begin to show MANY more positive signs over the next few days!

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Good luck with that Kevin.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The EURO ROCKS and no golf till March or April!

  41. kevin. w says:

    Ya we all have issues and I guess its part of life. Geeez Stephen are you sure you want to do that even during the winter. You must think were going to stay mild all the way through April. My mother had pins and screws done in February and got all healed up to only fall two days after she saw the doctor and said she was ok to walk. She then had to be put in a cast on her other leg for eight weeks and she’s been paying for the pain the past 30 years. Now that was a big pain. I gotta hit the sack I’m just whipped, I may come on here tomorrow and see whats up in the morning but have to make a road trip to see what the docs say about my cousin.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Well i really cant even walk without pain. The other surgeon screwed my foot up pretty bad. Im only 19 i want to be able t1o get back to work soon enough. Going to be a year recovery but well owrth it

  42. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Oh my how ironic that this BIG STORM may show it’s face on 12-21-12, ;-)

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      That date isn’t even relevant anymore unless the nutcase believes in it.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I’m only joking around because of a few that keep on reminding us all about it. After yesterdays tragic event it’s a reminder that no time, day, nor hour can be predicted about when the end will happen, it happens like a theif in the night and the day you die is the end of your world.

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

          Any day could be the end of the world. I still think there will be another tragic event this upcoming friday. Someones going to freak out because of the day and do something stupid.

        2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I hope you are wrong Stephen, but unlikely you won’t be. I remember 3yrs ago my childs school was on precautionary lock down, that call was SCARY! I still am in disbelief over yesterdays event, the “What if’s” and the “It could have been” keeps going through my mind about my own children my heart is in pieces for the families in CT.

  43. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    From Larry Cosgrove at Plymouth State University:
    MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK

    (Four To Ten Days From Now)

    Colorado/Trinidad “A” Cyclone Brings Threat Of Upper Midwest, Great Lakes Blizzard And Strong Thunderstorms To Parts Of Old South And Eastern Seaboard

    Plymouth State University Weather Server (2)

    NOAA/NCEP

    If the ECMWF and GGEM models are correct (that scheme is slightly further south with the storm track than its American counterpart, the GFS equation), a terrible winter storm will target the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in late week. This feature is actually critical to the outcome not only of the longer term (setting up a blocking pattern with more widespread cold across the lower 48 states), but may also be the lynchpin for the entire winter season. Both the NAEFS and CFS series continue to steer away from any significant cold air across the U.S. Indeed, if the outlook from CPC is correct (I do not think it is….), you should forget buying snow shovels and ice scrapers anywhere south of Minneapolis.

    I suspect, however, that the low (which forms as a Colorado/Trinidad “A” cyclone late Wednesday before digging into Oklahoma and then swinging northeastward toward the Detroit MI and Ottawa ON metros) will be the catalyst for change. One, by extending the deeper snowpack into the Chicago IL area (a requirement for important southeastward shifts to cold any winter). Secondly, setting off a heavy rain/thunderstorm event affecting most of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard. Thirdly, finally delivering a shock of Arctic air to much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. which, for the most part, looks to stick around for the remainder of December. A clue as to the impact of the cyclone will be a familiar one to snow lovers: the development of lake-related snow squalls which drift far to the south and east of the favored “leeshore belts” of the Great Lakes region.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Yes, the Canadian, and Euro are both on board with this storm. Hopefully it will trend another 50 miles to the south, that would we perfect for a great winter storm. Rocky, put the clubs away, winter arrives next Thursday/Friday.

      1. John (Holland) says:

        50 miles isn’t so much to ask over 5 days. Fingers crossed!!

    2. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Interesting read. The 00Z GFS for the 3rd straight run is keeping the low moving over northern Michigan. Still gives us some wrap around snow, but the flow is progressive so the lake effect does not last long, and by next Saturday, we are back above freezing.

      1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Looks like the GFS may very well be the winner. Canadian and UKMET almost identical to the GFS tracking the low through northern Michigan. A brief shot of snow on the backside, but temps moderate by next weekend.

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Briefly above freezing. Even the GFS feature a lot of northerly flow in the long range.

        1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

          My excitement level has dropped quite a bit. It looks like perhpas a few inches in the SW corner of the state from lake effect/enhanced. The 00Z GEM barely gives anyone a dusting. I guess the rain will help the lake levels.

    3. Cort S. says:

      Larry Cosgrove at Plymouth State University

      Never heard of him. I don’t think he is (or ever was) associated with this school. I am, though, so that’s cool.

      He is using maps from our website though, which is free for public use: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

  44. OWK says:

    Well after the events of Friday and watching the news today,I’m officially emotionally whipped.

    I declare that for the rest of tonight and all day tomorrow we have a don’t think/worry holiday. Turn off the horrible news and rent a movie,read a book or just chill out with your Ipad. Don’t worry or think about things till Monday. Ready? Go!

      1. OWK says:

        Thanks! Its always good to open up the good book.

  45. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    Emotional indeed.. I woke up this morning for a split second thinking was that real . :( Just to turn the tv on and there it was.. The stories of teachers saving lifes locking there students into closets as the shooter tried to make his way in. To the psychologist that ran toward the shooter to divert him from killing more kids and taking her life. Yea, very emotional. :(

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Right there with you Jeff. I can’t stop thinking about this innocent children and what those parents of 16-6yrs olds and 4-7yrs olds are going through, the adults ranging from 27-56yrs old that were also killed.

      1. Jack says:

        AMEN Swat-Zoo !!! CUE : Go Light Your World – Kathy Troccoli – YouTube
        ► 4:02► 4:02
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVqR6kTu8lE
        May 6, 2008 – Uploaded by sjveritas
        You are the light of the world. … Go Light Your World – Kathy Troccoli …. her everything an …

  46. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready to rumble, rock and roll. Winter is on the way. The track of the the low will shift a little to the South and the GR area will be seeing accumulating SNOW both from the system and from lake enhancement! Then the week of Christmas will be cold with more SNOW! ROCK n ROLL will never die, however the warm NO SNOW pattern is DOA!!

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