Sunday Showers
December 15th, 2012 at 10:39 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
1:55 PM update: I’m listening to the Bears/Packers game on my computer (WBBM). I’ve also got the game play on ESPN, which is running a play ahead of the radio (which has a time-delay). So, I’m really impressing my wife by “predicting” what the teams are going to do. She figured it out pretty quick…I was a little over the top. Green Bay leads 21-10 right now. How come the Bears/Packers game isn’t on FOX? They’ve got a Shrek movie on now. We’ve got our small group (from church) Christmas party later this PM. We decided on tacos…we do a white elephant gift…then maybe some board games. Lions play at Arizona at 4:05 pm. I’ve got some hot chocolate and the cats are zonked…nice afternoon. Still a few sprinkles/light showers/drizzle – most are SE of G.R.
Sunday PM models update: Chance spotty drizzle/sprinkles thru this evening…temps. above freezing, roads dry to wet. NAM (caribou) gives G.R. a high of 41 tomorrow, 43 Tues. with 0.09″ of rain Tuesday mid-afternoon into the evening, then 45 for a high on Weds. The GFS has upper 30s most of the day tomorrow (dry), low 40′s Tuesday with .02″ in the PM…then low 40s Weds. and mid 40s Thurs. Thursday we get rain changing to snow with 1-2″ accum. Thursday night. The GFS has the cold taking hold, with temperatures no warmer than the mid 30s from Dec. 21 to Dec. 31. The water temperature of Lake Michigan is still low-mid 40s, so the lake will provide lake-effect snow from time to time for the last 10 days of the month and we still have a decent chance of white Christmas. The European really brings in winter later this week. Thursday we start with rain, then it goes over to snow and it looks like G.R. would see 3-6″ of snow after the rain with a total of 1.51″ of precipitation. Then it’s below freezing over the weekend with snow showers. Bottom line…best to get your shopping done early in the week…the roads could be slick starting Thursday evening.
I’m back from Tennessee. We stopped and did some shopping in Shipshewana. We got a few gifts and some things for us. I was recognized several times in the store. That’s nice when people come up and say “hi”. I enjoy talking to and meeting people and if they recognize me…that means they watch me. It was a fantastic trip. We saw both Holiday concerts at the local high school and went out to dinner the 3rd night we were there. I got to see my sister’s (2) dogs and (6) cats. A couple of the cats actually like going out in the rain and a couple of them climb up on the roof of the house (by climbing a tree – they all have claws). We didn’t have to travel on slippery roads. We had several frosty/foggy mornings in Tennessee. We also had showers/wet roads coming back Saturday, but no snow or ice to slow us down. Gas was as low as $2.99 in NE TN and SE KY and $3.05 up I-75 in Ohio. One place had it at $2.93 with a “member’s discount”. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours and the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours. I work the 23rd, 24th, 25th and 31st. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast.
Also: Here’s a doomsday clock counting down the time until Dec. 21 (note: the doomsday clock for the Detroit Tigers missing the playoffs has already reached 00:00:00:00). The GFS is looking mighty chilly over much of the U.S. for the last week of December. The European model also has the cold air…Mickey Mouse may need earmuffs on Christmas Eve! OK, it’s the GFS, but it has a major snowstorm for the East Coast Cities on the 27th. The 850-1000mb thickness in W. Michigan is about 512. That’s maybe low 20s with lake-effect snow and flurries. The Canadian model is also cold and snowy. Here’s Cyclone Evan near Figi. Winter has come to a significant part of Arizona before it’s come to parts of Lower Michigan. Snowfall totaled 20.5″ at Bellemont AZ and 20.3″ at Flagstaff. High temperatures out West on Saturday: 46 Sacramento, 49 San Franciscon, 51 Las Vegas..it never got past the mid 50s in Tucson and stayed in the 50s in L.A. and San Diego. ALSO: Snow sculpture from Simon Beck.
Bill welcome back…….However,dont leave us again…..I was wo’n wee. Daddy’s home.
What the hell?
“Big Daddy Bill Stephen” He be Da’ Man and Sh**.
Hello BILL : I Know Your Probably Sick of Reading Highway Signs,But Here Is ONE MORE .
http://i.123g.us/c/gen_youarewelcome/card/109090.gif
Hope you enjoyed your trip Bill! It looks like FINALLY we might get some sort of prolonged winter weather in West Michigan! I’m hoping the Thursday/Friday system brings at least some good LES, i think the system as a whole could wind up being a pleasant surprise!
Wb Bill ! Glad you had a great time.
I honestly can’t believe how many fricken vacations you take. Hard to believe someone with a bachelors degree makes 200K per year and gets two months off for vacations. And you regularly trash teachers, most of which have masters degrees and make a quarter of what you make. Anyway, glad you’re home. I was missing all your right-wing cut and pastes, and gloating about Lansings’ latest assault on the middle class.
man, you’re an ass…
Bill is a great guy and I think you need to fact check yourself. The guy made a good living for himself and is very talented. Sorry for your envy.
The vast majority of the “middle class” is not in a union. They work hard and many of them make less money than union workers and have no defined pension awaiting them. I have a daughter who is a social worker for a non-profit. She loves what she does. She doesn’t make a lot of money. No one is getting rich at the non-profit. Management are very middle class. How can you ask my daughter to pay confiscatory taxes to support people who retire 10 years earlier than she will and will get a pension higher than her salary? If you really cared about the middle class, you’d care about ALL the middle class, not just the minority in unions.
Have yet to see Bill ‘trash’ a teacher. Yet you crap forth ignorance every time you log in. Stupidity at it’s finest.
Then you haven’t been paying attention, Sweetheart. HE HATES PUBLIC EDUCATION and has said it loud and proud on here countless times. He also hates unions, environmentalists, democrats, and scientists.
I’m a scientist and a product of public education! Here’s what’s happening in public education: http://www.mlive.com/news/bay-city/index.ssf/2012/10/bay_city_teachers_union_gave_4.html
The article says: “The Bay City Public Schools teachers contract would allow teachers to come to school under the influence of alcohol five times before being fired, three strikes under the influence of drugs and two if teachers are caught selling drugs. The language has been in the contract since 1997.”
Now, I ask you honestly…does the union have the best interest of children in mind when they insist that drunk and drug-dealing teachers remain in the classroom? Why do you support this?
Making up for lost time?
How about the latest union’s assault or threat on Gov. Snyder’s family? I wonder if there is someone in the crowd that is trying to stir up hate in our state and country…spiritual battle!
@BDBC:If you can’t say something nice,don’t say anything at all.
wow – when one has almost 40 years in the business you deserve the benefits – vacations is one of them – I have 30 years in my job and get 6 weeks of paid time off – enjoy your trips Bill – you deserve them…
What a jerk. See, I think they work a rotation. Like us medics do. If I PTO every wed, then every other week I have a 7 day off stretch. I can make my weak 3 weeks of PTO I get last a long time.
And in other threads, he’s defended the same accusation from BDBC.
I have never witnessed Bill trashing a teacher. You’ll have to show me where that is. Big Daddy, are you green? Why would you be blame Bill for what he has done and the life he has accomplished for himself? He is not to blame for your own lot in life, Big Daddy! I know, you post to get many riled up. You SHOULD seriously check your facts!
That was just really nasty and uncalled-for, big Daddy. It’s one thing to disagree about global warming and whatnot, and quite another to take digs at someone’s time spent with family, especially around Christmas.
Wow that was extremely mature…sounds to me like someones jealous.
BDBC is a typical left wing “Progressive.” Spreads the seeds of envy and class warfare regardless of how many years a person toiled to become successful. If you took away Bill’s vacation, pay and benefits, exactly how would that benefit you? Profit, prosperity and hard work are now swear words to you. Pretty sad when a guy gets ahead, certain groups want to take it away, just because they think that person has made too much or has become too successful. Sad state of affairs.
Ned, Ned, Ned. Bill’s been selling anti-labor BS on here for the last year. He’s a political tool and a hypocrite for screaming about how much teachers make and how much time they get off when he’s got ‘em all beat on less education by 5x!! Makes me sick.
I’m trying to protect children. The union is trying to protect drunk and drug-dealing teachers: http://www.mlive.com/news/bay-city/index.ssf/2012/10/bay_city_teachers_union_gave_4.html
From the M-Live article:
“The Bay City Public Schools teachers contract would allow teachers to come to school under the influence of alcohol five times before being fired, three strikes under the influence of drugs and two if teachers are caught selling drugs. The language has been in the contract since 1997.”
He earned it. Unlike people who achieve ironclad lifetime tenure after 3 weeks on the job.
Wow, clearly your life sucks.
Wow that is really uncalled for. He has been working for Woodtv for a long time. He probably accrued vacation and sick days. Most companies give 2 weeks + after 10 years of service. Sounds to me like you are jealous.
You sycophants make me want to puke. Bill Steffen, more often on older posts that most of you don’t read, regularly trashes working people. He hates the poor and pushes a right-wing ideology that hurts the sick, young, veterans, and most vulnerable, retirees. He’s likens himself to one of the elites he’s able to rub elbows with as one of west Michigan’s local celebs and so works on their behalf to push anti-labor, anti-public school, anti-middle class rhetoric.
I’m glad he makes a good living and can take vacations every month, but the fact that he thinks public schools should be replaced by charters, that unions should go away, that health care should exist only for the wealthy, and that our job as tax payers is to provide infrastructure for CEOs and corporations that s&*t on us for profit as our middle class slowly sinks into poverty qualifies him as Snyder’s Man of the Year.
I don’t trash “working people”. I’M a “working people” BTW. I point out that climate profiteers like you want “skyrocketing” utility rates and $9 a gallon “European level” gasoline prices. That would really hurt the middle class and the poor. It would do NOTHING to budge global temperature. I’m on the side of the middle class, not you!
Bill, people give you a hard time way too much. I know there’s a lot of people who like you but I think it’s odd that so many people make slams to you, especially when what they say is fabricated or completely false. I give you a lot of credit for what you do. Being a meteorologist for a big news station is big in itself, but it’s even more of an accomplishment when you factor in that you forecast weather in a region that is very complex and tough to make a forecast for. Kudos to you. Some of the other people have a terrible misconception about who you are and what you do.
Take care Bill,
Zack
most judge due to ignorance – gossip or jealousy. how can one judge a man when they don’t know them? Each person has issues – we can not judge others – let God do that as we are called to love all (even the ones who aren’t so loveable.
Love our enemies.
BTW: Bill, I appreciate what you do greatly.
The Mayans did not account for leap years,so we are in the clear already.
Well, and I think of all the prophets of the demise of a civilization, the Mayans should have seen theirs coming…LOL
Looks like next week is going to be interesting.
Euro has had slight shift northward overnight while GFS remains consistent. Still too early to tell anything but if this trend contiues it won’t be good for system snow
How about that 6Z run of the GFS? Wintry enough for me!
Link?
Any link?
Dec 16th and still only a few traces of snow here in Zeeland on this season. Does anyone know that latest date of the first recorded inch of snow for West Michigan?
So how was that EURO model for you guys
Wouldn’t be surprised if we’re already past your ridiculous 20″ seasonal forecast by January 1st.
Deb = Odor goon
BIG SNOWS ARE A COMING 3 MORE DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL BE WHITE TEMPS IN THE 20′S INDYYY WAS RIGHT!!!!! STILL DRINKING SPRITES FROM ALL NIGHT!! INDYY…
INDY look at the EURO it now shows all rain next week for west Michigan so I would not get any hopes up!
Hey OG, can you post the link to the euro? I’d like to see what you’re looking at.
I meant mostly rain I do see some snow though but it has trended the low slightly more north showing significant snow for Chicago to Milwaukee and more of a rain and snow mix for WM
And Madison and Green Bay
Right. And the link?
No link I’m just saying don’t get you’re hopes up!
No link because YOU HAVEN’T EVEN LOOKED AT THE EURO.
I bet you’re the one not looking do you not see that the low has trended more north meaning mostly rain and some snow for you
GFS remains locked in on a track right through Michigan. With all the models showing a similar track, I doubt we’ll see the low move further south…which means mostly rain for us. A few inches of lake effect/enhanced if that is all the models are showing now. Gaylord NWS suggests the possibility the models could start showing the low move even further north and west. I was thinking we would need a major storm to change this pattern, but even after the storm, it is not looking as cold as it was a couple days ago.
Exactly that’s what I’m trying to tell Michael right now he’s just setting him self up for a huge disappointment no pattern change is on the way!
Lying odor goon.
Ok but let’s just see what you say on Thursday oh yeah I bet I know ugh no snow! And then you’ll be disappointed as usuall!
It’s even showing 40′s for you guys on Christmas Eve I see no white Christmas a green Christmas for you guys
I’d love to take that bet about 40′s on Christmas Eve. From Bill’s post above..
The European model also has the cold air…Mickey Mouse may need earmuffs on Christmas Eve! OK, it’s the GFS, but it has a major snowstorm for the East Coast Cities on the 27th. The 850-1000mb thickness in W. Michigan is about 512. That’s maybe low 20s with lake-effect snow and flurries. The Canadian model is also cold and snowy
It has changed Michael give it up there is no pattern change on the way!
Hey Michael this is for you see how the low is right over you meaning mostly rain if not all rain
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=90352&source=0
Deb ur an annoying negative troll go troll on a blog from where u live will ya?
Holy cats. Please try to add a comma, or a period to your sentences. I could give two sh!ts if it is snow or rain. It’s your lack of respect for proper sentence structure that gives me a headache. Your level of ignorance and rudeness is rare. It kind of forces me to read your posts. So, at the very least, make it pleasant for those of us who must suffer through the rantings of such an obviously damaged individual.
Shut the fu** up!
WOW?
I’m getting so sick of ppl commenting and saying to correct my grammar! If they don’t like it then they can ignore it!
Deb, you seriously act like a child…its time to grow up and start respecting other people’s opinions…because right now there is nobody who takes you seriously.
Ignore me Braden if you don’t like me!
Its kind of hard to when you post as often as you do…
Where exactly is Oklahoma City, Michigan? Trollolo.
I would guess somewhere near Ann Harbor, wherever the hell that is.
Par for the course as the models try to latch on to what may happen with this storm! It has been quiet for a long time so, I think the models will spit out all kinds of different information until just before the storm. I’d say we will get a much better read on about Tuesday or Wednesday!
Agreed.
Deb. Either one, you choose.
https://twitter.com/TeamCoco/status/276060480211136512/photo/1
I guess you guys are quite lucky though, because a majority of you guys have already had measurable snow while some areas have not yet!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=90089&source=0
Good Day,
Although waiting for the forcast on Wednesday… stuff like this from GRR/NWS makes you want to scratch your head:
OUTSIDE OF THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM THE LONG TERM APPEARS PRETTY
QUIET. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARD RAIN
INTO THURSDAY. NEXT SATURDAY MAY FEATURE A BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WITH A QUICK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. OVERALL THE
PATTERN IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH NO BIG INTRUSION OF COLD AIR OR
UPPER TROUGHING AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WED/THUR TRENDING COOLER AND MORE TOWARD NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT.
Steelie
I am not surprised at all. We are in a warm pattern and looks like we may stay in that pattern. While it should turn colder as we head into January there is no guarantee that will happen.
SlimJim
Well, I’m predicting “continued warm” because Hubby bought me a really badazz snowmobile yesterday. Doesn’t that pretty much doom the entire winter?? LOL!! I hope like heck someone buys Rocky some awesome golf clubs – maybe that will even things out!
Still to early to get excited either way
Good Day,
Again, it is only Sunday and we have a few days yet for the models to grab a hold of this… but even Gaylord NWS is getting twitchy:
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SHARP UPPER TROF THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT…AND LIFTS
OVER MI BY LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS NE FROM
OK…CROSSING MI ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS
FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS…THE ONES THAT ARE CONFIDENTLY ALL
SNOW…HAVE DROPPED OUT. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS MOVE FROM SW
LOWER TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON…IMPLYING A RAIN-SNOW LINE SOMEWHERE
IN NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD STILL HIT US HARD ON
THE BACKSIDE…WITH STRONG WINDS/COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND PLENTY
OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION/LAKE PROCESSES. HOWEVER…A FEW
MODEL MEMBERS (THE DGEX MOST NOTABLY) HAVE A TRACK PASSING TO OUR
WEST…WITH MOSTLY LIQUID OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM…AND NOT BEING
WELL-PLACED TO CATCH THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AT ALL. GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS TOWARD A MORE WRAPPED-UP AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM…THE
CHANCE FOR A NEAR-MISS WITH THE MORE WESTERN TRACKS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
Things could change…
Steelie
Yes Steelie things could still change the low could go west of Milwaukee and we could get all rain and little snow.
SlimJim
Get ready, a pattern change is on the way. GR will be seeing cold air and accumulating SNOW starting the end of this week and the week of CHRISTMAS!
I’ll believe it when I see it!
ROCK ON Derek!
Might see snow for a day or two. Word to the wise. Keep the golf clubs near by. You’ll get to use them soon again. Welcome to “wish it was winter II.”
I expect the Thursday low pressure to go through Indy and then near Detroit!
Forecasting Denial: Why Are TV Weathercasters Ignoring Climate Change?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/forecasting-denial-why-are-tv-weathercasters-ignoring-climate-change-20121205#ixzz2FEBCLQVI
Because this issue is so political and partisan. This is a major problem in our country – this political divide is so wide and divisive that it is is a major problem in our country. The division between liberals and conservatives, repubs and dems is outrageous. It is so bad that it could be raining outside the neither side could agree that it is actually raining. Our political system is a disgrace and is 100% dysfunctional!
More to life than politics.
I dont know about being 100% dysfunctional, but lest just say there is a lot of disagreements on many issues. On the other hand if ever one agreed on everything would that really solve all of the issues?
SlimJim
No, however political parties do not know how to compromise anymore, therefore nothing is getting done and it is getting worse every day!! Dysfunctional and disgraceful!
The problem is that politics have become like sports, super black-and-white. Are you on Team Red or Team Blue? ::eyeroll:: It makes for exciting news, higher ratings, and oh, more $$$ around election time for the news stations and “talking heads,” so they love to fan the flames whenever possible.
I’m guessing there are a heck of a lot more people who identify as moderate and would appreciate some compromise. The partisan posturing and bickering would end and things would actually get done! Whodathunk?
And by news stations, I’m meaning the major cable networks like FOX, MSNBC, CNN, etc., who only make money if they get people to tune in to the stories of the day and identify with their particular political perspective.
100% agree!!
Rolling Stone…now there’s a leading scientific journal! LOL!!
First I’m also ignoring Armadillos and Persian Rugs! Television meteorologists give weather forecasts. We don’t shill for climate profiteers!
CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UUu4wjeS_Kc
Even the most rabid of climate alarmists has been forced to admit that global temperatures are not rising: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/314205289421361153/photo/1
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif
For those of you that do not think we will be changing into a cold and snowy pattern at the end of this coming week, please check back with me in about a week!!! You will be in for rude awakening. GET READY GR!!!
If we step back and think about this are we more quickly to disagree with the models when they show something we like or not we have to keep in mind that until the storm system can be sampled by the rdm network the best guess is about a 100 mile area
Its a mild (for mid December) and wet 47° here. At the half way mark this month we are running +8 temp wise. While we have had 1.22″ or liquid precipitation GR has only recorded 1.4″ of snow fall. And we are only at 1.7″ of snow fall for the season so far. GR also has not a day where the temp has stayed below 32° I wonder what the latest date for a high of 32 or coder is???
While there looks to be a big system come into our area late this week that one now looks to be either over head or to our NW so a good chance of more rain later this week.
SlimJim
Meet The Climate Denial Machine – http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/11/28/meet-the-climate-denial-machine/191545#bastardi
The article includes Joe Bastardi.
Just proves my point. If you are a far right wing conservative you will not ever believe in climate change caused by man and if you are far left wing liberal you will strongly believe that the right wingers are nuts and will never listen to scientific data that supports climate change. It is no win situation!
We have 4 percent of the population yet we’re willing to trash our economy to try to save the planet from “warming”
Oh yeah Media Matters. That’s a neutral source. Lol.
Whoa…so I’m part of a “machine” now! You’re whole climate profiteering/cronyism is crumbling!
CO2 emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UUu4wjeS_Kc
Even the most rabid of climate alarmists has been forced to admit that global temperatures are not rising: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif
NWS Detroit backing away now too… pretty quiet with no arctic air in sight. Simply getting back to average temps at the end of their outlook:
“With a strong surface low pressure system expected to lift into Lower Michigan, mild air in advance of the system would bring primarily rain or a rain/snow mix going to rain during the primary deepening phase of the system with a gradual change to snow as colder air wraps into the system. Current timing would bring increased chances of primarily rain late Wednesday night into Thursday with precipitation then becoming lighter and more scattered in nature late Thursday into Thursday night as it mixes with and then changes to snow showers as the center of the system shifts to the east of the area.
Colder air, although not as cold as models suggested a few days ago, settles into the area to end this forecast period within the northwest upper flow on backside of the eastern Contiguous U.S. upper trough carved out as this system progresses through its life cycle. This will bring temperatures close to average for late December as highs remain mainly in the 30s and lows drop to near 20.”
We should end the month well above average temp wise. And remember this is above the new 30 year average witch is warmer then the old 30 year average.
SlimJim
Do any bloggers actually make outdoor plans past 4 days? or do you just cross your fat little fingers?
Been a while Skot…just got back from my stay in Jackson. Look forward to seeing you on Christmas.
do you ever think before you open your mouth?
as i said a million times we will have another green xmas this year.
While still 9 days away and things could change. That idea of a green Christmas again this year is a possibility.
SlimJim
I think a green Xmas is likely for central and southern Michigan this year!
White Christmas for GR about a 90 to 95% chance!
I would think at this time 50/50 would be really pushing it. Will have a better handle on that next Sunday.
SlimJim
Just sit back and watch my man SlimJim!
Milwaukee forecast discussion. Looks more and more like a cold rain here in our area, only if the storm moves about 150-200 miles more south, and that’s a stretch.
RAIN IN FAR SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD TURN OVER TO SNOW
BUT MUCH OF THE LIQUID COULD BE WASTED AS RAIN OR A MIX. THUS FAR
SOUTHEAST MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING ADVISORY SNOWS IF THIS PANS OUT.
They have the disadvantage of not getting the lake-enhanced snow behind this system. I think West Michigan needn’t worry about busting on the snowfall as much as Milwaukee.
Good point Cort.
Each model run is bringing it further south…. We may be worrying about it being too south before long!!
How about 986mb over Saginaw Bay??? Regardless of where it goes we’ll know it. I’m guessing 45-55mph winds with this. That in itself is a weather maker.
Yeah, the winds will bite! I’m going to run head-on into this cold front in Pennsylvania on my way home from New England.
12z GFS may have shifted the low slightly SE. Looks like the low would track directly over GR. Still looks like 2-4″ of snow on the backside for most areas.
12z gem now has the low over Toledo. Ukmet now over the thumb area. Gfs still over northern mi.
12z GEM Rocks! The GFS is out to lunch.
Even the GFS gives at least the Grand Rapids/Muskegon area a couple of inches of snow.
Jim, the GFS does NOT have it over northern MI. It has the low go from very SW lower MI to the thumb.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2012121612_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_096.gif
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2012121612_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_102.gif
Probably goes right over Lansing…
Snow map: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR
Getting soooooo close.
I don’t know about lower thumb….but close enough. Here is the GFS link.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=&fcast=102&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Even with the further south track of the GEM, it is rain changing to snow, with a little better chance of snow on the backside. The following link you can animate to see the precip and track of the low on the GEM.
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
So much warm air north of the low…urgh. I can see the scenario playing out, with snow just north of Muskegon in Oceans county. It seems to happen a lot lately.
Seems to change with every model run! This is one to watch for sure. Now it just can’t go TOO far south.
It’s so nice that fizzer thinks a green xmas maybe he can stop coming on Bills blogg with thee name fizzer he only hold 33 other names on here can’t u all tell and read, Bill even told me so!!!!! BACK TO WINGTER BOYS AND GALS GET READY!! ROCKYROCKFORD IS READY!!!! INDYY….
The RDB model shows 3 to 6 inches of snow for GR! ROCK n ROLL baby!
Can you post a link is puld like to see! I know it sounds weird because I don’t live in MI I just want to see the link please!
*I would*
I actually agree with you, Deb.
I think Rocky has posted before that “he can’t because it is a paid link”…
I always thought the RDB model was his own personal model… the model that runs on an old-fashioned computer: his brain. That model is usually pretty accurate from my experience.
No link available, however the RDB model is far more reliable than the old GFS model!
How do we get to that model then?
Cort your comments are priceless and yes the RDB brain model (Rockford Dart Board) model is usually far better than the old GFS model
12Z GFS snowfall forecast.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR
10:1 Ratio shows JUST how close we are to the snow band: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR
We need it to go about 50 to 100 miles farther southeast.
It will probably keep shifting south, I hope for you Michiganders hoping for a white Christmas or significant snow get this event but at this point it’s still 4 days pit so anything can happen
*out
Thanks for the kind words!
If, and it’s a BIG if we would lets say get 4 inches of snow next Thursday. I’d be willing to bet that much of if not all of it has melted by Christmas morning.
120 hours takes us to 7 a.m. Friday. This map confirms our thoughts that the heaviest synoptic snowfall on Thursday will be in a band from central WI to northern MI, north of the Low, whereas rain is more likely in southern MI until the Low passes by. It seems like it’s putting down some light accumulations in SW MI from the lake-enhanced snow on Thursday night, but who knows if it’s really predicting it correctly? These automated snowfall forecast maps are heavily derived products, prone to fail because they are based upon oodles of assumptions which are not always true, depending on the storm.
I’m not placing any bets on this storm until Wednesday morning. Hopefully a more southerly track will evolve. Now, time for football.
Yes a more southerly track means a potential blizzard for GR. Bring it on!
Just like I said Friday, this low will go more NW of michigan just as this last one. More rain, then northwest wind with little snow in GRR. and more for the SW west viewing area. And by the way I will not fill up my gas can for my snow blower this week and maybe I will be wrong and we get nailed.
So I see the Temps are on the way up on the eight day forecast. I am sure in the next 24 hours they will be in the mid 30s by next weekend.
And the hype bubble once again begins to burst as reality comes crashing in……
Winter is still just two weeks away. Again. lol
Just two days ago WOOD had 34 for Tues and 35 for Wed. Now, 39 and 41, and probably will be raised again.
Still feeling pretty good about our snow chances. Like Cort said, the GFS normally doesn’t do a very good job at predicting lake enhancement. I could easily see a lot of areas picking up 3-6″ of snow on the backside of the system even if the low does pass over northern Michigan. I still like our chances of the low moving over Toledo/Detroit and giving us a bigger storm and then more off of the lake on the backside.
I’m watching Shrek, could care less about any other team other than the Lions (they play at 4!). Hoping for snow next week!
fixxx, boy how I missed you. I MMmmmm BAAAAAACK!!!!
If they Euro pans out we are in the sweet spot!
http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ecmwf-12/ec_sfc6-ani.html
Yeah at the same time the GFS has the low over southwest michigan the Euro has it over southern Illinois
seeing as the Euro has been FAR more accurate the that garbage model
Ready for a storm gang? Straight from Tom Skilling
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151320333931760&set=a.10150114911481760.319343.87625716759&type=1&theater
Get your Sprites ready Indy!
Weird. Odor Goon Deb said this mornings run of the Euro didn’t give us any snow.
Cold coming after Christmas too!
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/280410795802779648/photo/1
Now that is one impressive map! He is showing the low more to the southeast than the GFS. Imagine that – he has it more towards Detroit and Toledo? Interesting and this matches up with the RDB model much better. Get Ready to ROCK n ROLL people!
It looks like now that is warm, we are getting lake effect RAIN from SW influence…. “rolls eyes”
.LONG TERM…(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012
IT/S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE…..WINTER! THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN ROCKIES LOW
THAT MODELS SHOW TAKING TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT NOT HIGH YET THAT WE/LL SEE A
STORM OF SOME SORT AFFECTING LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC AND SO MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON IT YET. THAT SAID…IT/S BEEN IN THE MODELS FOR A FEW
RUNS AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN TRACK AND STRENGTH.
HOWEVER THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A
BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT/S PREVIOUS RUN. SO HAS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF
TRACKS THE LOW OVER DETROIT. AS A RESULT THE MODELS ARE A BIT COLDER
THAN PREVIOUSLY AND WOULD SUPPORT A CHANGE TO SNOW QUICKER.
DESPITE BEING FARTHER EAST THAN IT/S PREVIOUS ITERATION…THE GFS IS
STILL FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF. BUT THE TREND EWD MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT. AS A RESULT WE/LL WEIGHT MORE OF A SOLUTION TOWARD THE
ECMWF.
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA EARLY THURSDAY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF A SOUTH HAVEN TO ST JOHNS LINE WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTH OF THERE EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO SNOW.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. IT/S ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE
CWA BEFORE FILLING AS IT MOVES OVER CANADA.
WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT A SWATH OF SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. IT/S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS
SWATH WILL AFFECT THE CWA. EXACTLY WHERE IS STILL NOT NAILED DOWN.
Thoughts of GRR
Sounds good to me.
HWO by IWX
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A POTENT WINTER STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT REMAINS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS…ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED BY THIS STORM. STAY TUNED TO UPDATED FORECASTS THROUGH
THIS WEEK AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
Interesting how they mention the risk of accumulations over SW lower
Well if you have seen the models they mostly are trending more SE ward which puts us in the sweet spot
Lake effect/enhanced snow belts with a NW wind. From IWX, they consider SW Lower MI to be Berrien, Cass, and maybe St. Joe counties. Can’t wait to come home to Michigan on Friday!
I guess I better get my snow blower ready and filled and my generator figured out so I don’t blow up the house!
Lol
Seems like every year, every possible winter storm were fighting over the rain/snow line….quite annoying..