Sunday Showers

December 15th, 2012 at 10:39 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   1:55 PM update:   I’m listening to the Bears/Packers game on my computer (WBBM).  I’ve also got the game play on ESPN, which is running a play ahead of the radio (which has a time-delay).  So, I’m really impressing my wife by “predicting” what the teams are going to do.  She figured it out pretty quick…I was a little over the top.   Green Bay leads 21-10 right now.  How come the Bears/Packers game isn’t on FOX?  They’ve got a Shrek movie on now.  We’ve got our small group (from church) Christmas party later this PM.  We decided on tacos…we do a white elephant gift…then maybe some board games.  Lions play at Arizona at 4:05 pm.  I’ve got some hot chocolate and the cats are zonked…nice afternoon.   Still a few sprinkles/light showers/drizzle – most are SE of G.R.

Sunday PM models update:  Chance spotty drizzle/sprinkles thru this evening…temps. above freezing, roads dry to wet.  NAM (caribou) gives G.R. a high of 41 tomorrow, 43 Tues. with 0.09″ of rain Tuesday mid-afternoon into the evening, then 45 for a high on Weds.  The GFS has upper 30s most of the day tomorrow (dry), low 40′s Tuesday with .02″ in the PM…then low 40s Weds. and mid 40s Thurs.  Thursday we get rain changing to snow with 1-2″ accum. Thursday night.  The GFS has the cold taking hold, with temperatures no warmer than the mid 30s from Dec. 21 to Dec. 31.  The water temperature of Lake Michigan is still low-mid 40s, so the lake will provide lake-effect snow from time to time for the last 10 days of the month and we still have a decent chance of white Christmas.  The European really brings in winter later this week.  Thursday we start with rain, then it goes over to snow and it looks like G.R. would see 3-6″ of snow after the rain with a total of 1.51″ of precipitation.  Then it’s below freezing over the weekend with snow showers.  Bottom line…best to get your shopping done early in the week…the roads could be slick starting Thursday evening.

I’m back from Tennessee.  We stopped and did some shopping in Shipshewana.  We got a few gifts and some things for us.  I was recognized several times in the store.  That’s nice when people come up and say “hi”.  I enjoy talking to and meeting people and if they recognize me…that means they watch me.  It was a fantastic trip.  We saw both Holiday concerts at the local high school and went out to dinner the 3rd night we were there.  I got to see my sister’s (2) dogs and (6) cats.  A couple of the cats actually like going out in the rain and a couple of them climb up on the roof of the house (by climbing a tree – they all have claws). We didn’t have to travel on slippery roads.  We had several frosty/foggy mornings in Tennessee.  We also had showers/wet roads coming back Saturday, but no snow or ice to slow us down.  Gas was as low as $2.99 in NE TN and SE KY and $3.05 up I-75 in Ohio.  One place had it at $2.93 with a “member’s discount”.  Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours and the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours.  I work the 23rd, 24th, 25th and 31st. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast.

Also:  Here’s a doomsday clock counting down the time until Dec. 21 (note:  the doomsday clock for the Detroit Tigers missing the playoffs has already reached 00:00:00:00).  The GFS is looking mighty chilly over much of the U.S. for the last week of December.  The European model also has the cold air…Mickey Mouse may need earmuffs on Christmas Eve!  OK, it’s the GFS, but it has a major snowstorm for the East Coast Cities on the 27th.  The 850-1000mb thickness in W. Michigan is about 512.  That’s maybe low 20s with lake-effect snow and flurries.  The Canadian model is also cold and snowy.   Here’s Cyclone Evan near Figi.  Winter has come to a significant part of Arizona before it’s come to parts of Lower Michigan.  Snowfall totaled 20.5″ at Bellemont AZ and 20.3″ at Flagstaff.  High temperatures out West on Saturday:  46 Sacramento, 49 San Franciscon, 51 Las Vegas..it never got past the mid 50s in Tucson and stayed in the 50s in L.A. and San Diego.            ALSO:  Snow sculpture from Simon Beck.

 

 

274 Responses to “Sunday Showers”

  1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z GFS sticking to its guns tracking the low through Michigan. This run seems to wrap up the system a bit more, with a little more snow on the back side of the system than the last few runs before it. The 18Z NAM only goes out to 84 hrs but seems to take the low further west and is a bit quicker…but too early for the NAM to get a good handle on it yet.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      The NAM is NEVER reliable until 48 hours.
      Plus the Euro has been consistent for just about 4 days now.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        The GFS and Euro never seem to agree. In this case, they switched places, as the Euro is often the model more north and west…so hopefully the GFS and NAM will head in that direction. The GFS is slightly farther south this run.

        1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

          every mile helps!

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          That’s for sure, Kevin!

    2. Looks like souther Illinois to Lake Erie on the EURO, Snow look real big if that pans out prob 6-10, but way to early to get excited just yet, but the GFS is also a bit southeast from the 12z

  2. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    Get ready snow lovers , a new blanket of snow heading our way by weeks end ! Rocky, YOU READY TO ROLL IN DA SNOW MY FRIEND. :)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I am more than READY. I am ready to put the golf clubs away and break out the skis and the SNOW BLOWER! Bring it on.

      1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        I will be leaving the snowblower in the shed, unfueled. I think you all know why…your welcome.

  3. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Snow is coming for Thursday into Friday….

  4. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Hello all my fellow bloggers I haven’t been on here in a while. I just moved to Rothbury from Rockford. Do you all remember me?

  5. michael g (SE GR) says:

    18Z GFS would give us a period of near blizzard conditions on Thursday evening/night after a start as rain. Roads would be a disaster in this kind of scenario.

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      Ahhh, so the GFS is starting show it’s ducks. :P

      1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

        The GFS is listening to its friend the EURO

        1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

          I always thought the 18Z was like the crazy relative that you secretly laughed at?

        2. Nathan says:

          What does 18z mean? I still haven’t figured that out.

        3. Kevin(Rockford) says:

          Sorry for the long read
          Model Times

          Weather never stops, and computer models are always running to predict the next major hurricane or tornado outbreak. Most computer models are issued four times a day. These times are 0000UTC, 0600UTC, 1200UTC, and 1800UTC. The e-Wall displays all models from the four different time periods on its homepage. For a new user of weather forecasting models, the issuance of the model four times a day may be confusing. How do you know when to use each model?

          First, the model times that are listed above are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC, also known as GMT or Zulu time). This is the time at the Royal Observatory in Greenwich, England. The reason why we use UTC time in weather instead of our own local time is because twice a day, weather balloons are sent up into the atmosphere throughout the whole world. Due to the various time zones across the world, if a memo was sent around the world that said to launch weather balloons at 8:00pm across the whole world, the every place across the world would be launching weather balloons at different times of the day!!! A universal time system was developed so that at any given moment, it is the same time everywhere around the world. This time system is UTC time.

          Several major questions now remained unanswered. How do you know when to use a specific model run, and how do you convert from your local time zone to UTC time?

          For users in the United States, during standard time (ST), users along the east coast are 5 hours behind UTC time, while users along the west coast are 8 hours behind UTC time. During daylight saving time (DT), users along the east and west coast are 4 and 7 hours behind UTC time respectively.

        4. Skot says:

          @ Nathan…..The “Z” in that means ZULU as in Military jabber.
          Think in terms of Military time. 0 hundred hours or 23.00 hours.

    2. John (Holland) says:

      I don’t wish any poor road conditions on anyone, but I am SO ready for a nasty snowstorm.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Bring on the bad road conditions! Just drive a lot slower and do not tail gate. This is winter in MI bring on the snow, the wind, the cold and the snow drifts, etc, etc, etc. Get ready to ROCK n ROLL GR!

        1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

          First snowfall is a blizzard? Diiiitch Parties all night long!

    3. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Yes, please. :) Winter needs to make up for lost time.

  6. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Looks like were in for a blast of snow right before Christmas can’t wait, my kids keep asking me how’s Santa going to get here.

  7. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

    I hope we get something. At this point I would be happy with a few inches but a big jump into winter would be the icing on cake!

  8. Jack says:

    Pure Michigan……. Winter WE- Wonder – Land !!!! ;)

  9. Lions suck! BY BY Jimmy Schwartz.

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      Dunno what else the Lions can try anymore these day. I guess they love losing. lol

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Unbelievable, I almost hope they lose out, so they can get some good draft picks. Maybe they can draft a new coach. Yes, time to go Schwartz!

    3. dano (Norton Shores) says:

      When Barry Sanders retired as a player, I retired as a fan. Until new ownership they will never change. Calvin Johnson’s talent is a waste with the Lions, just like Barry Sanders.

      Go Niners!!

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yup, we’ll get to watch some quality teams play tonight.

        Go Pats!!

      2. So true. I have been a Giants fan and just about anyother team than the lions. Why should they get another good draft pick, so they can waste that guys carrier.

      3. dano (Norton Shores) says:

        Good teams have good coaching and ownership that knows what they are doing. If you have a bad player, you cut him. If you have a bad coach, you fire him. A bad GM, you fire him. What can you do when you have bad ownership? Don’t support the team. Unfortunately, hard core fans can be delusional. Life’s too short to be a Lions fan.

        I will support the Ford’s making automobiles and trucks, but they just don’t know how to operate an NFL team. How many years do they need?

    4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The Lions are the second WORST team in the history of professional sports! Horrible ownership, horrible coaches and a graveyard for QB’s. The only pro sports team that is worse is than the Lions are the Chicago Cubs and it is a close call!

  10. INDY says:

    Snow Storm Friday Get Your Bill’s Blogg Shirt Ready!!!! INDYY…

  11. INDY says:

    Snow Storm is Coming Friday Get Bill’s Blogg Shirt On Now!! INDYY..

  12. INDY says:

    SNOW STORM FRIDAY!! BILL’S BLOGG WILL BE ROLLING OUT FAT THOUGHTS!!! INDYY..

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      INDY !!! ARE YOU REEEAAADDY ??!!!

      1. Jack says:

        Yes, He is Redddy !! He Told Me Sooooooo… Right Indy ???? CUE : http://www.michaelspornanimation.com/splog/wp-content/j/ruff.jpg

        1. INDY says:

          YES I AM!! INDYY,,

  13. By the way if we have a big snow storm this week,who gives a Blank about the lions. Rather watch it snow than watch the kitty cats.

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      +1

  14. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    INNDY R U READY!!!!!?????

  15. INDY says:

    Clint,Jeff U guys will be rolling the blogg a INDY will be snowing it!!IAM READY!!INDYY..

  16. Gee! did everyone go to bed.

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      Everybody is anxiously awaiting the 00Z

      1. Yep, and will get excited around Tuesday if the models are still showing the storm.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        When does it arrive?

        1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

          00z run is complete at 1130

        2. Kevin(Rockford) says:

          the computers are crunching the numbers right now…working on the nam right now…another hour? Total guess.

        3. bnoppe(Albion) says:

          All the times are EST and approximate.

          GFS
          *00z = 11:30 PM
          *12z = 12:30 AM
          GEFS (GFS Ensembles)
          *00z = 12:45 PM
          *12z = 12:45 AM
          NAM
          *00z = 9:30 PM
          *12z = 9:30 AM
          UKMET
          *00z = 2:00 AM
          *12z = 2:00 PM
          Canadian GGEM (sooner if you go directly to their sight)
          *00z = 2:00 AM
          *12z = 2:00 PM
          Canadian GGEM Ensembles
          *00z = 4:45 AM
          *12z = 4:45 PM
          ECMWF (sooner if you go directly to their sight)
          *00z = 3:20 AM
          *12z = 3:20 PM
          NOGAPS
          *00z = 2:00 AM
          *12z = 2:00 PM
          DGEX
          *00z = 5:15 AM
          *12z = 5:15 PM
          JMA
          *00z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 AM
          *12z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 PM

  17. INDY says:

    DDDD DDDDD DDDDDD WINTER STORM COMING DDDD DDDDD DDDDD!!!! INDYY..

    1. Jack says:

      DDDDDDDDDD ???? DDDDDDDDddd…. SPIN INDDDDDDDDDDDY : The Five Americans – “Western Union” (1967) – YouTube
      ► 2:30► 2:30
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EFpsmDDXLg
      Jan 17, 2011 – Uploaded by TheBacmaster
      Five Americans was a 1960s American band, most famous for the song “Western Union …

      1. Skot says:

        DDDDDDdDdd ddddd ddddd dd……for anywhere but Michigan guys!!!!

  18. Brian(Grandville) says:

    bnoppe, thanks for the listings. Just looked at the new OZ NAM, looks very WET. Maybe that will change.

  19. storm waning says:

    Excerpt from the WOOD TV8 forecast as of 12/16/12. With reminders

    A POTENTIALLY powerful low pressure system winds up this week, ejects from the Rocky Mountains and moves into the Great Lakes Thursday. Our storm system HAS YET to be analyzed by the United States’ network of weather balloons, so a great picture of the storm HASN’T been taken. This IS IMPORTANT because storm forecast accuracy increases dramatically once we’ve sampled the vertical characteristics of the low.

    iF things play out the way forecast models indicate they will, strong winds, mild weather and rain are all likely Thursday. Those very strong winds will bring in much colder air by early Thursday evening changing the rain to snow. The European computer model (ECMWF) has been most consistent with this weather feature and it suggests both synoptic (storm system) snow accumulation followed by lake effect snow accumulation. If models are correct, we are looking at a healthy dumping of snow. That said, a CAUTIOUS approach to snow forecasting IS NEEDED as described above

    Reminder….. Potential, cautious, hasn’t been, etc

    Boils down to….. Still too early, if this fizzles, WOOD has WARNED you. BE CAUTIOUS!!!!

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Yup, I hope many aren’t setting themselves up for yet another disappointment. I won’t get excited or anything until Wednesday evening.

      1. storm waning says:

        Sad to say, many are set in their words “Ready…….to Rock and Roll”. If that ranges from cold rain turning into a paltry three inches of slush to a healthy ten inch snowfall, then yes. I guess that it’s “Rock and Roll”. In my book, six inches plus of cold dry powder is rock and roll. Time will tell.

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      The NAM is never right is what I thought I’ve heard before is that true? If it is then it looks likely for you guys to receive a big huge winter storm!

    2. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      Looks like the 18z had the low about the same spot, the 00 added moisture

    3. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      Still waiting for the other models to show a trend if Canadian and GFS both still have this storm going west of us then we may have to realize that the Euro may be in outlier or this model very much could be to early to get down and to early to start the hype party,,,,

      And I’m glad Bill hasn’t started this storms own post yet

      1. Can slides low east and dumps a lot of snow

        1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

          When is the next run of the RDM?

      2. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        Link?

  20. storm waning says:

    As said by WOOD as of 12/16/12

    “Cold weather will stay with us through Christmas”

    Bit bold Define”cold”?

    They didn’t say will be white.

  21. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Basically this storm could end up anywhere from Toledo to Minneapolis.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      none of the model runs overnight will be sampled by the US network of weather balloons so there is really no sense of getting upset or excited either way…

      I’m looking forward to the morning discussion TMW but I’m really looking forward to the afternoon discussion the storm system should be well sampled and we should have a great idea on the general direction this thing is heading

    2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      none of the model runs overnight will be sampled by the US network of weather balloons so there is really no sense of getting upset or excited either way…

      I’m looking forward to the morning discussion TMW but I’m really looking forward to the afternoon discussion the storm system should be well sampled and we should have a great idea on the general direction this thing is heading j

  22. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en

    Hay gang and bill here’s a link to a great site were you can see 7 different models check it out!

  23. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Interesting following twitter. People in Minnesota are hyped up since the 00Z NAM is blasting them with the snowstorm. We say it is an outlier…they say it is onto something.

  24. INDY says:

    Friday We could have blizzard conditions in West Michigan Thee BIG DADDY hat is out time to put the kids to bed and start tracking a major storm system coming to the Great Lakes !!! Blowing heavy snow now is a good bet for Friday afternoon don’t forget winter driving skills roads are going to become snow coverd with blowing snow Friday afternoon ..The sprites the lights and the food are on my list we maybe snowed in for xmass!! GET TO THE STORE NOW!! stay tuned with Bill’s best as the track of this BIG mac comes are way!! INDYY..

    1. Skot says:

      INDY…You are so full of Sprites it ain’t funny. LOLololo

  25. Bnoppe says:

    00z will have a diffrent story ESP if it contiues to trend south

  26. PAUL says:

    West Michigan is over due for a all out blizzard.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      And I am over due to win the lottery.
      SlimJim

    2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      it’s been since the groundhogs day blizzard man that thing was bad

  27. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    Not excited for anything yet. I’ll be really surprised if we see anything more than a cold rain, with a couple inched of wrap around snow..
    Seems like people are starting to not talk as much about the cold air after and a big lake effect event following this storm, probably because its not gonna happen.

  28. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    As usual its still way to early to count your chickens until the eggs are laid. I will not be too convinced one way or the other until the system is at least in the 4 corners area and not even then will we know for sure until it tracks more toward us. The only thing we can say at this time is there is a potential of a storm in the Great Lakes area, but it may just be rain (for the most part) in our area.
    SlimJim

  29. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    GFS, why do you hate us so?

  30. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    Well the GFS didnt move at all. Lets see what the Euro does.

  31. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Well this run of the GFS shows almost the same thing as the last, maybe a little more in the way of backside L.E, Now if Euro sticks with it’s track then we have learned NOTHING!

  32. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    00Z GFS now loading. Compared to the 18Z, it has shifted very slightly NW with the low pressure. Not the trend we want if we want a snowstorm. It still is not nearly as far west as the NAM. Even with this run, the system is very powerful, and would have some snow on the backside along with strong winds. Pressure on this run was down to 984mb..as opposed to 980mb.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      A slight shift maybe a nudge but the Euro is the big ?

  33. arcturus says:

    Trends are persistent. I’ll go with mostly rain plus a snow dusting.

  34. Bnoppe says:

    Something has to give either Euro starts to shift NW or Once NAM and GFS are sampled by the Network they trend se

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      Can you give a quick explanation to the sampled by the network?…never heard that before

      1. Bnoppe says:

        Ya sure. This is from WOOD A POTENTIALLY powerful low pressure system winds up this week, ejects from the Rocky Mountains and moves into the Great Lakes Thursday. Our storm system HAS YET to be analyzed by the United States’ network of weather balloons, so a great picture of the storm HASN’T been taken. This IS IMPORTANT because storm forecast accuracy increases dramatically once we’ve sampled the vertical characteristics of the low.

  35. Sprites says:

    I still have a good feeling the low ends up over Detroit. I have so much more faith in the Euro.

  36. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Well I’ll put my input in on what I think tomorrow, but I will say we could very well have a very large storm coming in on Thursday into Friday!!!

    1. Skot says:

      This is EXACTLY WHY forecast models should be banned.

      1. Jack says:

        Now… Skot.. Don’t be such Ahhhh …. KILL- JOY !!! ;-)

    1. Jack says:

      LOL…Skot…Good 1 !!! ;-)

  37. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    I hate to say it, but I have a feeling we’re going to end up in the 50′s with rain and a very marginal amount (if any) of snow… I don’t know. Just not feeling this for some reason.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Me too, Harry. I have a sad feeling that something like the GFS shows is going to happen. The warmth of Lake Michigan is going to attract that low pressure like a magnet. Plus, it’s been the trend….

  38. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    The Euro is still holding its ground for mostly snow here..

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I can’t find the model map. What did this run show in terms of amounts?

      1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

        The map that actually shows snowfall for it is premium only.

  39. 00z EURO was northwest of its previous run, not good, will watch with great interest the next 2 as they come into the network.

  40. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

    .LONG TERM…(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
    ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON DEC 17 2012

    FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS SQUARELY ON A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE LAST NIGHT…THE GFS HAS SHIFTED
    NORTHWEST AND WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES ON A
    MORE SOUTHERLY PATH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE ECMWF HAS NOT
    VARIED MUCH AT ALL IN THE PAST 3 DAYS ON PATH OR STRENGTH AND HAS
    REMAINED ZEROED IN ON A TRACK FROM ST. LOUIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO
    LAKE HURON. GIVEN THE ECMWF HAS HAD A BETTER TRACK RECORD AT RANGE
    INTO THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME AND IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
    MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD AND TREND THE FORECAST
    IN ITS DIRECTION. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
    THE MID/LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS STILL 1000 MILES OFF THE WEST COAST AND
    HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE CONUS UPPER AIR NETWORK.

    LENDING CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF AS WELL IS THE FACT THAT THE PATTERN
    IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS LOWS
    AFFECTING OUR AREA. INSTEAD OF A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WHICH IS
    TYPICAL…THE PATTERN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WOULD LEND
    ITSELF TO A FLATTER TRAJECTORY INTO OUR REGION.

    IN FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
    SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN…ESPECIALLY NORTH
    OF A HOLLAND TO ALMA LINE. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW
    WOULD BE NORTH OF A WHITEHALL TO MT. PLEASANT LINE. PRECIPITATION
    WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN
    SOUTH…WITH SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. PRECIPITATION WILL
    CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHERE THE TYPE MAY REMAIN ALL
    SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. TOO WARM IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE LOW
    TRACK…SO THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN THERE.

    COLDER AIR AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST
    AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
    THE NORTH AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO
    EAST. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN ALL AREAS.

    DELTA T/S INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER LAKE
    MICHIGAN WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE VERY STRONG
    WINDS IN THE CLOUD LAYER. ENVISION A LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR
    LAKESHORE AREAS.

    LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
    NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY AND INSTABILITY DECREASES
    WITH MODERATING 850MB TEMPS.

    THE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CUTS
    OFF SOMEWHAT OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND…PER THE ECMWF. THIS
    WOULD SPELL NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING
    ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN.

    BOTTOM LINE…FOCUS REMAINS ON THE MID/LATE WEEK WINTER STORM.
    POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
    AREA…FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. PLENTY OF TIME TO
    WATCH THE SYSTEM DEVELOP YET AS IT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      A shift of about 50 miles more southward and we are golden.
      Team Euro!

  41. Irish coffee says:

    I wouldn’t get too worked up one way or the other until late Tue/ early Wed– at the EARLiest! Way to much time/space for changes in track to start waffling w/ every run/solution….wraparound LES still our best opportunity in quite some time..

  42. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    What will be will be we can’t control what happens with this, sure if it doesn’t happen it will be a let down once again for the snow lovers, if it does have had it snow lovers it’s your time to shine and have fun!

  43. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I still think it might be to early to say anything yet, so I will wait until early to late afternoon to comment. But if this storm comes in the way the Euro is saying parts of West Michigan could be in for some major snow accumulations….

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