Snow Thurs. night/Friday

December 17th, 2012 at 4:39 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   We’ll get rain Weds. night and Thurs., then snow Thurs. night with snow showers on Friday.  The overnight NAM (caribou) gives G.R. 0.08″ of mixed (mostly rain) precipitation between 7 PM and 3 AM Tues. night.  Then rain starts around midnight Weds. night.  We get about 3/4″ of rain on Thurs. before it goes over to snow and we get about 2″ of snow in G.R. (4″ north of Muskegon).  The GFS gives G.R. a whopping 1.6″ of mostly rain, including 0.63″ in 3 hours Thurs. afternoon.  That ends with 1-2″ of snow Thurs. night.  It’ll be in the upper 30s this afternoon and the mid 40s briefly on Weds. (cooler NW of G.R.).  After Thurs., the GFS doesn’t give us a high temperature warmer than the mid 30′s until January!  It also has another storm around Dec. 26-28 with a combination of snow and rain (but enough snow for accumulations).   The European model gives G.R. about 1/2″ of snow Tues. night, then 0.96″ of precipitation from Weds. evening thru Friday AM with about 1-2″ of snow Thurs. night.  The wind will be really ramping up Thurs. night into at least midday Friday with gusts of 40-50 mph – esp., near Lake Mich.  Travel will get difficult Thursday night (be home early) as we hit freezing and the snow starts to accumulate on the roads.

The farther northwest and north you live, the more snow you will get.  The overnight run of the GFS model has a foot of snow for Madison, Wisconsin (link only shows snow thru Thursday evening – we’d get more lake effect snow over the weekend).  We’d get mostly rain here in G.R. and to the southeast during the day Thursday, with the rain going over to snow as the cold air comes in Thursday evening.  The European model is farther southeast and might give us more snow.  The pattern gets colder and snowier starting next Thurs. PM/Night.  We could be in for some tougher driving from Thursday night into Friday.   A White Christmas is still very much a possibility and the period from Christmas into the first week of Jan. looks pretty good for Michigan ski resorts.  Also…there’s a reason people don’t vacation in Siberia in the winter.   Cold weather in central Asia is causing some big problems.

623 Responses to “Snow Thurs. night/Friday”

  1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    The Nws in grr is going to issue a winter storm watch for the northern and western areas of the forecast area according to their 12 forecast update

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      That is what I like to hear!

  2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Well. Hopefully we get a white Christmas. (And it melts a day after)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Haha…no, please.

    2. Sue says:

      One can only hope that is how it happens. :)

  3. Jesse says:

    12Z GFS IS IN THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
    SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE STORM WILL BE HIGH WINDS
    AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW RATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
    AREA. EARLY THINKING IS TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THIS
    AFTERNOON FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
    FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHEN TO START THE WATCH. RIGHT NOW IT
    LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER IMPACTS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY
    EVENING.

  4. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    It’s beginning to look like if you live from Muskegon county northward you will be under a wsw sometime this afternoon

  5. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z GFS is giving me 1-2″. My guess is I won’t be in the winter storm watch.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Remember its gfs euro is the most reliable

  6. Sprites says:

    Not really buying the GFS snow maps. I don’t think they take the lake enhancement into any consideration. Jim, you very well could see 3-5″ of snow still. Especially if the Lake Effect is NNW on the backside. Saugatuck would get some good snow from that.

    1. Jim S says:

      Yes…depends on how much nnw winds are

  7. Sprites says:

    Also, looks like some areas might see an inch or two of snow this evening! Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for 1-3″ of snow in the Milwaukee area.

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      I hope not. Sounds like a mess with mid 40′s and a half inch of rain coming. Let it snow after that.

  8. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Blizzard Watches out in the central US. That is always fun to see.

  9. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    I still think areas north of Route 10 will experience the highest accumulations.

    As for the rest of us, it will RAIN. But being where we are in this system, it’s going to rain no matter what until it occludes (colder air literally rushing in from the NW which will turn the rain to snow and cold within an hour or so) From that point on, we will see snow and it could be heavy at times.

    As far as accumulations… less the further south you are, more north. At this time I believe the accumulations will look like this;

    - The Michigan/Indiana border will likely see 1-2″.

    - I-94 corridor 2-4″, 4″ toward the lake due to lake enhancement (there could be 5-6″ amounts somewhere over there)

    - I-96 should see 3-6″, highest again near the lake.

    - North of I-96, 4-8″.

    Also, found an interesting link with graphs that show each model, temperature, humidity, dewpoint, snowfall… etc. It’s very similar to the “Hourly Weather Graph” the NWS uses, but it’s nice because it shows each model and it’s forecast. Makes it easy to dissect and analyze each model and their specific forecasts. If you know your local airport code such as Grand Rapids being kgrr, Battle Creek being kbtl and Kalamazoo being kazo, etc… you can search them and it will give you that area specific data.

    That link is here —> http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgrr&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

    1. If the Euro is at or south of the last run then I will buy into the GFS which shows arund 6 inches here in Gratiot county “some lake huron lake effect for Bay, Midland, Gratiot Saginaw counties will add an 1 or maybe 2 on the backside. have my bag of “I’m Good” old fashion licorice and diet coke, waiting for the Euro before updating my website, already working on it for a 4:00 storm update for our farmers but can’t do much else until I see the Euro first.

  10. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I would have to guess that when the 4pm discussion update comes out is when they will issue the wsw

    1. Yep, waiting for Euro I’m guessing, were in a tough spot to forecast

  11. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    I like everyones CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTIONS!! lol, where i Live i will see very LITTLE Snow,the good ole DRY SLOT!!

  12. Bnoppe says:

    I’ll take 2-4 at This point I’m just Tierd of seeing this grass

    1. Jeff(Northern Ionia County / Muir) says:

      Agreed, even a little snow would make Christmas look better

  13. There is a nice Mesolow over Lake Huron right now! Check out the visible satellite loop! http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=Michigan-vis-24

    1. jesse says:

      That’s pretty neat! Awesome link

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Nice!

    3. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Love me some mesolows!

  14. Euro is loading now with 12hr over west central IL,

  15. waiting for next frame but I’m already not liking it’s position but will wait for the next frames to update

  16. I still like the GFS solution for this storm. The NAM is beginning to come in line with the GFS as well.

  17. OK, no shift north, Low goes from Between Lansing and Jackson to Port Huron, Winter Storm Watches could be From Montcalm, Gratiot N.W. or perhaps next row north and points northwest. Not thinking Clinton or Ionia but who knows. Looks like along US10 north looks like a lot of heavy snow with 4-6 down to M46 or M57

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      And muskegon county north as well basically north of 96

  18. John (Holland) says:

    I love following the data stream that you all provide, but you’re a bit out of my league, haha. Can someone offer a brief synopsis of what the current models are predicting for the Holland/Zeeland/Ottawa County area? Thanks!

    1. jesse says:

      It’s really up in the air John! I’m from Hudsonville and we are really in an area of uncertainty. The current track of the low would usher in the cold air on the back side of the low a little sooner for our area however we may not be quite far enough north to tap into the moisture that the system provides before the transition to snow. Keep and eye on the position of the low pressure because if it trends further southeast lets say closer to the indiana michigan border then we will have a faster transition to snow and higher accumulations.

  19. Jim S says:

    Tom skilling shows g.r. with about 3″, traverse city with about 16″ using their rpm model.

    1. Jim S says:

      It showed rain, followed by the dry slot, then wrap around snow.

      1. Yup (Grandville) says:

        Remember how much the dry slot got West Michigan last winter? ALL THE TIME. I’m not holding my breath for this season either :)

    2. shows how big 50 or 60 miles difference in the track could make

  20. Mick says:

    Link to that Skilling graphic?

  21. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Fresh thread people!

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