Snow Thurs. night/Friday

December 17th, 2012 at 4:39 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   We’ll get rain Weds. night and Thurs., then snow Thurs. night with snow showers on Friday.  The overnight NAM (caribou) gives G.R. 0.08″ of mixed (mostly rain) precipitation between 7 PM and 3 AM Tues. night.  Then rain starts around midnight Weds. night.  We get about 3/4″ of rain on Thurs. before it goes over to snow and we get about 2″ of snow in G.R. (4″ north of Muskegon).  The GFS gives G.R. a whopping 1.6″ of mostly rain, including 0.63″ in 3 hours Thurs. afternoon.  That ends with 1-2″ of snow Thurs. night.  It’ll be in the upper 30s this afternoon and the mid 40s briefly on Weds. (cooler NW of G.R.).  After Thurs., the GFS doesn’t give us a high temperature warmer than the mid 30′s until January!  It also has another storm around Dec. 26-28 with a combination of snow and rain (but enough snow for accumulations).   The European model gives G.R. about 1/2″ of snow Tues. night, then 0.96″ of precipitation from Weds. evening thru Friday AM with about 1-2″ of snow Thurs. night.  The wind will be really ramping up Thurs. night into at least midday Friday with gusts of 40-50 mph – esp., near Lake Mich.  Travel will get difficult Thursday night (be home early) as we hit freezing and the snow starts to accumulate on the roads.

The farther northwest and north you live, the more snow you will get.  The overnight run of the GFS model has a foot of snow for Madison, Wisconsin (link only shows snow thru Thursday evening – we’d get more lake effect snow over the weekend).  We’d get mostly rain here in G.R. and to the southeast during the day Thursday, with the rain going over to snow as the cold air comes in Thursday evening.  The European model is farther southeast and might give us more snow.  The pattern gets colder and snowier starting next Thurs. PM/Night.  We could be in for some tougher driving from Thursday night into Friday.   A White Christmas is still very much a possibility and the period from Christmas into the first week of Jan. looks pretty good for Michigan ski resorts.  Also…there’s a reason people don’t vacation in Siberia in the winter.   Cold weather in central Asia is causing some big problems.

623 Responses to “Snow Thurs. night/Friday”

  1. Well I am just going to keep my lawn mower gased up, because this winter is going to be a bust. I am not counting on any of the forecast of cold and snow as stated above. It just has not happend in the past weeks or months,It looks to be green or should I say brown.

  2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Oh my, TWC may be exactly right with this one. The horror…….

    Oh well, we really need some precipitation, even if it’s just rain.

  3. Storm waning says:

    Here’s the forecast….l. Why has Bill remained cool and calm, and many of you predicting a big storm? Is Bill wrong? I doubt it.

    A major storm heads our way from Thursday into Friday. RAIN (or possibly a mix at the very start) will develop Wednesday night, and will continue through the day on Thursday. This will be a very windy storm, WITH WIND AND RAIN BECOMING THE BIG STORY on Thursday. In addition to wind gusts over 40 mph, we could see 1/2 to 1″ of RAIN on Thursday.

    The RAIN will change to snow late Thursday, with roads becoming very slippery for Thursday night into Friday. Winds will continue to intensify Thursday night through midday Friday with gusts up to 50 mph possible, especially at Lake Michigan. The wind will cause SOME drifting snow and roads will stay slippery through Friday night. FLURRIES and snow showers are still possible Saturday, especially west of US 131. Temperatures will stay on the chilly side into early next week.

    The weather looks cool and relatively QUIET for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a CHANCE of a few flurries or snow showers. Travel on the 24th and 25th should be OK.

  4. Storm waning says:

    And oh my…… The 8 day calls for a high of 35 on Christmas Snow tends to melt at 32

    1. Mike says:

      With the ground being this warm snow will melt from below weather the temp is below freezing or not.

    2. jesse says:

      ya, yesterday it was calling for a high of 26 on christmas….. 9 degree change in about 10 hours

  5. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    This is exactly why I am and will remain neutral but still preparing as if something would happen since things can change in a blink of an eye. Again long range models past 4 days are no good as the trend continues and still 4 days is questionable since things can change up to the very moment. Oh well, it is what it is.

  6. harborskier says:

    So what do you see for Harbor Springs. I really have my fingers crossed for this one. Our economy really depends on snow up here. It’s been 3 years now that we moved up here and I still read your blog everyday. Thanks

  7. Barry in Zeeland says:

    1 or 2 inches of snow with 40 mph winds? I think most of the ground will be totally bare with that kind of wind blowing any snow we get away. Lot’s of premature blog hype again the past several days.

    1. Storm waning says:

      Hype fuels the wheels on this Blog Train.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I don’t think Bill or his crew has hyped this over the past couple of days. They simply stated it was something to keep an eye on. That is exactly what the rest of us have done. We have been speculating on the track, getting excited and disappointed based off of each run. Almost like a sport, rooting on your “team”.

      You can be judgmental and put others down for enjoying the excitement, or “hype” as you call it…as for many of us, I think we will continue checking up on updates and enjoying the show.

      1. Rumrunner says:

        He’s talking about the bloggers. Not Bill. Relax.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          I wasn’t uptight about Bill. Travis, Barry, and a few others sometimes make comments on here that are somewhat pompous…and I tend to be a defender. Thanks for the head’s up though.

        2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Matt, based on your comments lately, you seem to get mad at anyone who implies anything less than a blizzard. Lighten up! We’re all on the same page.

        3. INDY says:

          HAHAHHA this is a weather blogg anybody work anymore??? Please don’t get mad get glad!!! INDYY

        4. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          I didn’t even realize I was coming across that way. Thanks for the head’s up.

  8. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    The NAM this morning is looking great, guys. Check it out…

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    The GFS also has a path that looks better…except is doing something funky, showing it warm near the lake, so hopefully that changes during today..

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    Bill based his forecast off of the overnight models. The ones I posted are from this morning.

      1. INDY says:

        And it will right over Ohio !!!! INDYY..

      2. Kind of like the old Lite Beer commerical From Miller
        “All We Need Is One Pin, Rodney”

  9. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Looks like this will be the third Christmas in a row with no snow. We still can’t break the pattern. WOW!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Brian, this morning’s models are looking much better. The GFS is struggling with giving us enough cold air, but it is getting there.

      http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR

      http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=GRR

  10. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Predicting the outcome of this storm is really something. I would have thought a more southerly track of the low, which the models are honing in on, would have been better for my chances for snow…however, because of this, there is less lake enhancement on the back side of the low, as the coldest air actually gets pulled further south with the tight circulation. Where the models had the low yesterday, there seemed to be more wrap around snow. Still a couple days out, keep moving south. I’d prefer to get hit with synoptic as opposed to hoping for some lake effect.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I agree! Synoptic won’t compact to one inch after a day…

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      …and what you said now makes sense. Since the GFS moved the low farther south, IN gets the wrap around instead of us.

  11. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    In the meanwhile, we MAY get a little pre-show snowfall of an inch or less this evening from that band in MN/IA.

    http://www.weather.gov/Radar

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Watching this band on radar as it heads east across the country may give us an idea of how far north the low can get tomorrow evening/Thursday.

    2. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Wait for it…. dry slot! :) LOL! That would just be perfect…..

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Lol

  12. kevin. w says:

    I still think a south Chicago to around Toledo line for storm track. But going with what Cort said that the air above 2k ft threshold will be just warm enough for from about the Alma/Mt. Pleasant line. BUT a very rapid flash freeze and quick transition to heavy wind whipped snows and blowing/drifting. It looks cold for a while now and plus winter really doesn’t start til the 21st and its looking more wintery now for a good while…….Welcome winter.

  13. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    41 today, 43 tomorrow. 5 days ago WOOD was forecasting 34 for today and 35 tomorrow. Hence, I still don’t believe many models out more than 3 days.

    NWS GRR is now mentioning the possibility of thunderstorms in Michigan on Thursday. Interesting. Then, it looks like an inch or two after the cold front moves through.

    Zzzzzz

  14. Jeff(NorthIoni) says:

    What time do you guys think the temp will take a down turn Thurs? I have some travel plans and would like to avoid the high ways at this time. Thanks Jeff

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      NWS says all rain for everyone Thursday until sometime Thursday afternoon when it starts to transition

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        All rain for the southeastern half of the area. Rain or snow north of a Grand Haven to Alma line…

      2. INDY says:

        Hey Travis is Oxford east or west of Grand Rapids??? INDYYY..

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          Indy looks like Oxford is on the east side of the state.

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford,_Michigan

          SlimJim

        2. INDY says:

          thank u slim!!! INDYY

      3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        For the time I would think its best to push everthing back to a later time.
        SlimJim

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Pretty much just as everybody else is leaving in the late afternoon/early evening…

  15. INDY says:

    U know if did not have the hype on Bill’s blogg we would not have over 500 post u can sure tell Fizzers 33 other names on Bills blogg waht a shame!! Again winter storm BIG mac is about to attack on West Michigan get your shovels out !!!! INDYY…..

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Don’t let us down, INDY!

  16. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    A cloudy cool 30° here this AM. Also a good bit of frost on the roofs and cars. Now as for the big rain/snow system coming up. I think I have stated all along that there is a higher chance that the GR area would be mostly rain and it still looks that way today. There could be some snow on the back side of the system. And as for timing I would look for a slower time then what some are looking at now. So bottom like is for GR the chances of a white Christmas are a little better then they looked last week, but still not guaranteed. I think the chances of a white New Years look good. But I will not be here then as we will be in Florida at that time.
    SlimJim

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      You’ve been taking a lot of grief from the snow lovers, but it looks like you’re level-headedness has been spot on! We’ll see how the last day and a half plays out.

  17. INDY says:

    INDY’S WITER STORM LIST!!
    1. SPRITES 2.FLASHLIGHTS 3. WEATHER RADIO 4.ICE 5.3 DOZEN EGGS 4. 50 PDS OF DOG FOOD 5.2 CARTONS OF REDS AND NUMBER 6. BILL’S BEST!!! INDY IS READY!!!

  18. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    My hype level after seeing the GFS shift the low further SE last night was high…until I saw it was still mostly rain for us. That might be the nail in the coffin …but we’ll see what the next run shows.

    1. 12z will be D Day but will we be the americans=snow or the germans=rain lol a good day to watch band of brothers or otherwords members of Bill’s Blog, I know nothing lol

      1. INDY says:

        lololololo MARK IS READY…INDYY..

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      06 was a continued step in the right direction!

  19. INDY says:

    6-10 INCHES OF SNOW COMING WITH BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS 4 WEST MICHIGAN!!! STAY TUNED INDYY…

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      One can only hope, but I find the RDB model to be a bit ore accurate… :P

    1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      That infographic is really cool. Whoever put that together did a really nice job; it explained their ideas well.

      1. INDY says:

        Tom Skilling He’s thee man!! INDYY

  20. Sprites says:

    Well, as of now looks like everyone Holland- Lansing north gets 2-4″ of snow with some huge wind gusts. I guess thats a good start. I would have loved a huge storm, but I will take even a few inches at this point! I know it still has plenty of time to shift south! Also, I think I have potential to get a couple more inches on Friday from Lake Effect. All in all, some areas might end up with 5 or 6 inches of snow.

    1. INDY says:

      Love the name!! I drink a lot of them lolololo!!! INDYY

  21. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    I would think that ever one would know this…but will bring it up anyway.
    No matter where the models put the tract the out come depends on where the system actually goes. In my past experience the systems early in the season have a tendency to trend to the NW more often then to the SE. Were will this one go??? We should know for sure by Friday LOL
    SlimJim

  22. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    This Month of December is Shaping up better than last year!! Last December i had about a total foot of Snow on the Ground before it all melted. This Year a Can’t even recall when i went all the way to Christmas with only a trace amount of Snow so far where i live!!!! OH BUT THE COLD IS COMING, YEA RIGHT!!!I GIVE UP WATCHING THE WEATHER FORECASTS, THEY NEVER GET IT RIGHT!!!!…….. STILL LOOKING AT GREEN GRASS!!!!!

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      I’ve been wondering about the comparisons myself. Everyone said last December was the worst, but it’s looking like less snow and maybe more mild this December? I’d have to go back and look.

  23. KevinS (Saugatuck) says:

    So a bunch of cold rain, with maybe 3 inches after….? What’s all the excitement about?

    1. INDY says:

      U tell us!!!! This is a weather Blogg Bill will tell u this great excitement!! Go watch cart-toons!! maybe PBS??? INDYY..

    2. John (Holland) says:

      3 inches is about 10 times the amount of snow we’ve seen at any one time this winter so far. That’s pretty exciting.

    3. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      It’s exciting because it’s a big storm front with lots of precip and wind. Even possible thunderstorms!

      The potential is there. It’s just how much becomes rain.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        …or becomes snow….. ;P

  24. Bnoppe says:

    I’m still thinking the entire CWA goes under a watch by this afternoon and eventully, then all expect maybe the northern most tier of counties goes into winter weather advisory mainly because there’s the chance of a flash Frezze and its the first snowfall of the year

  25. Bnoppe says:

    12z up and running fate Tbd in an 1 hr

  26. Jeff(Northern Ionia County / Muir) says:

    Im not likeing all this rain talk, needs to be pure cold and snow, I cant wait for the lakes to freeze over.

  27. PAUL says:

    The Storm will follow the European model.The THE model has been way off all
    Year.The storm will come thru southern Oklahoma to southern Missiouri thru Indianapolis to Toledo line.
    South Haven to Lansing to Flint north will get Blasted.with jct snow.

    1. Bnoppe says:

      The Overnight Euro had it going further NW then the gfs

    2. INDY says:

      PAUL KNOWS THEE GOOD STUFF WILL BE RUFF AND ITS COMING!!! INDYY

  28. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    2-4 inches from a line Holland to Alma to the north and then a line from Muskegon to Mt Pleasant 6-10 inches and some spots in between there will see some 6 inch totals!!! Just my thoughts what about everyone else? R U READY INDYY?

    1. INDY says:

      HAHHAAH U KNOW INDYy is on thee go about this one I am glad Bill’s blogg is rolling about a storm coming!!! Just pureee funnn from the radio cranked to the Goo Goo Dolls to thee sprite drinking cows!!!! INDYY IS READY!!!!

    2. I buy that Clint, reguardless everyone should get enough snow to say they had a white christmas, and some lucky ones will get a whole lot more….

  29. PAUL says:

    Winter Storm Watch will be issued from South Haven To Lansing line and points north
    By Wednesday Morning…..

  30. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    It’s funny to watch all you guys fight over what is going to happen why not just wait until tomorrow afternoon or Thursday morning to know more?

  31. 04 GTO (gaines 68th & Kzoo) says:

    12utc looks like rain for me…

  32. 04 GTO (gaines 68th & Kzoo) says:

    not look good need the low to shift 100 miles east

  33. Bnoppe says:

    12z is looking like more of the same, it does appear to be more tightly wound so maybe a faster change over

  34. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I think all the kids will care about Friday is getting that snow day because of the flash freeze lol

  35. Well the 12z GFS is southeast of the 00z & 06z runs

  36. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    The hpc shows at least a 70% chance of getting at least 4″ of snow on day 3 north of Muskegon

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

  37. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    For my area, I almost wish the low would have stayed further north…..then the wind direction would have been west/northwest which would have meant more lake enhancement. With the further south track, the wind will be more north/northwest. The last couple runs of the models have taken me from the 2-6″ range to the 0-2″ range. Can’t win either way.

  38. In a few hours the all important Euro will give us a much better picture and thats when the watches will be issued for Michigan locations. Good news is the GFS didn’t shift north but rather south so will see what happens later…

    1. 04 GTO (gaines 68th & Kzoo) says:

      when will the Euro pop out??

      1. about 2:30 it will start rolling in, give or take

  39. NWS to issue Winter Storm Watches this afernoon for western and northern areas, most likely from Muskegon to Mt Pleasant and points northwest

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      That would make sense.

  40. PAUL says:

    GFS by tommorow will following the European model.

    1. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      European is now the furthest west of the models.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Haha…true. But it was just one model run, and there is no 06 EURO.

  41. arcturus says:

    Said it before and I’ll say it again … stick with what’s been the pattern. Weather is persistent. Warmer than normal. Mostly rain.

    1. your prob right, but we’ve missed storms that had a bulleye on us then shift 100 miles southeast of us, so we follow and hope just in case, either way it’s a storm rain or snow it beats boring weather and we need the moisture and because it’s near christmas we root a bit more for snow.

    2. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Thanks for reminding us. Again.

  42. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Agreed Mark!!!

  43. Like how weatherbell posts 3 videos, 4 writes ups when there is a so so storm out east, then when a possible blizzard hits the midwest it’s ho hum… thats the only thing bad about paying money for their service, it’s really geared for the east coast, but again I knew that before I subscribed, it’s the model info that is really good that keeps me staying.

  44. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I just noticed that they have put up Winter Storm Watches up for northern Illinois just to the west of Chicago. Very interesting!!

  45. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I’m betting by 6pm we will have a WSW in effect from Muskegon county to the north!!

  46. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Milwaukee Nws just issued a wwa for this evening for that snow across the lake

    1. funny how that little system has held up well

  47. NWS already has talked about that and will issue them this afternoon, I’m thinking they to want to injest the 12z Euro first, I would to if I was them, its a great model

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      Lets get through this one first! :)

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