Snow Thurs. night/FridayDecember 17th, 2012 at 4:39 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
We’ll get rain Weds. night and Thurs., then snow Thurs. night with snow showers on Friday. The overnight NAM (caribou) gives G.R. 0.08″ of mixed (mostly rain) precipitation between 7 PM and 3 AM Tues. night. Then rain starts around midnight Weds. night. We get about 3/4″ of rain on Thurs. before it goes over to snow and we get about 2″ of snow in G.R. (4″ north of Muskegon). The GFS gives G.R. a whopping 1.6″ of mostly rain, including 0.63″ in 3 hours Thurs. afternoon. That ends with 1-2″ of snow Thurs. night. It’ll be in the upper 30s this afternoon and the mid 40s briefly on Weds. (cooler NW of G.R.). After Thurs., the GFS doesn’t give us a high temperature warmer than the mid 30′s until January! It also has another storm around Dec. 26-28 with a combination of snow and rain (but enough snow for accumulations). The European model gives G.R. about 1/2″ of snow Tues. night, then 0.96″ of precipitation from Weds. evening thru Friday AM with about 1-2″ of snow Thurs. night. The wind will be really ramping up Thurs. night into at least midday Friday with gusts of 40-50 mph – esp., near Lake Mich. Travel will get difficult Thursday night (be home early) as we hit freezing and the snow starts to accumulate on the roads.
The farther northwest and north you live, the more snow you will get. The overnight run of the GFS model has a foot of snow for Madison, Wisconsin (link only shows snow thru Thursday evening – we’d get more lake effect snow over the weekend). We’d get mostly rain here in G.R. and to the southeast during the day Thursday, with the rain going over to snow as the cold air comes in Thursday evening. The European model is farther southeast and might give us more snow. The pattern gets colder and snowier starting next Thurs. PM/Night. We could be in for some tougher driving from Thursday night into Friday. A White Christmas is still very much a possibility and the period from Christmas into the first week of Jan. looks pretty good for Michigan ski resorts. Also…there’s a reason people don’t vacation in Siberia in the winter. Cold weather in central Asia is causing some big problems.