Tues. Evening/Night Mix
December 18th, 2012 at 2:00 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
4 PM - Winter Storm Watch – more details coming. There will be Wind Advisories for everyone with the approaching storm and probably at least Winter Weather Advisories for the snow and slick roads. A light mix will develop and move through the area. With temperatures near or a little above freezing, main roads should just be wet even with some light snow falling. Be a little cautious of a slick spot on a lesser traveled road if the snow gets a little heavier for a brief time. However, precipitation amounts will be light. The NAM Caribou is highest at 0.15″ for G.R., the GFS has 0.12″ See below the links for the latest on the big Thurs./Fri. storm. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours and the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours. I work the 23rd, 24th, 25th and 31st. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast.
Rain Thursday, very windy with snow Thursday night, very windy with snow showers on Friday. Travel will be very difficult Thursday night and early Friday. The NAM caribou has the maximum wind at S. Haven going to 38 knots (43.7 mph) and 36 knots at Holland (41.4 mph). The NAM caribou forecast snow totals (these look a little high and the mix here is strange, but here they are for what it’s worth): 20.2″ Cadillac (Yikes!), 6.9″ Ludington, 5.9″ Kalamazoo, 5.2″ Pontiac (why more there?), 4.3″ Jackson, 4.0″ Lansing, 3.6″ G.R., 3.1″ Big Rapids, 2.8″ Muskegon, 1.6″ Mt. Pleasant, just a trace in S. Haven – I told you they looked weird. Three things to take from this. It’s going to get VERY windy, esp. at Lake Michigan Thursday night into midday Friday. Two, the rain will go over to snow and many areas will see accumulations (pretty much everybody. Three, it’s going to fall below freezing, so with the cold and the wind blowing the snow around, roads are going to get icy for Thurs. night and Friday – make your plans accordingly. This is going to be a major snowstorm for a large portion of Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Michigan. There’s also a chance of thunder as close as Chicago/S. Bend and severe storms are possible from S. Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM caribou prints out 0.86″ precipitation for the storm and 1.09″ for the European. The European would also give G.R. a good 2-3″ of snow Thurs. evening/night. The European gives Cadillac 1.48″ of total precipitation. 850mb temperatures during the precipitation are -2.3C down to -11C. IF…IF that’s all snow…that’s going to be over a foot of snow…at a 10-1 water to snow ratio…that’s 14.8″. With the strong wind..travel in that kind of storm would be extremely difficult (Thurs. night and Friday). Note the heavy snow (north of the 32 degree blue line) from near Kansas City to E. Iowa into Wisconsin to the highest elevations from Cadillac/Lake City to near Gaylord. Here’s the heavy snow band from Iowa to N. Michigan (look at the snow near Traverse City! Early January looking chilly. The hits just keep on comin’. Looks like we’re getting into a pattern of getting a storm about every 3-4 days…with mixed precipitation for most and the snow piling up in northern Michigan.
Ahhh…fresh thread smell
20 inches at cadillac? wow, just think where that could get dumped with say an 80 se swing,lol, just sayin
Yes, the thought did indeed cross my mind.
Well I’ll be home in Interlochen waiting for my 18-20 inches of snow lol. Just can’t see that happening. Would love it however. Bring it
anyone else see the bubble effect on the 84 hr pic over west michigan?
Within the next two hours I’m sure somewhere in west michigan probably north of 96 will be under a wsw so the hype will then begin for you guys lol good luck
Good call, Deb.
Anything that makes it white around west michigan for christmas will be a welcomed sight for most! Looks as if the long term brings more storm systems in our direction and keeps it cool around here. Good news for ice fishermen like myself! I can’t wait to get on the hard water.
Captain, I’m taking us to Hyper Chat, but I’m not sure how much more she can take!
Ludicrous speed, GO!! (Name that movie reference…)
Spaceballs!
Correct.
Wow our NWS down here has already issued a special weather statement for that storm around and after Christmas!
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ025&warncounty=OKC109&firewxzone=OKZ025&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
Bills link to the heavy snow band in northern Michigan has Grand Traverse country pegged for 20 to 25 inches of snow…. We did have a storm last march that put down 20 plus inches, maybe we can make it 2 years in a row. Bring on the Blizzard
Man, must be nice.
I just bought a home in Interlochen about 10 miles SW of Traverse City, I know I don’t fall into the Woodtv coverage area but Bill and the blog community here and fantastic resources for weather, they put 9and10 news up here to shame. I am praying for huge snow storms just like the rest of you in the winter, and I also wish for severe thunderstorms in the summer. Weather junkie for sure
9&10 was great back when Blizzard Bill was around
Welcome to the blog Mick!! I love the TC area, it is my favorite place ever.
I hear ya there. I pretty much live up north on the weekends in the summer. 9 & 10 News or 7 & 4 News and weather don’t compare at all to WoodTV down here when there is severe storms in the area.
ya you jerk!
Mick needs to “redistribute” the wealth of snow
Hey Mark, I lived in Vestaburg which is just outside of Gratiot country to your west in Montcalm County. I have went through many snow deprived winters there. Now that I am up north I feel like I have earned the 2ft+ snow storms!
I spent many a-days at bass lake growing up with my friend, we prob were there 25 days a summer
+1 don’t say it to loud, you might get some unwanted people on here to say some unwanted things!
i.e. not weather related…
new thread boys and girls c u there
Blizzard Bill have a few opps the mic was live moments that money can’t buy….
I’m mean oops as in a F bomb here or there
I think in about an hour you all will know who exactly will be under wsw and who won’t
Muskegon to Mt Pleasant I’m guessing, but perhaps south due to the threat of flash freeze, wind driven snow and near whiteout conditions even with a couple or few inches of snow, plus a big travel period might justify a watch to heighten awareness
I know that talking about this right now will bring some criticism however; the storm track is clearly pointing further in our direction and the GFS brings a huge low in out of the gulf around the day after christmas which would be a very moisture rich event for us! Whether or not it’s mostly rain, it looks promising.
Trace for South Haven means a trace for me. No fun.
Northern lower mi looks like it’s in the sweet spot.. Oh well, always next time. Traverse City gonna get nailed.
Yeah it looks like from us-10 north will be the most significant accumulations but ow oil don’t even be surprised if as far south as Muskegon get 4-6″
*I wouldn’t *
Yep, looking at at best a couple inches ..
In Ionia? Because Muskegon looks to get more than a couple inches at least 4″
Mick,
Here is Skillling’s graphic.
http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/FEATURE121820123.jpg
Yea Deb, i’m talking Ionia County .
Wrong post but ok just making sure as for people in Muskegon county would be disappointed lol!
lol
Wish Ionia Would get a few more inches but im thinking the same thing.
Hey thanks Dano, appreciate it.
Hope this all works out, Crystal Mountain Ski Area needs snow!!! Think Snow!!
I have a feeling that mother nature will do what she wants she has the finally word in all of this
that’s not a feeling, that’s just the simple obvious truth. I have a feeling we’ll get 2 inches but I’m hoping mother nature dumps much more snow!
Bill, how much lake effect should make its way into GR? Will it hit us?
Nathan it looks like 1-3″ on the back side of the system
Looks more and more what INDY has been blogging for since last week about our storm coming and going on a month now about our xmas storm!!!! Tell u all get your list check it 5 times and make sure your pets have water get out the chains …WHAT U GOING TO DO WHEN THE BLIZZARD COMES OVER U??? R U READY?? INDYY…
Let people say what they want, you had a pretty good record last winter with your crazy forecasts. At least from what I remember
Thank u!!! YUP get your coffee ready!! INDYY
Coffee and Scotch… I’ll be up checking the stats!
Grr just did their update and they say Muskegon county north will be under a winter storm watch
I’m READY INDYY just wait till they issue the WSW in about 2-3hrs thee blog will be ROCKING AND ROLLING!!!
NWS issuing a watch 48 hrs out… A sure sign of a shift
WSW for my area get READY!!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
Watch area is about what i expected
yea, heaviest snow totals look to be further north than u Mark .
Yep, but my map has 3-5 for southern Isebella and Gratiot. On par for now. Still need to watch models over the next 24hrs for shift south or north.
WINTER STORM WATCH MUSKEGON NEWAGO NORTH HERE IT COMES!!! INDYY..
Don’t you live in Grand Rapids though?
That looks about right and were within 48 hrs so There won’t be any changes most likely however Stranger things have happend, I just know Henry(BC) will be upset when it’s 33 and a cold rain until late Thursday night
What a bunch of bull. What did you people in GRR do to mother nature that she is avoiding us. Or should I say old man winter!
Hype is storm repellent .
That being said, Bill has used the word rain, repeatedly in his forecasts for days regarding this “storm”
Ya we need rain but snow makes people money.
WOW!!!,!,!,!
Biggest snow fall since last, last, last?? Don’t know when!!,!,!,
Straight from Bill’s forecast blog
The European would also give G.R. a good 2-3″ of snow Thurs. evening/night
Hear that, a good 2-3 INCHES!!,!,
Sigh, wish it would’ve moved south a bit Oh, well, maybe 2013
lol!
I thought it would be more counties than this???!!!
http://classic.wunderground.com/severe.asp
It’s for Muskegon county aren’t you happy? Because you live in Muskegon county?
Ofcoarse, but I would like to see this extend further north, between Manistee and Traverse City.
The NWS up there hasn’t done their update yet I’m sure with their update they will issue one
Deb, your in Oklahoma City? Why all the interest here?
She used to live here.
6-10 Muskegon to the north and for GR 3-6 and for Kalamazoo I think like 1-2 inches if that just my prediction!!??
Straight from Bill’s forecast blog
The European would also give G.R. a good 2-3″ of snow Thurs. evening/night
Look we can’t even get a little snow out of this system. Rain, Bla ,sucks. My snow blower is crying.
Winter Warlock….GR will still have some snow atleast enough to cover the grass and get that ugly grass coverd up
Hey Clint your 10 inches is low u guys may get 20 inches when it’s all done Sunday!!!! Every thing is coming togeather like INDY said 3 days ago!! INDYY…
Do you live in one of the counties under the watch?
How much snow do you think Sparta/Rockford could get?
Check out the new NWS proposed alternative text for this Winter Storm Watch:
http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/messages.php?wfo=GRR
Never realized they even did that.. Thanks.
Blizzard like conditions wow NWS need to hire INDYY…INDYY
It’s lightly spitting snow right now. Something is better then nothing. Even if the grass peeks through the snow on Christmas it will be better then the Christmas of 82 or 83 when it was 60 and sunny. ( my then baby walked down the bike path bare foot).
I still believe all of the CWA will have some sort of advisory even if we barley meet critrea the Friday morning commute will be horrid and it’s the first snowfall of any kind since well forever
agreed
Yes, flash freeze, 1-4 inches of snow that will blow from your back yard into the next county so yes, as we get closer, but for now they buy time on that until late Wednesday…. time to look at more models and perhaps add counties or drop counties from the watch area.
Hmmmmm Bill’s 4pm update no sighn of rain wow! Like I said Sunday we won’t even get above 32* on Thursady Grand Rapids , West Michigan will be in the winter storm watch late tonight it’s on winter storm is coming the blogg will be rolling 36 hour pill please lets do it INDYY…..
People! Don’t despair! Kent county could up to 3 inches before this is all over!!!!! THREE inches! Have you not read? Have you not heard? Three inches! That’s a quarter of a FOOT of SNOW!
Disclaimer (current ground temps may greatly alter the actual forecasted depth of snow. For full effect be sure the ground in your area is sufficiently frozen)
lol
ok 33!
LOL!
Who knows come closer to the event the actual warnings (if any) or advisories could shift either to the north or to the south. Right now the conditions are possible but time will tell.
SlimJim
new thread
ITS SNOWING!!!! Big wet flakes here in GH/ west wolive!!
18z GFS loading right now
Boohoo nada for Holland once again