Tues. Evening/Night MixDecember 18th, 2012 at 2:00 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
4 PM - Winter Storm Watch – more details coming. There will be Wind Advisories for everyone with the approaching storm and probably at least Winter Weather Advisories for the snow and slick roads. A light mix will develop and move through the area. With temperatures near or a little above freezing, main roads should just be wet even with some light snow falling. Be a little cautious of a slick spot on a lesser traveled road if the snow gets a little heavier for a brief time. However, precipitation amounts will be light. The NAM Caribou is highest at 0.15″ for G.R., the GFS has 0.12″ See below the links for the latest on the big Thurs./Fri. storm. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours and the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours. I work the 23rd, 24th, 25th and 31st. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast.
Rain Thursday, very windy with snow Thursday night, very windy with snow showers on Friday. Travel will be very difficult Thursday night and early Friday. The NAM caribou has the maximum wind at S. Haven going to 38 knots (43.7 mph) and 36 knots at Holland (41.4 mph). The NAM caribou forecast snow totals (these look a little high and the mix here is strange, but here they are for what it’s worth): 20.2″ Cadillac (Yikes!), 6.9″ Ludington, 5.9″ Kalamazoo, 5.2″ Pontiac (why more there?), 4.3″ Jackson, 4.0″ Lansing, 3.6″ G.R., 3.1″ Big Rapids, 2.8″ Muskegon, 1.6″ Mt. Pleasant, just a trace in S. Haven – I told you they looked weird. Three things to take from this. It’s going to get VERY windy, esp. at Lake Michigan Thursday night into midday Friday. Two, the rain will go over to snow and many areas will see accumulations (pretty much everybody. Three, it’s going to fall below freezing, so with the cold and the wind blowing the snow around, roads are going to get icy for Thurs. night and Friday – make your plans accordingly. This is going to be a major snowstorm for a large portion of Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Michigan. There’s also a chance of thunder as close as Chicago/S. Bend and severe storms are possible from S. Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM caribou prints out 0.86″ precipitation for the storm and 1.09″ for the European. The European would also give G.R. a good 2-3″ of snow Thurs. evening/night. The European gives Cadillac 1.48″ of total precipitation. 850mb temperatures during the precipitation are -2.3C down to -11C. IF…IF that’s all snow…that’s going to be over a foot of snow…at a 10-1 water to snow ratio…that’s 14.8″. With the strong wind..travel in that kind of storm would be extremely difficult (Thurs. night and Friday). Note the heavy snow (north of the 32 degree blue line) from near Kansas City to E. Iowa into Wisconsin to the highest elevations from Cadillac/Lake City to near Gaylord. Here’s the heavy snow band from Iowa to N. Michigan (look at the snow near Traverse City! Early January looking chilly. The hits just keep on comin’. Looks like we’re getting into a pattern of getting a storm about every 3-4 days…with mixed precipitation for most and the snow piling up in northern Michigan.