Rain, Wind and Snow

December 19th, 2012 at 5:53 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  There’s a Winter Weather Advisory for most of us (in the purple color on the map here).  That doesn’t start until 1 AM Friday morning.  It continues until 7 PM Friday.  It’s a Winter Storm Warning for Mason, Lake and Osceola Counties to the north starting at 7 PM today through 7 PM on Friday…and a Winter Storm Warning for Berrien and Cass Counties south starting at 1 AM Friday and going until 7 PM Friday evening.  I am in general not real impressed with this system.  First, it’s relatively warm, so most of the precipitation will be rain.  We should get a lot of that, around an inch.  It just doesn’t look cold enough for Lake Michigan to be much of a player.  The 00Z NAM is in…it gives G.R. 1.5″ of snow, 1.6″ for Muskegon, 2.5″ for Big Rapids, 11.0″ for Ludington and (drum roll)….23.4″ for Cadillac (with 2.10″ of precipitation!).  That high a snow amount is unlikely, but the total for G. R. looks about right.   18Z GFS doesn’t even take G.R. below freezing Thursday night.  Snowfall amounts off the NAM/GFS are anemic.  The GFS gives G.R. 1.1″ of snow, Kalamazoo just 0.6″.  The 18Z GFS only gives about 3″ to Cadillac with the heavier snow just north of there.     It looks like the significant snow will be at least north of a line from Ludington to Alpena.  The wind will be significant.  The models continue to forecast 20-30 mph winds with 30-40 mph the lakeshore and gusts higher than that.   The winds increase late tonight and it stays breezy tomorrow.  The fastest winds will be on the back side of the system late tomorrow night and on Friday.  Things calm down for the weekend.       NOTE:  European has a major storm for next Thursday (192 hours).  Kyle found 2 counties in northern Missouri that were under a Severe T-Storm Warning and a Winter Storm Warning at the same time!   Also20 dead from cold in Russia…hundreds injured, coldest start to winter since 1938!  If you haven’t seen this yet:  mudslide vs. train…mud wins!

219 Responses to “Rain, Wind and Snow”

  1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    LOL…leave it to Muskegon County….check out the NAM: 1 inch south of Ravenna to a foot in the northwestern part of the county. Can we ever be on the right side of the rain/snow line?!?


    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      That’s the ratio though I would depend more on the non ratio lol

  2. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Probally working I’m guessing I still think that from Muskegon county north will be under a blizzard warning by tomorrow afternoon. Following the winter storm warning. But not to the Southern lake shore counties just my thoughts!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Just go with Oceana county and north. I am holding out hope that the Muskegon area can be just far enough north, but the past couple years have been CRAP for Muskegon. The rain/snow line seems to always make it JUST past us, like the NAM is showing.

  3. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Looks like I might be in a sweet spot then Matt!!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I should have moved to that side of Muskegon!

  4. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Oh and Matt isn’t that the model you said flip flops? Or was that Stephen ?

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Nope, although it has been today. Unfortunately, the GFS has been very consistent, and it is the one that is usually all over the place!

  5. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Well I make sure to let everyone know what its doing up here because it looks like I might be all snow for most of this!!

  6. I have distant future plans to move to Iowa. Then once I get my fill of weather I’ll move back.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I am moving to Hancock, MI……………some day…………..and plan on getting buried under 300 inches of snow every year!

  7. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Bill, I wish that you might discuss in more detail why “you are not impressed with this system”.

  8. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Well we will see what bill has to say here …

  9. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I still don’t think that the rain is going to cover the whole state of Michigan tomorrow. I think I am going to get hammered up here in Oceans County!!!

  10. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I’ll let everyone know when the snow starts up here!

  11. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Winter storm warning update….


    Clint it looks like right now the highest snowfall amounts will be north of you

  12. Tom (Wyoming) says:

    Does anyone have a link to current location of the low?

      1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

        Thanks Deb.

  13. Mike Geukes says:

    Low is in extreme southeast Kansas

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      Where was it foretasted to be at this point?

      1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

        I haven’t seen anyone post on the latest GFS, has the track changed at all?

        1. Ben says:

          No it’s been consistent

  14. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Could very well be Deb but I’m still betting that the low will track just a little further SE than they r forecasting… so I will get dumped on. Got to have some wishful thinking! lol

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Well never to late to wish!

  15. switchy says:

    Lets go to the norths ehhh

    Thee Switchy

  16. switchy says:

    Pakin up thee sledsn friday no matter what.

    Tiss theee season. Getting to ride 18 days earlier then 3 year ago.

    Cycles people. Lokk toward theee 23rd


  17. Mike Geukes says:

    Low should eventually move to Central Illinois by late Thursday morning to early Thursday afternoon. The greatest pressure falls are located in Central Illinois. Low pressure have a tendency to move toward the greatest pressure falls.

  18. switchy says:

    state theeeEE facts. Snow will be In theEE south Borgman AeRa. Will be Takin Thheee DnR trails to Thhee Limit.

    Ridin thee 60)RR Polairs lokking for big aiRRRR

    The SWITchy

  19. INDY says:

    We are glad Fizzer and his 33 best are all in bed now !!!! Now the party can start on Bill’s blogg!!!! INDYY

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      Since this storm seems to be a bust, how do you feel about next weeks storm?

      1. INDY says:

        Lets wait and see Bill thinks it’s a bust now on radar still looks like a BIG storm!!! We can’t forget about the wind coming super storm sandy wind coming!! INDYY…

  20. switchy says:

    Ask thee Chef ant Thee BILMAR to take PICs. Theis will be A sTorm PLOw fold for Sue

    The Switchy

  21. switchy says:

    IBBY is Back. About Time


    Switchy iS tRackin Live in the Nort Dorrr

    and High A tOp of Day break church


  22. switchy says:

    Looking for the mad dash for theee end of the year. Sittin and stockin wood

    thISSSSSS is purEEEE Michigan Timmy Allen


    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      nOt surE whAt the SPARATIC CapS LOck’s are ALl abOUt, but oKKKKKKKKKKK
      That’s for hoping for snow right.

      1. Tom (Wyoming) says:


      2. INDY says:

        2+31=33 INDYY….

  23. INDY says:

    Late night shakes can’t help myself to sleep 36 hour pill is a thrill …INDY..

    1. Jack says:

      INDYYYYYYYYYYYYYYyyyyyyy CUUUUUUUUUEEeeeeeeee :;: Jerry Lee Lewis – Whole Lotta Shakin’ Going On (1957) – YouTube
      ► 2:01► 2:01

  24. Kimoeagle says:

    Why is Cadillac due to get more snow than the Soo?

  25. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    INDYYY R U READY!!! I’m ready up here, got 2 …30 packs and food for SNOW AND BLOW…. Blizzard Warning on the way for tomorrow!!!!

  26. INDY says:

    HO HO HO INDY IS A GO !!!!! BLIZZARD WARNINGS COMING SUPER STORM SANDY WINDS!!!! I am glad somebody thinks like me!! I feel like Jerry Magurie SHOW ME THE STORMMM!! INDYY…

  27. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    So INDYY were do you think this low is going to track, I’m guessing Indiana Michigan boarder!!

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      I say between South Bend and Indy, but I know I’m in the minority.

  28. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    That would be perfect I hope that is the case Tom!!

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      Me too Clint…me too.

  29. Tom (Wyoming) says:

    Looks like there is heavy rain NE of South Haven. Can anyone verify this?

  30. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Looking like 1″ or less now for most of the area.

    North of Ludington to Mt. Pleasant, LOOK OUT.

  31. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Hey Tom I know that Holland is reporting light rain right now. 39° there right now!!

  32. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I’m not buying the gfs because like 4 hours ago it was saying I was going to get between 6-10 inches and now it says like 2-3 inches….

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      Precip amounts, and type have jumped around so much over the past 48 hours that I find all of them hard to believe. The GFS especially. We’ll just have to wait and see.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Go with the RDB model, and support the team,

  33. John (Holland) says:

    I just stepped outside and we’ve got some slushy rain falling right now. Pity it’s not snow, but I’m hoping for some lake effect on the backside.

    1. John (Holland) says:

      Winds out of the SW.

      1. John (Holland) says:

        SE rather. I need sleep haha

  34. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I think by tomorrow morning the computer modles will have it handled very well!!

  35. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    The winds are just starting to pick up here but no precipitation yet…

  36. Jack says:

    I Dislike This GAME !,!!!!!

  37. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    I’m just waiting for that heavier band near Holland to move into my area and see how much snow comes out of it!!

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      It’s approaching me right now, I’ll let you know what what falls when it gets here.

    2. Katie in Kentwood says:

      It’s rain right now, according to the radar. The only place it is snowing is near Muskegon.

      1. Katie in Kentwood says:

        And I just realized the band of rain is moving north…where it is starting to snow. Haha

  38. I wish I had Indy’s enthusiasm.

    1. Jack says:

      INDY says:
      December 19, 2012 at 2:21 pm
      *************BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE COMING ************STAY TUNED INDYY….


  39. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Alright thanks Tom!

  40. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Hey Jack Blizzard Warning are coming I would say by tomorrow by like10am or so. Just for the northern lake shore counties like Muskegon and to the north!

    1. Jack says:

      I hear Ya, Loud and Clear…..Clint, you Should get Buried in Rothbury.!! Here is Honest Metorologist , teeee, heeee http://www.brucesussman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/weather-cartoon7.jpg

  41. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Agreed Jack!!

  42. Jack says:

    New Thread Gang, Check it out !! Peace… ;-)

  43. Tom (Wyoming) says:

    36 degrees and plain old rain here…

  44. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We are getting some huge, one inch snow flakes under this heavy band currently.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Making a very, very, very slushy coating on the deck….

    2. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      There isn’t even precip over you???????

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        Whoops I’m on the wrong thread lol!

  45. Mike Geukes says:

    Forecast Hour, 00Z 21 DEC
    CANADIAN has a 985 low over Southern Lake Michigan
    EURO has a 986 Low over the Holland Area
    GFS has a 983 Low over the South Bend Area
    NAM has a 985 Low over the Benton Harbor Area

  46. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I was surprised to wake up and find that it is still snowing here. It is VERY slushy, but it is making a thick slush coating on things. If you’re in the area, be careful on the roads! My deck is very slippery.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It is definitely laying. Friend in Muskegon said she has at least an inch. Being more south, I have about 1/2 inch with bursts of snow continuing.

  47. Tyler says:

    We have at least 8 inches in Escanaba from this storm. I estimated we have at least 13 inches for the season so far. We had a couple inches in Late November that stayed for a week due to the cold weather. Then it got warm and all melted first week of December. Then we got hit again December 9th with 3-4 inches then the last week it was in the 30′s with one day getting in the low 40′s and tons of rain that melted all the snow we had. Now I think the snow is here to stay for the rest of the winter. 8 inches and counting.

  48. Tyler says:

    The soo had 11 inches from this storm last I heard. Iron Mountain is supposed to end up with 9 inches according to the weather man in Marquette. Stephenson which is 30 minutes north of Menominee had 9 inches and still snowing! A town down near Madison Wisconsin had 19.5 inches of snow!

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