Rain, Wind and SnowDecember 19th, 2012 at 5:53 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
There’s a Winter Weather Advisory for most of us (in the purple color on the map here). That doesn’t start until 1 AM Friday morning. It continues until 7 PM Friday. It’s a Winter Storm Warning for Mason, Lake and Osceola Counties to the north starting at 7 PM today through 7 PM on Friday…and a Winter Storm Warning for Berrien and Cass Counties south starting at 1 AM Friday and going until 7 PM Friday evening. I am in general not real impressed with this system. First, it’s relatively warm, so most of the precipitation will be rain. We should get a lot of that, around an inch. It just doesn’t look cold enough for Lake Michigan to be much of a player. The 00Z NAM is in…it gives G.R. 1.5″ of snow, 1.6″ for Muskegon, 2.5″ for Big Rapids, 11.0″ for Ludington and (drum roll)….23.4″ for Cadillac (with 2.10″ of precipitation!). That high a snow amount is unlikely, but the total for G. R. looks about right. 18Z GFS doesn’t even take G.R. below freezing Thursday night. Snowfall amounts off the NAM/GFS are anemic. The GFS gives G.R. 1.1″ of snow, Kalamazoo just 0.6″. The 18Z GFS only gives about 3″ to Cadillac with the heavier snow just north of there. It looks like the significant snow will be at least north of a line from Ludington to Alpena. The wind will be significant. The models continue to forecast 20-30 mph winds with 30-40 mph the lakeshore and gusts higher than that. The winds increase late tonight and it stays breezy tomorrow. The fastest winds will be on the back side of the system late tomorrow night and on Friday. Things calm down for the weekend. NOTE: European has a major storm for next Thursday (192 hours). Kyle found 2 counties in northern Missouri that were under a Severe T-Storm Warning and a Winter Storm Warning at the same time! Also: 20 dead from cold in Russia…hundreds injured, coldest start to winter since 1938! If you haven’t seen this yet: mudslide vs. train…mud wins!