Cool and Dry Pattern

December 22nd, 2012 at 3:07 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   S. Haven early Friday by Rick at ReportIt.  This was close to the time that the S. Haven Lighthouse weather station recorded a gust to 71 mph.  That’s almost up to Hurricane (75 mph) strength!  You can see the wind pushing the spray to the south.  The satellite loop shows both high clouds passing by.  You can also make out the snow on the ground from the lake-effect band from Holland to Indiana.  33 degrees and some sun, so a little snowmelt going on.  Snowcover:  trace in Grand Rapids, 1″ at Muskegon, Ionia, Lansing and Hesperia, 2″ at Hart and Big Rapids, 4″ at Scottville, 6″ at Houghton Lake, 7″ at Lake City, 8″ at Beulah, 4 to 12″ around the Traverse City area, 12″ S. Ste. Marie, 14″ Gaylord, 15″ Marquette, Grand Marais.  The wind has calmed down and should be west at 10-15 mph today and down to 5-10 mph for most of Sunday.  We’re into a cool and dry pattern.  The NAM (caribou) gives G.R. highs of 33, 35, 33 over the next 3 days.  The GFS is 32, 32, 28.  The GFS would give G.R. around 1/2 inch of snow Thurs. and the European has a half to one inch Christmas Eve Night, another inch on the 26th and 11 degrees early Thurs. AM.  Both models have about 1-2″ of snow next Saturday.  The GFS (it’s the GFS) has a shot of Arctic Air around 1/3 with temperatures down in the single figures.  Note:  It’s hard to get to zero in G.R. without a solid snowcover.   Speaking of snow cover, early Friday Traverse City had 10″ on the ground, with 12″ at S. Ste. Marie, 15″ at Marquette and 16″ at Grand Marais.  Cool high temperatures on Friday:  63 Orlando, 61 Tampa, 46 Atlanta, 9 Grand Forks ND, 8 International Falls MN.  The past 3 days Las Vegas has had highs of only 48,47 and 50.  Oymyakon, Russia has had low temperature the past 4 mornings of -65F, -66, -63 and -61.   Cannonsburg Ski Area is going to try and open on the 26thCongratulations to Pando on their 50th year – they are hoping to open on the 26th as they make snow.  Ski resorts north of U.S. 10 are generally open now with fresh natural snow.

110 Responses to “Cool and Dry Pattern”

  1. Good morning all – 30 degrees here this morning – zero snow on the ground – I am hoping the CPC outlook pans out for the next couple weeks – here is the 8-14 day http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

    1. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

      Unfortunately, it looks like the next couple of systems will be tracking south of us. The snow drought continues.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Looks good and the above precip would be a lot of SNOW!! ROCK n ROLL!

  2. Dan says:

    Cooler now, still not cold or what I would consider to be cold. We have what looks like to be about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow on the grass from yesterday!
    We need more snow to cover the entire grassy areas because I’ll bet we will lose this very little amount of snow.

  3. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    I have no snow on the ground here. Two miles to the west, there is snow on the ground in the southwest section of Holland.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its 30° here now with no snow on the ground. It sure looks to me that GR will have a good shot of seeing a green Christmas again this year. In fact we are leaving for Florida on Christmas day and we may have a good chance of seeing more snow on our way then what GR has seen here all this winter so far. Any way while the next one to two weeks look like they may be closer to average around here there looks to be little if any snow. I had earlier thought that GR would see around an average amount of snow fall this winter but now I have to wonder if we can even get the 50 inches we got last year!
    SlimJim

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      As usual the models will be wrong. They are showing hardly any snow in the 15 day long range, however that will end up being totally WRONG! Get Ready!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I’m counting on you, Rocky!! :-)

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Let’s see the headline says cool and dry and I say cool with above average SNOWFALL. The pattern change has begun, however it will be a gradual process.
    By next weekend it will be a winter wonderland around here!

    1. arcturus says:

      Just like you said for the last storm, huh?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Well no one be correct all of the time just ask a meteorologist!!! The fun is just beginning 7 to 10 inches of snow by the end of this year and at least 40 inches in January. Winter will be ROCKIN and ROLLIN baby!

  6. michael g (SE GR) says:

    CFS forecast for January from three weeks ago, and from yesterday. What a difference!

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/282423738731995136/photo/1

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Well the CFS model needs to correct at least once so far this winter so it might as well be the January temperatures. The law of averages are with CFS model!! Bring on the cold, the lake effect SNOW and the system SNOW!!

    2. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

      Meh… I’m checked out on models at the moment. They don’t seem to be getting anything right lately.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Except the GFS…the only time it was right was when it said NO snow for the last storm. Oh, the irony….

  7. Bnoppe says:

    Areas south of 96 have the best chance of any accumulating snow this week, and it would be on Wed night and maybe a couple of inches

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Lol, Muskegon on the edge again.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        By the time this storm arrives it will be stronger and farther Northwest!

  8. SW Kent says:

    Very poor chance that we see any decent snow for at least 12 days…..

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You are 100% WRONG! Mark it down!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      8 to 14 day outlook is for above average SNOWFALL!!

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Don’t look now, however as soon as you guys start spouting off about a dry no snow pattern for next week the models are starting to pull the mid to late week storm right up towards MI! SNOW is on the way!!

  10. michael g (SE GR) says:

    All of a sudden the GFS has shifted west and brings us some snow on Wednesday. We’ll have to see if the trend continues. Wouldn’t be the first time, lots of storms that supposed to miss us to the south and east have tracked farther north and west. Never see it go the other way.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Michael, I have see it go both way (to the nw and se) but that was more so for systems that were in line to affect us. I will be paying attention to this as we are leaving for my sister in laws down in Cape Coral, FL and we are leaving on Christmas morning.
      SlimJim

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        personally I would like to see it slow down and be later by about 18 hours LOL
        SlimJim

  11. If I recall, I think most of the models have been pretty close to predicting a warmer forecast than the cold and snowy forecast.

  12. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    I was just about to mention the NW trend that’s taking place for the storm system that was initially expected to miss us to the SE, would now give all of us a hefty snowstorm.

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      For the 25th thru 27th.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It will end up in Wisconsin…. :P

      I guess I’ll let you guys know it doesnt just happen in west Michigan. I’m visiting family in PA and here we oly got 3 out of the 6 to 10 inches they were calling for. It is just nice to see the ground covered though!!!

  13. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I predict you guys will see a big snowstorm before the years end!

    1. fixxxer says:

      And i predict you will be wrong.

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        Just tryin to lighten people’s spirits

        1. Michael g (se gr) says:

          Going away would work.

        2. Rumrunner says:

          Hahahahahahahahaha!

  14. Dan says:

    We are definitely OVERDUE! It is only a matter of time and we SHOULD be covered in white all around!!!

  15. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Two things 1. its a nice and sunny day here now with a temp of 33°here. and 2. will test my I pod next to see if I can use that as well.
    SlimJim

    1. Slimjim says:

      Now to see if I pod wii work
      Slimjim

  16. Jim S. says:

    Interesting trend. The 12 z gifts would give everyone 2-4″,’ 4-6″ south of I-94, and 6-8 through much of Indiana.

  17. Sprites says:

    12z GFS would definitely take the Low through Toledo before the secondary would form along the east coast. I think some of the energy and moisture would transfer to the east coast, but if the 12z GFS is accurate, we could atleast see 3-5″ on Wednesday.

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      Meteogram giving most of us 5.5″ to 6.5″ Wednesday.

  18. Astute and Wise says:

    After the all the End of the World parties yesterday, I must declare Today is the first day of the rest of your life. A chance to make this World a better place for all. Now, lest put all the forecast models into one database and have an Actual Accurate forecast model.

  19. Sprites says:

    Joe Bastardi is getting worried about another “East Coast Megasnowstorm” shifting to the Midwest. LOL

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
    Will wait for ensembles.GFS startling with west shift.. Secondaries dont form inland.I did not expect what GFS shows tho, but no knee jerk

    1. fixxxer says:

      I dont know why you people even listen to anything joe.b says.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      His comment are hilarious! He is worried about a secondary low forming inland, well he won’t need to worry about that because what he is calling the secondary low will end up being the main storm! With a positive PNA and a near neutral NAO he will get his big East coast storm!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        “will not”

  20. GunLakeDeb says:

    My heart breaks for the ski areas – they use to open the day after Thanksgiving, back in the “Ice-Age ’70′s”. Even though I’m a Born Again Skier (been to Colorado and have experienced “Rapture” LOL!) – I still hold a special place in my heart for Pando, where I first learned to ski!

  21. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    It defiantly looks like a cooler pattern is on the way for you guys I just checked the high temps for gr this week and most of the week highs will only be in the mid to upper 20′s and no 30′s

  22. Jim S. says:

    12z gem keeps wed storm on the east coast as does the ukmet.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      By tomorrow these models along with a few others will come into line. Get ready for SNOW mid week and next weekend!!

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Jim, did you see Christmas eve and day though? Looks like west Michigan could get a nice little snowfall…

      http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

      1. Jim S. says:

        Yes…I was looking at the post Xmas storm, the Xmas eve storm keeps creeping closer. Not a big storm but could be enough for a whie xmas

      2. D Dog says:

        I’m liking the looks of that, how accurate is that canadian model?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          It has it’s moments.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yeah, it has its moments. It is a decent model, but it tends to have a warm bias. So, it may be bringing the low up farther north with that bias. We shall see….

      3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        By the time it gets here it will be bigger than is currently being depicted! Snow on Christmas eve, then on the 26th and 27 and then again next weekend. All of this after people were saying it looks like a dry no snow pattern is setting up. Too funny!

        1. fixxxer says:

          We will have another green xmas rocky.

        2. Jack says:

          Rocky, What Does The Ole…DART-BOARD !!!! Predict ? ;-)

        3. Cort S. says:

          Oh Rocky, I love your RDB model, but sometimes you say the funniest things. :)

          Rocky (Rockford) says:
          November 24, 2012 at 10:28 am

          Imagine that – the forecast now agree with me – no snowstorms next week and above average temperatures for the first week of December! We are stuck in another horrible winter weather pattern, yet we keep hearing from various people and weather web sites about the cold and snow coming. What a joke – there are no snowstorms in sight and no reason to believe that we will be having a decent winter this year. Get ready people for a winter similar to last year if not worse! I will be heading up to Canada and the UP to find some good skiing this winter. In the meantime I will just continue golfing until and if winter arrives!!

          Rocky (Rockford) says:
          November 28, 2012 at 4:55 pm

          Get ready to laugh, because this could be even worse than last winter!

          Rocky (Rockford) says:
          November 29, 2012 at 3:41 pm

          I see there are finally a lot of people on this blog that are starting to face reality! You know the drill:
          1. It was a great fall day out on the golf course.
          2. I plan on golfing this weekend and right on into next week.
          3. No cold air in sight.
          4. Definitely no SNOWSTORMS in sight!
          5. We are entrenched in a no snow pattern.
          6. This pattern is just like last year – long range showing cold and snow that NEVER happens! A lot of HYPE about this winter being cold and snowy? Ya right!
          7. There are ZERO indication that we will be having a cold and snowy winter. In fact all current indications point towards another BUST of a winter – maybe worse than last year!

          Get out and enjoy this GREAT fall weather. Winters may never be the same again. I would suggest moving farther North or out to the Rocky Mountain region if you like SNOW!!!

        4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Cort would you like to lead my fan club! I just state the facts and in late Nov we were in a NO SNOW PATTERN!!! Currently the pattern is changing – just the facts my man. Get Ready to ROCK n ROLL. Just sit back and watch WINTER arrive!

      4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Too funny Cort – just the facts! I am happy to hear that you are paying attention. Keep up the good work!

  23. ryan says:

    forecast looks cold enough to start forming some ice on the inland lakes

  24. fixxxer says:

    Darn cold but at least the suns out. I hate gloomy days.

    Bring on summer billy! ;)

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon says:

      Nope ;)
      Deal with it for 3 months.

    2. Jack says:

      Hey Fixxxer , I thought You Going on Criuse….Sooooon !!!! ;-)

  25. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    I’m liking the looks of this!

    GFS 120 hour snowfall -> http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

  26. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    Looks good! Regardless of how much snow we get the next 2 weeks (at least), temperatures look to be at or below average with nothing better than the mid 30′s at best. So unless we are bone dry for that whole period, we should get some decent accumulatingsnow that will actually stick around for awhile.

  27. Jack says:

    CUE: Billy Joel You May Be Right With Lyrics – YouTube
    ► 4:51► 4:51
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie5-LrulBGk

  28. Jim S says:

    18z gfs is still giving us a decent shot at snow after Christmas. It does not give us much Xmas eve. 18z Nam shows about an inch south of 96 on Xmas eve.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’d be happy to see an “almost-White Christmas!”

  29. Brian(Grandville) says:

    I am not kidding, I actually saw someone cutting their grass today.

    1. Steelie says:

      Good Day,

      Would not suprise me in the least.

      Steelie

  30. The good news is that the GFS is trending northwest with both the light snow system for Christmas eve / Christmas day morning and with the bigger storm for the day after Christmas, not that we will get any, but it’s a nice new development and will hope the trend continues.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol you guys never give up.

      Happy green xmas everyone!

      1. Mike in Hamilton says:

        Mine will be happy regardless of the color of the ground. I may be dreaming of a white Christmas, but the day isn’t really about the weather…

        Hope you all have a wonderful day with friend and/or family!

        1. bobcat says:

          ‘LIKE’

  31. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    It looks like the gfs is trending more northwest now and gives areas along and south of 96 6-10″ and areas north of 96 less than 4″ overall looks like a snowier pattern for you guys!

  32. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Imagine that – the GFS is trending to the Northwest! Bring it on!

  33. Trend northwest is important, but when the storm transfers energy to coastal system will be key too.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Agreed, however just the fact it is trending NW at least puts us in the ball game. Yesterday and the AM many many people had written this storm off completely!!

  34. kevin. w says:

    Now that most models show it on the west side of the Appalachians it always comes back to us and I’ll betcha we end up in the sweet spot. I don’t think there will be much east coast energy transfer as the Euro/GFS are going back to there original storm track. I do see more of snowier pattern coming anyone else.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Sounds good and we are definitely transitioning into a COLD and SNOWY pattern! 7 to 10 inches between now and the end of the year and at least 40 inches in January!

    2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      I agree. It try’s to transfer at hour 72, but fails… I honestly don’t think if will transfer. That leads us to a sustained/deepening sub 996 low pressure.

      If the current models verify, we could see what western Wisconsin had last week… (Wow)… Blizzard conditions with 8″+!!!

      Full sampling of this storm will occur tomorrow afternoon. I’d say, if current models stay consistent, after being sampled tomorrow, we could see Winter Storm Watches as early as Monday.

  35. Storm waning says:

    Copied, saved, recorded, noted, set, tracked, compared, locked

    “Sounds good and we are definitely transitioning into a COLD and SNOWY pattern! 7 to 10 inches between now and the end of the year and at least 40 inches in January!” From Rocky Rockford

    As is…. 95% chance of a snowy Christmas

    1. Storm waning says:

      The white Christmas per Rocky’s prediction 72 hours ago

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Get ready to ROCK n ROLL storm waning. Keep up the good work!

  36. Switchy says:

    Just got back from Gaylord. Nice Snow. Had the Snow machine up past 100.

    The Business owner’s vey Happy up North. They have Snow between Christmas and NewYears. That has not happened in 3 years.

    Trackin Live Theee
    Switchy

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Plus..there isn’t enough snow to run down here…so that means that (Matt Kirkwood and) everyone else down here is going north to find snow to run their machines.

  37. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Probably not the best idea to go out on any ice yet:

    http://www.inquisitr.com/451761/truck-falls-through-ice-on-lake-winnipeg/

  38. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I’m going to say that if you’re south of a Muskegon to Alma line you have the best chance right now of receiving 6-10″ with blizzard conditions!

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      And east of 131

  39. Skot says:

    Storm coming soon!!!! When? I dont know. someday I guess.

    1. Skot says:

      Theres always Spring.

  40. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Beginning Wednesday afternoon.

    ALSO… a small 1-3″ event on Monday evening. Might even be advisory worthy with 3-5″ depending on location (Mainly SE of GR) Hillsdale, Monroe, and the Detroit area.

    1. Sprites says:

      I think all of us would be happy with 1-3″ Christmas morning!

      1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        +1!

  41. kevin. w says:

    I just noticed on the last run of the euro/gfs models that the high in the southeast is stronger, thus a more northerly track.

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      This definitely weighs on the track of the low pressure center.

      Also, they tend to track further NW when negatively tilted like this one will be, being as it has a “split in the road” type of track (east or west of the Appalachians), it will likely track further NW on the west side of the Apps, and even further NW closer to the baroclinic zone.

      At this point my confidence is medium to high for the further NW track, and stronger scenario thus bringing most of Southern lower Michigan it’s first significant snowfall (4-6″)!

  42. Jack says:

    off Subject….MEGA- TRON…RULES !!!!!!! He is poised to Break Jerry Rice’s Record !! 4 more yards to Go !! Stay -Tuned ! Indy are You THERE ????

  43. Mike in Hamilton says:

    You perplex me, Rocky. I can’t if you were trolling before, or are trolling now!!! ;)
    This blog is like an addiction; I do not post near as much as others, but I read it multiple times a day. Keep it real fellow weather geeks!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Thanks for paying attention. Keep up the good work!

  44. Kris says:

    There’s definitely something happening with the weather. I have horrible arthritis in both ankles and today I can barely walk. Anyone else have this?

  45. Jim S. says:

    00z gfs is a bit further s.e. with the we’d storm. Still gives most 2-4″… More east do gr.

  46. Sprites says:

    How about for Christmas eve?

  47. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

    I told you all snow is on it’s way next week !!! Just wait and see. ;)

  48. John (Holland) says:

    No snow here on the south side of Holland, except a little in the shady areas. I visited my brother on the north side today, and they still have 2-3 inches even after the melt. Crazy lake effect bands.

    Anyway, looks like there’s reason to be hopeful for this week! Bring it on. Most of my parties are later in the week anyway.

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      Yea, all has melted away here in Portland. Only had an inch of snow ..

  49. I see the blog on weather bell is getting a bit upset at JB’s epic NY storm prediction, it might very well end up there but I wouldn’t want to be joe, torches and towns people headed to Frankenstein’s forecast office to seek justice against what looks more like a Great Lakes cutter. Lol oh and the model games keep us all playing name that storm, oh wait that would be the weather channel. I wonder how many flights it take those guys to get Jim c. To the right storm location?? Oh we’ll it does help the frequent mile program out. Ok enough picking, I shouldn’t throw rocks from my glass house of forecasting unless I want that Jersey mob descending onto my little forecast hut. Here’s to a hopefully snowier pattern !

Leave a Reply