A Cool Week Ahead

December 23rd, 2012 at 1:29 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Thanks to Jack Martin for this picture of snow on the ground Saturday AM in Fennville.  There was some snow accumulation in a narrow lake-effect band from western Allegan County down to Indiana.  It’s kind of hidden under the clouds in this MODIS Great Lakes satellite picture from Saturday afternoon (also not the snow on the ground across Oceana, Newaygo and N. Montcalm Counties northward…you can see the open water at the ponds in Newaygo Co. and in Wisconsin, Lake Winnebago and Green Lake (a very deep lake) have open water.  At the southern tip of Lake Michigan in Indiana, you can see no snow on the ground in the 5-10 miles closest to Lake Michigan (where it was a couple degrees warmer), but snow on the ground to the south across northern Indiana.  The air will be cold enough this week that all precipitation should fall as snow.  It looks partly sunny for today (Sun.), but could go overcast for a few hours.  I’m working the evening shift Sun./Mon./Tues., so tune in to 24-Hour News 8 for my latest forecast.   The NAM (caribou) has high temperatures of 32/32 for Sun./Mon.  With bare ground I think the mid 30s we have out will be closer.  The GFS has 0.07″ precipitation for G.R. Monday PM (still a little hope for a “white Christmas”), 0.29″ Weds. PM to Thurs. AM (which would be 3-4″ of snow if that were to happen), 0.06″ Friday PM/Night and 0.10″ Sat. PM/Night.  It also has 3/4″ of rain on 1/6, but that’s a long way off and not to be trusted yet.  The European has 0.02″ Christmas Eve night (a dusting), 0.05″ Weds. night (3/4″ – but more snow could fall toward I-69) and then 3-4″ on Saturday the 29th in the European is right (GFS has less snow).  I think that’s still the best bet for some shovelable snow.  We miss the Christmas snowstorm that goes south of us (and could give 6-12″ of snow to parts of Arkansas!).  Here’s the MODIS picture centered on Lake Superior.  Note the lake-effect clouds coming off Lake Nipigon.  Most of the lakes are frozen in Canada and NE Minnesota and there is a little ice forming in the bays of Lake Superior.  You can also see the “circle” north of La Crosse, Wisconsin.

The cold air is still in place from northern MT/ND/MN to Alaska.  Cut Bank MT had a high of +4 on Saturday, Williston ND couldn’t get past +8.  Fairbanks had a high low of -36/-43.  This is the most nights of -40 below and colder in Fairbanks since 1980 and they have a week left in the month.  Chicken, Alaska had a high/low of -48/-57, both record lows.  Most of Alaska is colder than average.  The high/low down at Juneau was 17/3 and at Anchorage 9/-5.  Eastern Europe is also very cold.  St. Petersburg, Russia had a high of zero (F) on 12/19th – that was 24 degrees colder than average.  83 people have died from the cold and 500 in hospitals in the Ukraine61 people have died from the cold in Poland.  Warsaw had a high temperature of 13F on Saturday, 22 degrees colder than average.  It’s been bitter cold in Siberia.  A “severe cold snap” has also hit northern Thailand.   Your friends vacationing in Florida had a relatively cool Saturday with highs in the low-mid 60s even down to Miami and Key West.  It’s been wet in California.  Sacramento had another 1.25″ of rain, bringing their monthly total to 4.22″.  Here’s Christmas Weather Extremes courtesy of the GRR NWS.   Here’s a nice write-up on the snowfall (up to 20″ near Madison! – 2nd greatest single-day snowstorm ever for MSN) in Wisconsin last Thursday.

180 Responses to “A Cool Week Ahead”

  1. Sprites says:

    18z looks about the exact same as the past 3 or 4 runs. As much as I hate to admit it, GFS has been pretty dead on inside of 4 days. Looks like much of the area should see a solid 2-5″ on Wednesday. Potentially more next weekend!

  2. Cort S. says:

    NWS Detroit has a good evaluation of the models’ handling of the Wednesday storm system. I cut out whole paragraphs that talk about this system, so if you are interested in more, head on over to their site to read their forecast discussion.

    AS EXPECTED, THE 12Z GEM NOW DEPICTS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND FALLS
    IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF GLOBAL IN ITS DEPICTION OF A
    SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS,
    REACHING AT LEAST CINCINNATI BEFORE THE NECESSARY TRANSITION TO THE
    EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS GETS UNDERWAY. LOCALLY, THIS MEANS A
    STORM-TRACK-SENSITIVE POTENTIAL FOR PART OF THE CWA TO FALL WITHIN
    THE FAVORED SWATH FOR 6+”. AS NOTED YESTERDAY, WHEN AND WHERE THAT
    ACTUALLY OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON MULTIPLE FACTORS, NOT THE LEAST OF
    WHICH WILL BE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    BEFORE THE TRANSITION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINS. IT MAY ALSO BE
    WORTH NOTING THAT THE RATHER LARGE SWATH OF COLD SECTOR SNOWFALL
    DEPICTED BY THE NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THESE MODELS WHICH
    LACK PARAMETRIZATION FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. A MORE REALISTIC
    EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR A MORE TRUNCATED NORTHWESTERN EDGE, WHICH
    ARGUES FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST FOR NW
    PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL POINTS
    WORTH JUST A MENTION AT THIS POINT ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR
    CONVECTION TO INTERFERE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FOR THE MODELED
    VERSION OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO FORCE AN ERRONEOUS EASTWARD
    TENDENCY IN THE NWP ON ACCOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. REGARDING THE
    LATTER, A QUICK LOOK THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PV PANELS
    REVEALS NOTHING OF NOTE AND SUGGESTS THAT NONE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
    ARE SUFFERING FROM SUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/EASTWARD TRACK BIAS AT
    THIS TIME.

      1. Cort S. says:

        That’s great! Where can I sign up for that course?

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      In other words, don’t put gas in the snowblowers in west Michigan yet.

      1. Scott (west olive) says:

        I agree. Another could have been should have been.

  3. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    The NAM and GFS are right now in agreement with one thing, it has taken a more westerly track. NAM gives us up to 8 inches of snow…while GFS gives us up to 5. The heaviest totals are still east…but they keep inching closer to our area. :)

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      Nice Deb :)

      1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

        We got a shot at 6-8 inches here in Ionia Co. according to the NAM

        1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

          See all of Michigan will have the snow they have been wanting after this week including Draco that hit northern Michigan so now it will be fair for all areas ;)

    2. Mike Geukes says:

      Deb, I suggest that your family better stock up on food and water for this snow storm. If you are low on food and stuff for the week.

      When I lived in Norman, Oklahoma there was a ice storm and the people wiped out the food shelves and water at Walmart. A snow storm was predicted with lots of snow and people did the same thing, but not to the extent of the ice storm.

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        We have a whole Walmart full of food lol we have a lot of food and are ready for this storm :)

    3. Don (Battle Creek) says:

      I’m in the 8-10″ range…I’ll take it! This winter has been SO boring…

    4. Don (Battle Creek) says:

      I’m in the 8-10″ range…I’ll take it! This winter has been SO boring…

    5. GunLakeDeb says:

      And I was threatening to send you a box of snow…LOL! Now I need YOU to send some of that to US!!

  4. INDY says:

    INDYY IS A FANSTAY FOOTBALL CHAMPION AFTER 13 LONG YEARS!!!!! TIME 2 PARTY!

  5. INDY says:

    INDYY IS A FANSTAY FOOTBALL CHAMPION AFTER 13 LONG SEASONS!!! TIME 2 PARTY OUT AT THEE YARDOFBRICKS!!*****BREAKING NEWS*****INDYY….

    1. Jack says:

      Way To Gooooo INDY !!!!!! CUE: Bad Company – Rock and Roll Fantasy – YouTube
      ► 3:20► 3:20
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHemB0t31Tw
      Jan 1, 1970 – Uploaded by DominicAragon
      No one uploaded this song studio version so I decided to. Enjoy!

    2. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      CONGRATS INDY !!!!!!!!!

  6. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I think most of you by tomorrow will either be under a wwa or wsw

  7. Rumrunner says:

    Hey Indy, same here. Between myself and Mrs Rum, we’ve kept the trophy
    3 out of the 4 past seasons.

    1. INDY says:

      Mrs Rum lololo like it!!! 3 out of 4 good job!! INDY…

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Come on GFS and NAM models. I still can’t believe that I am rooting for the GFS to have the correct storm track? Bring this baby another 100 miles NW and then we will be ROCKIN & ROLLIN! I will check the RDB model tomorrow. Lets hope it shows at least 6 inches for GGR!!

    1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      I am happy with the NAM

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I still think that the East coast energy transfer may not happen at all. Both the PNA and NOA will trending positive during this time frame! BRING it ON!

  10. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    I honestly think this is gonna bring a decent snow to West Michigan. At LEAST 4 inches. :)

  11. TAZ (freeport) says:

    We were scheduled to drive to Knoxville, TN on Wednesday morning.

    CHANGE OF PLANS!

    We will now depart Christmas afternoon.

  12. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    Arent the models supposed to update at 8pm??

    1. Cort S. says:

      00 Z is 7 pm EST. That is the time when all the weather observations around the world get ingested into the model, then the model spends time massaging that hodgepodge of data, quality controlling it and making it fit into its grid resolution. And it then spends a few hours calculating the forecast. Usually the results of the model run start to trickle in after 11 pm EST.

      1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

        i thought 00z = 8pm EST?

        1. Cort S. says:

          EDT, in the summer.

    2. Bnoppe says:

      GFS around 1030

      1. about 10:30 is when I start getting data

    3. michael g (SE GR) says:

      NAM around 9, GFS between 10:30 and 11:50.

  13. Cort S. says:

    The HPC is quite a bit more conservative on the snowfall fcst than the snowfall accumulation estimator which is based on the GFS or NAM. Only moderate chances of at least 4 inches:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

    1. Bnoppe says:

      Those are likley based on the afternoon runs with the euro not showing much snow over here

  14. Jim S says:

    00z Nam does not give me much snow. Last storm missed NW …next storm to miss se

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Seriously ticks me off. If I would have known winters were like this here, I would have looked elsewhere,,,

    2. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      can u send me a link??

  15. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    LOL… The 00z NAM might give me an inch Wednesday…might. Muskegon SUCKS for synoptic snowstorms. The only two snowstorms I have experienced here in the past three and a half winters were both in Feb 2011. Good luck to those southeast…..

    Urgh

  16. INDY says:

    Winter Storm Watches Coming Tomoorw!! INDYY…

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      For Detroit. We won’t get anything. Perhaps another stupid inch that melts by 10 a.m.

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        After the midweek storm, I wonder how many states will have at least some sort of snow depth? What a flip flop in the last week and a half!

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Definitely!

  17. Brian(Grandville) says:

    New 0Z NAM is favoring the east side of the state now.

    1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      Can u send me a link please \?

  18. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    The NAM model i am looking at has not updated yet? Can someone please send me a link?

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      This is one that I look at. I can’t copy and paste the other one I view.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It will probably show another inch that melts the next day…then north winds over the weekend that dump LES snow on South Bend…then a rain storm that dumps snow on Gaylord and Midison, WI…..rinse and repeat for the next decade of winters…

  19. ryan says:

    nam shows 12 inches for jackson 2 for grand rapids

  20. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    I think west Michigan will get nailed in the winter by lake effect snow! Besides isn’t that when most of the L.E started last year?

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      Whoops meant January

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Yes, but it was rarely cold enough last winter for any significant lake effect events. Most I received from a lake effect event was 9.5″.

  21. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I see the latest NAM increased snowfall amounts significantly for far SE Michigan, but lowered for western Michigan. On a side note, it is also giving Ft. Wayne an absurd 18″, which we are going there Saturday to watch some indoor racing! Might have to bring the snowmobiles SOUTH to ride them? lol

  22. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    well it looks like I have a chance at some good snow on WED here in Albion

  23. Unless something changes, I think most snow will fall over eastern 1/3 or 1/4 with far southeast lower best bet and then prob for 3-6, with maybe an inch or so on western 1/3 of Lower Michigan

  24. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Our weather person down here said a potential historical Christmas Day blizzard is becoming likely wow I like the sounds of that :)

  25. bnoppe(Albion) says:

    00Z GFS transfers the energy to the east coast alot faster then the last run and puts down 4-6 near the JCK area this is compared to the 12 the NAM puts down, but seeing that we cut the GFS in half and the NAM over does it alot I’ll go with 3-5

  26. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m just not feeling it with this system “I’m mean for our area” Ohio, W. PA, W NY, maybe even far far southeast lower, Yes those areas could see alot of snow, it’s the transfer that worries me, Tomorrows another day and hopefully models tighten up on the track and timing of the transfer or perhaps keep the first low the main low completely.

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      yes I could count 9-12 solid hours before the transfer earlier now it occurs almost right away

  27. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    I wouldn’t worry much, been doing some pretty extensive “tracking” by the models and they are closing in on very tight location or axis of heavy snow. Most if not all of Southwest Lower Michigan is in it, especially if the models keep a slight trend more NW. GFS, NAM and EURO have come into a general agreement so-to-speak and from here on out I could see some “bobbling” in the track, but nothing substantial…

    more later!!

    1. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      I trust the experts at GRR to tell me how much snow I’ll get

  28. Looks like will have to wait until the next storm as the fat lady is now singing…. I just never thought this storm was going to do much for us and the 00z that’s the low even farther southeast and this mornings GFS has shifted well southeast and now bearly grazes southeast lower. Could see a dusting later today however but the Wednesday system is all but dead as expected.

  29. Jackson to Sandusky 2-5, Jackson to Saginaw 2-3, KZoo to Mt Pleasant an inch maybe 2

  30. Monroe to port Huron 4-6

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