White Christmas in OK/AR

December 23rd, 2012 at 10:54 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Click the image to enlarge.  We may not see a very White Christmas here, but it looks like a White Christmas for a large portion of Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Winter Storm Watches/Warnings are out from western Oklahoma to central Indiana.  Here’s the National Watch/Warning Map.  There’s lots of maps here, including US and North American temperatures and wind chills.  It was a warm 84 in McAllen, Texas on Sunday, but central Florida has had 3 consecutive days with highs in the 60s and lows in the low-mid 40s.  The national snow cover analysis from NOAA shows (as I write this Sunday evening) that 46.8% of the Lower 48 states has a snow cover with an average depth of 4″.  That compares to 29.7% on 12/23/11.  It’s also the 3rd highest areal snow cover in the Lower 48 on 12/23 in the last 10 years (highest was 52.5% in 2009).   The Thursday storm was a record-breaker for S. Ste. Marie, Ontario – with 15.2″ of snow.  They’ve had a lot of snow in the mountains out west.  Mt. Baker has a top base of 174″Alta in Utah has had 155″ of snow this winter so farKirkwood Ski Area has had up to 200″ this season.

Model update:  NAM snowfall from Weds. storm.   Snowfall amounts for Weds. PM from the evening run of the NAM (Caribou):  9.8″ Kalamazoo, 8.6″ Pontiac, 8.2″ Jackson, 5.6″ Lansing, 4.3″ Mt. Pleasant, 4″ Holland, 2.1″ Cadillac, 1.7″ Grand Rapids, 1.3″ S. Haven, 0.9″ Holland – I’ve got 1-4″ across the area for the system…highest southeast.   GFS snow totals for Monday:  0.3″ GRR, 0.5″ LAN, KAL, MOP, 0.9″ Jackson.   GFS snow totals for Weds. PM:  1.5″ GRR, 3.9″ LAN, 2.6″ KAL, 4.7″ JXN, 0.9″ Big Rapids, 0.5″ MKG.  GFS for next Saturday:  everyone gets less than an inch, except Ludington 2.5″ with a boost from the lake.   The European model has 1/4 to 1/2″ of snow for G.R. this Monday PM, maybe an inch and a half on Weds. and then a steady diet of snow showers from Friday PM thru the weekend.  It has our 850mb temperature down to -14.4C by Sunday evening.  That’s plenty cold enough for at least lake-effect flurries if not something more substantial.  Looks like a cool end to 2012.   The European shows heavier snow to the southeast of G.R. Weds. PM.  It gives Jackson 0.46″ precip., which would be a solid 5″ of snow.  Lansing and Battle Creek  get 0.31″ or perhaps 3-4″ of snow.  Here’s the GFS 120-hour snowfall total forecast from Earl Barker’s site and the NAM 84-hour forecast.   Here’s HPC’s snowfall forecast maps.   The GRR NWS Discussion has a good handle on this week’s weather.

99 Responses to “White Christmas in OK/AR”

  1. fixxxer says:

    Snow wise so far id say were the same as last winter. But i think its been much colder this year.

    Bah humbug…i mean merry xmas bloggers. ;)

    1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

      First major storm doesn’t go se enough, now this one goes way overboard and goes too far se….The snow is out there, just cant buy a favorable track.

      1. Kevin(Rockford) says:

        didnt really mean to reply, but might as well shout out a Merry Christmas Fixxer!

  2. Jack says:

    A CHRISTmas Wish To EVERYONE…PEACE… CUE: Eagles ~ I wish you peace on Vimeo
    ► 3:44► 3:44
    vimeo.com/32638799
    Nov 24, 2011
    Beautiful song from the Eagles! I found the pictures on … Eagles ~ I wish you peace. Play …

    1. Jack says:

      SORRY Read it For YOURSELF..Peace I wish you peace when the cold winds blow
      Warmed by the fire’s glow
      I wish you comfort in the, the lonely time
      And arms to hold you when you ache inside

      I wish you hope when things are going bad
      Kind words when times are sad
      I wish you shelter from the, the raging wind
      Cooling waters at the fever’s end

      I wish you peace when times are hard
      The light to guide you through the dark
      And when storms are high and your, your dreams are low

      I wish you the strength to let love grow on,
      I wish you the strength to let love flow,

      I wish you peace when times are hard
      A light to guide you through the dark
      And when storms are high and your, you dreams are low
      I wish you the strength to let let grown on,
      I wish you the strength to let love flow,
      I wish you the strength to let love glow on
      I wish you the strength to let love go on.

  3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Well I won’t be here between Weds and Sunday. And it’s Christmas! So see you all next week! Have a Merry Christmas!

  4. Wednesday Snow
    GRR Tr-1
    Mt P 1-2
    Lan 2-3
    Jac 3-5
    Flt 2-4
    Det 3-6

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Wyoming -aka,fixxxer’s mansion:12-18″ ….Indy’s brickyard: 24″ jackPOT!
      I think JB has come out w/ a winter update: expecting 10 degrees below avg for Jan> Feb and most snow OG below 40N won’t MELT til July 4th!~ ciao

      & MERRY CHRISTMAS!~

      1. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

        Better lay off of the eggnog.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Would that be PUI? Posting Under the Influence?

  5. Love to see the track west and delay the transfer but not feeling it.

  6. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

    I’ll be curious how much snow will have fallen in GR for the 2012 calendar year after the new year hits. I know we had very little snow around here after the 1st of the year, and with the lack of snow so far this Fall/Winter, I’m curious how little we have had, and where that would rank versus other years.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Hey, I am away currently…just wondering, how much, if any, snow is on the ground there?

      1. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

        More or less just a dusting. Maybe an inch at best.

  7. michael g (SE GR) says:

    GR won’t get 1″ between now and Friday. No matter what the Odor Goon says.

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I see that none of the models are trending to the NW. Just mark down another storm that will miss the Grand Rapids area. This is getting real old, real fast! It is getting to the point that good system snows are a rare event around here. I queses our only hope may be some Alberta clippers or lake effect. I am still holding out hope of snow by the end of this year and a very cold and snowy January, however the longer we get into the season without an ACTUAL SNOWSTORM the harder it is going to be to stay positive about this winter!!!

    1. Slimjim says:

      I am sure it will snow here.again just not sure when.
      Slimjim

      1. fixxxer says:

        Next winter? ;)

        1. Mr. Negative says:

          Fingers crossed…

    2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      I know right! I’m not a fan of winter but I DO enjoy a good snowstorm (as long as the snow doesn’t stick on the ground TOO long) but this year had been a horrible year for snow! We need some back to back snowstorms over the next couple weeks to make up for our snow deficit!

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Yup, unreal how CRAPPY the pattern has been since I pretty much moved to the area. SOOOOOO old….

  9. Slimjim says:

    Looks like there will be a good amount of snow all around the west Michigan area but very little to none here! We will be leaving tomorrow morning will drop a line now and then.
    Slimjim

  10. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Well, as of right now, most of my yard is covered in snow (only an inch or so), hopefully it stays that way through Christmas. Then it can melt :) .

    Merry Christmas Bloggers!

  11. Kimoeagle says:

    Well, it appears that we will be looking at a white Boxing Day in NE Indiana and NW Ohio. Here’s what IWX NWS has to say:
    SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
    WEDNESDAY MORNING…BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES ON
    WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
    POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION…NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
    MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY…WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
    and in the discussion, “DESPITE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO EXACT TRACK WITH UPPER TROUGH JUST NOW REACHING WESTERN CONUS COAST…HAVE
    OPTED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE TUESDAY
    NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FOR BROADBRUSH 4 TO 7 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH
    WINDS ALSO TO BECOME GUSTY INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ON WEDNESDAY
    ADDING TO POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
    They’re “painting” the storm as coming SW to NE direction, so GRR will miss it. However, it appears that Coldwater and SE MI will get this as well.
    Ho, ho, ho. I am not looking forward to driving son back to SBN on Wednesday. But, the Tollway should be all right, hopefully.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, basically there are SNOWSTORMS and snow on the ground everywhere except the GGR area! Horrible winter so far!!

  12. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Nice storm for SE Mich it looks like!

    With those considerations and using GFS/UKMET/Euro output in the equation as well, expecting a 3 to 5 inch snowfall across most of southeast Michigan, with half a foot coming in and around Monroe-detroit to the eastern Thumb region.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      ENJOY! The GGR area is currently SNOW straved with SNOW virtually every where else including the OH valley, New England, upstate NY, Northern Lower MI and the rest of the Midwest for that matter! So enjoy your snow and I hope that you get hammered!

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I will take it :)

  13. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Looks like the Holland/Zeeland area will get zilch.

  14. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Figures it won’t snow here in Holland. This is my first winter here. I’ve heard the Holland often gets dumped on, so I went out and soent $800 on a very nice snow blower. It reminds me of washing your car during a drought. It rains within 24 hours :-)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      My sister and I are debating which of us will “win”: Hubby and I bought snowmobiles – so that ought to void winter for sure. However – my sister is coming back to Michigan from California in mid-January. As she left 10 years ago, she said she’d “never shovel that *bleep* snow again”. So doesn’t that almost guarantee a blizzard??? ;-)

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Hey Ned. Where did you move from? I moved here from PA four years ago, looking forward to WINTER… I have only experienced one somewhat good winter…2011-2012. All the others have been just like my winters in southeastern PA….waiting and waiting for snow…watching it miss to the south or being on the stupid rain/snow line. I did not expect to deal with as much of the same crap here. Plus, the winds have sucked the past several winters, barely giving us any snow off the lake. Yes, I am complaining…….ticked that we just can’t seem to break out of being in the CRAP ZONE

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        If you enjoy the winter weather, it doesn’t get much worse than this. You should’ve been here for 07/08, and 08/09.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Seriously…even the dreaded winters I hated in southeast PA were better than the ones I have experienced here. Very disappointing.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Correction…. 2010-2011 was the only decent one…and we had to wait til January to get any snow that winter too! Ridiculous.

  15. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    “The Holland Area” My bad.

  16. Bnoppe says:

    I’m thinking Calhoun up to 96 and east to Detoroit ends up with a watch by this afrernoon

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      18z and 00z models will be the fate of us.

      80% sampled by the 18z and 100% sampled by the 00z suit…

      Read a few AFD’s south of us and in a nutshell they said the models are trending back SE and will continue to do so to meet up with the final track once the storm is fully sampled.

      One of these days guys… one of these days we will get our “snowstorm”! Hold tight!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I love how the southeast trend couldn’t work out for us LAST WEEK….it only works when we are northwest of the low…

        1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

          Haha isn’t that the truth…

      2. One of these days the Lions might win the superbowl, don’t hold your breath

  17. Nathan says:

    Merry Xmas Eve everyone!!

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      Merry Christmas Eve to you too Nathan!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      You too, Nathan! Have a good Christmas Break!

  18. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Not impressed by the overnight models :/

    1-2″ West and North of I-69. Winter Weather Advisory at best East of us because all the models show the transfer earlier and faster.

    1-2″ at this point may be pushing it…

  19. INDY says:

    I really like checking 8′s 8 day forcast for the last 3 weeks they had snow on it for Grand rapids but we have none on the ground maybe santa will bring us some tonight!! Theeee party has started 11th annual drink ahh thon for kids 2pm at Charleys pub and grub come on out have a xmas sprite with INDY and the gange!! Happy xmas eve bill’s best!!! Stay Tuned INDYY…….

  20. Tom (Wyoming) says:

    I know all of us snow lovers are a little down on the lack of snow thus far this year, and fear this will be a repeat of last year. I on the other hand do not believe that is the case. Unlike last year we actually have cold air in place and several storms have just missed us. We may not hit our average of 70″+, but with the lake still relatively warm, and two and half more months of winter we should still get a healthy amount of snow. Probably in the range of 50″-60″. So, everyone have a merry Christmas, and continue to look forward to that first real storm of the season.

  21. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Oh, just a head’s up that the GGEM and GFS now both show the low this weekend falling apart as it comes towards us and a new low forms down south stealing more moisture from us. I scream on the inside more and more with each model run. Maybe we can get something in April…

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I have a 5 yr old granddaughter who’s going to receive a snow scooter for Christmas. Who woulda thunk, a month ago, that she wouldn’t get to play with it???

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Aww…go try it out on a sand dune? Lol

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      2.6″ in GR? No way.

    2. bnoppe(Albion) says:

      where are they gettting these amounts a dart board

  22. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

    Of course we cold enough air to support a heavy snowfall, but the storm system goes south, of course!!!

  23. fixxxer says:

    Merry green xmas!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      I got you a finger for Christmas fizz.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Your response has made my day. ;)

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        LOL!!!

      3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        LOL…. You are so blunt, Michael g…

      4. big Daddy BC says:

        Careful, Fix. Never know where that finger’s been, but I could guess.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          On the mouse button, clicking and trying to find a thunderstorm for fixxxy. That would be my appropriate guess. :)

  24. They’re calling for 12-18″ here for wed afternoon and night. Winter Storm Watches here by noon tomorrow!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      You are such a meanie!! LOL!!!! Here we are, starved for snow, and you’re not sharing even an inch??? ;-)

  25. Mr. Negative says:

    Two GREAT winters in a row…couldn’t have hoped for a better present

    Merry Christmas everyone -

  26. Cliff (Scotts) says:

    Might be a white Christmas for Kalamazoo snowing pretty good

  27. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    I’ll be there tomorrow afternoon. That radar blob over the Kzoo area is rather odd, as it’s separate from any other precipitation. But it’s dark blue in spots, hence the moderate/heavy snow.

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      My comment was a response to Cliff, btw.

      1. Cliff (Scotts) says:

        It’s still snowing here but sadly still can see grass.

  28. Mike Geukes says:

    Grand Rapids

    Season snowfall is 2.7 inches
    Through this date, on average should have 23.6 inches
    We are 20.9 inches below normal for snow this season.

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Truly something to be thankful for on this chrithmeth eve. Nothing beats a brown and green chrithmeth!

      1. John (Holland) says:

        Why do you always say “chrithmeth”?

        1. WhatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

          Thats how his daughter says it. I always laugh because one of my little girls used to say it that way. No need to pounce here.

        2. John (Holland) says:

          Not pouncing, just wondering.

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Actually, I think he does it because several on here found it offensive. He originally did it because he thought it was funny how his daughter says it….several people asked him to stop, but he will not respect their wishes. Oh well…I know Christ is the reason for the season…that is what matters most.

          Merry Christmas, Barry, and everybody else!

        4. Cort S. says:

          I don’t think anyone asked him to stop. Some random person just blew up at him out of nowhere one day.

        5. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

          Cort, your memory serves you well. Merry Crithmeth.

  29. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Still snowing but lightening up here. Been snowing for 25 minutes or so. Kind of strange as that pocket of snow just popped up in a matter of minutes. Nice though as it helped to partially cover the patches or grass that are showing in the yard. Now if only one popped up in GR… Sounds like u guys need it even more than we do down here near kalamazoo.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      The Grand Rapids to Holland to Muskegon area is the Bermuda Triangle of snow. It is where snow goes to disappear.

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        Matt you will get you’re snow eventually and do not forget you live in the lake effect snow belt area so generally you receive way more snow than the eastern side of the sate does!

  30. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Snow just stopped in Marshall. About a 1/2 inch accumulation. Blizzard watch now in effect for parts of Illinois and Kentucky.

  31. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Just to show how bad this winter has been so far…

    Seasonal snowfall up to this date:
    12/24/11: 9.5″
    12/24/12: 1.1″

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I think what’s so hard to take we’re all the promises that it “couldn’t be any worse than last winter”… BAHAHAHA…..what a smack in the face. I know I need to watch my attitude, but eternal optimists drive me nuts sometimes… “It will come some time….” they shall say.

      1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        You better watch out
        You better not cry
        You better not pout
        I’m telling you why
        Santa Claus is coming to town
        Santa Claus is coming to town
        Santa Claus is coming to town

        For you Matt haha LMAO be careful! jk!

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          :P

  32. Ben (Charlotte) says:

    Still snowing lightly here, have probably received a 1/2 inch this afternoon with this little squall. Combined with the inch or two we got last Friday (which partially melted), most of the grass is covered here. White Christmas!

  33. Slimjim says:

    Highs in the low to mid 70′s and lows in uoper 40′s to low 50′s that is the forecast. For wh ere we are going so while you guys. Are trying to find the snow we will be playing golf in short sleeves
    All in all not looking all that good for a white new year in GR either! Heck it may still be green when we get. Back on Jan 7
    Slimjim

    1. Jeff (S.E. Ionia County) says:

      Nice, have a great time Slimjim !

  34. jake says:

    Extremely icy in BC and dowling, saw 2 in ditch on 66 already

  35. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Getting some heavy snow here right now. Probably half inch already with big flakes. We’ll probably get 1″ when all is said and done.

    On top of the dusting we already had, it’s looking like an official white Christmas here with 3-5″ on the way Wednesday!

  36. Mike says:

    Nothing here on the ground in Berrien county so far. Hopefully we can pick up a few inches Wednesday, & some more lake effect by the weekend. If we can get temps to stay cold, we can at least be able to build up a decent snowpack over the next 1-2 weeks. (Crossing my fingers.)

  37. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I have some good news and some bad news: first the bad news – the GGR area is in a SEVERE SNOW DROUGHT! Now for the good news – celebrate; it is Christmas eve. I hope that you all have a great CHRISTMAS. Also a shout out to Mr. Bill – thanks for sponsoring this weather blog. It is appreciated!

    1. Jack says:

      Merry Christmas ROCKY,ROCK N ROLL…..a Christmas CUE for YOU !!! Chuck Berry – Run Rudolph Run (1958) – YouTube
      ► 2:39► 2:39
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVu4c7dhDRE
      Dec 23, 2009 – Uploaded by TheChristmasforever
      Uploaded on Dec 22, 2009. Chuck Berry – Run Rudolph Run (1958). Category. Music. License …

  38. arcturus says:

    Skilling: 3rd least snowy winter in 128 years so far for Chicago.

  39. SBPortage002 says:

    Just got back from visiting family in Plainwell to find a nice covering of snow on the ground here in Portage. Probably a half inch but a nice sight for Christmas Eve (no snow on the ground in Plainwell). Merry Christmas bloggers.

  40. GunLakeDeb says:

    Merry Christmas everyone!! I was hoping to ride the snowmobiles to our son’s house in Caledonia tomorrow….oh well……. I’m afraid St Nick will need wheels on the ol’ sleigh tonight?

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      You have a great Christmas too, Deb!

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