White Christmas in OK/ARDecember 23rd, 2012 at 10:54 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click the image to enlarge. We may not see a very White Christmas here, but it looks like a White Christmas for a large portion of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Winter Storm Watches/Warnings are out from western Oklahoma to central Indiana. Here’s the National Watch/Warning Map. There’s lots of maps here, including US and North American temperatures and wind chills. It was a warm 84 in McAllen, Texas on Sunday, but central Florida has had 3 consecutive days with highs in the 60s and lows in the low-mid 40s. The national snow cover analysis from NOAA shows (as I write this Sunday evening) that 46.8% of the Lower 48 states has a snow cover with an average depth of 4″. That compares to 29.7% on 12/23/11. It’s also the 3rd highest areal snow cover in the Lower 48 on 12/23 in the last 10 years (highest was 52.5% in 2009). The Thursday storm was a record-breaker for S. Ste. Marie, Ontario – with 15.2″ of snow. They’ve had a lot of snow in the mountains out west. Mt. Baker has a top base of 174″. Alta in Utah has had 155″ of snow this winter so far. Kirkwood Ski Area has had up to 200″ this season.
Model update: NAM snowfall from Weds. storm. Snowfall amounts for Weds. PM from the evening run of the NAM (Caribou): 9.8″ Kalamazoo, 8.6″ Pontiac, 8.2″ Jackson, 5.6″ Lansing, 4.3″ Mt. Pleasant, 4″ Holland, 2.1″ Cadillac, 1.7″ Grand Rapids, 1.3″ S. Haven, 0.9″ Holland – I’ve got 1-4″ across the area for the system…highest southeast. GFS snow totals for Monday: 0.3″ GRR, 0.5″ LAN, KAL, MOP, 0.9″ Jackson. GFS snow totals for Weds. PM: 1.5″ GRR, 3.9″ LAN, 2.6″ KAL, 4.7″ JXN, 0.9″ Big Rapids, 0.5″ MKG. GFS for next Saturday: everyone gets less than an inch, except Ludington 2.5″ with a boost from the lake. The European model has 1/4 to 1/2″ of snow for G.R. this Monday PM, maybe an inch and a half on Weds. and then a steady diet of snow showers from Friday PM thru the weekend. It has our 850mb temperature down to -14.4C by Sunday evening. That’s plenty cold enough for at least lake-effect flurries if not something more substantial. Looks like a cool end to 2012. The European shows heavier snow to the southeast of G.R. Weds. PM. It gives Jackson 0.46″ precip., which would be a solid 5″ of snow. Lansing and Battle Creek get 0.31″ or perhaps 3-4″ of snow. Here’s the GFS 120-hour snowfall total forecast from Earl Barker’s site and the NAM 84-hour forecast. Here’s HPC’s snowfall forecast maps. The GRR NWS Discussion has a good handle on this week’s weather.