Winter Weather Advisory Dropped
December 27th, 2012 at 9:48 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The National Weather Service has dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area. The morning run of the NAM (Caribou) shows just a dusting. It is snowing at my house at 12:30, but the flakes are so small and few that it could snow like this for a week and not accumulate an inch. Light winds today are making it a rather comfortable day to be outdoors. The GFS does give G.R. a temperature of zero on the morning of 1/4. That’s 2 runs in a row of the GFS with some Arctic cold around 1/4. The European is in now. It gives Grand Rapids 0.10″ of precipitation…that’s maybe an inch and a half. The European is right with the GFS on the cold shot for 1/3-1/5. It has the temperature in G.R. down to 9.5F Thursday evening the 3rd and the 850mb temperature at -18.5 (or -1.3F). Depending on the usual factors (wind direction, wind speed, overall moisture content of the atmosphere, cyclonic curvature, etc.) we could get some hefty lake-effect snow out of air that cold.
Snowfall from the Weds. system: 14″ Rochester NY, 15″ Montreal, Canada, 12″ Bradford PA, 11″ Chagrin Falls OH, Port Huron MI and Burlington VT. The storm produced wind gusts of 74 mph at Blue Hill MA and 70 mph at Eaton Neck NY. GRR is still +6.7 degrees above average for December thru Thursday.
Boy that sounds scary Bill….1 to 3 inches…incredible! Happy New Year from L’Anse, MI….where it REALLY SNOWS! lol
I’m surprised it’s not a Warning! LOL
All right, Sharon, I will join in the fun! We have a house on Lake Superior at Whitefish Point. In a good winter, It might snow 12-15 inches….day after day after day! Come on up all of you trolls and play in the snow!
Great, now we’re not going to get that much snow. Felt nice to get the snowmobile out today to get it ready for when we have enough snow to ride. The ground was nice and frozen so it should be pretty good riding conditions when we do get the snow.
I’m jealous!! My new snowmobile wants to go outside to play – but I’ve been reluctant to try to drive it across the gravel parking lot until there’s a protective base of snow…..
That’s the benefit of having a big yard, and fields behind our house…we get to ride more often!
Finally! Winter!!
Hasnt happened yet so dont hold your breath.
Every little bit helps!
Helps what?
You enjoy your misery you dolt!!
My schadenfreude for you, fixxxer
I was enjoying the lack of snow. I guess it is time to get used to Old Man Winter.
REALLY?? For 1-3 inches??? Now we will get nothing…. or maybe, just maybe a bit more then that!
It’s just issued for roads not snow amounts
I have only lived in MI ( Im from San Diego) for 6 years…… I think 3” is pretty easy to deal with….. just look at the roadd in front of you! but wait……. to many blind morons these days on the road!
My plow might actually make some money???
At PADNOS Scrap yard maybe.
That was funny.
Hahaha now that made me lol
It is true…just checked out the latest NAM and it looks like CRAP for snow……
Nam is suckish!
Jordan tell you that?
ya since the NAM gave gr less than an inch for the snow yesterday and they ended up with 3.5….higher than some of the counties around jackson that were forecast to get 6+…just saying!
Matt…I am tired off being s**t on. No CRAP please.
Well, two advisories in a weeks time ? Wow, must be old man winter is looking to stay awhile.
think i will get out and mow the lawn one more time tomorrow seeing how its pretty green here….or I guess you could call it “earth tones” or brown with a bit of green mixed in…..lol
Lol…is this the worst you have seen it in Muskegon and area getting missed?
Matt you have a chance a getting significant lake effect snow accumulations next Wednesday-Thursday that might make up for lost snow you think?
yea for sure the worst ive seen, Now I HAVE seen may winters where “winter” did not start till around the first of the year but last year was just a joke….and now so far this year….well I always “hope” that we have till say mid March (or later) for winter to last…..but again judging by last 2 winters after Feb 25th its pretty much over (basically 2 months from now)……….so I will keep hoping…all I can do.
I planted grass 3 weeks ago and its already about 3” tall! In December!!
My grass is growing too!
Hey… you you had a crappy winter when the kids are playin in the new grass for Christmas!! But the Snow will fall and I will take my snowboard on the roof this winter!!
Yeah!! Finally we are in an advisory!! Amazing what gets us excited these days!!
Old timers knew that last winter was a “once in a generation winter”. Winter is here to stay, as those who know better, knew better. Wishes granted…frozen, and snow covered through April.
Knowing our luck through june.
Funny, the NWS seems to be going against the HPC and models on this by calling for 1-3″/2-4″ event. The forecast discussion talks about having all the elements needed, but it still seems like a long shot or they’re being overcautious. Even Bill points out the NAM predictions. Any thoughts fellow weather geeks?
HPC days 1-3: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&ftype=probabilities
forecast discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
With yesterdays storm, I was suppose to get about 1 inch. I got closer to 3. So who knows, weather is so tricky to predict, especially in our area. I also drove to Battle Creek today for work, and they had no more than I have here, when they were expected to get more down there.
Ive learned many times its the “oh maybe 1-3″ or “minor accumulations” that turn into some of the biggest storms…..
I hate this time of year. I hope we get nothing.
Hey Fixxer, do you have facebook ?
Yes, but he hates it. It is also hard on his wrist.
Brian 3 days of lk snow coming Tue,Wed and Thur With a NW flow South Bend to South Haven will get the most Inland to Kazoo Tell your wife to drive slow with a sprite in one hand and the other on the wheel she will be fine take 94 east to 131 north to Lansing your best snow free drive!!! Going to get cold mid 20′s for highs!! STAY TUNED INDYY…..
NATURES CHEERLEADER…….INDY!!!!!!!
Go to http://www.indybastardi.com for updates.
I have to drive up to Canadian Lakes tomorrow night for business, not looking forward to the drive there and back in the snow
Prayers Your Way Katie for Safe Travel !!
They’ll keep the highways salted – Lord knows they ought to have monstrous stockpiles of salt after last year….LOL!! Hope you don’t own a black car, though…
Looks like less than 1″ of snow. NWS talking about dropping the advisory. The next couple systems go south of us, so more snow for southern In and Ohio. I guess our only shot for snow will be the lake effect.
Was just up in the Kalkaska area SNOWMOBILING! They have a good foot of snow on the ground! Could it be that the SW MI SNOW drought is in the process of coming to an end? The three inches from Wednesday is a good start and now a couple more inches? Could it be? The 6Z RDB model shows 2.2 inches of SNOW for GR!
Thee are lots of single digit temp over here this morning. Port Huron is 3 right now… 13 here.
Still only 16 at 9am. Brrr…
Channel 17′s Jon Shaner says most of the snow will miss us to the north. We’ll see.
He is 100% wrong.
Well Kirkwood and Offseyer are now saying the same thing at noon.
Anyone have a link to a good site to look at model output other than the NCEP site?
This might help you Michael with what your looking for. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2VZrpTCHBM
Wunderground offers model maps
Wow we have had more snow this winter already then last winter so enjoy the good stuff get outside and play !!!!!! 3-5 inches coming tonight 1-3 Tue 3-5 on Wed and Thur 2-3 inches with wind by next weeknd West Michigan will have over a foot of snow on the ground with cold temps going to be a good winter!!!GET THE SPRITES OUT AND RING DING THE NEAR YEAR IN WITH SNOW!!INDYY…
Hoping that snow around Chicago continues to head this way! Thinking there will be less 3 and 4″ amounts, but probably a lot of solid 2″ amounts throughout the area. Just gotta keep adding to the snowcover little by little. Looking at next weeks cold air and LES potential, I think that Grand Haven through Holland down into Saugatuck South Haven and Benton Harbor could be burried with Lake Effect by next weekend.
Everyone along and west of 131 has a decent shot next week at significant snow but you’re right that’s probably where the best of the snow will be I’m thinking 12-18″ along the lakeshore and 4-12″ west of 131
I hope you’re right! I hate this “maybe maybe not” snow routine… I just want a solid layer already. haha…. hopefully after next week that will become a reality. (then I will be sick of the snow and will want it all to melt but hey…. that’s what the 4 seasons are for right?
)
First time blogger, long time reader! You guys are great and make me laugh, love reading your synopsis’s of the weather. I love the snow for one reason, snowmobiling! What is the best site for viewing weather models and which model seems to be the most accurate?
Welcome to the blog Scoot. Bill seems to lean toward the GFS and European models I believe. As for accurate? Nothing compares to intuition. Everything seems to be 50/50 if you ask me.
I hope its a heck of alot colder from now through March and this March we won’t see that hot crap from last year. I’m just now feeling comfortable after 9 months of constant heat/dry/sunny weather. Bring on the blizzards, warnings and heaps of snow, oh and the sprites too.
Advisory last Friday and we get an inch. NO advisory on Wednesday and we get 3″. Advisory today that starts at 1PM, and at 10AM the roads are already covered. Hmmm…
Haha, Brad! I was just saying the same thing to my hubby ! maybe we will get that 3″ instead of 1″ with it starting a few hours earlier than thought!
It seems like there should be a winter storm watch or warning over in eastern Wi doesn’t it?
doesn’t appear to me this will amount to very much for us thankfully.
Right .Lets not spoil fisssters day.
Looks like the advisory has been cancelled for us. I don’t see it on the NWS watch/warning map anymore.
snowing like crazy here, started about 9:30 a.m.
and the advisory doesn’t start until 1PM.
From the ‘other guys’…”The NWS has decided to cancel the winter weather advisory for the region. Snow has begun earlier than anticipated so impacts on the afternoon and evening commutes won’t be as great. Additionally, snowfall rates won’t be as high as we had previously thought.”
I hate to be negative, but the NWS’s performance over the last few years has been embarrassing. Most of Kent County gets 2 to 4 inches of snow during rush hour (with strong winds) to boot, and there was never an advisory, even after it was obvious the Low tracked further northward. The roads were brutal at the time. Then they actually decide to issue a WWA today, only to cancel it because the snow arrived earlier than expected. Please note that I’m in Kzoo right now, and it’s been coming down pretty good for 2 hours. These miscalculations have been occurring quite frequently for the past couple of winters. I’m at a point where I don’t take any of their predictions very seriously anymore.
Diarrhea is more reliable than the NWS. Lol.
Sooooo true.
that’s because they fail to learn the weather is pretty unpredictable the past few years. it’s also called hype which the media loves.
Thanks Ryan! I guess we’ll just have to see what happens!
The NWS is up to their trick again. What a joke! Look at the radar – the snow is heading right towards GR and they decide to cancel the WWA? GR get ready for 2 to 3 inches of snow and slippery driving conditions! The models, just throw them out the window. GARBAGE IN = GARBAGE OUT!
Well it is snowing here but it is super light
well… I was driving around in Portage (west of K-zoo) and the roads are fairly slick. It was slow going. No collisions however. Just take it easy driving… don’t be the person who got their car stuck in the ditch on the side of the road… (if you already are that person, I don’t really know what to say to you…)
Fizzer a nother day off ohhh thats right u don’t work!!! Dont get so dizz fizz!!! INDYY..
i probably made more off my settlement than you do in 4 years at meijers so push some more carts.
why the heck do you care if i work?
off the state of Michigan’s hard workers yeea the bridge card!! Your a joke!!! INDYY…
Wouldn’t it be great if you two where neighbors and didn’t know it? Then boom, you realize it. LOL.
You know Indy, there are a ton of people who work who have a bridge card. Just tossing that out there in defense of everyone in that position.
LOL…SO TRUE!!
You work at meijers Indy?
Nope …….
@scott (west olive) haha that would be awesome
So ignorant that he actually doesn’t realize there is no pride in living off of a “settlement”.
and a IDIOT….INDYY…
I do Bowman. Anyone with even a shred of self respect would not admit to a “settlement”. And then say he is going to Hawaii? Shameless.
Despite no advisory, so has been coming down at 1/2″ an hour for the last 1.5 hours here in holland.
I am on the east side of Holland, and I’d say this barely qualifies as light snow. More like heavy flurries.
um…..light snow in Holland, just a dusting, not even 1/8 inch
Obviously two very different sides of Holland
My cousin in Ann Arbor says its really coming down there she said they have had an additional 1/2-1″ of snow
I’m looking at the radar and there is no snow falling right now in ann arbor, if anything it is super light snow like we are getting in GR.
It was there is no snow right now though
Wundermap shows it snowing in ann arbor.
Yeah, well they said less than an inch on Wed. also and we got over 3″! The radar looks like we may get more than what they are saying, we’ll see after it gets over the lake.
let it snow let it snow let it snow!!! love winter!!! INDYY…
Snowing at a pretty good clip here now for about 3 hours. Definately gonna have to shovel.
Light snow falling now in Greenville.
Nice winter wonderland here in southern Berrien county this morning. Prolly about another inch or 2 with 3-4 on the ground. Hopefully some more lake effect by tomorrow and somewhat colder temps too. This 30-32 degree stuff still allows some melting to take place during the daytime. I’m still hoping for that arctic blast and significant lake effect by mid to late week, even though I have to say that the models have been flip flopping like crazy lately…… including the “almighty” ECMWF model. So I can’t help but being somewhat skeptical of the long term pattern. But I’ll hope for the best though in terms of snow.
Nothing more than a dusting here along the lakeshore. I can’t believe we were under an advisory for a 1-3″ event to begin with and then to miss it as bad as they did. Its almost comical at this point.
There’s no advisory anymore
Hence the word “were”.
The snow is starting to break up. That figures – another bust is on the way? I am still not convinced that we are out of our NO SNOW PATTERN yet? The 3 inches on Wednesday was nice however!
We can’t be in a no snow pattern if it’s snowing.
barely
I see that..Like I said. I can’t believe we WERE under an advisory.
Sorry, that was supposed to be a reply to Deb.
Why? They were advising people that it was going to snow and it could impact road conditions. An advisory is basically there to tell people some amount of snow is coming and it will have more impact than zero.
That people equate an advisory with really bad weather is a failure of understanding, not hype by the NWS.
Typically advisories in west Michigan are issued for snow in excess of 4″, warnings for snow in excess of 6″ in 12 hours, or 8″ in 24 hours, however, they seem to throw those rules out whenever the spirit moves them.
In this case, they were feeling the heat for NOT issuing an advisory on Wednesday, when the roads were a mess, so they jumped the gun today. I’d be willing to bet that if there had been no snow of Wednesday, there would not have been an advisory today.
I’m sorry I didn’t see the word were I’m terribly sorry about that lol!
WOW!!!! THE SUN IS OUT…….1-3 inches? NOT EVEN A DUSTING !!!!!
So…. when exactly are we getting that 1-3?
I would much rather have a warning of the possibility of bad weather or bad roads EVEN if it changes. I think that our guys do a fine job and that weather predictions are getting more complicated with all of the challenging weather we’ve had a last few years.
I welcome an advisory before I set out to travel, even if it is wrong.
I welcome a watch or warning, even if the storm goes around me.
Keep up the good work NWS and WOOD TV. I know you all do your best to keep us informed in all situations.
My last line should have said I know you do your best to keep us informed and SAFE in all situations.