Weekend

January 5th, 2013 at 6:32 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    Sunday AM – Happy Birthday to my sister in TN.  Snowfall Saturday evening:  1.2″ G.R. – we’re up to 9″ for the season…still behind Little Rock AR.  Battle Creek and Lansing also reported about an inch…less in Muskegon where there was some rain mixed in.   The overnight run of the European model has over 1/2″ of rain Friday/Saturday with temperatures up to 50 Friday evening.  The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation go negative and it looks much colder around the 14th-21st.   For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. You can check out the S. Haven Lighthouse, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station by the Holland Channel, the Muskegon beach (when the wind is in knots – kts. – multiply by 1.15 to get mph), and the beach at Michigan City, Indiana. Snow cover as of 12/28 AM: 12″ Grand Marais, 14″ Marquette, 14″ Gaylord, 10″ S. Ste. Marie, 7″ Cadillac, 6″ Lake City, 4″Alpena, Houghton Lake and Baldwin, 2″ near Big Rapids, Lansing, Grandville and the Ford Airport in G.R. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s a few pictures of the last snowstorm.

154 Responses to “Weekend”

  1. INDY says:

    Hey uncle Jack I do mis some of u !! Great song thanks ….INDYY…

    1. Jack says:

      Another Cue,Coming Your..ENOY..New Riders of the Purple Sage – Whiskey – YouTube
      ► 3:34► 3:34
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgeUmlu6k5g
      Sep 28, 2008 – Uploaded by Basie369
      New Riders of the Purple Sage – Whiskey (1972) of the album Gypsy Cowboy (c) gos to New …

  2. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Coldest run of the GFS in at least a couple of years. Here’s a sample..

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_324_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Yeah, it has highs in the below zero category! I’m sure that will moderate some… http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmkg

      By the way, there hasn’t really been a major cold outbreak since I moved here four years ago….I know some of it depends on wind direction, but is it to be expected to get atleast some lake effect during such major cold outbreaks?

  3. Nathan says:

    NAO goes very negative and stratosfiric heating is occurring. A cold outbreak is possible sometime within the next couple weeks! Get ready for some cold and snow for the second half of winter!!

  4. kevin. w says:

    I see some of the models updating this evening are now making the AO and NAO not as negatively strong and the PNA is going more neutral, so a glancing blow of arctic air coming and not as strong as once thought. Will see but I hope not.

  5. kevin. w says:

    Just looked over the MJO and it goes from strong phase 4/5/6 (warm side) to more of neutral phase 1/2 so that might be our sign of a not intense cold outbreak. New runs at 14z Monday so will see what all the teleconnections come out at around that time.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No surprise here. This has been happening all season so far. By the middle of next week the models will probably not even have any arctic air hitting SW Lower MI! Many people on here never learn – they just keep falling for the same garbage long range inaccurate model information over and over and over again! Simply amazing!!

      1. arcturus says:

        Falling just like you. That ‘blizzard week’ you forecasted looms, and it appears temps will break 50 during it. Great call, that makes 0 – 3 for the season. My suggestion: take your meds so you won’t get so worked up.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Thanks for playing and for listening. Keep up the good work!

  6. Kimoeagle says:

    Bill, I noticed your comment: ” The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation go negative and it looks much colder around the 14th-21st.”
    And so, I promptly Googled to decipher this. One question right now: Do the aforementioned oscillations vary in frequency of variance, or do they reflect an overall trend?

  7. arcturus says:

    Yes, just another new normal January shaping up. Nothing newsworthy, that’s how its been and is going to be. What would make news is a month similar to the old normal. Not happening though.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes, above average temperatures for January and the arctic air that everyone is HYPED up about probably won’t happen!

  8. GunLakeDeb says:

    Clearly, we’re in a “dry trend”. What worries me is that several threads ago, someone posted a link to the years with the least amount of snow – and something that caught my eye was that an entire DECADE roughly (1900 to 1910) was pretty consistently snowless with totals below 30″ for the season. I’m praying that we don’t have another cycle like THAT.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      They did not have any idea how to measure snow back then and I am sure the record keeping was shabby at best!

    2. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      I saw that as well… In the same post was 2000-2009 which had some of the snowiest years ever. So, I predict the decade from 2100-2109 will be a very snowless pattern and we should see an uptick in snowfall from 2200-2209.

      1. Me :-) says:

        We will see :-)

  9. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    Muskegon snowfall totals since 2000

    2000/2001 88.4
    2001/2002 51.2
    2002/2003 56.5
    2003/2004 65.7
    2004/2005 91.1
    2005/2006 74.1
    2006/2007 86.8
    2007/2008 110.3
    2008/2009 148.2
    2009/2010 73.6

    I am not drawing any kind of conclusions. Just for something to talk about.

    Some other interesting years..

    1977/1978 164.8 Year of the 78 Blizzard

    1981/1982 173.9 Record snowfall in Muskegon for one year.
    1982/1983 35.0 Least amount I could find.
    Interesting on how the least amount of snow came one year after the most.

    Although most of the early 1900s were very lean on snow.

  10. big Daddy BC says:

    The temperature differences between years are usually measured in fractions of a degree, but last year’s 55.3 degree average demolished the previous record, set in 1998, by a full degree Fahrenheit.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/science/earth/2012-was-hottest-year-ever-in-us.html

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      2012 was the 9th warmest year globally since satellite IR data became available in 1979: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/2012-lt-anomaly.png (University of Alabama anomaly map – they rock in football and in climate). It was the warmest year (adjusted data) for the continental U.S. (it was a cold year for Alaska).

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