Weekend
January 5th, 2013 at 2:46 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The picture here is tubing at Pando (just NE of G.R.). We’ll start Saturday with some sun, then clouds move up from the southwest with a good chance of light snow or a mix in the evening and overnight. If all snow, maybe an inch average across the area. Temperatures should be in the low 30s much of Saturday night, warm enough that expressways and heavily-traveled roads may just be wet, but watch for an icy spot on a sidewalk, parking lot, side street or lesser-traveled rural road. I’ll put up a radar thread late Saturday. The GRR NWS discussion is a good one. 12Z Saturday models say anywhere from a dusting to 1.5″ of snow, some of which will melt as it falls with the temperature close to 32 degrees. They say a little rain could mix in. It also has rain next Thurs. and Friday. The GFS Caribou is lost in the ozone and has no precip. next week. The European is consistent with rain Thurs./Friday, so go with that and maybe an inch of rain, a good soaking…then colder the following week. Looks like low-mid 40s at least Thurs. and Fri. next week.
I won’t do a separate sports thread but we have the big game Monday Night between Notre Dame and Alabama. Brian Kelly has rocked the house wherever he’s gone and win or lose, this has been an incredible year for Notre Dame. Other College games: 1 PM Sat. Pittsburgh and Ole Miss and 9 pm Sun. we have Kent State and Arkansas State. The NCAA games are all on ESPN. The Saturday NFL games are on NBC (WOOD-TV). AT 4:30 PM we have Cincinnati at Houston and at 8 PM, it’s the Viking and Packers in Green Bay. Sunday, the 1 PM game is Indy (as Luck would have it) and Baltimore on CBS and the 4:30 game is Seattle and Russell Wilson against Washington. I should also mention that the Pistons (believe it or not) and the Griffins are both hot right now.
Gas Price update: Wholesale gas prices actually have gone down a dime this week so far. So, unless wholesale prices decide to play catch-up, I’m expecting gas prices to continue to slide at least until Monday. — Ed Aboufadel
Snow cover: 1″ Grand Rapids, Hastings, Grand Haven, Rockford, Ionia…2″ Muskegon, Lansing…3″ Hart…4″ Scottville…5″ Houghton Lake…7″ Lake City…8″ Cadillac…11″ Newberry, 12″ Grand Marais, 13″ S. Ste. Marie, Marquette, 15″ Gaylord. Not much snow in the U.S. next week – except for mountains in the NW.
Also: Does Water Really Spin the Opposite Way Going Down a Drain in the Southern Hemisphere? The Pencil Movie (from a 1958 essay), Houses shaped like animals, Funnel Cloud over Miami Thursday, Pictures of Snow around El Paso, and the E. Coast Blizzard of ’96.
GO IRISH!
DITTO!
Cheer, cheer for Notre Dame!
ROLL TIDE!!!!!!!!
LUCK LUCK LUCK LUCK! GO COLTS!!! INDYY……
The Colts will win another for Chuck on their way to the Super Bowl!
Tsunami warning after 7.5 quake strikes off Alaska.
The CPC has been consistent with the weather pattern we will be seeing next week then the cold air and snowy pattern moving in mid to late January – let us hope this holds true for the snow lovers out there.
Wow maybe .5 inches of snow for GR! Whoopee and then all of the SNOW will melt by the middles of the week. What a joke!
Cant wait for the January thaw. We have to enjoy it before the cold and snow returns again! (Which I am very excited about)
Don’t count on it!
We are still on pace for the WORST WINTER IN HISTORY! The seasonal snowfall total for GR is 7.8 inches and we should be sitting around 32 inches so far! Get ready for a bunch of HYPE concerning the COLD and SNOW is coming! We have been hearing this for 7 straight weeks and it has always been WRONG, so based on this stellar track record, I would not count on any arctic air or any snowstorms in the near future. In fact this could be the year of no WINTER STORM WARNINGS for Kent County!
Good Day,
Maybe a thunderstorm warning… hehe.
Steelie
I am betting we will get about .07 here in Hastings, enough so the MDOT workers can have some overtime. By the looks of things, SNOW STORMS, later this month(maybe).
I almost forgot…GO BAMA…ROLL TIDE.
I am glad that you added the word maybe, because we are entrenched in a NO SNOW PATTERN and NO CHANGES ARE IN SIGHT! We may get a couple cold days with no system snows and very little lake effect. Big deal!
Did you ever consider the idea that you can take the middle ground on something, instead of bouncing back and forth from “We’re in a no snow pattern and no changes are in sight” to “Everything’s changed, here comes winter”?
HA! Good One
No, not an option. I look at weather the same way many people on here look at politics. All or nothing, just like the radical right wing no tax crazies and the left wing extremist. All of the FACTS show that we are well on our way to one of the worst or the WORST WINTER in history. Face the facts people!
Yeah, but you change every week.
Its called being bipolar.
Rocky, there are no FACTS, yet, about this winter. Chill.
I live in Ravenna, which is in Muskegon county. We have yet to see more than a dusting of snow since the winter season began! My kids just want to use their snowboards!
There’s only one world to define College Football, that’d be my Michigan Wolverines, the winngest program in college history, thanks
ROCK ON Tyler!
Go Blue!
Yeah so much for michigan this year huh? Nice loss against SCAR
GO BUCKEYES!!
12-0 We don’t need bowl games.
They don’t need bowl games because they needed tattoos.
HAHA!!!!
OSU is the dirtiest college football program on the face of the Earth.
Agreed!
Miami of FL holds that title.
Yes it is close match between which program is the dirtiest. They are both full of cheaters, drug dealers, drug addicts and thugs!
Wow!! Hey Ohio congrats on winning the City of Columbus Championship this year!! That will be nice in the trophy case!
When does everyone think this arctic air is going to supposedly begin? Because CPC keeps us warm or average til at least Jan 19th. CPC also shows the cold moderating as it tries to work its way east. New GFS runs also starting to show cold moderating. And don’t forget, GFS always has a cold bias in the long run.
In short, the thaw should last at least 2 weeks.
Pretty soon GR will be in a 30″+ snow drought for this winter. Truly unreal. To make matters worse, lake effect snow machine is slowly dying with each passing day.
There will be no arctic air coming! This is the same old BS that we have been hearing for the last two winter seasons! We may get a glancing blow that will not include any system snows or much lake effect snow. The long range GFS has been showing this supposed arctic air for 7 weeks!!! What a joke.
What year was it that we experienced a year without a summer, 1816? This may go down as the year without a winter, at least in these parts. Hopefully we’ll get lots of rain to help with lake levels, aquifers, etc. It’s interesting how cold it is in other parts of the globe in the northern hemisphere.
at this point im confident this summer will be another hot one!
The model runs for tonight are looking better for 1 to 3 inches of snow across the area, as long as no stupid rain mixes in. Perhaps we could get our first widespread snowfall across the region.
Thanks Bill! I use a similar thought concept on the pencil. I teach students economics, and that simple tool in their hands represents the epitome of economic activity. This video will greatly enhance that simple lecture. An army of people required, ‘magically’ happens. Price. It all comes down to price as an almost immeasurably dense data point. When anyone or anything manipulates that data point arbitrarily, the army of people breaks down.
Thanks again Bill!
The temperature has risen to 38 degrees here in Rockford, with partly to mostly sunny skies. However, it seems that most of the forecasts (WOOD, weather.com, NWS) are still predicting exactly one inch of snow, so maybe they’ll finally get it right this time. As for the long range, my best guess is that we have a significantly warmer than average week ahead (with high temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above normal and low temperatures only in the mid-upper 20′s at worst) and mostly a rain system mid-to-late week. Then I think we get into a more winter-like pattern, but I doubt it will be quite as cold as the GFS has indicated. Probably near-to-slightly-below average temperatures, and with the average high not even 30 degrees by that point, we could finally see some decent LES and/or synoptic snow, at least if we get more fortunate on the storm track. Either way, this has been the most uneventful, wimpy winter I’ve ever experienced in my 10 years in West Michigan.
These patterns can’t last forever… So I can’t imagine if this winter is a bust next winter has got to be better. But it’s only January 5. Let’s wait a month before we really give up on Old Man Winter!
thank god in 90 days it will be april. can’t come soon enough for me.
hey fixxxer – me thinks we will have snow thru April and a summer with below normal temps with snow begging again next September and we will buried by November – Oh, I must have been dreaming
you can think that will happen but history tells me otherwise.
BRING ON THE HEAT!
in regards to the year without a summer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
We have been hearing about that nonsense for 3 years now.
Good Day,
Looks like some great weather coming up to hit the water in search of steel! (Steelhead for the uninitiated… hehe.)
Steelie
when is woodtv going to report that the cdc is full of it. they know damn well the new influenza a strain going around is at epidemic proportions and the vaccine this year doesn’t protect but yet they urge you to get it. every person i know has it and it’s BS. and once it hits it’s wipes out the whole household.
http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/04/16329989-early-flu-season-accelerates-no-peak-yet-cdc-says?lite&ocid=msnhp&pos=5
the reason im soo concerned is ym daughter is allergic to the vaccine and ive heard 3 kids have died from this years strain.
as i said a week ago metro was packed with it and they made people wear surgical masks. even at my doctors office anyone who comes in sick “has’ to be checked for the flu. the cdc is covering something up this year.
So to summarize, you say the vaccine doesn’t work, AND you’re concerned because your daughter can’t get the vaccine. Very logical.
i never said it didn’t work. i said they urge people to get it despite many still coming down with it after the vaccine. argue all you want mike, no doubt it’s the worst it has been in over 10 years. and yes as a parent, hearing 3 kids died in michigan im concerned.
i think this is a new strain and that’s why the cdc is requiring people who come to the hospital and doctors to get tested for it.
Hey fix, 1 thing I’ve Noticed with this Strain , or Strains.. Is ya can keep getting.. Re- Infected, with this Crap…. Cough, cough….. Well yaGet the Picture.
Good Day,
That could very well be fixxx. These things are constantly evolving and changing as we play catch up. About the best protection is to keep those hands clean, try to stay away from those infected, and stay home if infected so as not to spread it. And I get a bit OCD about cleaning sheets and laundry too…
People at my wife’s place of work have been “forcibly” sent home by management with stern orders not to return until healthy. (Then again most can access their work from a home computer…)
Steelie
Good Day,
Fixxxer – just for you – at least someone is reporting on the outbreak:
http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/04/16329989-early-flu-season-accelerates-no-peak-yet-cdc-says?lite
Steelie
“they know damn well the new influenza a strain going around is at epidemic proportions and the vaccine this year doesn’t protect”
So, it doesn’t protect but it does work? I just want to make sure I understand you.
Good Day,
A tid bit of sots… If the NWS and models are correct and we do get a significant cool down after this breif warm up next week (not to be a downer) that does not automatically mean more snow. Did you know that Antarctica is one of the worlds biggest deserts and the Earth’s driest continent? Yet it is also the coldest place on Earth…
Steelie
Don’t worry we will not be seeing much arctic air anyway!
Good Day,
Hey Bill! If the veracity of this chart can be confirmed – interesting:
Year Ends With Record Northern Hemisphere Snow
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/01/01/year-ends-with-record-northern-hemisphere-snow/screenhunter_21-dec-31-21-43/
It originally came from the Rutgers University Snow Lab. THere are lots of other interesting charts on their site:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/
Steelie
As for the 1-3 inches of snow for tonight. It is not happening. Most places will see less than an inch of snow and it will all melt on Sunday anyway. Then rain next Thursday will melt all of our snow completely away. So we will be heading into the middle of January with no snow on the ground, above average temperatures
and no SNOWSTORMS in sight! Welcome to West MI and the year of NO WINTER WEATHER!! Golf here I come!
Rocky, The ONLY Consistent Model, Continues To Be The JEM.!!! Which is still , Calling For a BLIZZARD !!!!!! Week of 2/4/13 !!! Mark my Words…. 2/4/ 13…. Get Ready To R n R !!! NOW…..
The week of 2-4? Interesting so the JEM model specializes in the one month long range forecast? Good luck with that and you know I am ready to ROCK n ROLL, however with the year of no SNOWSTORMS, I may need to ROCK n ROLL out on the golf course this winter!
Rocky, Yes that Is Just 1 of The Specialties of the JEM Model !!!!! MARK your Calendar Rocky..You shall SEE !!! In the Meantime…. CUE: Edgar Winters White Trash – Keep Playin’ That Rock And Roll …
► 3:49► 3:49
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElQdOTrvzBA
I will mark it down
Good Day,
If you want Winter weather – you may have to go to China! Brrr…
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_COLDEST_WINTER?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-01-05-07-52-05
Steelie
I hope Green Bay goes all the way to the super-bowl. I am sure they have more snow than we do. I would like (dreaming) to see a snow storm at Green Bay tonight.
GO PACKERS
GO MINNESOTA
Go Cheese HEADS !!!!
For those of you hoping and predicting for the cold arctic air to hit MI and you are basing this on the GFS model. If you do the same thing over and over again you not get different results. How many times has the GFS shown this cold air in the 8 to 12 day range and how many times has it actually occurred? Zero percent – so why would it be any different this time? Maybe the law of averages say it has to correct at least once this winter?
80s by March and megadrought this summer. I would hate to be an orchard grower in MI this year, too.
It’s too early to verify the 2nd part…but your first prediction, like you’re global warming hysteria is a spectacular failure.
The other interesting thing is, by way of not producing a winter forecast, Bill admitted there is a new order of things, something very different.
Yes Brad…
. http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/090-1026120218-new-world-order1.jpg
Well, I did find an old picture of the last Democratic gubernatorial candidate…
http://www.baseballhistorian.com/images/bios/Don%20Mossi.jpg
The 98% of the earth that ISN’T the continental US would argue with the idea of global warming. LOTS of cold.
Not really. Global temps were above average again in 2012. The majority of glaciers continue to retreat. Sea levels continue to rise. Arctic and Antarctic ice volume continues to decline (with local exceptions). Plants are emerging and flowering earlier; life cycles of insects and other animals are trending earlier. Species that require cold soils are disappearing from lower latitudes and elevations. Peat mosses are degrading and releasing methane. The jet stream is getting wavier. The evidence for warming is simply indisputable, although there will always be some piece of data for the deniers to jump on (Bill’s Arctic sea ice surface area, for example, until he stopped posting about it when it dropped precipitously).
Some piece of evidence, like the fact that it hasn’t been warming for 15 YEARS now. Just a technicality, I know.
We’ve been warming, unless you believe conspiracy theories. How many of the past 15 years exhibited average temperatures below the 100-year average?
Look at this chart and then explain to me how it shows warming over the last 15 years.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/286701832607248384/photo/1
Here’s the NASA GISS global temperature: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif It’s been pretty flat for 10 years. Same for the HadCrut data: http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/trend CO2 emissions are falling in the U.S.: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UOksW3d0hXI
Sea level has leveled over the past several years: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/sealeavel_1993-2012.gif
So we’ve peaked, and we’re done warming? Let me know when all of the indicators I mentioned reverse.
brad…I simply don’t believe all your “indicators”. I don’t believe that Antarctic ice volume has been decreasing. I think that’s nonsense. The jet stream is “getting wavier”?? For climate profiteers, global warming is a wonderful opportunity for financial gain (see Al Gore).
You want a post on Arctic ice…from this article: http://homertribune.com/2012/12/ice-breaker-opens-basin-for-troubled-barge/
“Crandall, who owns the only ice-breaker in Kachemak Bay (Alaska), the heavy-duty M/V Redoubt, said the deep cold that took hold this winter so far is unseasonably early. Redoubt’s sister vessel, the M/V Augustine isn’t an icebreaker, but she’s a tough ship that spent just a little over an hour breaking paths free for the Unimak Trader.
“This year, there’s more ice earlier than in normal years,” Crandall said.”
Augustine and Redoubt are called out to bust through ice for the U.S. Coast Guard vessels stationed at Homer, and for other large vessels as well. Usually, the ice-breaking work comes much later in the winter — in January, February and March. November and December this year brought a preponderance of low-temperature days which left the small boat harbor socked in. Only larger commercial vessels and tugs could get in and out, Hawkins said.
Bottom line…global temperatures have been steady for a decade, sea level has been steady for five years and carbon emissions in the U.S. are at a 20-year low and dropping.
No, you can’t tax gasoline to $9 a gallon and force that kind of hardship on the poor and middle class.
Even though he did not officially post a winter forecast he did make an official prediction for the GR Press article. He is on the record predicting 67 inches of snow for this season for GR
Michigan has a law of averages??? Haean’t seen it here lately…
Has anyone seen the updated Fox 17 forecast?! Starting Monday:
40, 40, 43, 45, 46, 48
The big thaw is coming. That would be quite the weather event considering the average right now is only 30.
Looks like parts of the UP are in a snow drought too. Marquette is almost 30 inches below where they should be right now.
This does not surprise me a for a minute. Another month with above average temperatures and virtually no SNOW. The WORST WINTER IN HISTORY is well within reach!
More often than not it hits 50* at least once in January in Michigan.
(In GR)
Here’s the breakdown of # 50F+ days in GR over the past decade:
2012- 3
2011- 1
2010- 0
2009- 0
2008- 3 (including the only +60 reading in Jan in the decade)
2007- 2
2006- 1
2005- 2
2004- 2
2003- 0
2002- 2
2001- 0
Warmest Januarys in order: 1932, 1933, 2006, 1990, 1906, 1944, 1934, 1890, 1989, 1921. In 1932, the average temperature was 34.2. Most of the inland lakes would have been ice free.
Does precipitation ever NOT fall apart as it enters Michigan? Looking at the radar…. “smacks head”
Looks like the heaviest is missing Muskegon again how do you feel about that Matt? Haha I like to give you a hard time because you get upset when no snow hits the Muskegon area!
Because it seems to happen a lot!
I Hear Ya MATT, and I See Ya,
. http://th158.photobucket.com/albums/t107/pahina36/th_banging_head.gif
The snow tonight is really a non event. Most areas will see less than an inch and we have NO SNOWSTORMS IN SIGHT! The winter that wasn’t continues to roll on and on and on! The lowest snowfall total in GR history is well within range!
WINTER is dead. Bring on golf season!
GFS continues to feature repeated shots of true arctic air, cross polar flow. RJ will be singing a different tune a week from now.
We shall see? I will be very surprised to much arctic air and if we do see some arctic air I will really be surprised to see an actual SNOWSTORM or a decent lake effect event for the GR area. At this point I do not expect any SNOWSTORMS for the entire WINTER season for GGR area! WINTER is dead and it is time to move on. There is always next year!!
Naaawwww…..Sorry Couldn’t Resist This 1…. SPIN: The Who – Long Live Rock 1979 – Video Dailymotion
► 5:18► 5:18
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1idi0_the-who-long-liv...
Mar 21, 2007
The Who – Long Live Rock @ International Amphitheater, Chicago, IL, USA, 8th December 1979 …
Long Live ROCK N ROLL!
can anyone tell me the weather for Monday the 14th? It’s my daughters birthday so we would like to know.
I would seek an oracle, a psychic, or a crackpot. Oh, and those are inclusive.
Perfect! You seem to have all three of these traits. Give her the forcast for the 14th.
Perfect! You seem to have all three of these traits. Give her the forcast for the 14th.
Give it one more post- it’s a charm!
Perfect!!!! You seem to have all three of these traits. Give her the forcast for the 14th.
For the record, the 14th was a decent day…sunniest day of the month so far and a high of 40. Happy belated Birthday to your daughter.
It’s a long way off. Here’s the GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif With -7C at 850 mb and a light northwest wind…it would probably be mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries and temperatures around 25 to 30 most of the day if this is right.