Colder Pattern – Slick Spots Sunday

January 11th, 2013 at 12:59 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  This is the GFS model run from Friday AM – valid for the morning of 1/22.  Now it’s the GFS…so don’t get too excited if you’re a winter lover…but this is a real shot of Arctic air, complete with lake-effect snow showers and single digit temperatures.  We do know that colder air will start to come in Saturday evening.  A wave riding the front to our east will bring a period of mixed precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow) to the area Saturday night (mainly after midnight) into Sunday AM.  There will be some slick spots on the roads Sunday AM, beware of that.  The cool air sticks around next week with temperatures back to normal January levels.  UPDATE:  The European has a major cold shot starting the afternoon of the 17th.  We go to -25 at 850 mb and the temperature Friday afternoon in G.R. is around +7F. So…while timing is different…both the GFS and European have MAJOR cold shots for Lower Michigan…and…with the Lake Michigan water temperature still up around 40 degrees, we can expect at least snow showers, if not some more significant lake-effect snow.  We’ll have at least a couple shots of at least light snow next week, so the ground will get white again.  Catch me on TV for the latest.    ALSO:  Satellite images:   Mt. Fuji with cap cloud, large mine sculpture “Lady of the North” from N. England and St. Peter’s Square on Easter Sunday.

123 Responses to “Colder Pattern – Slick Spots Sunday”

  1. Yup (Grandville) says:

    Boring weather pattern, enjoying the warm today!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      The warmth/ack of snow gave me a chance to do some yard work, although I was sweating….sheesh…who would have thought it would be too warm in January??

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Lol…wow. It has actually been kind of chilly in the Muskegon area all week…we had some of our snow left until the rain last night. The lake has definitely been moderating us from getting too warm.

  2. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Fog rolling in here, visibility has dropped to maybe a mile or less. Just got done working, crazy how stuffy and humid it is. We actually turned the air on for a while to clear the dampness out. Can’t remember the last time it felt this humid in January? Except maybe last year…..

    1. fixxxer says:

      doesn’t feel humid to me at all.

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        It was bad at work. Everything was damp, the air was stuffy, even the windows were fogging up from the humidity. Glad I’m still wearing shorts yet or I would have been soaked to.

        1. fixxxer says:

          Do you work in a factory?

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          I have had students wearing shorts to school.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Just last week I also had both the air on and shorts on….But wait I was in Florida and while it was warm it was not all that humid. While its warm for January standards for Michigan its not that warm nor that humid Heck its only 50°

      1. fixxxer says:

        cant wait until we go to florida in march.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          We can’t wait either.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          :P J/K fixxxy

  3. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Good read here on the suns roll with earths weather. A bit complex, but interesting:

  4. Christian says:

    Bill, what’s been the total snowfall accumulation for the city of Grand Rapids this autumn/winter? Am I correct that we’re still not at 12 inches total yet?

    1. fixxxer says:

      i dunno where you live but i doubt ive even had close to 5″ in wyoming. hope to keep it that way too.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      9.0 inches

    3. Tonka says:

      I would like to know zeeland. 5 or 6 inches tops

  5. fixxxer says:

    well that’s one heck of a contrast in temps.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      My sister should be leaving California today for her drive back to Michigan – and I’m worried about the incredible cold she will encounter in Arizona and New Mexico. How warped is that??????

  6. Straight Truth says:


  7. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Can’t wait Bill!!

  8. Brad says:

    I may not see my 60s tomorrow. So, my new question is whether we can hit 100F this May. Here’s the current drought map: We need this map to expand, and we need a big ridge of high pressure to sit over us, but we can do it!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Not happening Brad, but then I didn’t expect it anyway.

    2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Parts of SE Mich already hit 60 today! And tomorrow is supposed to be warmer.

      1. Brad says:

        So at least I was right about 60s nearby. My models three weeks ago were pretty strong on 60+ in SLP.

        1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          More right than all of those who criticized me for saying that a massive thaw was coming ;)

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Never said a thaw wasn’t coming, disputed the terms amazing, astounding, and scorcher. I wouldn’t say that two days of near record highs qualify as any of those things.

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          On top of the hottest year on record for GR. Probably note worthy.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures were almost exactly average: (+0.039 degree)

          Global temperatures have been flat for a decade: (NASA DATA).

          CO2 emissions in the United States have been dropping and are now at 20-year lows: (from USA TODAY)

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          Maue is a right-wing blogger and featured guest on Limbaugh. I think we’ll wait for data from an unbiased source. How low can you go??

        6. bobcat says:

          Limbaugh doesn’t have ‘featured’ guests.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          bobcat is right and once again BigDaddy is wrong.

          From NASA: (global temperatures steady for the past 10 years)

          CO2 emissions falling in the U.S. – now at a 20-year low:

          Winter snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere increasing:

          Drought was worse in the 1930s:

          Brutal cold across Asia and much of Europe. The biggest snowstorm in a couple decades across part of Lebanon and Israel:…0.0…1ac.1.W8MJYDtKCmU

    3. Brad (Lawrence) says:

      I’m gonna wager my money on us NOT hitting 100 in May.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Agreed. I believe Muskegon has never hit 100. The odds of hitting 100 in the summer even in GR are pretty slim.

  9. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Shift to a strong SW breeze sure put a stop to this morning’s quickly rising temps.

  10. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Up to 61 degrees in Monroe. 29 degrees above average!

    My car in Troy read 57 this afternoon with the sun shining.

    1. chuckles says:

      Thanks for the constant weather updates on your side of the state.

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        You’re welcome, Chuckles. That’s the beauty of Bill’s Blog.

    2. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

      Saturday morning, half of CONUS is well above average. Other half, well-below. Guess what that means? CONUS avg = 0F

      1. arcturus says:

        Big deal, it’s the Joe Bastardi clone. The # of record highs vs record lows will be hard to ignore even from the most delusional ‘climate isn’t changing’ puppet. When the records do fall there’s an excellent chance we won’t hear from either the Mau(s) or JB. Bank on it.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Des Moines, Iowa hasn’t set a record high temperature in July since 1955. They haven’t had a top-ten warmest July since 1983:

          In Grand Rapids in July from 1910-1966 (56 years) we set 23 record high temperatures in July. From 1967-2012 (56 years) we’ve set 3 record highs and tied one.

          24 of 50 states still have their highest temperature of record from the 1930s: Only one state has set an all-time heat record since 1995 and that’s despite the fact that we have 20 times as many thermometers now than we had in the 1930. Six states have set all time record cold temperatures since 1995 (RI, WI, IA, MN, ME, IL).

          Find me a scientist who has claimed that the data that Dr. Maue offers is inaccurate.

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Never mind the fact that he’s a right-wing blogger that’s been featured on Rush Limbaugh. LOL

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Dr. Maue has a Ph.D. You haven’t proven that you have a GED. Dr. Maue has developed an absolutely awesome model data page. Ask Dr. Hart at Florida State about him.

          I still wish you’d agree to debate Dr. Maue. He’s from W. Michigan and gets here once or twice a year. He can share climate data and you can rant about Emergency Managers.

        4. big Daddy BC says:

          Maue is a punk who’s trying to attract money from the fossil fuel block. He’s succeeded. He was featured on Limbaugh. Real scientists don’t moonlight as right-wing activists. This guy’s dirty.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          I can understand why you’d be afraid to debate Dr. Maue…or anyone else. You’ve presented no verifiable credentials. You have a flawed character. You are a proven liar (like when you said that Romney was a polygamist). You make statements that you can’t define (like when you said you would end “subsidies for Exxon” and I asked what specific subsidy to Exxon you would end…you had no answer except a nebulous “tax breaks”). I don’t want the poor and middle class to pay more for a gallon of gas. That’s why I sometimes post when my source tells me prices are going up…hopefully I can save readers a couple dollars at the pump. You just want them to pay more into the general fund to be redistributed to cronies (see the Al Gore story…you know he’s worth more money than Mitt Romney?).

          C’mon – don’t just demean the character of a reputable Ph.D. scientist, agree to a debate. We’ll get it on tape and distribute it to the students. But they’d love to see you in an actual debate.

        6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          And another left! Down goes Frasier (bdbc)!!

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          LOL Listen, I’ve offered to debate you several times. I’ve even given times and places, but alas you’re always a no show. Maue is a right-wing activist who’s all over the blogosphere posting ignorant ideological crap. He’s even made it to Limbaugh’s show. Give us a break. We’re supposed to trust a political activist who’s proven a bias about climate??? As far as character flaws go, you support racist laws, have publicly stated that democrats are socialists and likened them to NAZIs, regularly bash teachers, argue that the middle class should be taxed to provide even more breaks for the wealthy, continually misrepresent your credentials and expertise, and joked about the plight of labor in this state after right to work for less was passed, saying how you hope they try again so your station could make even more in advertising.
          Fact is, you don’t know me and it really doesn’t matter who I am or what credentials I have. It’s a damned blog and you’re a tired old weatherman who can’t seem to predict a thing.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          You have not ever agreed to a debate. You told me once that on a Saturday you’d be somewhere (and you didn’t say where) in Yankee Springs. Let’s shoot for 2/4 at 1 PM in Big Rapids. I’ll bring a splashy Powerpointe…you can rant on about Emergency Managers or whatever. Maue would clean your clock and you know it. You’re just a political activist.

          Our TV station made a lot of money because of guys like YOU! The unions have boatloads of money and put tens of millions into Proposal 2. Just the Bay City Teachers alone gave $40,000.00 to the campaign to impose protection for drunk and stoned teachers into the Michigan Constitution! Read this:

  11. Storm waning says:

    Major cold may be (yawn) arriving and possibly could might perhaps show up next week Fri……. Zzzzzzzzzzz.

  12. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    NICE 55 degrees out !!! Partly cloudy last 4 hours!! Tomorrow is supposed to be even WARMER!!!!!

  13. arcturus says:

    Snowfall coverage was mentioned after an extensive snowfall event. Now that there’s been an extensive rainfall event it’s only fair it be revisited. How do we stand this year vs last and how does it compare to the average?

    1. Brad says:

      Great question!

        1. Brad says:

          No they don’t.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          How would you know?…have you looked thru all their calculations? I wish they were more transparent. I’ve had 2 NWS meteorologists tell him that there’s some massaging of the data. There’s so much money to be had (or not had) in “global warming” now.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s the Rutger’s snow lab: Check the maps and data. Here’s the Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomaly graph: Here’s North American snow cover: It shows in general snow has been increasing. Check out the snow in Israel:…0.0…1ac.1.W8MJYDtKCmU Jerusalem has had measurable precipitation 7 days in a row, a total of 3.55″. The high temperature in Jerusalem was 38 yesterday.

  14. kevin. w says:

    Sorry off subject…Does anybody or anyone know if Menards is a good place to work, my son wants to get a job either there or at Home Depot. Any thoughts. Bring on the cold, I guess its January.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Don’t know about that, but I would say that Lowes employees are generally more helpful and knowledgeable than those at HD or Menards.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      We have a Menard’s close to us on Alpine and we’ve found it to be a good store…knowledgeable and helpful staff, they have what’s on sale. Items seem to be acceptably priced.

  15. fixxxer says:

    Betting sunday will be dry.

  16. Jimbo says:

    Hey Bill,What’s the weather going to be like in Michigan City, Indiana Next Friday thru sunday…18th thru 20th???

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Jimbo, check out the Weather Channel or Accuweather.

  17. Scooter (Battle Creek) says:

    Love the warm temps but I have to admit, the cold makes shoveling dog poo much easier!

  18. TACO BOY says:

    Fixxxer stop playing with your self and come work some TACOS with me…We have a oder of 100 TACOS tonight must be the rain Bill. TACO BOY!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Taco bell ftw!

    2. Scott (west olive) says:

      Next time I’m that way now I have 2 stop in. Cravin a taco. Lol

      1. Katie in Kentwood says:

        Hey Taco Boy, what happened to the Taco Boy on 44th street?? It’s a Donks now. I am so sad.

  19. DerekS says:

    This winter is shaping up to be very similar too last. Rememeber last year the lake shore had a couple of good shots of lake effect snow before it warmed up.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I don’t remember any “good shots of lake effect” last winter. It just seemed warm all the time to me.

  20. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We are getting there! Muskegon to Big Rapids and northwestward is looking at a decent small snowstorm for this weekend. I don’t like being so close to the line (what else is new) so move it a little more south, please!

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      It’s also the nam too which has been inaccurate but I sure hope for you Matt as you have been in the snow bubble maybe it will be popped lol!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        :) I am ready for it to be popped to oblivion!

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        The other models show us getting some snow too, which is definitely a positive.

        1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

          So do weather channel and intellicast

        2. fixxxer says:

          Dont they habe a blog in oklahoma?

  21. About Monroe hitting 60, might have but we have 2 stations only a few miles from there and Jasper hit 58.0 and Blissfield hit 57.1 but still balmy

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      Lots of places in Michigan will be hitting 60 tomorrow!

    2. fixxxer says:

      You call 57 balmy?

      1. DUH fixxer it’s January

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Exactly, enjoy it. Winter is coming soon. At least for a day or two.

  22. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z gfs is frigid.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      A LOT more frigid than the past 2 days, looks snowy starting next Saturday as well. Hopefully it’s right this time!

  23. Loving this milder air and rain. Of course, all good things must come to an end. As far as the snow is concerned, any clippers that come through during that cold period will be moisture starved. I think we’ll be lucky to see any substantial lake effect snow during that time, but here’s hoping.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Hopefully we have a active severe weather season but im not holding my breath chuck.

  24. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Even though we are still in a major NO SNOW PATTERN I do finally believe that we will be seeing some colder air filter into our area by the middle or end of next week! I also see our SNOW chances increasing about this time. I am still waiting for a major SNOWSTROM! I will not believe our horrible SNOW DROUGHT is over until I actually see a real SNOWSTORM! Bring in on!

    1. Jack says:

      2/4/13….. JEM Model… Says.. ;-)

      1. fixxxer says:

        Come on jack thats too far out to even be remotley correct..

        1. Jack says:

          FIXXXxer..When it turns out to be, CORRECT !!! I Bet You will….CRAPtastic, Your Pants…Stay Tuned too JEM, for Further UPDATES….. ;-)

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Bring on the blizzard. This will be the first real test of the JEM model long range accuracy. Bring on the BLIZZARD! Long live ROCK n ROLL.

        1. Jack says:

          How About that Little Band From Texas… Spin : ZZ Top – Heard It On The X – YouTube
          ► 2:24► 2:24

          Mar 11, 2011 – Uploaded by GimmeBackMyBullets75
          ZZ Top – Heard It On The X Lyrics: Do you remember back in nineteen sixty-six? Country Jesus …
          Enjoy ! ;-)

        2. 04 GTO (gaines 68th & Kzoo) says:


      3. Steelie says:

        Good Day,

        JEM – wasn’t that the name of a cartoon character in the 80′s… I seem to remember my wife said she used to watch it. ;-)


        1. Jack says:

          JEM = Jacks ExperiMENTAL Model..Stay CUED : David Allen Cole Marijuanaville Music Video – YouTube
          ► 3:33► 3:33

          Aug 21, 2010 – Uploaded by malissa7671
          David Allen Cole Marijuanaville Music Video … Label your fucking videos properly. Reply …
          Lol… ;-)

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          The JEM model rocks. Once the snowstorm actually arrives I would like to see which model can give the most accurate snowfall prediction! The JEM or the RDB! :)

        3. Jack says:

          Ok..Rocky..Your on for the Snowfall Prediction..Stay cued….. ;-)

        4. Jack says:

          Steelie: Speaking or Cartoons , Here is a cue, About Cartoons, Peace Bro…Enjoy : Cartoon Song Chris Rice – YouTube
          ► 3:22► 3:22

          Oct 14, 2007 – Uploaded by crazzymoose
          This is a song by Chris Rice about cartoons being saved. I edited this little video with images …

  25. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    The first link is from 2 days ago for 1/25, and the second link is from today’s 18Z for 1/25. Huge difference in just 2 days.

  26. SW Kent says:

    Still on track for my forecast from the past 30 days……..colder and snowier from Jan 20th to Feb 10th!
    Get the snowblower out!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      We can always hope that you are correct. I am still waiting for an actual SNOWSTORM!!!!

    2. Storm waning says:

      Snowblower? Snowblower? I’ve heard many a tale of these…… Blowers of the snow. They are rumored to have removed frozen precip called “snow”. This word “snow” is strange to us…. Tells us more!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Yeah, I hear it snows in places like El Paso, Texas and Little Rock, Arkansas. I wonder what it is like and how they deal with it there. They probably know how to drive in it!

  27. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Hopefully I will be GOLFING tomorrow and SNOWMOBILING by next weekend!!

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Let’s hope, but I doubt we will have enough base by next weekend down here. Up north is looking pretty decent by next weekend however.

    2. Storm waning says:

      Odds are statistically speaking compared to the last 16 months this will not happen. You’ve been burned repeatedly and yet you keep wandering into the fire. The ratio of no cold to cold is in favor of the no cold. And, if it does get cold it will leave quickly.

  28. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    John dee is giving all you folks along the lakeshore in his 5-10 day forecast 4-8″ including the gr area

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Which is saying something. He hasn’t had our area in any more than the 1-4″ throughout the entire winter.

  29. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I’ll believe when I see it!

  30. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Any record highs set today in Michigan?

    WXYZ Detroit is predicting 62 degrees for Detroit tomorrow and even warmer south of the city. Record is 63 from 1890.

    As for GR: “Records will likely be broken on Saturday, at least in Grand Rapids. The record high is 55 degrees, set in 2005. FOX 17 is forecasting a high of 60 for Grand Rapids.”

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      But Wood is only forecasting 54… let’s see what happens!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      60 tomorrow. If only the fairways and greens were dry, right Rocky.

  31. TACO BOY says:

    Still looking for Fixxxer have 55 TACOS to make and shake Fixxxer can bend and TACO BOY will spend!!!!! Bill thanks for the rain dance.TACO BOY!

  32. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Wow, checking out WZZM’s forecast is always depressing. They are the opposite of WOOD, as in their forecast always has the least amount of precipitation and they are the warmest. At 7 p.m. Tonight, George both posted forecasts. Bill says snow possible on Wednesday, while George says mostly sunny. Now, I know it would be safer to say no snow on Wednesday based on how the winter has gone….but come on George, almost all the models show us being affected by colder air and possibly a clipper around then. Even it doesn’t snow, I highly doubt we will have mostly sunshine with cold air over the lake. I thinkit is just WZZM’s goal to be “non hype”, but they’re too extreme on the other end.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Matt, I’m telling ya, RDB model has been good all season so far. Don’t forget the fixxer rule of thumb “we shall see”. :)

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Haha. Ride the Rocky train! From Rocky’s posts, he is appearing a bit less aggressive and a little more positive. So perhaps the RDB is a rockin and a rollin for winter to come! The MAT model predicts that Rocky will be shouting about winter’s return some time this week. It is also showing a 95% chance that we get a few strong gusts of hot air from Oklahoma City, a 99% chance of a stationary snow band over Wyoming, MI, and a 100% chance of Global Warming, but only over Battle Creek.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Spot on forecast Matt, you just nailed it. Let the circus roll on.

      2. Jack says:

        Brian not The Circus Roll, Instead…Spin : Good Times Roll – The Cars – YouTube
        ► 3:46► 3:46
        Mar 11, 2012 – Uploaded by JenBraidley
        From the Cars’ self-titled debut album. Lyrics: let the good times roll let them knock you around …
        Lol, tee Hee .. ;-)

  33. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    These next 3 weeks are it! It’s do or die now. If we don’t get really cold & build up a decent snowpack by the 1st week of Feb., then I’d say winter is history. By mid Feb, the sun angle already starts getting higher in the sky, & by that time if there isn’t a widespread deep snowpack available to keep it colder for a longer time, then you can pretty much count on temps soaring way above freezing from that point on, with very little snow.

  34. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Wow! This would be cold!

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