Sunday

January 12th, 2013 at 1:51 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  Sunday 2:30 PM – Nothing left but a little mist.  The temperature is 30 here in Comstock Park, but the puddles have not frozen.  It’s down to 28 in Fremont, and as temperatures continue to cool to the low-mid 20s tonight, we will see a few icy spots develop.   Record high temperatures Saturday:  57 G. Rapids, 52 Houghton Lake, 60 Flint, 55 Traverse City and Alpena 57.  Other highs (not records):  53 Muskegon, 58 Lansing, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 59 Detroit, 56 Holland (Regional Airport).  It was warmer in Lower Michigan this PM than it was in the Desert Southwest.   A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire area from 10 PM this evening until 11 AM on Sunday.  The latest NAM gives Grand Rapids 0.62″ of rain and then freezing rain.  However, while we get the freezing rain it’s 30-31 and after a warm day today, I think most main roads may stay just wet if it stays above or at 30 in the AM.  The NAM Caribou gives G.R. highs of 28 Monday and 29 on Tuesday.   For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. You can check out the S. Haven Lighthouse, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station by the Holland Channel, the Muskegon beach (when the wind is in knots – kts. – multiply by 1.15 to get mph), and the beach at Michigan City, Indiana. Snow cover as of 1/11 AM: 1″ Big Rapids, 2″ Baldwin and Houghton Lake, 4″ Cadillac and Lake City, 6″ Gaylord, 7″ Newberry, 8″ S. Ste. Marie and Grand Marais, 12″ Marquette. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s a few pictures of the last snowstorm.  Here’s current U.S. temperatures.

107 Responses to “Sunday”

  1. INDY says:

    We can call this thee snow and cold Blogg!! BURRR TEMPS HAVE PEAKED GOOD NIGHT SPRING!! INDYY…..

  2. BJ says:

    Hi Bill:
    Even though we have hardly had any snow this season yet, with the rain we have had, is the total precipitation amount near or below normal so far? I was wondering if we continue like this if we will have drought conditions again this summer to make the conditins even worse than the drought of this previous summer. Also, do you think you are going to revise your snowfall prediction for the season, or do you think we could catch up yet?
    Another thing I was thinking about–I notice that the snow has been bypassing larger cities around here, e.g. Chicago and Grand Rapids, even though areas around the cities receive snow. Could there be something to do with the pollution or heat generated from the cities? Probably a dumb idea, but since it seems cities are in a bubble for not receiving snow, I started to think about reasons why.

    1. fixxxer says:

      it is a bubble. why do you think the summer storms fizzle out here too. as far as a drought i think that was resolved by all the rain we had from aug-current.

      1. INDY says:

        lol fizzel!!

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      With the rain on Thursday Grand Rapids is above average for precip since December 1st. Not by a lot, but still above the 30-year average.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      I don’t think the cities has anything to do with it. Storm systems have dropped snow to our west and north (Madison has had nearly 2 feet of snow this winter) and to our south and east (Indianapolis is above normal for snowfall this winter). One SW to NE band thru Northern Illinois and Lower Michigan has missed everything. We were below average for rainfall last year, but if you go back to 1/1/11, since then we are slightly above average.

  3. INDY says:

    Wow at 1257pm YARDofBRICKS had a air temp of 58* recored at 230pm it is now 49* out thee YARDofBRICKS Only in Michigan we can go from spring to winter in 6 hours!!! SNOW STORM OR BUST!!! INDYY…..

  4. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    60 degrees starting to pop up around SE Mich for the 2nd straight day!

    Lots of sunshine here. Saw a jogger on the trail without his shirt on. Only in Michigan in January!

    1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

      60 Howell, 61 Monroe, 60 Rochester, 60 Hillsdale

      1. Wmi says:

        And we care because? This is west Michigan.

        1. Mike (Mattawan) says:

          we care because its weather and weather is what bills blog is ALL ABOUT! YEAH!

        2. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

          Even the heading of this blog has been updated with temps from around the state! So Bill cares too.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        WOW!! Sleet and 28 degrees here!

  5. INDY says:

    Well from the heat off all morning and the windows open to now windows closed heat back on and temps in the 40′s BACK TO WINTER ONLY IN MICHIGAN!! INDYY..

  6. INDY says:

    Bill I hope u have fun on your 3 days off thanks for keeping up the good work u do!!! INDYY…

  7. It’s 2:45 in Lansing, and I am still at 58! :)

  8. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    Winter weather advisory is out

  9. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Flood watch for southeast Michigan including Ann Arbor and Detroit very interesting system. !

  10. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    maybe the temp will drop quicker then anticipated and it will all be snow!! Fingers crossed!!

  11. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

    I hope we see the ground white again tomorrow. :)

    1. Jack says:

      Sherry, I think we will Have to Wait..Till Wed.2 see The ground WHITE Again… :-)

      1. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

        I can wait. Just so winter gets here sooner or later! :)

    1. Jack says:

      Thanks, turbo..Saw it last Nite, Gave me aLaugh 2nd Time Around, Thanks for sharing… Peace.. ;-)

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      My sister left the Paso Robles CA area late Friday – drove 40 to OKC, then (on my advice) headed N on 35 to Des Moines. It was in the teens in CA, and in Arizona and New Mexico, she was seeing temps on her car’s thermometer of below-zero numbers! So she’s pretty excited about getting to “warm” Michigan early this evening….LOL!!

  12. Kimoeagle says:

    Nasty weather coming toward IND and DTT SW to NE along that cold front.It may miss most odf us, but IND,DTT.TOL may get a piece of it later tonight or tomorrow.

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      It’s not going to miss you guys all of you are under a wwa for ice

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        The latest outlook says the freezing rain will miss most of our CWA (yay!) – we’ll just have some spotty sleet and snow. Did you get freezing rain last night??

    2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      well for ice conditions the temps need to be JUST RIGHT… a degree or two colder its snow, a degree or two warmer and its rain. Im hoping kzoo gets rain honestly because I DO NOT want another ice event. The one 2 years ago was enough for me! (or was the storm last year… hmmm)

  13. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

    ECMWF in support of pattern ideas. GFS is showing where this is going, ECMWF going to unload biggest US cold shot since 94 winter also

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      TWC’s forecast for our area in the next 10 days is pretty laughable. They have us getting snow on Monday, but not later this week. They also have us in the mid to upper 30′s on Wednesday and next weekend.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        GFS is showing clippers tracking to our north through next weekend, which could keep us slightly warmer. The real show is the following week.

        That said, I can’t think of the last time I checked a forecast on “the weather channel”. Seems like on the rare occasion that I turn it on, they’re covering anything but weather.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Oh, so now the arctic air will be here next week! I will believe when I see it. Same old garbage that I have heard for the last 8 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

      No way….joe b predicts massive cold outbreak. Probably not as cold as the arctic blast he predicted around Xmas.

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Ya right – where and when have we heard that before! He has lost all credibility. His accuracy rate this winter is a tad above .01%!

  14. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Current GRR/NWS discussion is not all that “unseasonable” for next week. Note – no mention of an Arctic air mass:

    .LONG TERM…(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
    ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2013

    NEXT WEEK WILL DEFINITELY BE COLDER THAN THIS PAST WEEK. HOWEVER NO
    MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION. INSTEAD…A COUPLE OF
    CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UP AND DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF
    COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF
    NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MOST OF THE
    WEEK WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE NW CWA.

    THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
    WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A
    CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS
    QUICKER. WE WON/T SEE MUCH SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH IT BUT MAY SEE SOME
    LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND IT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WHEN H8
    TEMPS FALL TO -13C. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
    HIGH THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COLDER AND WE/LL SEE SNOW
    SHOWERS…CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE TIMING OF THE CLIPPER AND
    SECOND COLD FRONT.

    We will see…

    Steelie

  15. michael g (SE GR) says:

    That second wave on the front keeps tracking farther west for tomorrow afternoon/night. Maybe we’ll catch a little surprise snow from it.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Sure and maybe joe.b will be right for a change. ;)

  16. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    We reached 59 (almost 60) degrees here today, according to our home weather station.

  17. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Were getting some sleet and freezing rain right now in Tulsa it’s making things a bit slippery

  18. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    The cold air is already here. Just look at the temps out west.

    The problem all along is that it doesn’t seem to want to move east. All the models originally said we’d be frigid by mid week. Then it was next weekend. Now, it’s the week after, if at all.

    Meanwhile, every day that passes the cold seems to be moderating and more heat is building to come in from the west.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      More heat is building to come in from the west? Like the 8* in Denver? Scorching!

  19. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Radar looks nasty to the SW of us moving N-NE, so we shall see what that does along with the temps. Rain or Freezing rain that will put a light coating of ice on everything.

    1. Jack says:

      Swat- Zoo..Driving in ICE, Sucks…I Hate it almost as much as….FOG….. How’s Thee Yard of Ducks? These Days ? ;-)

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Hello Jack~I agree driving on ice SUCKS especially when I drive 40min round trip taking my boys to school and where their school is located it’s a death trap getting in/out of the school drive. They go to ChandlerWoods on Post Rd just off the 131 ramps and it HORRIBLE I have to close my eyes every day a car with kids are driving in/out wondering who’s going to get smacked or if I will, especially in Fog but I worry dearly once we get a good dumping of snow or ice or both and school is still open. YardOfDucks are doing good, been busy these last few days getting the last touch ups so they can hunker down if/when we get ice/snow, not sure about this winter but any time there is talk rather it pans out or not I do prepare just to play it safe.

        1. Jack says:

          Be Safe Lady, God Bless !!! :-)

  20. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It was a great day on the golf course! I see there are still no SNOWSTORMS IN SIGHT. The storm tonight will take the snow North of us. The storm on Sunday will go Southeast of us and I see the arctic air HYPE is slowing down. There is no arctic air in sight. It keeps getting pushed farther and farther back. Same old story – NO COLD AIR and NO SNOWSTORMS and the WORST WINTER EVER! Winter is looking more and more like a total BUST!! There is always next year:)

    1. Storm waning says:

      But….but ……..

      1. Storm waning says:

        Whaaaaaaa. The models said……….

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          You know the drill – all long range models are 100% WORTHLESS, yet the experts and the bloggers keep looking at them and spouting off about the “COLD and SNOW IS COMING”. I have heard this song and dance now for 8 straight weeks with no results!!

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          So, the two stooges agree, at least until RJ flips again.

    2. Jack says:

      Don’t Forget.. Week of 2/4/ 13…… ROCKY….. Stay Tuned…. ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        We shall see, however by 2-4-13 we will probably have above average temps and rain! The year of NO WINTER WEATHER goes on and on and on!

        1. fixxxer says:

          Lol….

  21. Storm waning says:

    From the wood forecast

    As more cold air oozes in Sunday the freezing rain will transition to sleet then light snow showers.

    Seriously “oozes”

    Who writes this copy?

  22. Jim S.(Saugatuck Twp) says:

    While im as skeptical as anyone regarding the cold air that may come, the cpc has pretty much kept us above normal all winter….even when joe b and accuweather we’re spouting off in dec about arctic air. Now, they have us below normal in temps and above in precip(likely lake effect) in the 8-14 day outlook. It’s a glimmer of hope…yet, no snowstorms in sight…and lake effect is tricky.

  23. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    Md up to Chicago for freezing rain rates up to 0.05 to .10″ an hour looks like it could get nasty for you guys tonight!

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0017.html

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I think you could be right Deb, look at this stuff closing in and heading N-NE, glad I got my YardOfDucks ready for this so they and I can hunker down out of this mess. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

  24. arcturus says:

    How many record highs vs record lows made today?

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      And what are the WORLDWIDE temps today?

  25. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Interesting how, GRR has very little ICE south of 96 yet spc is saying frz rai could effect areas all the way too St. Louis

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Cold air is to the WEST as the low slides NNE. Not unusual to see temps falling into the teens with snow in St Louis while it’s still warm and rainy here in a situation like this.

      1. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

        Boo…….

  26. Geneo says:

    Well we will see what mother naturegive us.

  27. Battle Creek says:

    2 rain storms that should have been snow storms.. These 2 storms alone would have brought more snow than we’ve had all season

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Agree with that. A low moving NNE over Western Lake Erie in January should be burying us.

  28. Clint(Rothbury) says:

    Sleeting right now up here in Rothbury!!

  29. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Some lightning making its way up to northern Ohio… wonder if Michigan sees any storms tonite!

  30. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Just saw Kevin Craig on Fox 17 forecasting S-SE winds at 5-10 tonight and tomorrow. That’s a different take on things.

  31. weather watcher says:

    Mostly rain near Fremont. I swear I hear the occasional ping of a sleet pellet off and on.

  32. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

    New md for all of west Michigan

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0019.html

  33. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    Hey all, don’t think we’re really going to have to worry much about the freezing rain tonight. The back edge of precip is already pushing into IL with a large dry slot that is aimed at SW Michigan.

    Looks like the best areas for a .10″ of ice would be NW of Grand Rapids to Cadillac. South and east of that would be mainly rain before turning to sleet and snow before ending early tomorrow AM.

    1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

      It might even be more north than that Ludington- Big Rapids looks like another NWS fail for you guys!

      1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        Not really, surface temps are already near freezing up that way. No fail. And I think the NWS has a good handle on it.

        1. Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

          I was talking about the dry slot though it looks to be aiming for just about everybody south of the U.S 10

        2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Typical, oh well there is always…….hmm next time after that next time and that next time again, or next winter or the winter after that one.

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Speaking of fails, how about this call….

        Deb (Oklahoma City) says:

        January 12, 2013 at 4:50 pm

        It’s not going to miss you guys all of you are under a wwa for ice

  34. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    This is the definition of “Nowcast”. This storm system is poorly handled by all the models. The track is solid, but with temperatures, and 800mb/700mb warmer than the surface, sub-freezing at the surface, ect… there’s just too many variables to pinpoint a system like this. Personally, these are my favorite because of the challenge.

  35. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

    I think everyone will have a glaze of ice in the morning, but wouldn’t expect more than that SE of GR.

    Also, tomorrow afternoon and night we could have some sleet/snow from a different system.

  36. INDY says:

    OHHHHHHHHHH ITS GETTING COLD OUTSIDE!!! WE HAVE A BLIZZARD OF COLD AIR COMING!!! STAY TUNED INDYY…..

    1. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

      Let’s make bacon INDY… get the sprites.

      1. INDY says:

        lolololo I AM READY HARRY!! INDYY…

  37. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Why is Muskegon county always under a dry pocket? With every storm, it is the same thing on radar. Bill,is it down sloping?

  38. Michael (Berrien county) says:

    LOL…. ‘acclueless’ weather has us with thunderstorms & snow here on Sat. Jan 26th on their “accurate & dependable” 25 day outlook. Yeah I really got my hopes up for that to materialize. haha.

  39. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

    We have 9 inches of ice coming!!!

    [IMG]http://i701.photobucket.com/albums/ww15/Nicks_Garage/ice_zpsbc6db573.png[/IMG]

    Someone made a booboo!!!

    Ill take 9” of snow tho!

      1. Michael (Berrien county) says:

        Hahaha…. the Mayans made a mistake…. it wasn’t Dec. 21 that was the end of the world, but TONIGHT INSTEAD!!!!!!!

      2. Harry (Battle Creek) says:

        hahaha

        1. Nick (Grand Haven / West Olive) says:

          9” of ice would be insane in reality tho….. probably would be the end of most everything around here!

  40. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z GFS still keeping us cold with lake effect snow the 20-26th. And I see the eastern portion of the U.P. is under a lake effect advisory for 6-10″ through Monday. So at least the lake effect trend is starting around here.

  41. Storm waning says:

    We will not get any snow in the gr area. How do I know? Because it’ s never gonna happen!!!! Wake up

  42. Scott (west olive) says:

    Well that’s nice, big hole on the radar over Holland /Muskegon. Normal nowadays.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Yup, I have noticed this many times. It doesn’t seem to really fail. I still have yet to et a professional answer, so I have concluded we must be unfortunate to deal with down sloping from the north…it just happens way too often…

      1. Scott (west olive) says:

        I always blamed Consumers energies smoke stacks. Depending on wind direction if it makes a difference. I’ve seen to many storms get split right out from me to not believe it anymore.

  43. phlrnnr says:

    Looks like another bust for the NWS on the WWA. Still 35 degrees and no precip on the radar nearby.

    1. Yup (Grandville) says:

      I can understand the no snow, because they can’t forecast those amounts at all these days, but the fact that it is still above freezing? LMAO!

  44. Yup (Grandville) says:

    Imagine my surprise this morning. No snow(expected), but no frozen precip anywhere! Bwahahahahah! Let me guess, the bubble dry slot was in full effect last night?

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Indeed it was! Unreal…

  45. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I thought it was supposed to snow in West Michigan. Now it is like, “what will be the cause of us not getting snow this time…” I realize now that is the attitude our GRR NWS crew have. “Let us explain what will be the limiting factor for snow…”

    I really do have to all them out though. I woke up briefly after 3:30 and decided to check out the weather. The radar clearly showed precip. coming to an end and temps. still above freezing, yet they continued the WWA and said the mix will still occur, etc. It was obvious THEN that this was not WWA material. Do they work? Did they even look at the radar? Take your eyes off the beloved EURO and look out the window, gentlemen. It is like they have just given up on forecasting…

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Agreed 100%!

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        :) Here is another example: they just updated the forecast an hour ago and basically have the heaviest snow north of Muskegon. That is the exact OPPOSITE of what the most recent models like the NAM and GFS show….as well as one can see from looking at the radar down south. Gentlemen, place your finger on the computer screen and follow the path of how the precip. is moving.

        I am glad they are not calling for much. That means we have our best chance of snow for the winter.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          THANK YOU, Mr. Bill Marino! As soon as I started reading the update that EXPLAINED why and how things were happening, I knew it was you.

      2. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        (((((((Shaking my hand and chuckling))))) Ice? Snow? WHERE!? This was cause for a WWA? Oh well go about my day.

        1. Haanstar says:

          I changed all my plans after the advisory. Fail

  46. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Just checked outside here. Temp. is now 31 degrees with a thin layer of ice on the car.

  47. Geneo says:

    Well mother nature was good to us with no ice.

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