Least Snow through 1/14

January 15th, 2013 at 8:20 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   (Sub-Zero) Pansy blooming in Jenison last Friday (1/11).  The picture is from Bob at ReportIt.   I think (the data was just left to me here in the Tracking Center) this data comes from Bill Marino at the GRR NWS (or maybe Andy S.).  In any case, thanks.  Least snow thru 1/14:  1906  – 7.2″, 1932 – 7.7″, 1947 – 7.9″, 1949 – 8.6″, 2013 – 9.6″.  In 2008, we had 36.9″ thru 1/17, but managed to get to 107″ by March 27.   Also, schools closed in Arizona because the temperature got below freezing.   The 6-10 Day Outlook looks pretty chilly.  The 8-14 is still cool.

79 Responses to “Least Snow through 1/14”

  1. Can we do it, hit 107″ Hey Bill was that mostly LE or storms that year.

  2. GR. Gadfly says:

    When will WOOD TV accept that their decades old models of predicting weather no longer apply to current global climate changes?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The climate has always changed. We’ve had both palm trees and glaciers here in Grand Rapids, long before people started driving SUVs. Carbon emissions are dropping in the U.S. and are at a 20-year low: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UPYQlfJyGSo We have now gone longer than any period in history without a Category 3 or higher hurricane hit on the U.S. (Sandy and Isaac (peak wind 80 mph) were barely hurricanes! We had a very calm year for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, ice storms and snow storms in the U.S. Northern Hemisphere snowfall hit a December record last month (records go back to 1966). Antarctic ice set a record in September for maximum extent.

      1. Brad says:

        We had palm trees because…you know, that whole plate tectonics thingy?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          How did those polar bears survive??!!

        2. Brad says:

          Well, let’s see. North America was equatorial hundreds of millions of years ago, and polar bears likely evolved during the Pleistocene epoch, apparently anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few million years ago. So, polar bears survived by not existing.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          They seem to be doing well today: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868

          “As Nunavut government biologist Mitch Taylor observed in a front-page story in the Nunatsiaq News last month, “the Inuit were right. There aren’t just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears.”

          http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674new_nunavut_survey_shows_abundant_and_healthy_polar_bear_population/

          http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/7567_scientists_support_nunavut_polar_bear_hunters/

        4. Brad says:

          Here’s the modeled mid-century polar bear habitat:

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Polar_Bear_Habitat.png

          Some polar bear populations have increased, others have decreased, although we really lack systematically collected data to compare long-term trends:

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/12/23/Health-Environment-Science/Graphics/w-polarbear24b.jpg

          Few would argue the loss of sea ice is good for the polar bear.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          The point of my article was that the Inuit helicopter surveys are much more extensive and thorough that the brief and limited land surveys that are the basis for some of these dire predictions of declining polar bear populations.

          I laughed at your second link forecasting polar bear numbers 75 years from now! They’re short term forecasts have been wrong…there’s no reason to believe that the assumptions made in their long-range forecasts are not also incorrect…starting with the projected permanent loss of the Arctic icecap. HadCrut has been soooooo surprised that global temperatures have been essentially flat. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

        6. Brad says:

          Bill, my second link is an estimate of current populations. The first link was a projection of polar bear habitat in the future. There’s no reason to assume the projection will be wrong, and there is ample reason for concern about polar bears if the ice sheets decline and eventually disappear seasonally. This isn’t another talk radio rant about climate change.

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          And I’m saying the helicopter surveys that the Inuit have undertaken are a better method for tracking polar bear population. Since the polar bear population forecasts from the climate alarmists have been incorrect on the low side, it’s safe to say their models are incorrect and projecting them out 100 years would be like me doing a 100-day specific forecast.

          Again…hundreds of people have died this year from the cold and I have yet to see a polar bear that was proven to have died prematurely from “global warming”.

        8. big Daddy BC says:

          Wildlife biologists that find drowned polar bears get taken to the woodshed for having done so. What a shame.

          http://www.npr.org/2012/09/28/161987243/scientist-cleared-in-polar-bear-controversy

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          From the article at YOUR link: “”According to the inspector general’s report, investigators found that Monnett and Gleason used an incomplete database as their primary source of information to write the [polar bear] article, made conflicting statements to investigators regarding the writing and editing process and understated data in the manuscript.”

          “On Friday, the agency told Monnett that no action would be taken against him — except for an official reprimand for an unrelated matter, the improper release of internal government documents back in 2007 and 2008.”

          http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article4099460/

        10. big Daddy BC says:

          …Not from the article I linked.
          The article I linked read, “”We have confirmed that the [inspector general's] findings do not support a conclusion that the individual scientists involved engaged in scientific misconduct,” BOEM press secretary Theresa Eisenman said in a written statement.

          So what’s one to conclude? First, these scientists took lots of photos and documented many dead polar bears. They were smeared, but were ultimately found innocent. Use logic, Steffen. Less ice means less habitat. It’s not rocket science.

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          Well then, in no time at all you should be able to show me a picture and the story of a polar bear that died from “global warming”.

          http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2019291549_apuspolarbearscientist.html

          “Cruickshank called Monnett’s “misconduct very serious,” and said any future misconduct may lead to more severe discipline, including removal from federal service.”

          Read this: http://polarbearscience.com/2013/01/08/polar-bear-population-now-22600-32000-when-tallied-by-nation/

        12. big Daddy BC says:

          You lied when you said that rhetoric came from the article I posted. The supposed Polar Bear Science website features links to rightwing climate denier sites, so I’d question its integrity. The Seattle Times article you’re posting doesn’t say anything about these scientists being cleared of trumped up charges. You’re attempting, once again, to confuse and mislead your viewers. More lies.

          Wildlife biologists that find drowned polar bears get taken to the woodshed for having done so. What a shame.

          http://www.npr.org/2012/09/28/161987243/scientist-cleared-in-polar-bear-controversy

        13. Bill Steffen says:

          Ah…anyone who disagrees with you is “right-wing”. An easy dismissal for someone that can’t respond with fact. Rarely, a polar bear does drown. Rarely, a human will drown. It has not been proven that a polar bear has died from “global warming”. It’s easy to see that hundreds of people are dying from the cold: http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/26/cold-weather-across-europe-asia-kills-hundreds/ It’s easy to see that carbon emissions in the U.S. are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UPnsEPJyGSo It’s easy to see that global temperatures (even with the “adjustments”) have flatlined:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.

          Even “Handcuffs” Hansen admits “global temperature has been flat for the last decade”.

          Global Warming…as real as Manti T’eo’s girl friend!

        14. big Daddy BC says:

          I guess the real question is why you continually demonize scientists and rely on political sites for your support.

        15. Bill Steffen says:

          The real question is…when even the most RADICAL and VOCAL extremists like “Handcuffs” Hansen, who’s been arrested TWICE are FORCED by the obvious data to back off their extreme position…why are you so blinded by your political extremism that you can’t see the obvious and admit that the global temperatures are steady and haven’t been warming for a decade. Time for you to back to ranting about Emergency Managers!!

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.

          Check it out right now on Dr. Judith Curry’s blog: http://judithcurry.com/2013/01/16/hansen-on-the-standstill/#more-10934

      2. Robert (Plainwell) says:

        Bill you know that Brad and the like don’t like facts. It goes against what they believe.

        1. Brad says:

          Stop projecting, dude.

      3. Judy says:

        There you go spouting facts again….LOVE IT!!!!! And if someone wants to argue, tell them that they are contributing more to global warming by increasing their CO2 emmissions from their mouths!

        1. big Daddy BC says:

          Thanks, Judy. You’re right, he’s nothing but a wind bag.

  3. Brent Utter says:

    Bill,

    I own/operate Quality Lakeshore Landscape in Holland. Was wondering what your showing for snow fall in Holland currently? I am pretty sure we have received less than G.R. :(

    Thanks,
    Brent

  4. Nathan says:

    Bill, I like how you said several inches of snow is still a possibility in GR, even though most of the LE will fall to the SW of us. Well put, I agree!

  5. So we need 97.4″ of snow or 1.35″ for the next 71 days to make 107″ can it be done.
    what you think Fixxer sound good to ya.

  6. Turbo says:

    Bill, what are your thoughts on snow and cold for February? What is average snow fall for February?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Snowfall in recent years has trended upward in February. We had 16.2″ last year, 38.2″ in 2011, 24.8″ in 2010, 10″ in 2009 and 41.6″ in 2008. I think February depends on whether we can hang onto enough cold air to keep most of the precipitation as snow instead of rain. Many of the same factors that were present last winter have been present this winter (Cold PDO, Warm AMO, La Nada). We’ve had more snow that last year throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere – just not here. Average snowfall for February is a touch over 12 inches.

      1. Nathan says:

        I know Grand Rapids doesn’t get as much snow with NW winds, but will we still see a good six inches of snow?

  7. Chad/Roosevelt park says:

    Early spring Bill?

  8. Allendale says:

    Still staying optimistic for the L.E for next week. Just watched WZZMs forecast too to get their opinion on what is going to happen as well and George is calling for plenty of snow to shovel and plow and didn’t say anything about it being for lakeshore/sw corner of the state. Don’t think he would of said that if he was only talking about the SW corner of the state…So who knows!

  9. Brad (Lawrence) says:

    Well, I live in the SW corner of the state and am hoping for some LE snow. I would like to go snowboarding on natural snow on our local slopes. I haven’t been out this year yet as I hate boarding/skiing on man made snow. C’mon Bill, send us some good LE snow down here.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      On the contrary, I think the man made snow is much more slick than the natural snow. Just my personal experiences.

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Don’t they also groom it after a fresh snowfall? Just curious, since I’ve never been to any local slopes after a decent snowfall.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yes, most slopes are groomed daily, until you get farther north, where there are wooded ski at your own risk areas. Those are the most fun.

  10. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Lol at TWC for calling the 3-6″ of expected snow in the Northeast a “significant snow event” for them.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Also, lol at Dallas for having a snow day after receiving as much snow as we received Monday morning.

      1. bobcat says:

        Just my guess.. Dallas doesn’t have the salt trucks ready to go at any moment like we do here in the north. Any precipitation in freezing temps in Texas could cause some major problems…

        1. Jill C. says:

          They (Dallas County) actually did a pretty good job this morning getting most of the bridges and overpasses treated.

          Freezing precipitation is not as rare in North Texas as it is in the Houston area and southwards. Parts of West Texas get snow pretty frequently in the winter.

        2. bobcat says:

          Then why the snow day?

        3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          From the video I saw, they barely had enough to even see on the ground. Roads were just wet.

  11. Tyler says:

    We have mostly bare ground in Escanaba yet! It is unreal. Only one year I can think of where we had no snow cover this late and that was 2003. That year we had no snow tell the first part of February. That year we got alot of snow in February and it was bitter cold the entire month and it was bitter cold tell Mid March! Then we had a spring thaw but the first week of April it got bitter cold again and we had our biggest snow storm of that winter with a foot of snow!

  12. Todd In Nunica says:

    325 days since i last plowed 2″ of snow……………and counting……..

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      We haven’t had to plow our driveway, or even pick up a snow shovel for that matter since the 2010-2011 winter.

  13. Mr. Negative says:

    Enjoy the good times until this weekend. Cold settles in for several weeks, lake Effect snow sets-up for the same amount of time, and lo and behold, West Michigan ends up with our average snowfall amounts. It’s simple…those of us old enough to know better…do.

    1. Jack says:

      Thank- You ….. Mr. Negative…. LIKE…AGREE.!!!!!!!!! ;-)

  14. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Tonight’s 00Z GFS = the best run for snow lovers so far all winter. Now lets hope for more of a WNW, than a NW wind next week!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Haven’t looked yet, hope your right. Lots of time left for any margin of error.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s directly contributed to………………….
      Actually its not.

  15. Scott (west olive) says:

    I think bdbc is on to something Mr.S, it all started with the building of the plant that made the model A lol

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      If only we went back to living in caves. Then Mother Nature would like mankind and she wouldn’t bring hurricanes or tornadoes or heat waves or droughts. It’s all the fault of Suburbans and incandescent light bulbs….and Bush.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Being an outdoorsman my entire life, I think I could make due.

        1. Jack says:

          HECK YES BRIAN…. Me 2… CUE: A Country Boy Can Survive: 25th Anniversary Remix – Video Detective
          ► 4:24► 4:24
          http://www.videodetective.com/…country-boy-can-survive…/...
          Jan 9, 2012
          A Country Boy Can Survive: 25th Anniversary Remix (2006). Performer(s): Hank Williams JR …
          ENJOY,,,,,

        2. Skot says:

          Hey Jack !!! Dig this!!!!! Perfect !!!!
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGO8snK98l0

      2. Irish coffee says:

        Outspoken Libs have all the freedom to live in caves…or like the Amish, but instead they prefer to live like hypocrites and yet seek to control the masses who don’t ascribe to their nature ABOVE humankind theology.

        1. Brad says:

          Facts please…

        2. Irish coffee says:

          Brad- Hi! Fact: Al Gore talks incessantly about dire consequences of carbon/greenhouse gases destroying our planet vis-a-vis “climate change” …then continues on his double-standard way of life spewing more carbon-based emissions into the atmosphere than my family of 6 + a few more redneck families combined…;)

        3. big Daddy BC says:

          Watts is a nobody with a blog. Not science.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Anthony Watts blog was voted “Best Science Blog” twice! He’s also had 136,717,983 page views on his blog. If you haven’t seen it, check it out here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/ and decide for yourself. And check out this site: http://www.surfacestations.org/ You can see dozens of weather stations that have been corrupted by recent urban heating like these: http://www.surfacestations.org/odd_sites.htm Here’s a favorite of mine. The weather station was moved to an asphalt parking lot: http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=12970

        5. big Daddy BC says:

          Berkeley Earth pulled all the questionable stations out of the database, reworked it, and got the same results. Watts may get lots of hits from people like you, but it’s only because he’s feeding into your fantasy. Bloggy or not, the dude is an uneducated boob.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          And here’s what Dr. Judith Curry of the BEST group at Berkeley as said about global temperatures:

          Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’. (link here: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html)

          She also said: “‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’ (link here: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz2IHkyR0Zd)

          Rememeber she was a member of the BEST group team that you just cited.

          Unrelated…bet you haven’t seen this: http://credo.stanford.edu/

        7. big Daddy BC says:

          My God, more outdated crap about Curry. Get some new material, old man.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          This is as current (and revealing) as you can get:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.

          Wow, even the most rabid “Handcuffs Hansen is runnin’ for the tall grass!! Love it!!

      3. Judy says:

        Too funny! I notice that the global warming advocates have never blamed over-population as a cause of global warming and proposed population control. The benefits that modern life have given us have contributed to the increase in the population. More people = more CO2 emmissions (not only due to our materialism, but also from breathing). Not only would population control reduce CO2 emmissions, it would also reduce the strain on our environment.

        1. Brad says:

          Judy, do you eat oil? Ever heard of the carbon cycle? There’s a reason “global warming advocates” (the scientifically literate) do not discuss breathing.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          “Scientifically literate?” Hardly – then why don’t any of you wish to debate or share mutually in a public forum? Can you imagine Dr. Pelkie vs. Al Gore?

          Did the “scientifically literate” – (so worthy of our thanks and esteem) predict this: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UPdJwvJyGSo

          Uh, no…they predicted this: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html We just set a December record for snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere.

          In fact people that you would have considered “scientifically literate” have been open-minded enough to see that the predictions of the climate profiteers are not working out:

          http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2f4cc62e-5b0d-4b59-8705-fc28f14da388

          http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

          http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite

          Say NO to “skyrocketing” utility rates forced on the poor and middle class…say NO to $9 a gallon “European level” gasoline. It wouldn’t budge global temperature and it would hurt a lot of hard-working people.

  16. big Daddy BC says:

    One of the best and worst thing GWB did was ruin the US economy. When production went down so did CO2 waste. The article you posted talks about natural gas, the recession, and ALTERNATIVE ENERGY as lowering greenhouse gas production. Excellent. GOBAMA.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      CO2 isn’t “waste”…it’s plant food!

      Hundreds of people are dying from the cold…HUNDREDS…it’s probably thousands by now. You don’t care about them…but you pretend to care about polar bears when you can’t find a single polar bear that can be proved to have died from “global warming”.

      Michigan went from the lowest half of the states in unemployment to #1 during the Granholm administration. What we were doing wasn’t working relative to ALL the other states. We were at the bottom of ALL the states…he very bottom of the heap! Now, we’re the Michigan economy is the 6th fastest growing of all the states and we’re experiencing the 9th fastest growth of per capita income. The private sector has added 177,000 jobs in Michigan (and that’s people who pay taxes!) and finally Michigan’s population has stopped declining. We’re moving forward, passing the regressive, repressive policies of people like you who want to force “skyrocketing” utility rates and $9 “European level” gasoline prices on the poor and middle class. We want reliable and reasonably priced energy, choice in education for minority children in inner cities and justice for the goons who destroyed the catering equipment of a poor African-American hot dog vendor and called him racial slurs.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        Amen to choice in schools! Unfortunately elitist liberal beaurocrats choose private schools due to $$$$ they earn via taxpayers, yet force public schools on the poor(they just say NO to vouchers).That’s what power and privilege does to many of our elected officials(on BOTH sides)- corrupts and leads to a sense of ‘entitlement’/special privileges.See: all the armed schools + guards around so-called anti-gun folks.People like Boxer, Moore,Obama, et;al LOVE having protection(armed) for THEIR children/families w/ all kinds of conceal carry guards surrounding them even in absence of overt threats(just in case)which is fine …but…meanwhile Joe & Karen six-pack are told guns are evil and need to be highly restricted/regulated (along w/ ammunituion limits) & 20,000 laws on the books are NOT enough! This another in long list of to-do for Obama’s “FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE” sans hope…next, let’s work on getting home ownership DOWN, renters UP = less private property owners….then we can work on limiting speech/religion freedoms…ending eventually in nearly all entities becoming public(gov’t) dominated/controlled- including, but not limited to:education, property rights, energy, healthcare, agriculture, etc. 1984 30 years DELAYED not denied!!;)

  17. big Daddy BC says:

    Hey, I compliment GWB for ruining the economy and reducing pollution and you idiots go on a rant about Granholm and Cyber Schools? LOL Get some new material, Teabaggers.

    Did you hear that 2012 was one of the ten hottest years on record. They all occurred since 2000. 2012 WAS the official hottest year for the US. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. BTW, did you watch the state of the state and see that Snyder’s raising even more taxes on the middle class??? This time under the guise of road repair. LOL Don’t worry though Bill, you guys in the top 1% won’t pay a dime.

    1. big Daddy BC says:

      4th coolest of the hottest ten in recorded history!! LOL That’s rich. You’re funny.

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Did you just post a link to aljazeera?? The Angry Old White Man Consortium is going to revoke your charter!! LOL

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