Winter’s Coldest
January 16th, 2013 at 9:10 pm by Kyle Underwood under Weather
Severe cold is set to descend on the Northern Plains and Great Lakes this weekend. West Michigan will be shielded from the coldest air thanks to Lake Michigan–which still has surface water temps near 40º. On the windward side of the lakes, temperatures will plunge well below zero, for the first time this year in many places like Milwaukee and Des Moines. In fact, Minneapolis will likely break their streak of four years without a day’s high reading 0º or colder. The cold air mass will be dragged down by an Alberta Clipper this weekend.
ECMWF forecast lows Tuesday morning will range from 10 above to -30 across the Western Great Lakes. (weatherbell.com)
Across West Michigan, this air mass will bring us the coldest daytime highs in two years, going back to Januray 23, 2011 when the high in Grand Rapids was 12º, low -9º. With relatively warm water in Lake Michigan, a sub-zero reading in Grand Rapids is unlikely (we didn’t have any sub-zero readings last winter) but we do have a good chance at sub-zero temps in rural areas away from Lake Michigan.
In addition to snow from the weekend clipper, the recipe for lake-effect snow is assembling with the trailing cold front. The warmth of the lake contrasted with the cold of this air mass could give us the biggest lake effect snows so far this season. Lake snows are finicky; wind direction is critical. Such fine details will get worked out once the cold front nears. Prevailing winds appear to be west-northwest early next week turning more northwesterly giving all areas west of U.S. 131 a good chance at lake snow, especially south of the Sable Points.
This cold snap will be prolonged:
GFS temperature anomalies (map in ºC) for Jan. 25- Feb.1. Temperatures will stay 4º to 8ºF cooler than seasonal norms for Lower Michigan, and almost 20ºF cooler than normal across Northern Minnesota for the last week of January. (weatherbell.com)
Here is the 8-day forecast at woodtv.com
Meteorologist and executive weather producer at WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids. Seals of Approval from AMS and NWA.
hopefully a good winter storm to kick out the cold air
I am new to the area, can someone enlighten me as to what the best wind flow is for LES in Wyoming? I’m assuming WNW, or W.
Welcome aboard! Typically, most of the immediate suburbs surrounding Grand Rapids (Wyoming, Walker, Grandville, Kentwood, etc.) benefit from a West Wind or a WNW flow. NW flows result in the most snow going from Holland and to the South, but bands of snow frequently come in plenty far enough to give the Wyoming area at least some snow. NNW would favor mostly the extreme SW portion of the state. SW flowing Lake Effect is also good for areas along and north of M-6 (roughly), so there are typically 3 pretty good patterns for decent LE in GR. You were basically on the money when you assumed WNW or W.
Yup, those are probably the best for you. Northwest can bring you snows too.
Bill, the 00Z NAM is looking less than impressive with the clipper on Sunday. It appears to be waaaaaaaay north. I wonder if thesis a sign, that we once again just get clipped by cold?
Cold is only going to be here for 2-3 days, and it’s not even that cold. Statistically equal to high temps in the low to mid 40′s for this time of year – which we’ve had plenty of this winter.
Now if we saw cold that was statistically equal to the record temps we saw (25+ degrees above average), now that would be COLD!
Boy, the forecast here sure sounds night and day compared to what I heard tonight!
Granted, it’s Detroit, but WXYZ is predicting:
25 Sunday, 20 Monday, 19 Tuesday, and then back to 25 Wednesday as we “warm up the rest of the week.” And zero big snow storms on the horizon.
This quick shot of cold air before warming back up is now also supported by the CPC who put all of Michigan back in average temps Jan 24-30:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
ROCKYROCKFORD….I just got all the Paczki’s ready for our airtic storm coming!!IT’s going to get below fizzer for days!!! Stay tuned INDYY….
PACZKI..CUE : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-jYyFPj_50. ENJOY….INDY..