Cold Thursday Night

January 17th, 2013 at 4:44 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    Thurs Night:  Check out the snow at noon in Tuscaloosa, AL.  4″ of new snow in Cullman, Alabama with 6″ at Ackerman, Mississippi.  Heavy snow in E. TN and W. NC right now.  Thundersnow in SE TN, NW GA and now in VA.   This time a snowstorm is moving from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, far N. Georgia, up thru the Smokies where 12-18″ could fall, thru Virginia and into Delaware and New Jersey.  And the snow repellent is still working in Muskegon!    Just scattered flurries this evening/overnight.  Temperatures teens inland to low 20s at the lake overnight.  Windy tomorrow with snow likely north of I-96 and a chance of flurries south of I-96.  There could be a couple of inches north of Newaygo Co. and an inch down as far as the Kent Co. border.  Slick roads are possible during the midday-afternoon north of a line from Holland to St. Johns.  If you plan on being out late Saturday evening/night, stay up with the latest forecasts.  I want to highlight the possibility of strong winds Saturday night especially.  We could easily see gusts to 40 mph inland and 50 mph at Lake Michigan as the Arctic front comes thru, along with a couple hours of moderate snowfall.  Roads could get slick and the combination of wind, snow, falling temperatures freezing up the roads quickly and poor visibility could make for some tough travel.  One model takes the wind at Muskegon up to 40 mph, with the temperature dropping 11 degrees in an hour!  That’s probably overdone, but it could make for a quick freeze-up and some icy roads.  This would occur around 11 PM – 1 AM, so it may not be that bad early Saturday evening.  The models continue to show very cold air, with daytime temperatures struggling to the mid teens Monday/Tuesday.  I still think most models are too low on snowfall from lake-effect.  The potential is there for +12″ snowfalls over 3 days in the best lake-effect bands with 18-24″ drifts.  All areas will see some snow and the ground is going to be white over all of Lower Michigan.          ALSO:  Thursday AM snowcover:  trace G.R., 1″ Lansing, Baldwin, Scottville, 3″ Cadillac, Gaylord, 8″ Newberry, 9″ Marquette, 14″ Grand Marais (6″ new overnight), 16″ Atlantic Mine.   A Flood Watch continues for the Muskegon River due to an ice jam in Mecosta Co.  There’s a Gale Watch for Lake Michigan.

For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. You can check out the S. Haven Lighthouse, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station by the Holland Channel, the Muskegon beach (when the wind is in knots – kts. – multiply by 1.15 to get mph), and the beach at Michigan City, Indiana. Snow cover as of 1/11 AM: 1″ Big Rapids, 2″ Baldwin and Houghton Lake, 4″ Cadillac and Lake City, 6″ Gaylord, 7″ Newberry, 8″ S. Ste. Marie and Grand Marais, 12″ Marquette. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s a few pictures of the last snowstorm. Here’s current U.S. temperatures.

A Flood Watch has been issued for the Muskegon River upstream of the Rogers Dam. An ice jam has caused river levels to rise and there is some water in yards on Riverside Drive (east side of the pond upstream from the dam).

206 Responses to “Cold Thursday Night”

  1. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Let it snow! I wanna see at least a foot here.

    1. fixxxer says:

      And i want to see some sun & 80. Neither is going to happen right now.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Won’t happen this summer either….. :P

        1. fixxxer says:

          Says who?

        2. fixxxer says:

          We are due for a cooler summer but ill believe it when i see it matt. The pattern is unchanged and will remain so.

        3. Katie in Kentwood says:

          Well, we’re supposed to. I’ve learned to just enjoy every season. There’s no point in loating the weather, because there’s nothing we can do to change it.

      2. Katie in Kentwood says:

        Just wait Fixxxer, all in due time :) Michigan does have 4 seasons.

        1. fixxxer says:

          Sometimes we do.

        2. Katie in Kentwood says:

          Well, we’re supposed to. I’ve learned to just enjoy every season. There’s no point in loating the weather, because there’s nothing we can do to change it.

  2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Big probs to Bill and the rest of the meteorologists at WoodTV 8 for being the first channel to forecast/mention high temps in the teens for early next week.

    1. Brad says:

      Let’s wait until it happens…meanwhile, who will be the first station to predict the 50s and 60s that will follow next week’s “cold snap?”

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I will – for next April.

        1. fixxxer says:

          Never say never bill. For all we know we could warm up like last year.

    2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      props*

  3. Jack says:

    OFF SUBJECT…RIP Pauline Phillips… A CUE in YOUR HONOR : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2ccC4aULow
    :-(

      1. Jack says:

        Play the Cue Fixxxer, The Answer Lies There….. Duh…

      2. Jack says:

        Yo..Fixxxer..Cue: John Prine – Dear Abby (Old Grey Whistle 1973) – YouTube
        ► 3:40► 3:40
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2ccC4aULow
        RIP. :-(

  4. Steelie says:

    Good Day,

    Sorry… still not on board for some sweeping shift and or big snow, for now. Of course we will know more after Sunday’s model runs, but… I currently see a very brief (two day) Arctic air mass only to warm back up to the lower 30′s rather quickly. More importantly is how “juicy” the air will be in terms of having enough humidity to actually create a decent LES event. Hmmm…

    Steelie

  5. Nathan says:

    Ok so where is this lake effect snow going to fall?

  6. SW Kent says:

    Modification to the forecast.
    Looking more and more like a zonal flow setting up later next week.
    Expect very cold and occasional snowy conditions Sunday PM thru Wed.
    Lake snow bands to move around thru the period which should limit one area from getting a big dump.
    Holland 6-8 inches
    GR 3-5
    Most snow will melt next weekend as southerly flow comes in which may include rain.
    The following week in zonal flow should produce rather mild and quiet weather.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I agree with your first few comments, however we will be seeing cold air and snowstorms next weekend and the following week! Get Ready!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    SNOW, COLD and more SNOW for the next 6 weeks straight. GET READY people!

    1. John (Holland) says:

      I like the sound of that, Rocky!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes, John there will skeptics and non believers out there, however they will be 100% WRONG as WINTER is about ready to unload!

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    For those skeptics and winter weather haters out there, you will be in for rude awakening next week. BLIZZARD conditions and AT LEAST 6 inches of SNOW for GR! I hope we see heavy SNOW with wind chills below zero! Bring it on!

    1. fixxxer says:

      And for anyone who believes anything more than 2 days out i laugh HARD at you!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Go back under your ROCK fixxxer. You will be crying next week!!

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        fixxxer says:

        January 17, 2013 at 7:50 pm

        We are due for a cooler summer but ill believe it when i see it matt. The pattern is unchanged and will remain so.

        1. fixxxer says:

          Well at least your good at quoting people mike. Your point being what? Just becuase i pointed out the long range says it “could” be above average doesnt mean it will happen. Keep trying, someday you will learn how to properly insult someone.

        2. Katie in Kentwood says:

          LOL!

  9. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    18Z GFS looks like junk for us… The lake effect coming up looks less impressive…then 40/rain…back to boring and cold….back to 40/ rain….. Same thing…… Over…..and……..over…

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Throw the 18Z GFS out the window. It is not picking up the the lake enhancement or the proper wind directions. As we get closer to Sunday the models will start looking better and better and there will plenty of cold air for next weekend and beyond! Mark it down!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I just looked at the 18Z and you are correct it is underplaying the lake effect, however I see at least three potential SNOWSTORMS on the mid and long range 18Z!! Get Ready!!

  10. ptmartin says:

    I think the air will be too dry and cold for LES! This is just crazy! I’ve got 3 girls that want to sled down a hill just once this year!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You will be sledding by Monday or Tuesday of next week!

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Perfect :)

  11. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Pretty impressive thundersnow right now in Virginia. It’s crazy how wet the snow is down there with temps between 32° and 35°. Mike Sidel picked up a handful of snow, and squeezed the snow and the water just drained out of the snow. He compared it to milking a cow lol.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Wow…that does not sound like an easy-to-shovel type of snow!

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        That’s a “wait and melt” type of snow

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Good point. Growing up in the east, they don’t do that. They shovel the second it stops… I think they’re scared of law suits.

        2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          True, I forgot about that. Living on a dirt road, we don’t have that problem although we are usually the first to have our driveway cleared anyways.

  12. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Rocky, you are a pretty persistent dude. Once you believe something, you stick to it. Have you considered politics? Too many guys get swayed too easily….

    1. fixxxer says:

      I think he should consider prozac. ;)

    2. Scott (west olive) says:

      What? He’s either golfing or no snow pattern.

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No politics for me, however I could do a heck of a lot better than most of the get nothing done, no compromise bums in Washington!

  13. Mindy ( Mason MI ) says:

    Love all this HYPE!!!! Next couple of Days, WINTER STORM WARNINGS for 1 inch or less of Snow!!! LOL !!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol…

  14. Scott (west olive) says:

    Pretty good gusts of wind here by the lake.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Quite breezy here as well. I checked out that wind map at the top of the thread, pretty cool.

  15. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Always entertaining to read the select few self proclaimed “weather forecasters” pouring on the hype here on the blog. Of course it’s just as entertaining watching their forecasts crash and burn 3 days later and the mass disappointment it always brings. Anyways, I call any winter that is heading into late January with no snow on the ground, and pretty much no snow at all the past 3 months a “Win”. Far better than the years it starts snowing in mid-October, and keeps piling on till March. As for next week, yup, it’s looking colder. Of course several days later its looking warmer, so everything will melt again. That should be a win for everyone, people that want snow for a few days, and people that don’t.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      WINTER is about ready to hit and hit hard, so for those of you non winter lovers, get READY. You may see COLD and SNOW for 6 straight weeks. BLIZZARD conditions coming starting this Sunday! The FUN is about to begin!

    2. mr. negative says:

      Well put Barry…snow does not a winter make.

  16. Bnoppe(Albion) says:

    Every winter in Mich you can almost Gurantee 2-3 advisory snows and 2-3 “warning” type events, folks things are just about to get started a couple of advisory snows the next 2 weeks and then the big daddy! On 2/4/12. Keep it classy your friend Joe B

    1. fixxxer says:

      Lol at anything joe.b says.

  17. Deb says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong (nicely I’m not as up on weather systems as most of you) but I thought I heard the phrase before that “It’s too cold to snow” Something about the cold air “dries” out the snowflakes? If I am at least half right, could that happen with this system next week? I’m not a fan of the cold and snow.

    1. Tom (Wyoming) says:

      No, it can never be too cold to snow. Here’s an explanation from Tom Skilling…

      http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-01-14/news/ct-wea-0116-asktom-20110114_1_snow-antarctica-light

      1. Deb says:

        Thanks! That make sense. At least we won’t be shoveling the heavy wet stuff.

        1. Cort S. says:

          The operative idea behind the phrase “too cold to snow” is that, when the snow crystal growth layer in the clouds gets below a certain temperature, the types of snow crystals that are formed are not your typical 6-pointed snowflake. They become smaller, and take on different shapes which do not accumulate efficiently. Ideally, you want the portion of the cloud that is growing the snow to be in the neighborhood of -15 Celsius.

          But to complicate things further, moisture is also an important factor for growing large 6-pointed snowflakes, along with temperature.

          I was able to find a bit more information here, along with a chart showing some of the different types of snow crystals there can be:
          http://ryanhanrahan.com/tag/snow-growth-zone/

  18. INDY says:

    WOW PATTERN CHANGE COMING WE HAVE NOT HAD THIS COLD OF WEATHER SINCE 2009 THE LAKES ARE READY TO DUMP A FIZZER LOAD OF SNOW ON US BILL IS READY!!!! INDYY…

  19. Stacsh says:

    Wow, this blog use to be fun to comment on. But indy and rocky have ruined it for me. So wierd.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      WINTER IS COOOOOOOOMING!!!

      No it’s not!!!!

      MAYBEEEEEEE IT IS!!!!!

      NO SNOW PATTERN!!!!

      Wait! SNOW PATTERN!!!!

      ARE YOU READY!!!!!????

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        ROCKY!!!! ARE YOU READY!!!!!

        NOOOOOO SNOW PATTERN!!!!

        fixxxer: Will you too just shot up already??? I have a headache and my family is sick and my hand keeps typing on Bill’s blog and it is cold out and there are no thunderstorms and I hate my job and public schools suck….

        Rocky: Thanks for listening….

        1. Chad says:

          Well said thank you.

    2. INDY says:

      Are u a new bloger ??? lot to learn I guess!!! INDYY…..

  20. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    So, a little forecasting time……

    Do you think we will be able to cash in on some WAA (Warm Air Advection) snows that form along the warm front? I think we may, with some lake enhancement. I am a bit cautious though, as the lake has oddly ruined all our chances this year.

  21. Sprites says:

    00z gfs appears much more favorable for LES than the 18z. Good news

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Several things look better on it….the LES, no big rain at the end of the week, a potential snowstorm at the end of the month followed by more Arctic air. Hopefully that is the general pattern and doesn’t change as much as some people change their user names…

      1. Jack says:

        Yup,Thee OLE JEM Model,Looks To Be Breeeezing Right Along…Right on CUE: JJ Cale – Call Me The Breeze HD – YouTube
        ► 4:52► 4:52
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51Sy59kw2Bg

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