Friday PM

January 18th, 2013 at 3:46 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    Saturday:  Breezy and relatively mild today.  I’m looking thru the new data.  The European is colder for late week next week and has all snow here next Thurs. night/Friday.   If you plan on being out late Saturday evening/night, stay up with the latest forecasts. I want to highlight the possibility of strong winds Saturday night especially. We could easily see gusts to 40 mph inland and 50 mph at Lake Michigan as the Arctic front comes thru, along with some light snow.  Again the models don’t print out much.  The NAM has steady winds of 26 mph for G.R. for a few hours and a steady 30 mph for Muskegon.  The GFS has winds up to a steady 35 mph at Lake Michigan.   Roads could get slick and the combination of wind, snow, falling temperatures freezing up the roads quickly and poor visibility could make for some challenging travel.  This would occur around 11 PM – 3 AM, so it may not be that bad early Saturday evening.    The GFS has steady light snow from Sunday pretty much thru Tues. night.    ALSO:  Friday AM snowcover: trace G.R., 1″ Lansing, Big Rapids 2″ Baldwin, Scottville, 4″ Cadillac, Gaylord, 9″ Newberry,, Marquette, 15″ Grand Marais, 16″ Atlantic Mine. There’s a Gale Watch for Lake Michigan.    From the NWS FRI.  morning discussion:  “SNOW SHOWER INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 10K FEET OR MORE. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT SOUTH HAVEN LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR HEAVY SNOW…”

For current Michigan weather observations and wind speeds, click here. You can check out the S. Haven Lighthouse, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station by the Holland Channel, the Muskegon beach (when the wind is in knots – kts. – multiply by 1.15 to get mph), and the beach at Michigan City, Indiana. Snow cover as of 1/11 AM: 1″ Big Rapids, 2″ Baldwin and Houghton Lake, 4″ Cadillac and Lake City, 6″ Gaylord, 7″ Newberry, 8″ S. Ste. Marie and Grand Marais, 12″ Marquette. Here’s NAM model snowfall thru 84 hours, the GFS snowfall thru 120 hours and the HPC snowfall predictions. Here’s WOOD-TV Interactive Radar, looping radar. Check out the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map, Storm total rainfall, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning Marantha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime). Here’s Lake Michigan water temperatures. Here’s storm total rainfall for W. Michigan and E. Michigan. Here’s data from the mid-lake buoy (not available in winter) and the Wind Map. And…here’s the 84-hour NAM snowfall amount forecast for W. Michigan and the 120-hour GFS snowfall amount forecast. Here’s local storm reports from Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Eastern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Check out these webcams and the Snowman Cam from Gaylord. Here’s a few pictures of the last snowstorm. Here’s current U.S. temperatures.

A Flood Watch has been issued for the Muskegon River upstream of the Rogers Dam. An ice jam has caused river levels to rise and there is some water in yards on Riverside Drive (east side of the pond upstream from the dam).

Also, Sydney, Australia had their hottest day ever yesterday.

248 Responses to “Friday PM”

  1. INDY says:

    Hey Fizzer u ever get sleep????? INDY takes good pills when he needs sleep and a sprite bath……INDYY….

    1. fixxxer says:

      Of course i sleep. Not till about 2am though. Always been a nightowl.

  2. big Daddy BC says:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/andrews/australia-heat-bakes-melbourne-adelaide-sydney-is-next/4320296

    “Extreme heat in Australia forced the government’s weather bureau to upgrade its temperature scale, with new colours on the climate map to reflect new highs forecast next week.”

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-australia.html

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The Aussies are having fixx’s dream summer.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Hopefully this summer will be another hot one too.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          The Aussies should have upgraded their temperature scale a long time ago. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalextremes.html The Australian record is 128F way back in 1889! The modern record is 123F in 1960!

        2. big Daddy BC says:

          Ridiculous. That’s one record. Hundreds more are falling this month.

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Australia’s had a couple of hot days, but much of the time temperatures have been near to slightly cooler than average. Sydney, Australia in the last week has had 3 days warmer than average, 3 days cooler than average and one day exactly average. You can look at monthly temperatures at Weather Underground and average temperatures at Accu-Weather (Professional).

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Global temperature this month +0.018 degree (average): http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

      Global temperatures flat for the past decade:

      “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.

      GISS temperatures flat: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

      HadCrut data shows the same thing: http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Bilder_Dateien/Frey_HansenNichtCO2/hansen_bild3.png

      CO2 emissions falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UPosBPJyGSo

      Hundreds dead from severe cold: http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/26/cold-weather-across-europe-asia-kills-hundreds/

      1. big Daddy BC says:

        Weather Bell is a the site of a rightwing activist. Next.

        http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/enso-global-temp-anom/201213.png
        Could anyone look at this bar graph and say the world isn’t getting warmer?

        How about this?
        http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201201-201212.gif

        HEAT RECORDS ARE FALLING WORLDWIDE. The Emperor isn’t wearing any cloths even if Exxon says he is.

        1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

          here you go bDBC.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          bigD – even your first link (of woefully “adjusted” temperatures) shows temperatures flat for the past decade. Here’s a NASA graph that shows the same thing: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif You’re about the only person on Earth who hasn’t acknowledged the obvious. Even James Hansen has had to backtrack:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

          Heat Records are NOT “falling worldwide”. It’s been colder than average over much of the globe…inc. most of Europe and Asia. Now the cold is coming here in the areas east of the Rockies.

          You can check worldwide record high and low temperatures here: http://coolwx.com/record/ Today, for example, I’m seeing just 2 worldwide record high temperatures and both stations have a record of less than 40 years.

  3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Channel 17′s futurecast looks good to me. Constant moderate to heavy snow for Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, and northern Berrien counties from Sunday evening through Tuesday. Also I see both channel 3 & 17 have decreased their temps for Tuesday to 13° & 14°, and channel 17° has a low of -2° where it could clear out Tuesday night.

  4. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Channel 13′s snowfall forecast model gives me…wait for it…2″ by Monday night. Their highest amount on the whole map was 4.6″ near South Haven. Every other channel predicts that much or more by Sunday night.

  5. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

    Just got back from skiing at Boyne Mountain today!

    Sydney shattered their hottest day EVER recorded with 115.7 degrees… wow!

    This arctic blast looks fairly ordinary to me, unless you’re west of 131. Low to mid 40′s tomorrow for Lower Michigan, a few days of cold, and then back to above normal temps again.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Above normal temps by when?

      1. Travis (Oxford, MI) says:

        NWS Detroit says by Thursday for me. GR should be similar.

        1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          Every local channel over here has mid 20′s for Thursday, and around 30 on Friday(down from yesterday’s forecast of 35). We might be cooler over here with the snow cover.

        2. Slimjim says:

          With wind the temps will be about the same on both sides of the state. One difference would be if the low next weekend is closer to the east side of the state that would make it some what warmer over there.
          Slimjim

    2. fixxxer says:

      Geez 115 is a bit to much for even me.

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        I worked 12 hours outside when the heat index was 108° last summer, and it was hard to make it through the day. I couldn’t imagine it being hotter than that.

        1. Slimjim says:

          I also worked out side last year on those. Days and while it was hot its also hard to work out side in the cold, in fact I would take the heat over the cold any day.
          Slimjim

        2. fixxxer says:

          I was sick during that heat wave in july so i was even more miserable. 85 and some sun is fine by me.

        3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          Heat doesn’t really bother me since I’m small framed, and skinnier. But I would much rather dress warm, and be outside in a blizzard with wind chills below 0°.

        4. Irish coffee says:

          I’m w/ Travis….went x-country skiing in Tug Hill wilderness when it was -36F(actual)w/ no wind..felt refreshing,w/ only sweatshirt +jacket and scarf….100 degree heat? no thanks, i’d rather swim w/ hungry sharks(Great White) w/ red, bloody meat strapped to my arms and legs.

      2. Jack says:

        Wow 115, that’s HOT…Listening To Jerry Reed : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9EJ0qXNJGg. HOT or Not ? ;-)

  6. Storm waning says:

    This is the end, this is the end my friends

    1. Jack says:

      THE END….hmmmmmmmmm… SPIN : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI38vPDCoao. BEATLES, Fab 4….. Enjoy !!!!! ;-)

  7. fixxxer says:

    Hmmm…no jordan or oklahoma deb. Now if we could get rid of rj. ;)

    1. Jack says:

      You missing jor-deb.. Aye Fix ?

      1. fixxxer says:

        I miss picking on them yes.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Did your bullying scare them off, fixxxy? :P

      I fully expect somebody with a name like “Tony from Guam” to get on here and yell at everybody for being mean to his/her cousin(s) from Ludington, Twin Lake, OKC, and wherever all the personalities live.

      1. Ryan (Algoma) says:

        Don’t forget Ann “Harbor”..

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Lol

    3. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Ya, haven’t heard Of Deb, Or Jordan in a while. Oh well. Turn up the heat fixxx, your gonna hate next week, as I hate mid July.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Here, here! Hate anything above 80…

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Me to, 70-80 is perfect.

        2. fixxxer says:

          Not me, 37 years in michigan and i still hate winter and cold. My body just doesnt seem to adapt to it. Besides i enjoy the nice summer nights.

        3. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Right, my body can’t adapt to the heat. Then the A/C suffers.

  8. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    00Z GFS gives us a possible 12-18 more hours of snow into Thursday now, and gives everyone a decent snowfall late Thursday into Friday.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Looks GREAT for next week and the like CRAP the following week. Obviously it can change.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Like :)

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      NAM seems to have the lake effect flow down much better than the GFS. It is highly doubtful that GR will receive more snow than Berrien County, but I guess anything is possible with lake effect.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Well, the GFS goes out further in time, so it is picking up on when the flow goes more westerly and gives snow to GR. The NAM only goes to 84 hours. If indeed the flow goes more westerly, that old shut the snow off in Berrien County.

        Also, essentially the NAM is showing heavier snow, considering it only goes out to 84.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        I think forecasts will have a much better handle on the LES come tomorrow evening. Hopefully several inches for everyone 131 to the west. Wind shifts, and upper air energy will be key.

      3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Either way I’m pretty content right now since I’m in area of the highest snowfall predicted. It sure helps being in a snowbelt area for NW, WNW, and W winds, so even if/when the winds change the snow should stay in my area.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Ya, you’re in a sweet spot. Lucky

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yeah, same here. We only really miss out if the winds are too northerly or too strong.

    2. John (Holland) says:

      NAM has Holland up to the 10 inch zone. Heck yes.

  9. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Huge warmup coming. GFS takes Chicago all the way up to the low 20′s by next weekend!!

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/292513598113210368/photo/1

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It actually has a warm up to near 40 the following week with an inch of rain. Hopefully that changes with the next run and is gone forever.

      1. Bruiseviolet says:

        You can say that again

      2. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Yeah, a couple runs ago it had that for the end of this week.

      3. Brian(Grandville) says:

        A couple days ago, that was the forecast for next Thursday. Now look. Constantly changing with each run. Does appear we are into a more winter like pattern finally.

        1. Jack says:

          CHANGES… CUE: David Bowie Changes with lyrics – YouTube
          ► 3:35► 3:35
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCgzX7vwlFk. PEACE !!

    2. big Daddy BC says:

      Maue is a rightwing activist, just like Bill Steffen. Don’t present any evidence from him as anything but political fodder.

      1. Robert (Plainwell) says:

        Maue is staking his career and reputation on this, are you?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          bigDaddy’s reputation is already shot. He’s a proven liar. He lied when he said that Romney was a polygamist. We corrected the lie. He has to lie, because he can’t win with the truth. He hides anonymously in the tall grass here on the blog (and other forums)…he runs to vote in online polls. He’s gotten desperate because he’s losing the war. None other than “Handcuffs” Hansen was forced to admit that global temperatures are flat:

          “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing. – James Hansen et al. (this is from Dr. Judith Curry’s blog).

          The people don’t want “skyrocketing” utility rates and $9 a gallon gasoline. They see that CO2 emissions are falling: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UPtL8vJyGSo Al Gore’s already sold out to big oil: http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2013/01/08/current-tv-staffers-rip-al-gore-for-sale-to-al-jazeera/

          BigDaddy gets more and more desperate as his house of cards collapses: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76dUF9Yn6Kk Woo Hoo!!

  10. Bill Steffen says:

    Where on Earth did you get 12% from??!! 73% of the Earth is covered by water…so at 12% you’re saying half the land area of the Earth is the U.S.!! LOL! You have to count the oceans! Australia is 1.49% of the Earth’s surface and the contiguous U.S. is 1.9% (not counting Alaska – which has been colder than average, so if you count Alaska, the U.S. hasn’t been so “hot”).

    Russian heat wave was natural causes: http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/natural-causes-drove-russian-heat-wave-study-finds/

    Studies found the European heat wave was caused by a strong anticyclone at both the surface and aloft, a decaying El Nino and an unusually active W. African Monsoon.

    The main point is that overall global temperatures have been flat for a decade. Even James Hansen has been dragged, screaming and kicking to reality:

    “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.

    And CO2 emissions have been dropping in the U.S. and are now at a 20-year low: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/08/in-a-surprise-co2-emissions-hit-20-year-low/1#.UPtL8vJyGSo

  11. JJP says:

    Snowing big time in Battle Creek.

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